Everyone we needed to lose won

[Hypnotoad]

ok so there is no way to know who will be division lead till we see how it all turns out...lame.

Yep, but we can hope for wildcard teams to fall apart to make things easier for us.

 

[cowboyeric8]

Wow, I think all of zeroburrito's 1000 posts say, "WE DON'T CONTROL OUR OWN DESTINY!!!!!"

 

[jobberone]

I'll bet $10,000 that we make the playoffs at 12-4. Now does anyone want a piece of that?

 

[zeroburrito]

I'll bet $10,000 that we make the playoffs at 12-4. Now does anyone want a piece of that?

ill bet you $10,000(actually maybe $5) we don't go 12-4 =)

 

[jobberone]

yea, but we don't control our own destiny. not by a long shot. we have put ourselves in a position where we NEED other teams to faulter..

ill bet you $10,000(actually maybe $5) we don't go 12-4 =)

No you're the one saying we don't control our destiny. I'll change my bet. I'll bet you $10,000 if we go 12-4 we make the playoffs.`

 

[DallasEast]

we would have to hope carolina wins their division. we would get in over tampa, washington would get in over us. if tampa wins the division, it may be different. not sure if atlanta could also go 12-4. if they could, then they knock us out. i think tampa would win the division if they both go 12-4(splitting their games). which would nullify our tiebreaker with tampa.

tick, tock.

zeroburrito, according to your own scenario, Dallas would knock out Carolina for the final wild card due to the Wild Card tiebreaker rule "If the tied clubs are from different divisions, Strength of Victory applies". However, you can hold onto the hopes that Carolina's strength of schedule could be strengthen in their favor by Detroit and Kansas winning eight of their remaining ten combined games to even have a chance in hell of that happening.

Tick, tock. Next.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

I'll bet $10,000 that we make the playoffs at 12-4. Now does anyone want a piece of that?

I'm torn between the Giants or the Steelers. I don't think we lose both but I think one is gonna get us. Otherwise, I can see them actually going 12-4. I wouldn't bet on it but I don't think we have to be worried about this team losing to teams like the Seahawks. Ravens may sneak up on us.

 

[jterrell]

The only way we can possibly go 12-4 and not make the playoffs is as adam jt posited we see Carolina and Tampa Bay tie and go 12-3-1.

Sorry but to me that is enough for me to say we control our own destiny.

The very real issue is will we get in at 10-6 or 11-5 where we and a lot of ther teams likely finish.

I'd say if we lose to Pitt but beat the NFC teams we'll have a shot due to our strength of schedule.
At 10-6 it becomes quite scary indeed and we would be watching games and hoping big time at that point.

Right now all we gotta do is whoop Seattle then sit back and watch next weekend's games and let the dominos start falling.

assuming the very rare ties do not happen then the Giants or Washington loses next week. Carolina plays at Green bay. Atlanta at San Diego.

Week 13

TEN @ DET
SEA @ DAL
ARI @ PHI
SF @ BUF
BAL @ CIN
IND @ CLE
NO @ TB
NYG @ WAS
MIA @ STL
CAR @ GB
ATL @ SD
DEN @ NYJ
PIT @ NE
KC @ OAK

 

[jobberone]

Washington has favorable schedule and they play no contenders for our WC berth. I’m counting Philly out of it so they should make the playoffs but they need to win out if they lose to NYG. Projected record no better than 11-5 although they could go 12-4. They are looking at 10-6 real easy cause I don't think they can beat NYG. Baltimore needs to win to stay in it so that's a hard game. Real hard for them as they stop the rush and without it Wash isn't much.

13 Sun, Nov 30 NY Giants

14 Sun, Dec 7 @ Baltimore

15 Sun, Dec 14 @ Cincinnati

16 Sun, Dec 21 Philadelphia

17 Sun, Dec 28 @ San Francisco


TB 8-3 2-1 D 7-2 C
TB has a very good defense and enough offense to be a pretender for a SB win. They have games with NO, Car, and Atl. SD needs to win and are in their range of good. Range 13-3 to 8-8. But there are three losses to distribute in the South which is a good thing.

13 Sun, Nov 30 New Orleans

14 Mon, Dec 8 @ Carolina

15 Sun, Dec 14 @ Atlanta

16 Sun, Dec 21 San Diego

17 Sun, Dec 28 Oakland

Carolina 8-3 2-2 D 5-3 C
Range 13-3 to 8-8. Losses to put on the South x2. One North opponent. I don't see but one team in the North getting in but only two WCs go. So a good team or two will sit out the dance this year. At least one from the South and one from the East most likely although all the East or South could go.

