Even Considering Drafting Jeanty is Insane

[darthseinfeld]

My goodness look at Brooks catching passes downfield from Rush . Flournoy never targeted Mingo cost a 4th rounder and Tolbert has become a Randall Cobb type who catches balls in the end zone . How many WR can Dallas collect and hardly use ?

None of them outside Tolbert is a playable NFL receiver. Just because they are on our roster, doesnt make them legitimate NFL players.

And before the "they never even give Flourney a chance": Brooks is hot garbage, and Flourney cant even get snaps over him

 

[darthseinfeld]

Everyone you listed is terrible…these guys wouldn’t even be on a contending roster.

We need an impact player drafted early or signed in FA not a late rounder or undrafted FA.

fixed with the exception of Tolbert

 

[cnuball21]

fixed with the exception of Tolbert

LoL…probably more accurate.

 

[darthseinfeld]

LoL…probably more accurate.

Maybe Mingo as a development #6. But based on actual play.....no

 

[lk8701]

Never underestimate Jerry searching for easy answers (aka he is lazy).


Jeanty is a name. Jeanty sells jerseys. On top of that, he’s from Frisco.

Exactly. Jerry wants to rake in the money. He doesn't care about winning.

 

[Rayman70]

I don't think this team can turn its nose up on the best player available at their pick, regardless of their position.

If it's Jeanty, take him. If it's a DT, take him. If it's a G a T a LB a S, take him. We have too many holes to try and plot the best value. We simply need better players everywhere. There really isn't one position on this team that couldn't benefit from adding a top prospect.

This team fails when it gets too cute and tries to maximize value instead of just taking the best football player. Take the Lions approach where they drafted Gibbs, LaPorta, Branch--and take the best player.

Exactly. We need guys all over the place.

 

[CalPolyTechnique]

The counter to that is you can get that value much later. Jonathan Taylor was a second round pick. Derrick Henry was a second round pick. Josh Jacobs was taken at 24. Alvin Kamara was a third round pick. Joe Mixon was a second round pick. Aaron Jones was a fifth round pick. Tony Pollard was a 4th round pick. Deandre Swift was a second round pick. Ekeler was undrafted. Chase Brown round 5. Nick Chubb second round. That’s the vast majority of the top 15 running backs. Tight End is the same story.

Now do a more valuable position: defensive tackle. Aaron Donald 13th overall. Deforest Buckner 7th. Jalen Carter 9th overall. Dexter Lawrence 17th. Jeffrey Simmons 19th. Ndamukong Suh 2nd. Fletcher Cox 12th. Derrick Brown 7th. Ed Oliver 9th. Quinnen Williams 3rd overall. Leonard Williams 6th. Christian Wilkins 13th. Cameron Heyward 31st. Chris Jones 37th, Christian Barmore 38th. Nearly every great DT of the past 10 years was a top 40 pick, and most were top 20.

Positional value is the most important aspect with premium picks. No one takes kickers that high, no one takes punters that high. No one but draft geniuses Vegas and Atlanta would take a TE that high. And no one should be taking RB’s that high. A team with a phenomenal running back is going to lose to a team with better lines every time.

You brought up how cheap his position is, but that’s more of a point to take a DT instead. Getting a 30m$ player on a rookie deal heavily outweighs getting a 10-15m$ player on a rookie deal. Furthermore, what is the value in keeping that player? Ask yourself this: Aaron Donald, when in his career did Dallas ever have the opportunity to acquire him? Like a serious opportunity. Now do Fletcher Cox. Now do Quinnen Williams or Dexter Lawrence or project the next time you may pry Jalen Carter from Philly or Jeffrey Simmons from Tennessee. These guys are rarely ever anvailablr other than at the top of the draft. Bidding war for Ndamukong Suh when he went to Miami for a record deal, bidding war for Christian Wilkins when he went to Las Vegas. Thats about it. Now do the same with the top RBs. Could you have ever gotten Saquon if you really wanted him? Derrick Henry? Joe Mixon? Josh Jacobs? CMC? Aaron Jones? Austin Ekeler? Deandre Swift?

If you don’t draft DT high, you’ll never fix DT. But you could go out and get a strong run game any time you want.

More valuable position, Better rookie contract ROI, rarer talent, and substantially longer tenure

We’re talking about player value in a vacuum without context of other prospects.

