Giants winning one against Philly is the most realistic path to winning the division

[WillieBeamen]

As it stands, we are leading the division due to having more divisional wins, but still only have a 25% chance to win the East.

After h2h record, philly owns all of the tie-breakers and they have a way easier schedule than we do. Ima go on the record and say winning out wont happen. This team isnt the same on the road and it will be tough to deal with Miami’s speed.

Now if the Giants can somehow win a game against Philly, we will be afforded the ability to drop one of these upcoming games (sans the Commanders) and still win the East.

Now the big question is, can the Giants beat them?

 

[mldardy]

Ok thanks

 

[Sydla]

Giants likely can't. But who knows.

However, while not as likely, the Cowboys can still win the division if Philly loses to the Cards or Seahawks as long as our only loss is to Detroit. Detroit is a non-common game so for tiebreaker purposes, it has no value other than conference record (but we would lose that anyway).

If we wants any hope of winning the common games tiebreaker, we have to beat Buffalo and Miami, which as you state, will be extremely tough. If I were a genie, I'd magically switch the Miami and Detroit games putting Miami in Dallas and us playing in Detroit.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

They have to lose to any team. Them losing to one of the 4 AFC teams they play just gives us the tie breaker and we can afford to lose one.

IOW, Seattle, Giants twice or the Lions would all work for that.

 

[Sydla]

They have to lose to any team. Them losing to one of the 4 AFC teams they play just gives us the tie breaker and we can afford to lose one.

IOW, Seattle, Giants twice or the Lions would all work for that.

Them losing to one of the 4 AFC teams doesn't give us the tiebreaker. The first tiebreaker after divisional record is common games and yes, while they lost to the Jets, we cancelled that out by losing to the Cards.

Here are the common games:

Bills
Dolphins
Cards
Seattle
Jets
Rams
Patriots
San Fran

Cowboys are currently 4-2 (49ers, Cards) in common games, Eagles are 4-2 (49ers, Jets). If we lose one of the Buffalo or Miami games and Philly beats the Cards and Seahawks, we lose first tiebreaker after head to head and divisional record. In that scenario, we'd need the Giants to win a game to give us the divisional tiebreaker.

And they don't play the Lions, they play the Cards.

 

[JBS]

As it stands, we are leading the division due to having more divisional wins, but still only have a 25% chance to win the East.

After h2h record, philly owns all of the tie-breakers and they have a way easier schedule than we do. Ima go on the record and say winning out wont happen. This team isnt the same on the road and it will be tough to deal with Miami’s speed.

Now if the Giants can somehow win a game against Philly, we will be afforded the ability to drop one of these upcoming games (sans the Commanders) and still win the East.

Now the big question is, can the Giants beat them?

I thought you told me it was a big deal to be in fist place today

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Can you clarify? 4 AFC teams they play?

And they don't play the Lions, they play the Cards.

My bad it is the Cards not the Lions. We play the Lions.

Since they already lost to the Jets, the head to head goes to our favor should they lose to the teams we have already beat or make the AZ a wash.

 

[WillieBeamen]

They have to lose to any team. Them losing to one of the 4 AFC teams they play just gives us the tie breaker and we can afford to lose one.

IOW, Seattle, Giants twice or the Lions would all work for that.

They dont play the lions

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

They dont play the lions

see the post above.

 

[jazzcat22]

As it stands, we are leading the division due to having more divisional wins, but still only have a 25% chance to win the East.

After h2h record, philly owns all of the tie-breakers and they have a way easier schedule than we do. Ima go on the record and say winning out wont happen. This team isnt the same on the road and it will be tough to deal with Miami’s speed.

Now if the Giants can somehow win a game against Philly, we will be afforded the ability to drop one of these upcoming games (sans the Commanders) and still win the East.

Now the big question is, can the Giants beat them?

If NYG can beat Philly, we still must win that Washington game. To keep us ahead in the division games.
Otherwise, Philly still will hold a better Conference record. Depending the common games which I think we would still be tied. If they lose and we win those divisional games.

