Sam Bradford is a vast improvement at quarterback
Bradford's injury woes seemed to have caused many to forget just how superb he has played at times during his NFL career. In 2013 (his last season under center in St. Louis), Bradford ranked sixth in the league in vertical yards per attempt (a gauge of passing production on passes thrown 11 or more yards downfield) and fifth in stretch vertical yards per attempt (a production measurement for aerials thrown 20 or more yards downfield).
Keep in mind that Bradford posted these superb downfield totals while throwing to a pedestrian wide receiver corps that included
Tavon Austin,
Austin Pettis,
Chris Givens and
Brian Quick to go along with a tight end tandem of
Jared Cookand
Lance Kendricks. The Eagles' pass-catchers are every bit as good as this group and arguably even better, so Bradford should be able to replicate his top-level production here.
Bradford should also provide a significant upgrade in the bad decision rate (BDR) area. BDR is a statistic that tracks how often a quarterback makes a mental error that leads to a turnover opportunity for the opposing team. Upper-tier passers will end the season with a BDR of one percent or less. Average quarterbacks will post a BDR between one to two percent, while mediocre field generals will rack up a BDR of two percent or higher.
Bradford did a superb job in BDR in 2013 (0.7 percent) and had a solid showing in 2012 (1.7 percent). As long as he stays anywhere near either of these levels, it will be much better than the BDR rates posted last season by
Nick Foles or
Mark Sanchez, who both posted a 2.6 percent BDR in 2014. This should help to cut down the Eagles league-high 21 interceptions last season.
The makings of the best rushing attack in the NFL
The ground game is the key element in Kelly's offense, and the metrics show the Eagles could field one of the top rushing attacks in the league this year.
It starts with blocking. Last season the Eagles fared quite well in my good blocking rate (GBR) metric. GBR measures how often an offense gives its ball carriers good blocking (very roughly defined as not allowing the defense to disrupt a rush attempt) and the Eagles' 40.5 percent mark here ranked third.
That Philadelphia was able to do this despite using
seven different offensive line combinations last season speaks volumes for just how well Kelly's system can keep the ball moving on the ground even in less-than-perfect conditions. Better health here alone could put the Eagles into contention for the top GBR spot.
Philadelphia won't lack for running backs who can make the most of quality blocking.
DeMarco Murray's 8.9-yard good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) total ranked tied for 11th, but more importantly, he did this on a league-leading 160 rushing plays with good blocking. It shows Murray is capable of posting quality production over the course of an entire season.
Add to that
Ryan Mathews, whose 9.9 GBYPA would have ranked tied for second had he posted enough carries to be listed as a qualifier, and
Darren Sproles (11.0 GBYPA last season) and the Eagles have the caliber of talent that can direct this team to the league lead in rushing yards.
The makings of the best rushing attack in the NFL
The ground game is the key element in Kelly's offense, and the metrics show the Eagles could field one of the top rushing attacks in the league this year.
It starts with blocking. Last season the Eagles fared quite well in my good blocking rate (GBR) metric. GBR measures how often an offense gives its ball carriers good blocking (very roughly defined as not allowing the defense to disrupt a rush attempt) and the Eagles' 40.5 percent mark here ranked third.
That Philadelphia was able to do this despite using
seven different offensive line combinations last season speaks volumes for just how well Kelly's system can keep the ball moving on the ground even in less-than-perfect conditions. Better health here alone could put the Eagles into contention for the top GBR spot.
Philadelphia won't lack for running backs who can make the most of quality blocking.
DeMarco Murray's 8.9-yard good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) total ranked tied for 11th, but more importantly, he did this on a league-leading 160 rushing plays with good blocking. It shows Murray is capable of posting quality production over the course of an entire season.
Add to that
Ryan Mathews, whose 9.9 GBYPA would have ranked tied for second had he posted enough carries to be listed as a qualifier, and
Darren Sproles (11.0 GBYPA last season) and the Eagles have the caliber of talent that can direct this team to the league lead in rushing yards.
Pass defense should be much improved
...
Dallas will not be able to lean on the rushing game as much this season
The Cowboys' prowess in running the ball helped them lead the league in time of possession (32 minutes, 50 seconds per game) and rank next to last in pass attempts (476). This ability had the triple positive side effect of wearing opposing defenses down, protecting their own defense and limiting the number of times
Tony Romo could get hit or potentially hurt his team with risky throws.
Two items are likely to cause that formula to not be quite as successful this season.
The first is the personnel changes at running back. With Murray now in Philadelphia, the Cowboys' backfield consists of
Darren McFadden,
Joseph Randle,
Lance Dunbar and
Ryan Williams.
McFadden is coming off of a season where he played 16 games for the first time in his career but he also tallied a meager 6.9 GBYPA that ranked tied for 36th in that category. Sub-par production is not an anomaly for McFadden, as he ranks next to last in yards per carry over the past three seasons (3.3).
If McFadden can't shoulder the burden, the Cowboys will call on Randle, Dunbar and Williams, a trio that has a combined 243 career rushing attempts, to take this ground game to the heights Murray took it to last year. It's possible Dallas will find another running back between now and the beginning of the season, but as things stand today, they don't have any backs who have a proven history of top-quality production on a high volume of carries.
Compounding that issue is item two, which is a Cowboys pass defense that will be greatly tested by a very difficult slate of wide receiver matchups. Pass-catchers on this list include
Odell Beckham Jr. and
DeSean Jackson (two games each) along with
Julio Jones,
Mike Evans,
Vincent Jackson,
Jarvis Landry,
DeVante Parker,
Kelvin Benjamin,
Jordy Nelson,
Randall Cobb,
Brandon Marshall and
Sammy Watkins.
Add in tough tight end matchups against Seattle (
Jimmy Graham) and New England (
Rob Gronkowski) and it looks all but certain Dallas may end up in more shootouts this season than it was last year.
These two issues will not bode well for the Cowboys leaning on the ground game as much as they did in 2014 and will help close the gap for the Eagles.
Bottom line
Kelly's system has been successful thus far with less-than-perfect fits in many personnel areas, especially at quarterback. As long as the Eagles keep Bradford healthy (they ranked first in ESPN Stats & Information's pass protection metric in 2013), they will finally be able to fully implement Kelly's program. That will pay off with Philadelphia's second NFC East title in three years.
Nothing special about this thread it's typical of what you see here. Just hang around it gets a lot better than this.
