Here is a hypothetical:
Let’s say the Cowboys were going to draft a WR in the top 10. You are given clairvoyant vision of what this player will become. Jalen Tolbert eventually evolves into CeeDee’s #2, and this WR will never be better than the #3 WR on the team. Was that a wise choice for a top 10 draft pick? What about top 20? What about first round?
In 2024, Darnell Mooney signed a 3y, 39m$ contract to be the #3 WR for the Atlanta Falcons. 13m$ a year. Good number 2’s like Waddle and Smith and Deebo are going for 20-25m$, so a #3 who is also a starter is about right at 13m$.
Saquon Barkley signed for 13.5m$ AAV. Josh Jacobs signed for 12m$ AAV. Derrick Henry signed for 9m$ AAV. Joe Mixon signed for 8.5m$ AAV. Aaron Jones signed for 7m$ AAV. Little bit of backtracking here, but Had the Falcons simply signed one of these guys instead of Mooney and not taken Bijan Robinson, they would have their star RB and the 8th overall pick in the 2023 draft. Now, going back to the previous question, Would you have taken Darnell Mooney 8th overall? Or would you have taken Jalen Carter? Peter Skoronski? Calijah Kancey? This is effectively the question with Ashton Jeanty. Why are you even considering taking a player with the value of a third WR that early in the draft? Think about the dumb teams who do that stuff:
Atlanta with Bijan Robinson. Has Bijan improved Atlanta’s future in any discernible way? They had a dominant run game before he got there. They’re about the same team before he was draft, plus Kirk Cousins. And now he’s already 2 years into his 8 year shelf life. Would they be viewed as a better team right now if Jalen Carter was on their DLine? Peter Skoronski was on their Oline? Of course they would be. A better team now and a better future.
Cleveland with Trent Richardson. A complete bust, but he was also viewed as the next great NFL RB. How would Cleveland’s future change at all had he been a hit? What changes? They win an extra game here or there from big runs maybe, but otherwise they’re exactly the same team, he washes out in 2020 due to RB age, and nothing else changes.
Detroit with Jahmyr Gibbs. He’s playing well for them. But had they not drafted him and just kept 2023 pro bowler and 1000 yard rusher Deandre Swift, let’s say he can produce 75% of what Gibbs can. Combined with David Montgomery and that Oline, that is still a dominant, top 5 rushing attack. But now you also have the 12th overall 2023 draft draft pick back. If you took today’s Detroit Lions, put Deandre Swift and Will McDonald (who was the next DE taken and has 8 sacks so far this year) on that team, they’re better. They’re better now, and they have an extremely bright future with McDonald and Hutchinson terrorizing offenses for the next decade, instead of Gibbs wearing down by 2027-2028.
New York Giants with Saquon Barkley. How did Saquon Barkley improve the NYG better than Josh Allen would have? They took Daniel Jones the very next draft so it’s not as if they weren’t in position to take a QB. But let’s keep this a Dallas parallel and stick to lineman. The next Dlineman taken was Bradley Chubb. The next Olineman taken was Quenton Nelson. Vita Vea went 12th. Daron Payne went 13th. Kolton Miller went 15. Frank Ragnow went 20. Teams in the teens were out drafting the team that drafted 2nd because they made the worst value mistake a team can make.
And now, Dallas Cowboys and Ezekiel Elliot. Over the last 8 years, what has the Dallas Cowboys accomplished that wouldn’t have been possible without Zeke? 1st seed in 2016? You won the 1st seed by 2 games and had the tie breaker on the #2 seed. You very plausibly still get it with a lesser RB picked up in FA. Zeke had pro bowl years after that, but 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020…. 1 playoff season there, and it was the only season he averaged over 4.5 ypc. He became more a workhorse than a star back. A guy you run into the ground more than a guy who runs the defense into the ground. And he’s probably the best result on this list for the drafting team. But are you in a better place right now than if you had taken the next lineman off the board… franchise LT Ronnie Stanley and moved him to RT? You would have had the best tackle combo in the nfl until Tyron left, and you’d still have him in his prime today. Or maybe you felt your line was fine and went for the next D lineman. Deforest Buckner is a DT with 65 career sacks, and playing well again this year. You would have been better on his rookie contract, better today, and way better for the future. You don’t need to burn a pick on Mazi if you have Buckner. The next guy is Sheldon Rankins, another DT… but he can play 3-tech or NT. A vary valuable player. Unlike Zeke, he’s not a star, but he’s still making 12m$ a season 8 years after his draft because he’s an above average player at an incredibly important platoon.
Jeanty would be out of the league in 8 years, and you’d be fortunate to get more than a few dominant seasons out of him. Giants got 1 out of Saquon. Dallas got 3 out of Zeke and that was a huge success. Lions may never get one out of Gibbs if they keep using him in a committee. Bijan may finish with around 1200 yards this year… is that a dominant season with a 17 game schedule? 8th overall dominant?
There is no value in taking a running back anywhere earlier than… 25th? The monetary value is terrible, the return on investment is terrible, the team improvement is limited, and the lifespan is the worst in professional sports. Bad front offices do this. Cleveland, NYG, Minnesota with AP (HoFer… they had the exact same problems with him that they did without, aside from the Favre year). Lions are looking great right now, but that pick does nothing to help their longevity.
QB.
Oline.
Dline.
WR if you have those covered
CB if you have those covered
LB if you run a 3-4
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RB or TE is a complete waste of draft value before the second round. Why would you take a guy who has the monetary value of a #3 WR with a draft pick people are using on their franchise QBs? Their franchise LT’s? Their 15 year Dlineman? A guy who is wholly dependent on the quality of the Oline to even function properly? It’s actually crazy.