Interesting Julius Jones news

[theogt]

No, this was only the second time in his career that he had a streak of at least four games of averaging less than 4.0 YPC each game. Even LaDainian Tomlinson has slumps like that every year (he's had slumps of five games, four games, four games and four games just in the past three seasons).

I didn't mean "slump" in the literal sense (i.e., consecutive bad games).

 

[DipChit]

But you're still just looking at overall YPC, which isn't a great measure of effectiveness.

Agreed. But it's also just more than the numbers anyway because we all see each and every play as opposed to just talking about player X on some other team that we might not see much at all and have nothing to go by but numbers.

Plus over the last couple months the number of yards (and carries) per game has diminished so much that if he goes 12 for 36, even if it includes 3 nice 8 yard runs (for example) it pretty much inherently means the other 9 were crappy. Unless he got 2 on a couple crucial 3rd and 1's or you can figure out another way where 9 carries for 12 yards was effective.

If the samples were bigger.. like 25 for 100 with a 40 yard run, it would be perhaps be easier to find some other quality runs in the mix. Even if more crappy ones as well.

 

[AdamJT13]

The run I posted?

CLICK HERE

Yeah, that's the one. The run was supposed to go up the middle (behind Hoyte). There's no hole there. And the left tackle was getting pinched inside. Julius cut left, then cut upfield (the cornerback was unblocked to the outside) and exploded through the secondary. That's a much different run from running straight ahead through a wide-open hole with nobody in the way.

 

[theogt]

The run I posted?

CLICK HERE

After watching the play again, I agree with you YB. There really wasn't a second cut. After the first cut the hole was straight ahead of him and was about 4-5 yards wide.

 

[theogt]

But you're still just looking at overall YPC, which isn't a great measure of effectiveness.

I was looking at YPC for every single game, taking out one of the outliers. I could break it down even more and take out more outliers, but the numbers I've seen and the games I've watched lead me to believe that would be a waste of time -- the same results would show.

 

[AdamJT13]

After watching the play again, I agree with you YB. There really wasn't a second cut. After the first cut the hole was straight ahead of him and was about 4-5 yards wide.

Watch it again. He bounced outside (cut off right foot), then cut upfield (off his left foot). If he had made just one cut, he would have been running to the outside.

Going back to the handy dandy red arrow --

That's two cuts.

 

[AdamJT13]

I was looking at YPC for every single game, taking out one of the outliers. I could break it down even more and take out more outliers, but the numbers I've seen and the games I've watched lead me to believe that would be a waste of time -- the same results would show.

Again, YPC isn't the best measure of effectiveness.

Do you want a game with runs for 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2 and 44 yards for a YPC of 5.4, or a game with runs of 4, 5, 4, 4, 5, 4, 4, 5, 4 and -4 yards for a YPC of 3.5?

 

[Chocolate Lab]

Watch it again. He bounced outside (cut off right foot), then cut upfield (off his left foot). If he had made just one cut, he would have been running to the outside.

Going back to the handy dandy red arrow --

That's two cuts.

And I'd say there's even another move -- even if not a "cut", depending on how one defines that word -- where he angles away from the safety, #23. That took tremedous quickness to leave that safety grabbing at air.

In fact, IMO that run is more impressive from that angle than it is was live.

 

[DeaconBlues]

These are the same bizarro world arguments made years ago with Hambrick. They were proved useless then, as they are useless now.

Whether you like it or not, a healthy JJ is a 1000 yard back.

Whether you like it or not, 1000 yard backs are not "average" in the NFL.

For all those so quick to bounce Jones, please list all the "average" 1000 yard rushers Dallas since Emmitt.

Hell, list all the sub average 1000 yard rushers.

 

[jay cee]

What I find strange, is how so many thinks Jones sucks, but some team will give the Cowboys a 1st or 2nd rd draft pick for him.

 

[theogt]

Watch it again. He bounced outside (cut off right foot), then cut upfield (off his left foot). If he had made just one cut, he would have been running to the outside.

Going back to the handy dandy red arrow --

That's two cuts.

Splitting hairs. I don't consider "cutting up field" a "cut" in the same sense that he shifted left after the handoff. Either way, I think just about any back in the league could have made the "cut" up field.

 

[theogt]

Again, YPC isn't the best measure of effectiveness.

Do you want a game with runs for 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2 and 44 yards for a YPC of 5.4, or a game with runs of 4, 5, 4, 4, 5, 4, 4, 5, 4 and -4 yards for a YPC of 3.5?

Again, you can take out the outliers.

 

[AdamJT13]

Again, you can take out the outliers.

So why do you keep focusing on YPC?

 

[theogt]

So why do you keep focusing on YPC?

The mean of a data set is more accurate when you exclude the outliers. You can quibble about how definite I was defining outliers, but I don't have the time to quibble (or more accurately, I don't have the patience). You can look at the numbers all you want. If you come to a different conclusion than I do, so what?

 

[AdamJT13]

The mean of a data set is more accurate when you exclude the outliers. You can quibble about how definite I was defining outliers, but I don't have the time to quibble (or more accurately, I don't have the patience). You can look at the numbers all you want. If you come to a different conclusion than I do, so what?

I just don't see why you're using YPC as the be-all-to-end-all of a running back's effectiveness. It's not. And removing a few outliers doesn't make it that much more effective.

 

[theogt]

I just don't see why you're using YPC as the be-all-to-end-all of a running back's effectiveness. It's not. And removing a few outliers doesn't make it that much more effective.

Oh goodness no, I'm certainly not doing that. I watch each and every game, and I've based my opinion on watching him play. I think he has a few problems that I've spelled out numerous times before. I can go through them if you like.

 

[DipChit]

So why do you keep focusing on YPC?

Cause it's easier than asking if a person is fine with the likes of the 13/30, 15/45, 11/40, 11/24 and 13/26 games.. where in most of those there cant be largely 4 or 5 yard runs with a token loss or two like you refer to in your better case scenario.

Cant be any 40+ yard runs either like in your worse scenario.

Whats so funny about it is if you add in the one game where the numbers were padded by a huge gain, thats a game where the rest of his runs were picking up good yardage compared to most lately, as well.

But anyway, whats *your* take on what he's bringing to the running game the last couple months? Good.. satisfactory.. subpar? What if anything would you do differently?

 

[Alexander]

Oh goodness no, I'm certainly not doing that. I watch each and every game, and I've based my opinion on watching him play. I think he has a few problems that I've spelled out numerous times before. I can go through them if you like.

Foolishness.

Don't you realize you can punch numbers into a little calculator and that tells you everything?

He is not getting the job done right now. Save the Panthers game last year, he did not get it done then either. Does anyone realize that if you excise the Panthers game he did not have a single 100 yard performance in 2005?

That is and always has been the point.

Three or four games? That's a slump.

When the player has not demonstrated much consistency over the course of his career, that is a trend. This is the dreaded third year.

He is either on fire or ice cold. There is no measure of consistency. He is not reliable. Call me particular, I want a reliable tailback. Not a "home run hitter" who doesn't hit home runs but once every twelve games.

And as for replacing him with "any old second or third rounder", why not?What round was he chosen in again?

Why he is some cherished player we have to clutch to our bosoms for dear life is beyond me. Too much was made of 2004 when he showed a glimmer of stardom.

 

[Tobal]

His brother took awhile to get it, but now his play is keeping a top ten pick on the bench

 

[jimmy4713]

This is a great problem to have.