Giants winning one against Philly is the most realistic path to winning the division

[Sydla]

So then you agree that there are many paths to the division crown. Great.

In theory, sure. We can even come up with scenarios where this even goes beyond the 4th tiebreaker, which is conference record.

But the point is that many of the paths are longshots to happen. Willie is right, the Eagles tripping up in one of the Giants games is the easist and probably the most likely path to the division.

 

[WillieBeamen]

Outside of a complete collapse from Philly, the division is lost.

That damn Arizona game of ours, and the failure of KC and Buffalo to finish games against the Eagles, made that pretty much a done deal.

It looks like a repeat of last year for Dallas.

At Tampa (or Atlanta) for an easy one, then off to San Francisco.

Us choking at the end of that Eagles game was the worst loss of the season as far as the division goes. We would be 11-2 right now to their 9-4 and own the most important tie breaker

 

[Sydla]

Outside of a complete collapse from Philly, the division is lost.

That damn Arizona game of ours, and the failure of KC and Buffalo to finish games against the Eagles, made that pretty much a done deal.

It looks like a repeat of last year for Dallas.

At Tampa (or Atlanta) for an easy one, then off to San Francisco.

Yep. The way Philly squeaked out the Buffalo and KC games is really depressing. Also, don't forget us pissing away the Eagles game too. We score from the 5, it's an entirely different conversation today.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

In theory, sure. We can even come up with scenarios where this even goes beyond the 4th tiebreaker, which is conference record.

But the point is that many of the paths are longshots to happen. Willie is right, the Eagles tripping up in one of the Giants games is the easist and probably the most likely path to the division.

Maybe. If Geno Smith plays next week, I think they have a better shot.

If the Eagles lose to any of the NFC teams they will find themselves not one but two games behind.

 

[Sydla]

Maybe. If Geno Smith plays next week, I think they have a better shot.

If the Eagles lose to any of the NFC teams they will find themselves not one but two games behind.

Where are you coming up with a two game lead for us?

Even if Geno Smith plays and they beat Philly, we still need to beat both Miami and Buffalo to win that tiebreaker. Both on the road. If we lose one of those games, then we would need Philly to then lose to the Cards, to give us the common games tiebreaker.

 

[nightrain]

Winning out is the Cowboys best chance. Watching the scoreboard and hoping is a loser mentality.

 

[slick325]

I'm hoping Geno Smith plays next week and plays like he did against the Cowboys. Not easy to win in Seattle and they are fighting for their playoff lives. That's the game I'm hoping Philly drops.

 

[WillieBeamen]

Winning out is the Cowboys best chance. Watching the scoreboard and hoping is a loser mentality.

No it isnt because we would still need an Eagles loss.

 

[goshann]

Us choking at the end of that Eagles game was the worst loss of the season as far as the division goes. We would be 11-2 right now to their 9-4 and own the most important tie breaker

This is true

 

[MRV52]

We just need the Eagles to lose 1 more game and us winning out. Seahawks will give them a game next week.

 

[Sydla]

We just need the Eagles to lose 1 more game and us winning out. Seahawks will give them a game next week.

The 2nd part of the equation seems like the most unlikely.

We have two BRUTAL road games coming up.

 

[WillieBeamen]

We just need the Eagles to lose 1 more game and us winning out. Seahawks will give them a game next week.

The Giants beating the Eagles is more likely than us winning out

 

[goshann]

Agree with others the highest likelihood for us winning division is prob eagles losing to giants and us losing to either Miami or Buffalo

Wining our for us is going to be very tough

 

[Shannon1]

As it stands, we are leading the division due to having more divisional wins, but still only have a 25% chance to win the East.

After h2h record, philly owns all of the tie-breakers and they have a way easier schedule than we do. Ima go on the record and say winning out wont happen. This team isnt the same on the road and it will be tough to deal with Miami’s speed.

Now if the Giants can somehow win a game against Philly, we will be afforded the ability to drop one of these upcoming games (sans the Commanders) and still win the East.

Now the big question is, can the Giants beat them?

No if they lose to Seattle they will have 3 conference loses just like us then it goes into points against teams right now we have more no one is talking about that

 

[strollinruss]

Ok thanks

I didn’t quite have all that figured out

 

[nightrain]

No it isnt because we would still need an Eagles loss.

The Cowboys best focus on what's in there control. Winning out is already a steep climb. The Eagles are leaking oil and could lose to anyone down the stretch.

 

[Shannon1]

We just need the Eagles to lose 1 more game and us winning out. Seahawks will give them a game next week.

If they lose to Seattle they will have 3 conference losses just like us we could still lose to buffalo

 

[WillieBeamen]

No if they lose to Seattle they will have 3 conference loses just like us then it goes into points against teams right now we have more no one is talking about that

Smh. You missed the entire point of the op.

Seattle beating them is realistic. In fact, if Geno Smith is healthy, id bet on them to win that game.

The unrealistic part of us winning the division in your scenario is us running the table. Playing @ Buffalo and Miami in b2b weeks is brutal. We will
lose one of those games, thus needing either the Giants beating Philly or Philly losing to both the Hawks and Cards.

 

[Sydla]

No if they lose to Seattle they will have 3 conference loses just like us then it goes into points against teams right now we have more no one is talking about that

But even if they lose to Seattle, we still would need to beat Buffalo and Miami to win the first tiebreaker after head to head and divisional record. That's Willie's point. How likely is that?

 

[WillieBeamen]

For those that are unaware, here are the tie-breaking scenarios for the division:

Two Clubs​

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory in all games.
6. Strength of schedule in all games
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss