This is the biggest thing to me. I'm on a draft / football scouting group where we go over those Draftbreakdown clips, and everyone likes to say X QB or X RB is trash because they didn't see some open receiver or giant hole on a play. It's just not that simple.
One thing I'd like to emphasize, in addition to what you wrote, is that NFL athletes move FAST. and while it's easy to point out that a guy might have separation or a running at a certain point in time, they're ignoring the fact that defenders will react to the play if you actually try to make it.
For example, someone took this picture mocking Mitch Trubisky for missing this throw in the end zone, and put it on the scouting group saying "this is your top 5 pick?"
Except he's not missing it. If you look, that DB on the left is in a full sprint and closing on the TE fast By the time Trubisky loads up to throw and the ball gets there, the defender is going to be right on his man. Trubisky might have a shot at a score if he releases instantly and throws a rocket to the right side of his TE before the defender can get there, but his window in this moment is FAR smaller than a picture or still-frame would have you think.
I get that same feeling watching these Dak breakdown clips. Pause the tape, bring out the highlight-cursor: "this guy's open 40 yards downfield, Dak needs to pull the trigger!" Yeah, wait till you see how much ground an NFL free safety can cover on a 40 yard throw. Dak did have a terrible game, but All-22 tape needs to be taken in context as well.