NYG beating them would be great. Also if Seattle can pull off a win, or better yet, Arizona, an underrated team can go into Philly and win. That may seem impossible, and highly improbable. But we seen how games can go all to often.

 

[WillieBeamen]

I thought you told me it was a big deal to be in fist place today

Yes it is a big deal. Had we lost yesterday, the division race would be all but over and we would be trying to hold on to the 5th seed

 

[WillieBeamen]

If NYG can beat Philly, we still must win that Washington game. To keep us ahead in the division games.
Otherwise, Philly still will hold a better Conference record. Depending the common games which I think we would still be tied. If they lose and we win those divisional games.

NYG beating them would be great. Also if Seattle can pull off a win, or better yet, Arizona, an underrated team can go into Philly and win. That may seem impossible, and highly improbable. But we seen how games can go all to often.

Yea i mentioned how we have to beat the commanders.

I have little doubt that Seattle can beat them at home. My doubt lies in that its unlikely we win out.

We need the Giants to win one of those games and play spoiler

 

[Sydla]

My bad it is the Cards not the Lions. We play the Lions.

Since they already lost to the Jets, the head to head goes to our favor should they lose to the teams we have already beat or make the AZ a wash.

Well yes, if they don't lose to the Giants, we need them to lose to Seattle or the Cards (or both) and we have to beat Miami and Buffalo. In this scenario, we can only lose to Detroit (because it's not a common game).

If we lose to Miami or Buffalo, then we lose the common games tiebreaker unless Philly loses to BOTH Arizona and Seattle.

 

[Sydla]

Yea i mentioned how we have to beat the commanders.

I have little doubt that Seattle can beat them at home. My doubt lies in that its unlikely we win out.

We need the Giants to win one of those games and play spoiler

Bingo. And the problem is the games we likely can't lose because of tiebreakers are both on the road and against two playoff caliber teams.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

I am multitasking so sorry for my mistakes.

The point I am making is that the 4 NFC opponents the Eagles face are also head to head matchups. Any loss for the Eagles there evens us up in the division and puts us ahead in the head to head.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Well yes, if they don't lose to the Giants, we need them to lose to Seattle or the Cards (or both) and we have to beat Miami and Buffalo. In this scenario, we can only lose to Detroit (because it's not a common game).

If we lose to Miami or Buffalo, then we lose the common games tiebreaker unless Philly loses to BOTH Arizona and Seattle.

So then you agree that there are many paths to the division crown. Great.

 

[silvernblu]

Two realistic paths to win tiebreak.

1) Common Opponents Tiebreak:

Seattle beats Philly. Cowboys don’t lose to or Bills. Arizona beating Philly can enable one loss to Miami or Bills.

2) Division Tiebreak:

Giants win one. Cowboys beat Washington.
Giants win 2. Cowboys can lose to Wash.

Of course there are paths if not a tie.

 

[silvernblu]

I am multitasking so sorry for my mistakes.

The point I am making is that the 4 NFC opponents the Eagles face are also head to head matchups. Any loss for the Eagles there evens us up in the division and puts us ahead in the head to head.

Yes. But they gain a game if the beat Arizona.

 

[erod]

Outside of a complete collapse from Philly, the division is lost.

That damn Arizona game of ours, and the failure of KC and Buffalo to finish games against the Eagles, made that pretty much a done deal.

It looks like a repeat of last year for Dallas.

At Tampa (or Atlanta) for an easy one, then off to San Francisco.

 

[WillieBeamen]

I am multitasking so sorry for my mistakes.

The point I am making is that the 4 NFC opponents the Eagles face are also head to head matchups. Any loss for the Eagles there evens us up in the division and puts us ahead in the head to head.

Yea but in your scenario unless they drop multiple games, we would have to win out or only lose to the Lions.

Which leads to the premise of the thread. The Giants beating them gives us our best path