Finding a Franchise QB

[Nightman]

Actually you are revising history. Aikman was cut. In fact Aikman wanted to play for another team, and looked for suitors and then chose to retire because no opportunity arose.

Aikman tried to put off the inevitable but JJones' hand was forced by the league.

Jones didn't want to cut Aikman but his extension was set to kick in and add another 7m to the salary cap. Aikman's concussion's were bad enough but then he started getting epidurmals for his back.

He didn't sign on anywhere else because it was over. Lavar Arrington all but retired him with that vicious hit. The rest is just semantics. No star wants to just walk away at 34 but he knew it was the only option.
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Jones would not have traded for Galloway if he wanted Aikman gone. Galloway was a Hail Mary for Aikman to win one more time before he hung it up a few years later.

Peyton is going to force Elway to waive him on Monday for a few reasons but everyone knows Manning needs to retire.

 

[Nightman]

Aaron Rodgers wasn't highly sought after, and certainly wasn't drafted in the top 5.

Almost every team by your definition made that blunder. They got DeMarcus Ware, who I would put right along with Rodgers actually.

Everyone thought Rodgers was going #1 to SF. When they went with Alex Smith teams were caught off guard. They didn't do a lot of work on Rodgers because he wasn't going to be there. Plus the top 15 was loaded that year.

 

[BlindFaith]

Agreed.

The Cowboys have had a "franchise" QB for about a decade now and have two playoff wins to show for it.

I'm beyond the point of thinking it's all about a "franchise" QB.

Didn't we get into it a couple months ago about the running game? And you not believing its that important? For anyone that thinks that, wouldn't that mean you should try to get the best QB that you can?

 

[Galian Beast]

And your "point" is wrong. Invalidated by much better data than you have tried to present.

22 of the 32 starters in 2015 were first round draft picks.

Again, I gave you a much better, more researched, and more comprehensive study on the entire debate. One which renders your entire case moot, you just choose to pretend it doesn't exist.

Even though link you posted said that part of that is a self fulfilling prophecy. You should read your own links.

22 of 32 starters were first round draft picks because first round draft picks get more time to develop and more opportunities when they fail.

When asked how many actually fail, you ignored it as irrelevant, yet it is entirely relevant as you are missing out on the chance for a franchise player, just because you want to wet your appetite for a qb.

 

[Kaiser]

Jones didn't want to cut Aikman but his extension was set to kick in and add another 7m to the salary cap. Aikman's concussion's were bad enough but then he started getting epidurmals for his back.

He didn't sign on anywhere else because it was over. Lavar Arrington all but retired him with that vicious hit. The rest is just semantics. No star wants to just walk away at 34 but he knew it was the only option.

There was a rumor back then among people in the know that the reason Aikman left so abruptly was that Norv Turner took the job in San Diego and convinced Aikman he would build the Chargers around him. Aikman forced Jones' hand but when Turner went to the Ownership group to sign Aikman they backed out. I think Aikman has hinted at this publicly but I don't have a link.

Jones (correctly) thought Aikman wouldn't physically hold up and let him go, and decided to take the cap hit all at one time to have one season in "cap hell" instead of several that were really hamstrung by the cap. Jones cut Aikman and with the Chargers backing out, Troy didn't have a spot anymore.

 

[Galian Beast]

Ezekiel Elliott is the safest pick in this draft. A nearly guaranteed pro bowl player at a position we could spotlight with our offensive line. We have a franchise WR and QB. Together, they would lead to one of the best offenses in the league. This would buy us time to build the defense and it would also make the defense better.

A rookie QB does none of that for you.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

Didn't we get into it a couple months ago about the running game? And you not believing its that important? For anyone that thinks that, wouldn't that mean you should try to get the best QB that you can?

Never, ever said the running game wasn't important.

I said it wasn't as important as the passing game.

And the passing game isn't just the QB, it's the WR's, it's the TE, it's the pass catching/blitz pickup abilities of the backs, it's the pass blocking of the offensive line.

AND THEN you have the defensive side of the ball.

A "franchise" QB can't do it himself... we've seen that repeatedly.

 

[Stash]

Even though link you posted said that part of that is a self fulfilling prophecy. You should read your own links.

22 of 32 starters were first round draft picks because first round draft picks get more time to develop and more opportunities when they fail.

When asked how many actually fail, you ignored it as irrelevant, yet it is entirely relevant as you are missing out on the chance for a franchise player, just because you want to wet your appetite for a qb.

I'm not considering anything irrelevant, other than your attempt to point at a group of first round quarterback misses as some reasoning not to draft one there. When all data shows higher failure rates for drafting one anywhere else.

If you want a higher chance for failure, draft later.

 

[Stash]

Ezekiel Elliott is the safest pick in this draft. A nearly guaranteed pro bowl player at a position we could spotlight with our offensive line. We have a franchise WR and QB. Together, they would lead to one of the best offenses in the league. This would buy us time to build the defense and it would also make the defense better.

A rookie QB does none of that for you.

Yeah, just like Trent Richardson was too...

 

[Nightman]

There was a rumor back then among people in the know that the reason Aikman left so abruptly was that Norv Turner took the job in San Diego and convinced Aikman he would build the Chargers around him. Aikman forced Jones' hand but when Turner went to the Ownership group to sign Aikman they backed out. I think Aikman has hinted at this publicly but I don't have a link.

Jones (correctly) thought Aikman wouldn't physically hold up and let him go, and decided to take the cap hit all at one time to have one season in "cap hell" instead of several that were really hamstrung by the cap. Jones cut Aikman and with the Chargers backing out, Troy didn't have a spot anymore.

