Great example of Market Price for NFL QB’s

[CouchCoach]

QB is the position that good enough gets great money because what are the options for the owner?

Want to let Cousins walk and be searching for a QB ever since or pay him the market rate for a QB1?

Several teams took risks in this last draft with QB's and most will be right back in the QB pool within two seasons.

With Herbert, you can't point to accomplishments without regarding the most yards and TD's in his first 3 seasons, only surpassed by Marino, who never won anything but was always among the highest paid.

 

[john van brocklin]

How Murray and Watson are up there is beyond me

Ain't that the truth!

 

[Diehardblues]

QB is the position that good enough gets great money because what are the options for the owner?

Want to let Cousins walk and be searching for a QB ever since or pay him the market rate for a QB1?

Several teams took risks in this last draft with QB's and most will be right back in the QB pool within two seasons.

With Herbert, you can't point to accomplishments without regarding the most yards and TD's in his first 3 seasons, only surpassed by Marino, who never won anything but was always among the highest paid.

Right.. but I wouldn’t say Marino never won anything. He won league passing titles, MVP, divisions, playoff games , AFC championship and 1st ballot HOF.

He provided the franchise a consistent playoff contender to build around which is the example.

Too many fans attach winning SB’s with getting paid or elite status but that isn’t the bar.

 

[CowboyFrog]

Right.. but I wouldn’t say Marino never won anything. He won league passing titles, divisions, playoff games , AFC championship and 1st ballot HOF.

He provided the franchise a consistent playoff contender to build around which is the example.

Too many fans attach winning SB’s with getting paid or elite status but that isn’t the bar.

when you look at it you'll also find teams have played chicken with these QB's "Bet on yourself prove it years" with tags and such...the fact is there is no leverage for the team in these situations and now they know it... waiting costs more or worse puts you back into the no mans land of QB's. look at Wash, bet they would rethink that Cousins desicion in a heart beat.

 

[Vanilla2]

The ol how recently did they sign list

 

[jrumann59]

The cap goes up so the price goes up. It actually does make some sense especially when Herbert won’t see any of that cap hit for 3 years so it’s nothing for the Chargers to offer it now.

The NFL Salary Cap is a lot like SS. It banks on that that there will be more revenue dollars coming every CBA negotiation, eventually you will get to a point where you have more dollars going out than coming in. When that happens it will be interesting to see what happens.

 

[CowboyFrog]

The NFL Salary Cap is a lot like SS. It banks on that that there will be more revenue dollars coming every CBA negotiation, eventually you will get to a point where you have more dollars going out than coming in. When that happens it will be interesting to see what happens.

the NFLPA will get scourched in a CBA, again there is little negotiating leverage for the players... with out teams they really dont have anything, every owner could liquidate and be just fine.

 

[PA Cowboy Fan]

Watson absolutely refused to go to CLEV. Until they offered him that contract. Only way they could get him to agree to get traded there.

Murray whined and complained his way up there. I was surprised they paid him, as he definitely hadn't proven he deserved it at that time.

I don't even know that Murray is a franchise QB.

 

[DallasEast]

We must remember that Franchise QB’s aren’t necessarily Elite QB’s. Most aren’t.

Owners are willing to pay Market Price for less than Elite QB’s cause they know it’s the most important position to build around.

There are two types of teams in the NFL. One with a Franchise QB to build around and the others are looking for a Franchise QB.

Exactly. Most fans do not understand that starting QBs who want to be retained by their teams will be paid MARKET price. Market price is NOT based on accomplishments. It’s is based on a combo of what the market dictates and what the team feels the potential of keeping this QB brings vs going back to square one in looking for a new QB.

The reason QBs are so overpaid is not about accomplishments. It’s about the extreme difficulty in finding even a decent QB who can be consistent enough to give the team a chance to compete for the playoffs. Market value is dictated by the scarcity of QB talent.

If the market ever gets glutted with talent, the prices will go down. It’s economics 101- supply and demand. When demand is high and supply is low, prices go up.

Both of these rationalizations can be re-applied to other professional team sports, more or less, around the world as well. These should be required reading for de-programming anyone who cannot get their heads beyond the long-held, contracts-based-on-merit fallacy. Only then can perpetual personal disbelief and bewilderment be overcome whenever these signings are announced.

 

[xwalker]

These are great examples how Market Price works in the NFL . Prescott bashed for his contract back when Market Price was 40 mil is now barely in top 10.