13 Sun, Nov 30 @ Green Bay

14 Mon, Dec 8 Tampa Bay

15 Sun, Dec 14 Denver

16 Sun, Dec 21 @ NY Giants

17 Sun, Dec 28 @ New Orleans


Atlanta 7-4 2-2 D 5-3 C
Two games in division. Three road games. They are 2-3 away from home with a road win in GB and the other Oakland. I expect two losses away and TB will beat them at home. That's 9-7 likely in my book but range is 12-4 to 7-9. Ryan is a great kid but he's a rookie and the pressure is now on big time. We'll see. Two South games and one North.

13 Sun, Nov 30 @ San Diego

14 Sun, Dec 7 @ New Orleans

15 Sun, Dec 14 Tampa Bay

16 Sun, Dec 21 @ Minnesota

17 Sun, Dec 28 St. Louis


NO 5-5 1-2 D 2-4 C
Three South games but two at home where they are 4-1. Tough team at home and still in it. Three North beating GB tomorrow night. 11-5 to 5-11. Shows you how important it is to finish strong don't it? I think they are perfect spoilers but they are in it. Still three losses each in the South and North to divvy out.

12 Mon, Nov 24 Green Bay

13 Sun, Nov 30 @ Tampa Bay

14 Sun, Dec 7 Atlanta

15 Thu, Dec 11 @ Chicago

16 Sun, Dec 21 @ Detroit

17 Sun, Dec 28 Carolina



Chicago
6-5 with Minny and GB at 5-5 so any of these guys could beat us out of a ticket to the dance. I'm too tired to get into these guys but they play eight games that affect us by playing contenders. Only the division winner is likely to go but they could also send two.

13 Sun, Nov 30 @ Minnesota

14 Sun, Dec 7 Jacksonville

15 Thu, Dec 11 New Orleans

16 Mon, Dec 22 Green Bay

17 Sun, Dec 28 @ Houston



Minnesota

13 Sun, Nov 30 Chicago

14 Sun, Dec 7 @ Detroit

15 Sun, Dec 14 @ Arizona

16 Sun, Dec 21 Atlanta

17 Sun, Dec 28 NY Giants


GB

12 Mon, Nov 24 @ New Orleans

13 Sun, Nov 30 Carolina

14 Sun, Dec 7 Houston

15 Sun, Dec 14 @ Jacksonville

16 Mon, Dec 22 @ Chicago

17 Sun, Dec 28 Detroit


Again we win out we're in. The slim odds against that happening isn't worth worrying about. And even at 11-5 we likely get in although the odds aren't insignificant that we could sit with that record. I doubt it and even 10-6 doesn't mean no dance for us.

If we want to win a SB then nows the time to declare we are the team to beat. Even losing to the Giants won't kill me if we play them tuff. My guess is they can't beat us three times in one year anyway.

I do think that we are likely to see them in the divisional round. I don't think the rules allow us to play them in the championship game. I'm not certain of that though.

 

[jobberone]

I'm torn between the Giants or the Steelers. I don't think we lose both but I think one is gonna get us. Otherwise, I can see them actually going 12-4. I wouldn't bet on it but I don't think we have to be worried about this team losing to teams like the Seahawks. Ravens may sneak up on us.

We have a difficult schedule. Notice I didn't bet we would go 12-4. Those are tough games you mention although I think we can beat the Steelers if we get decent weather ie can throw the ball. OL will be tested.

 

[Bizwah]

Great post.....

Washington has favorable schedule and they play no contenders for our WC berth. I’m counting Philly out of it so they should make the playoffs but they need to win out if they lose to NYG. Projected record no better than 11-5 although they could go 12-4. They are looking at 10-6 real easy cause I don't think they can beat NYG. Baltimore needs to win to stay in it so that's a hard game. Real hard for them as they stop the rush and without it Wash isn't much.

13 Sun, Nov 30 NY Giants

14 Sun, Dec 7 @ Baltimore

15 Sun, Dec 14 @ Cincinnati

16 Sun, Dec 21 Philadelphia

17 Sun, Dec 28 @ San Francisco

I agree....10-6 here. Possibly 11-5....Our toughest challenge to a WC berth.

TB 8-3 2-1 D 7-2 C
TB has a very good defense and enough offense to be a pretender for a SB win. They have games with NO, Car, and Atl. SD needs to win and are in their range of good. Range 13-3 to 8-8. But there are three losses to distribute in the South which is a good thing.