Of course if there’s a blue chip DT, I’m taking him over a RB every time.

With that said, I’m making the argument there is a case for taking a RB relatively high for the reasons I stated previously.

 

[CalPolyTechnique]

I think a HB could be good value if you are picking them past the top 20. You can get those immediate returns at a bargin price. With Jeanty, you are taking him in a place where you should be looking for a guy that could be playing at a 30m AAV value or so. And will still be a foundation peice when he is making that money. That was the folly of Elliott over Ramsey, Staley and Buckner

You look at a guy Josh Jacobs in 2019, you pass on Hollywood Brown, and Montez Sweat. Both very good players, but you dont feel like you have lost as much in the long term

Yep, I probably was in the small minority of posters (sounds like you too) that advocated taking Ramsey over Zeke in 2016.

Getting a top notch corner for 3-4 years on a relatively paltry AAV was far better value than taking a RB at 4th overall and instantly making him the 2nd or 3rd highest paid player at his position as a rookie (I think only Gurley was getting paid more at the time).

 

[cnuball21]

Yep, I probably was in the small minority of posters (sounds like you too) that advocated taking Ramsey over Zeke in 2016.

Getting a top notch corner for 3-4 years on a relatively paltry AAV was far better value than taking a RB at 4th overall and instantly making him the 2nd or 3rd highest paid player at his position as a rookie (I think only Gurley was getting paid more at the time).

Ramsey over Zeke was the easiest decision we ever could’ve made…

Both blue chip prospects. The CB commands 3 times the cost in the open market…we draft the RB. Complete insanity.

I love Jeanty, but he is not a generational talent and I’m not even sure I’d call him a blue chipper. He’s not Zeke, Saquon, Gurley, AP…heck he’s not even Bijan or Gibbs as a prospect.

 

[baltcowboy]

Ramsey over Zeke was the easiest decision we ever could’ve made…

Both blue chip prospects. The CB commands 3 times the cost in the open market…we draft the RB. Complete insanity.

I love Jeanty, but he is not a generational talent and I’m not even sure I’d call him a blue chipper. He’s not Zeke, Saquon, Gurley, AP…heck he’s not even Bijan or Gibbs as a prospect.

Really….. Why do I keep hearing from draft gurus that he is a top 5 player in the draft. Broaddus says he is a better prospect than Bijon.

I am a big Florida St. fan and Ramsey was a much better safety prospect than cornerback. I would have taken him because of the school he went to but I can tell you right now that our coaching staff would not have used him properly. We would have had Byron at free safety and Ramsey at strong. Our two best safeties might have been the best cornerback tandem in the league and we wouldn’t have known.

 

[cnuball21]

Really….. Why do I keep hearing from draft gurus that he is a top 5 player in the draft. Broaddus says he is a better prospect than Bijon.

I am a big Florida St. fan and Ramsey was a much better safety prospect than cornerback. I would have taken him because of the school he went to but I can tell you right now that our coaching staff would not have used him properly. We would have had Byron at free safety and Ramsey at strong. Our two best safeties might have been the best cornerback tandem in the league and we wouldn’t have known.

He’s a 1st rounder for sure…and good for Broaddus. Strongly disagree.

And there were also scouts that would disagree with your take on Ramsey - I remember him being incredibly highly touted as a CB.

 

[CalPolyTechnique]

Really….. Why do I keep hearing from draft gurus that he is a top 5 player in the draft. Broaddus says he is a better prospect than Bijon.

I am a big Florida St. fan and Ramsey was a much better safety prospect than cornerback. I would have taken him because of the school he went to but I can tell you right now that our coaching staff would not have used him properly. We would have had Byron at free safety and Ramsey at strong. Our two best safeties might have been the best cornerback tandem in the league and we wouldn’t have known.

We can probably thank Deion for swaying Jerry into making the Zeke pick. The Cowboys consulted Deion when it came to Ramsey and his hips were too stiff to a cornerback.

 

[cnuball21]

We can probably thank Deion for swaying Jerry into making the Zeke pick. The Cowboys consulted Deion when it came to Ramsey and his hips were too stiff to a cornerback.

If that’s true that’s the dumbest assessment I’ve ever heard.

Please do not let him become the HC.