Jones wanted to push back the deadline for Troy's new 70m extension to kick in but the league balked.

Like you said Jones had to make the tough decision to take the big hit salary cap hit but if he picked up the extension and Troy couldn't play it would have been even more disastrous.

Without the deadline I think Aikman would have made the decision to walk away on his own.

It is similar to Peyton this year. His 19m salary guarantees on Tuesday. DEN will have to cut him before then but no one really thinks Peyton is going to do anything but retire.

 

[Galian Beast]

Yeah, just like Trent Richardson was too...

How do Richardson's numbers compare to Elliotts?

Richardson averaged 5.8 yards per carry through his college career, he had 35 total rushing touchdowns and 3130 yards in 38 games and 540 attempts.

He was also injured in college and has never really been the same since. He also has limited vision.

Elliott on the other hand has excellent vision and is healthy.

His numbers?

6.7 yards per carry. 3961 yards in 35 games on 592 attempts. 43 rushing touchdowns...

 

[Ferrumz]

For everyone bemoaning about taking a QB and busting and setting the team back for 3 to 5 years please explain to me how the Cowboys recovered so fast and won 3 Superbowls after taking Steve Walsh in the supplemental draft with the first overall pick of the draft in 89? Oh and they had just spent a first overall pick on Troy.

 

[LatinMind]

For everyone bemoaning about taking a QB and busting and setting the team back for 3 to 5 years please explain to me how the Cowboys recovered so fast and won 3 Superbowls after taking Steve Walsh in the supplemental draft with the first overall pick of the draft in 89? Oh and they had just spent a first overall pick on Troy.

Stop.

Walsh was drafted because Jimmy didnt think Aikman was the QB for him. There isnt a coach or exec on this team who doesnt think Romo isnt the QB for this team.

 

[Galian Beast]

I'm not considering anything irrelevant, other than your attempt to point at a group of first round quarterback misses as some reasoning not to draft one there. When all data shows higher failure rates for drafting one anywhere else.

If you want a higher chance for failure, draft later.

Sounds to me like you don't understand risk analysis.

Drafting someone later in the draft (again, not that that is your only option in getting a QB) might have a higher failure rate than drafting one high, but it also comes with much less cost, and thus much less risk. Not to mention the rate isn't quite what you think it is. You have to discount the confirmation bias..., but again you don't even know what that means...

 

[Galian Beast]

For everyone bemoaning about taking a QB and busting and setting the team back for 3 to 5 years please explain to me how the Cowboys recovered so fast and won 3 Superbowls after taking Steve Walsh in the supplemental draft with the first overall pick of the draft in 89? Oh and they had just spent a first overall pick on Troy.

Because we traded Hershel Walker and had a bounty of picks...?

 

[Stash]

How do Richardson's numbers compare to Elliotts?

Richardson averaged 5.8 yards per carry through his college career, he had 35 total rushing touchdowns and 3130 yards in 38 games and 540 attempts.

He was also injured in college and has never really been the same since. He also has limited vision.

Elliott on the other hand has excellent vision and is healthy.

His numbers?

6.7 yards per carry. 3961 yards in 35 games on 592 attempts. 43 rushing touchdowns...

And Richardson was considered 'can't miss' and 'the best running back to enter the league since Adrian Peterson', and he failed.

If we're going to venture into 'numbers territory' now, do we get to bring up Jared Goff's compared to other quarterbacks or do those not count?

 

[Galian Beast]

And Richardson was considered 'can't miss' and 'the best running back to enter the league since Adrian Peterson', and he failed.

If we're going to venture into 'numbers territory' now, do we get to bring up Jared Goff's compared to other quarterbacks or do those not count?

You can absolutely bring up Goff's numbers, but it doesn't change the fact that drafting a QB right now with this pick is highly costly and that puts the risk through the roof.

There is no real thing as a can't miss player, we've seen that with Claiborne, but you can mitigate risk in your decision making.

Elliott is a player that perfectly fits our scheme, we have one of the best run blocking offensive lines in football. We have the offensive weapons to take the pressure off of him. It's a no brainer.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

For everyone bemoaning about taking a QB and busting and setting the team back for 3 to 5 years please explain to me how the Cowboys recovered so fast and won 3 Superbowls after taking Steve Walsh in the supplemental draft with the first overall pick of the draft in 89? Oh and they had just spent a first overall pick on Troy.

Good question. The one thing they had going for them in the 1990 draft (even though they sacrificed what would have been the 1st overall selection in 1990) was that they still had a 1st round pick, which they used to garner Emmitt Smith.

Having an extra 1st, lessens the pain of giving up a first.

 

[Stash]

Sounds to me like you don't understand risk analysis.

Drafting someone later in the draft (again, not that that is your only option in getting a QB) might have a higher failure rate than drafting one high, but it also comes with much less cost, and thus much less risk. Not to mention the rate isn't quite what you think it is. You have to discount the confirmation bias..., but again you don't even know what that means...

No, it's evident that it is you who doesn't know what you're talking about. 9 pages of watching you get clubbed over the head with facts makes that apparent.

And what's your "other option"? Dig the hole further!

 

[Stash]

Good question. The one thing they had going for them in the 1990 draft (even though they sacrificed what would have been the 1st overall selection in 1990) was that they still had a 1st round pick, which they used to garner Emmitt Smith.

Having an extra 1st, lessens the pain of giving up a first.

And being able to trade that 'extra quarterback' we had for a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round pick sure was nice too, wasn't it?