13 Sun, Nov 30 New Orleans

14 Mon, Dec 8 @ Carolina

15 Sun, Dec 14 @ Atlanta

16 Sun, Dec 21 San Diego

17 Sun, Dec 28 Oakland

10-6 here.....We own the tie-breaker with them.

Carolina 8-3 2-2 D 5-3 C
Range 13-3 to 8-8. Losses to put on the South x2. One North opponent. I don't see but one team in the North getting in but only two WCs go. So a good team or two will sit out the dance this year. At least one from the South and one from the East most likely although all the East or South could go.

13 Sun, Nov 30 @ Green Bay

14 Mon, Dec 8 Tampa Bay

15 Sun, Dec 14 Denver

16 Sun, Dec 21 @ NY Giants

17 Sun, Dec 28 @ New Orleans

I think they fizzle....9-7

Atlanta 7-4 2-2 D 5-3 C
Two games in division. Three road games. They are 2-3 away from home with a road win in GB and the other Oakland. I expect two losses away and TB will beat them at home. That's 9-7 likely in my book but range is 12-4 to 7-9. Ryan is a great kid but he's a rookie and the pressure is now on big time. We'll see. Two South games and one North.

13 Sun, Nov 30 @ San Diego

14 Sun, Dec 7 @ New Orleans

15 Sun, Dec 14 Tampa Bay

16 Sun, Dec 21 @ Minnesota

17 Sun, Dec 28 St. Louis

I agree....9-7....possibly 10-6

NO 5-5 1-2 D 2-4 C
Three South games but two at home where they are 4-1. Tough team at home and still in it. Three North beating GB tomorrow night. 11-5 to 5-11. Shows you how important it is to finish strong don't it? I think they are perfect spoilers but they are in it. Still three losses each in the South and North to divvy out.

12 Mon, Nov 24 Green Bay

13 Sun, Nov 30 @ Tampa Bay

14 Sun, Dec 7 Atlanta

15 Thu, Dec 11 @ Chicago

16 Sun, Dec 21 @ Detroit

17 Sun, Dec 28 Carolina



Chicago
6-5 with Minny and GB at 5-5 so any of these guys could beat us out of a ticket to the dance. I'm too tired to get into these guys but they play eight games that affect us by playing contenders. Only the division winner is likely to go but they could also send two.

13 Sun, Nov 30 @ Minnesota

14 Sun, Dec 7 Jacksonville

15 Thu, Dec 11 New Orleans

16 Mon, Dec 22 Green Bay

17 Sun, Dec 28 @ Houston



Minnesota

13 Sun, Nov 30 Chicago

14 Sun, Dec 7 @ Detroit

15 Sun, Dec 14 @ Arizona

16 Sun, Dec 21 Atlanta

17 Sun, Dec 28 NY Giants


GB

12 Mon, Nov 24 @ New Orleans

13 Sun, Nov 30 Carolina

14 Sun, Dec 7 Houston

15 Sun, Dec 14 @ Jacksonville

16 Mon, Dec 22 @ Chicago

17 Sun, Dec 28 Detroit


Again we win out we're in. The slim odds against that happening isn't worth worrying about. And even at 11-5 we likely get in although the odds aren't insignificant that we could sit with that record. I doubt it and even 10-6 doesn't mean no dance for us.

If we want to win a SB then nows the time to declare we are the team to beat. Even losing to the Giants won't kill me if we play them tuff. My guess is they can't beat us three times in one year anyway.

I do think that we are likely to see them in the divisional round. I don't think the rules allow us to play them in the championship game. I'm not certain of that though.

Nice research. I agree....Winning out, we're in....as a WC...Wow.

I don't think we'll win out. I think 10-6 is very likely. That's a position I really don't want to be in. The point is, we have very little room for error. If we want in, we need to win out.

This season may be a case of too little, too late. It's a shame because the window of opportunity doesn't stay open long.

 

[jobberone]

Great post.....



I agree....10-6 here. Possibly 11-5....Our toughest challenge to a WC berth.




10-6 here.....We own the tie-breaker with them.



I think they fizzle....9-7




I agree....9-7....possibly 10-6




Nice research. I agree....Winning out, we're in....as a WC...Wow.

I don't think we'll win out. I think 10-6 is very likely. That's a position I really don't want to be in. The point is, we have very little room for error. If we want in, we need to win out.

This season may be a case of too little, too late. It's a shame because the window of opportunity doesn't stay open long.

Thanks. If we want to win the SB and we really think we're the best team in football then now's the time to show it. Win out and we're golden again.