NFL's highest-paid quarterbacks​

Rank	Player	AAV
1	Justin Herbert	$52.5 million
2	Lamar Jackson	$52 million
3	Jalen Hurts	$51 million
4	Russell Wilson	$48.5 million
5	Kyler Murray	$46.1 million
6	Deshaun Watson	$46 million
7	Patrick Mahomes	$45 million
8	Josh Allen	$43 million
9	Dak Prescott	$40 million
	Daniel Jones	$40 million

This list doesn’t include Rodgers which would drop Prescott to tied for 10th. Once Burrows signs new deal Dak will be out of top 10.
https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl...terbacks-2023-salary/zqrureirykzx3z7hyq713qov

%Cap = AAV / Cap Total for 1st year of contract.

%Cap Herbert and Mahomes both ~23% (based on the cap of the year signed).

 

[Bobhaze]

Both of these rationalizations can be re-applied to other professional team sports, more or less, around the world as well. These should be required reading for de-programming anyone who cannot get their heads beyond the long-held, contracts-based-on-merit fallacy. Only then can perpetual personal disbelief and bewilderment be overcome whenever these signings are announced.

100% agree. Merit alone is almost never the lone determinant in big contracts in pro sports these days. Especially with NFL QBs. So many fans bang their heads against the wall unnecessarily because big contracts are not based on big time accomplishments. They probably should be, but they aren’t.

 

[DallasInDC]

I think fans tend to think too linearly. Everything is considered 1) in retrospect to SBs and 2) to their own perception of value.

IMO, Owners/GMs, consider a lot more variables, unclud8ng marketability, ROI, value relative to future cap space/ break-even, comparative value of the cap and the salary, and comps at differen points in the contract. At the end of the day, this is a business and they are the value proposition of their investment...and if they win a SB along the way, that is icing on the cake and increased return. I think they all realize the impact of winning a SB can have on the bottom line, but also know that so many variables come into play with it (including luck) , that the odds closer to 1/32 than what fans think they are if they have QB xyz on their team.

 

[Jarv]

Doesn't the NBA have a concept of max contract? Maybe the NFL should follow suit.

 

[ghst187]

They seriously need to put some kind of cap on single player salaries….
But sadly like it took Sam Bradford to finally break the system of unfettered rookie contracts, someone will have to finally go too far with this…

 

[Diehardblues]

I don't even know that Murray is a franchise QB.

Great point and brings us to defining a Franchise QB.

It’s not an Elite QB. It’s basically any QB that a team signs a long term contract after their Rookie deal.

A Franchise QB is one a team invest long term with who they believe can build around to become a consistent playoff contender.

 

[Diehardblues]

100% agree. Merit alone is almost never the lone determinant in big contracts in pro sports these days. Especially with NFL QBs. So many fans bang their heads against the wall unnecessarily because big contracts are not based on big time accomplishments. They probably should be, but they aren’t.

Right Bob.

Its not based on anything more than the team believes he’s a QB they can build around to become a consistent playoff contender.

Basically enough so they don’t have to start over looking for another Franchise QB. The bar is much lower than most fans realize.

But the teams priorities are also much lower than the fans . Fans are looking for SB or elite caliber , teams are just looking for playoff caliber .

Playoff caliber brings a calmness to a franchise establishing consistency for creating hope for more success which is very marketable generating hope spurring revenue.

 

[kskboys]

So there are a few more stupid GMs out there just like ours...

Not as stupid, but pretty close.

 

[kskboys]

Great point and brings us to defining a Franchise QB.

It’s not an Elite QB. It’s basically any QB that a team signs a long term contract after their Rookie deal.

A Franchise QB is one a team invest long term with who they believe can build around to become a consistent playoff contender.

No, not just any QB. He must be competent to be a franchise type Qb. Top 10 or 15 at minimum.

 

[jay94]

It will favor the team with the best qb, but there needs to be a salary cap excluding qb, these numbers are just getting astronomical. Chiefs are winning anyways.

 

[jrumann59]

Doesn't the NBA have a concept of max contract? Maybe the NFL should follow suit.

It has a soft cap but when you are talking about a payroll spread among 15 players and the impact is more felt with the starting 5. An NBA team can turn it around in heart beat in FA or via trade pretty quickly. In the NBA if you have a super star player you will be competitive in the NFL if you have super star QB with not much else around him you will usually be on the outside looking in.