Those 2 teams played in a weak division and also had new offensive schemes that took awhile for opposing D-Coordinators to figure out how to stop. So unless Shanahan completely revamps his offense and the Cowboys, Eagles, and Giants turn to mush…it’s going to be a tough road to hoe for the Skins.
The bright spot is that from 2000-2006, the NFL averaged 4 playoff teams a season that would make the playoffs despite having a losing record the year prior. In 2007, there were only 2 teams that fit that mold. In 2008, it returned to the 4 teams who fit that mold. In 2009 it went back down to 2 (Green Bay and Cincinnati).
From studying these teams, the most common trait is that they usually have a veteran QB who would be at least labeled ‘decent.’ Of course, there are teams who make the jump from a losing record to the playoffs with a young, unproven but talented QB. But, more often than not it’s the teams with the veteran QB who is decent enough that gets them there.
The other big trait is the division they play in. A weak division filled with unstable teams usually makes it much easier to make that jump from loser to playoffs.
A trait that is a little less common is the head coach. The ones that fit best here are the coaches that have had success (made the playoffs) before with that particular team. Then the new and unproven coaches work the second best and then the successful coaches with other teams work the next best.
But, the big trait is the veteran QB who is at least decent. I think McNabb fits that mold, but the division is a real killer. I think the Bears fit the mold of a team ready to make a jump, but again the division is a killer.
In the 2000-2006 seasons when there was virtually 4 playoff teams each year that made the playoffs, that was usually due in part that the league would average about 14-16 teams with losing records. Only 12 teams had losing records, so I’m predicting 2-3 teams will make the jump from loser to playoffs.
The best candidates I see so far are:
Seattle – veteran in Hasselbeck. A coach who has had success in Carroll and a super weak division with the Cardinals having Leinart at QB.
Chicago – Cutler, Lovie…but a tough division. Perhaps if the Packers or Vikings fall. I’m more apt to say the Vikings given Favre’s age. I know he doesn’t get injured, but the odds tell me differently.
Kansas City – I’m not a Cassel fan, but I would label him as decent. Haley is that ‘new coach’ and more importantly, they play in a super weak division.
Washington – I’d probably give them more of a chance if they played in an easier division. We don’t know how Kolb will do in Philly. But I suspect the G-Men will be tough. I’d say that the NFC East has the best coaches of any division in the game.
Miami – Henne has the young and unproven label. Sparano had recent success with them. Division will be tough though.
Cleveland – Crazier things have happened and with Big Ben out for at least 4 games, that can give them the jump start they need. Mangini had some success with the Jets, making the playoffs. Delhomme is iffy. I’d probably label him decent overall, but he’s so streaky that he can either be really good or really awful.
YR