 

[Verdict]

We're VERY close to controlling our own destiny. Everything would have to break exactly wrong for 12-4 not to make the playoffs.

While it would appear "mathematically" possible for us to go 12-4 and miss the playoffs, it is highly unlikely to occur. It would require an almost perfect storm to happen. Within a week or two the "mathematical probability" of running the table and missing the playoffs will probably be eliminated..

 

[Skinsmaniac]

Sorry about that. I saw your post late and then had to look at the scenarios.

Washington. It's possible you're correct. If Washington and Dallas finish with 12-4 records, the Commanders win via the 4th Divisional tiebreaker "Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference." Washington would finish second in the NFC East and Dallas would finish third. Dallas' fate would then depend on the second place finishes in the (EDIT) [strike]NFC North,[/strike] NFC South [strike]and West[/strike].

Carolina. You're wrong. Carolina has a date with Tampa. If they beat Tampa and the Buccaneers win the rest of their games, Dallas and Tampa finish with identical 12-4 records. However, since Dallas has already beaten Tampa, we knock out the Bucs for a wild card seed due to condition one/rule one of the Wild Card tiebreaker, "If the tied clubs are from different divisions, Head-to-head applies."

I'll slightly correct my earlier statement. The odds of our controling our own fate fall greatly in our favor. Feel free to panic.

Dallas's victory over TB doesn't mean squat.
Well, that's not exactly true - it only comes into play if Dallas and TB tie for the same record, but no other NFC team has that record. In your example, Washington, Dallas, and TB all finish at 12-4. If that happens, then the teams to get the wildcard spot will be the two with the best conference record. Dallas would be the odd man out with 4 conference losses. This "Dallas has the tiebreaker over TB" line is actually very unlikely to help the Cowboys.

 

[NextGenBoys]

yea, but we don't control our own destiny. not by a long shot. we have put ourselves in a position where we NEED other teams to faulter..

You're telling me if we win out, and finish 12-4 that we wont make the playoffs? We control our own destiny.

 

[zeroburrito]

You're telling me if we win out, and finish 12-4 that we wont make the playoffs? We control our own destiny.

not according to the post above you.

 

[Beast_from_East]

Here is the bottom line fellas:

While mathematically possible (I think there would have to be a tie between somebody), if we win out and go 12-4 we will make the playoffs.

At 11-5 (most likely scenario with us losing to either G-men or Pitt), we should still make the playoffs. Possible we sit home with 11 wins, but highly unlikely (I think the last team to win 11 games and not go to the playoffs was back in the 80s or something). We go 11-5 and we get a ticket to the dance.

At 10-6, we are pretty much screwed. Very unlikely we make playoffs at 10-6 due to our conference record. If this happens, you can thank the Rams for costing us a playoff ticket. Of course the argument could be made that if you cant beat the freaking Rams, you really dont deserve to go to the playoffs. Either way, doesnt really matter since we will be watching the playoffs from our couch.

 

[AdamJT13]

Dallas's victory over TB doesn't mean squat.
Well, that's not exactly true - it only comes into play if Dallas and TB tie for the same record, but no other NFC team has that record. In your example, Washington, Dallas, and TB all finish at 12-4. If that happens, then the teams to get the wildcard spot will be the two with the best conference record. Dallas would be the odd man out with 4 conference losses. This "Dallas has the tiebreaker over TB" line is actually very unlikely to help the Cowboys.

That's not correct. In any tiebreaker, only one team from each division can be involved at a time. And once a team advances, the tiebreaker is dissolved and a new tiebreaker is formed.

Let's say, for example, that Dallas, Washington and Tampa Bay all finish 12-4. No other wild-card contenders finish better than 11-5. Hypothetically, imagine that Washington has the tiebreaker over Tampa Bay (I haven't checked to see if they would or not).

The two wild cards WOULD NOT be the two teams with the best conference record (Washington and Tampa Bay). Because Washington would be ahead of Dallas in the East, the first tiebreaker would be between Washington and Tampa Bay. Washington would win that. Then Dallas would move into a tiebreaker with Tampa Bay, and Dallas would win that based on head-to-head. So the two wild-card teams would be Washington and Dallas, and Tampa Bay would be left out.

 

[AdamJT13]

not according to the post above you.

That post is wrong.

 

[zeroburrito]

so the only way for dallas to not get in at 12-4 would be a tie between carolina and tampa? that seems as unlikely as us winning all of our games. i guess 11-5 is our best bet. not sure if 10-6 would be enough and 12-4 is a tall task.