 

[CalPolyTechnique]

If that’s true that’s the dumbest assessment I’ve ever heard.

Please do not let him become the HC.

Yeah, I’m trying to find the article but I think probably heard it on the Break. It wasn’t that Deion advocating that the Cowboys not draft him, but the fact he thought Ramsey would probably be best suited as a safety.

 

[Proof]

Here is a hypothetical:

Let’s say the Cowboys were going to draft a WR in the top 10. You are given clairvoyant vision of what this player will become. Jalen Tolbert eventually evolves into CeeDee’s #2, and this WR will never be better than the #3 WR on the team. Was that a wise choice for a top 10 draft pick? What about top 20? What about first round?

In 2024, Darnell Mooney signed a 3y, 39m$ contract to be the #3 WR for the Atlanta Falcons. 13m$ a year. Good number 2’s like Waddle and Smith and Deebo are going for 20-25m$, so a #3 who is also a starter is about right at 13m$.

Saquon Barkley signed for 13.5m$ AAV. Josh Jacobs signed for 12m$ AAV. Derrick Henry signed for 9m$ AAV. Joe Mixon signed for 8.5m$ AAV. Aaron Jones signed for 7m$ AAV. Little bit of backtracking here, but Had the Falcons simply signed one of these guys instead of Mooney and not taken Bijan Robinson, they would have their star RB and the 8th overall pick in the 2023 draft. Now, going back to the previous question, Would you have taken Darnell Mooney 8th overall? Or would you have taken Jalen Carter? Peter Skoronski? Calijah Kancey? This is effectively the question with Ashton Jeanty. Why are you even considering taking a player with the value of a third WR that early in the draft? Think about the dumb teams who do that stuff:

Atlanta with Bijan Robinson. Has Bijan improved Atlanta’s future in any discernible way? They had a dominant run game before he got there. They’re about the same team before he was draft, plus Kirk Cousins. And now he’s already 2 years into his 8 year shelf life. Would they be viewed as a better team right now if Jalen Carter was on their DLine? Peter Skoronski was on their Oline? Of course they would be. A better team now and a better future.

Cleveland with Trent Richardson. A complete bust, but he was also viewed as the next great NFL RB. How would Cleveland’s future change at all had he been a hit? What changes? They win an extra game here or there from big runs maybe, but otherwise they’re exactly the same team, he washes out in 2020 due to RB age, and nothing else changes.

Detroit with Jahmyr Gibbs. He’s playing well for them. But had they not drafted him and just kept 2023 pro bowler and 1000 yard rusher Deandre Swift, let’s say he can produce 75% of what Gibbs can. Combined with David Montgomery and that Oline, that is still a dominant, top 5 rushing attack. But now you also have the 12th overall 2023 draft draft pick back. If you took today’s Detroit Lions, put Deandre Swift and Will McDonald (who was the next DE taken and has 8 sacks so far this year) on that team, they’re better. They’re better now, and they have an extremely bright future with McDonald and Hutchinson terrorizing offenses for the next decade, instead of Gibbs wearing down by 2027-2028.

New York Giants with Saquon Barkley. How did Saquon Barkley improve the NYG better than Josh Allen would have? They took Daniel Jones the very next draft so it’s not as if they weren’t in position to take a QB. But let’s keep this a Dallas parallel and stick to lineman. The next Dlineman taken was Bradley Chubb. The next Olineman taken was Quenton Nelson. Vita Vea went 12th. Daron Payne went 13th. Kolton Miller went 15. Frank Ragnow went 20. Teams in the teens were out drafting the team that drafted 2nd because they made the worst value mistake a team can make.

And now, Dallas Cowboys and Ezekiel Elliot. Over the last 8 years, what has the Dallas Cowboys accomplished that wouldn’t have been possible without Zeke? 1st seed in 2016? You won the 1st seed by 2 games and had the tie breaker on the #2 seed. You very plausibly still get it with a lesser RB picked up in FA. Zeke had pro bowl years after that, but 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020…. 1 playoff season there, and it was the only season he averaged over 4.5 ypc. He became more a workhorse than a star back. A guy you run into the ground more than a guy who runs the defense into the ground. And he’s probably the best result on this list for the drafting team. But are you in a better place right now than if you had taken the next lineman off the board… franchise LT Ronnie Stanley and moved him to RT? You would have had the best tackle combo in the nfl until Tyron left, and you’d still have him in his prime today. Or maybe you felt your line was fine and went for the next D lineman. Deforest Buckner is a DT with 65 career sacks, and playing well again this year. You would have been better on his rookie contract, better today, and way better for the future. You don’t need to burn a pick on Mazi if you have Buckner. The next guy is Sheldon Rankins, another DT… but he can play 3-tech or NT. A vary valuable player. Unlike Zeke, he’s not a star, but he’s still making 12m$ a season 8 years after his draft because he’s an above average player at an incredibly important platoon.

