Football Outsiders simulated (using their weighted DVOA stats) the rest of the season and the playoffs 10,000 times, and the team that is the most likely to make it to the Super Bowl is ... the Dallas Cowboys.
That's right, they say we have a better chance of making it to the Super Bowl (a 48.6 percent chance) than the Patriots (45.2 percent), because they will have tougher teams to beat to get there. They say there's a 30.7 percent chance that the Patriots won't even win a playoff game.
However, the Pats do have a better chance of winning the Super Bowl (29.1 percent) than we do (21.9 percent).
Here's what they have as the playoff odds --
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[b]NFC CHAMPION[/b]
Dallas 48.6 percent
Green Bay 24.1
Tampa Bay 12.1
Seattle 8.8
Washington 2.1
N.Y. Giants 1.8
Minnesota 1.7
New Orleans 0.4
[b]AFC CHAMPION[/b]
New England 45.2 percent
Indianapolis 24.4
Jacksonville 11.8
San Diego 9.6
Pittsburgh 5.2
Cleveland 3.1
Tennessee 0.3
[b]SUPER BOWL CHAMPION[/b]
New England 29.1 percent
Dallas 21.9
Indianapolis 12.9
Green Bay 9.5
Jacksonville 6.9
San Diego 5.3
Tampa Bay 5.0
Seattle 3.4
Pittsburgh 2.3
Cleveland 1.3
Minnesota 0.6
Washington 0.5
N.Y. Giants 0.4
New Orleans 0.1
Tennessee 0.1
[b]All AFC 57.9
All NFC 41.4[/b]
[b]CHANCES OF WINNING IN SUPER BOWL APPEARANCE[/b]
New England 64.4 percent
Jacksonville 58.5
San Diego 55.2
Indianapolis 52.9
Dallas 45.1
Pittsburgh 44.2
Cleveland 41.9
Tampa Bay 41.3
Green Bay 39.4
Seattle 38.6
Minnesota 35.3
Tennessee 33.3
New Orleans 25.0
Washington 23.8
N.Y. Giants 22.2