Risen Star
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You don't know because the rest of the reasonable entire world doesn't know. So how is it you know the unknowable. If you want to argue his likelihood of being a starter this year is on the lower side rather than the higher side then I'm with you.
There is one thing to consider. He's been kept around with talk of hoping to get him back when a scrub would have been cut long ago. All that means is they 'think' they see something worth keeping around. Not that's not a lot but it's a helluva lot more than your take on the matter.....which is generally your take on everything.
The failure rate for all players drafted or acquired in any manner is higher than the success rate. So you can be right betting on wrong here more often than not. It doesn't make you a prognosticator of any sort.
No one knows if Wilcox is going to be a player either. He has skills only more apparent than Johnson because nobody has seen Johnson play....not of any import. You don't have to be the best athlete on the field or even at your position to be a great safety. And I don't have the slightest idea how Johnson plays athletically or in any other way compared to Wilcox or any other player.
I wouldn't bet a plug nickel on his success but that's because I have no data. And neither do you oh great Swami. Have a good one!
Okay, then we'll chalk this up as another one of those I don't know deals that I've managed to be right on every time.
And at that time you can tell me how you always knew he was a long shot and move on to the next stiff the coaches like and nobody could possibly know anything about.