Jeanty would be out of the league in 8 years, and you’d be fortunate to get more than a few dominant seasons out of him. Giants got 1 out of Saquon. Dallas got 3 out of Zeke and that was a huge success. Lions may never get one out of Gibbs if they keep using him in a committee. Bijan may finish with around 1200 yards this year… is that a dominant season with a 17 game schedule? 8th overall dominant?

There is no value in taking a running back anywhere earlier than… 25th? The monetary value is terrible, the return on investment is terrible, the team improvement is limited, and the lifespan is the worst in professional sports. Bad front offices do this. Cleveland, NYG, Minnesota with AP (HoFer… they had the exact same problems with him that they did without, aside from the Favre year). Lions are looking great right now, but that pick does nothing to help their longevity.


QB.

Oline.

Dline.

WR if you have those covered

CB if you have those covered

LB if you run a 3-4

——————————

RB or TE is a complete waste of draft value before the second round. Why would you take a guy who has the monetary value of a #3 WR with a draft pick people are using on their franchise QBs? Their franchise LT’s? Their 15 year Dlineman? A guy who is wholly dependent on the quality of the Oline to even function properly? It’s actually crazy.

i'd still rather never read anything from you on this board, but that was a really well thought out and presented post. good stuff. a lot of us lamented not getting ramsey, but there were some very impactful players in that draft. (and still could have gotten henry)

 

[Proof]

The issue though is positional value.

Aubrey is better at kicking than CeeDee Lamb is at receiving, even though CD is a fantastic receiver. But does Aubrey make your team better than CeeDee? Of course not.

A good RT makes your team better than a superstar RB. If that wasn’t true then Saquon and CMC would be making 30m$, but they’re not because it is true.

You’re wanting to take the better play, yes, but he is the inferior roster upgrade. That’s the argument I’m making. A new tackle so you can dump Steele, a new DT, or Tank’s successor will make Dallas a better football team than a top 15 RB.

i'm not sure how anyone can disagree with anything you're saying. it's really baffling and making question this fan base.

 

[Proof]

I am in favor of taking the best player on the board even if it is Jeanty, a running back, because Rico/Zeke/Duece is a below average running back room that no one feels threatened by. The Cowboys offense becomes lethal again with another big play talent with CeeDee.

so grab one later, or sign one. they are so much easier to acquire than almost anything else.

 

[baltcowboy]

so grab one later, or sign one. they are so much easier to acquire than almost anything else.

Playmaker’s at running back are not easy to find. You have three CMC, Henry, and Barkley. They are getting older. Next season Jeanty could be on there level or better. The kid is 21 years old.

 

[Proof]

I don't think this team can turn its nose up on the best player available at their pick, regardless of their position.

If it's Jeanty, take him. If it's a DT, take him. If it's a G a T a LB a S, take him. We have too many holes to try and plot the best value. We simply need better players everywhere. There really isn't one position on this team that couldn't benefit from adding a top prospect.

This team fails when it gets too cute and tries to maximize value instead of just taking the best football player. Take the Lions approach where they drafted Gibbs, LaPorta, Branch--and take the best player.

sure just give dallas 4 picks in the first 2 rounds and they can do just that. aside from the massive discrepancy in tds ferguson and la porta have strikingly similar production and that's with ferg out the past two games.

 

[tm1119]

Good teams can be made better by a good RB, but bad teams are rarely/if ever made good by a good RB.

Everyone keeps pointing to Barkley, Henry, and Jacobs…now look at the teams they came from. They were/are all terrible and a great RB made no difference.

The Cowboys are not a good team and have much bigger holes to worry about before adding the final piece of a RB.