I found some interesting stuff your not gonna find on no freakin local weather channel here in the dfw area and I might say it's quit amazing if this happens. This Hurricane is quite unordianry from others I've seen now some are saying the storm could go all the way up north to shreveport tx then check this "Turn Around" and go bk into the gulf of Mexico and re intesify and what if this is a big what if when it does that turns around again when it heads out half way in to the gulf and head bk here for a second time that would be freaking crazy. Heres where i gathered this info it's really got me kinda stressed if this were to happen.
Transportation, Safety and Commodity Forecast Services
Last Updated: 8:46 PM GMT on September 23, 2005
Last Comment Added: 9:06 PM GMT on September 23, 2005
** STORM STATUS / STORM SURGE INFO - SPECIAL UPDATE #9 **
Posted By: SteveGregory at 8:43 PM GMT on September 23, 2005
Updated: 8:46 PM GMT on September 23, 2005
SEP 23, 2005 - 2:30PM CDT
- HURRICANE RITA CONTINUES NORTHWEST -
LANDFALL STRONG CAT 3 MAJOR HURRICANE
NEAR PORT ARTHUR SATURDAY AM
"STORM AFTER THE STORM"
The latest RECON and Satellite imagery indicate that Rita has continued to weaken slightly, and is most likely an intense
CAT 3 Hurricane. The last RECON reported a MAX sustained wind of 124Kts, which implies 130mph surface winds.
The pressure continues to climb very slowly - and is now at 931mb. The eyewall has begun to become distorted, at
30NM diameter, and the cloud top temps to the west of the storm have warmed over the last 3 hours. All this while the
storm has been traveling across a deepwater, warm eddy. Environmental shear no doubt has contributed more to the
weakening of the eye the outflow, then the warm water has contributed to the strengthening of the storm. One more example of
how extremely difficult, if not impossible it is to forecast hurricane intensity - short or even long term - except in the
broadest sense. It certainly is humbling. Nonetheless -- there is no doubt Rita will hit the coast as a Major CAT 3 Hurricane, with
the full force of the storm starting in 12 hours, with landfall of the eyewall by 4AM, and the center of the storm crossing
the coast at 6AM.
The storm center is currently located by Radar fix from Lake Charles at 28.0N/92.4W - this is 165NM E-ESE of Galveston,
145NM SE of Sabine Pass near Port Arthur, and 138NM SSE of Cameron, LA. The storm continues to move NW
at 9Kts. A dead reckoning of the storm's forward motion would bring the northwest edge of the eyewall to the coast
near or just southwest of Port Arthur in 12 hours. Sustained winds of 120mph, with guts to near 150mph are likely
in a small area where the eyewall comes ashore
While the most intense winds have eased off -- the size of the storm is extraordinary. Gale force winds extend well
over 210 miles from the center, with gale force wind gusts now reported in New Orleans. Winds gusts to 55mph are
occurring across most of the coastal locations across LA.
The models are in complete agreement on the track of the storm for next 18 hours. By 24-36 hours, the models begin to
go 'haywire'- as the steering currents become extremely weak. The storm will likely track up to near Shreveport by Saturday
night before going quasi-stationary. From Sunday on through Tues -- no one has a clue where the storm center - which will have
weakened considerably, will be going. The only thing being publicly mentioned is the storm will slow down and bring 2 days
of torrential rainfall to the region. The GFS continues to show the core circulation turning around and heading back to the
coast late Monday and hints at re-intensification. This is highly speculative of course, but you will not hear any of this
discussed on TV until Sunday at the soonest, assuming it is still being forecast at all. But if you took the landfall out of the
equation -- you would have a lot of attention being paid to this. Normally, once storms recurve to the north -- that means they
have begun to go around the sub-tropical high, and are almost always picked up by the westerlies - and taken out of the area.
But, just as was the case with Ophelia, even though the storm began moving northeast away from the Florida coast, it ended up
going stationary off the Carolinas for 3 days as the ridge built back in and blocked it's movement. It had to 'wait' for the next
short wave TROF in the westerlies, to finally pick it up and carry out to sea. The below series of GFS model forecasts will
show you it's track solution for the next 5 days. This is not meant to be a 'forecast'' per se -- but it is provided in my discussions
because that's what I do -- and not what the Weather Channel or spokesman for the NHC do. They can't -- I can.
The next update will be early tonight - unless there is a major change in the storm intensity or motion.
