Jones and His Incredible Ability to Defeat Probability

[dupree89]

Sometimes it amazes me he didn't draft Tom Brady, lol...

Tom Brady probably would never have become Tom Brady.

 

[loublue22]

sad, smh

hope you profited off me responding

What does that mean

 

[FanofJerry]

Pretty simple. Nearly every other GM in the league gets fired for poor results.

why shouldnt owners for hiring incompetent GM's?

you dont want to answer. lame

 

[Cowboys5217]

I think Jerry is obsessed with doing the opposite of what everyone thinks he should.

If 90% of the media and fans say “Ben Johnson is the no brainer HC hire” then you can rest assured that Jerry won’t even interview him.

Nobody wants anything to do with Schottenheimer as a HC, so what’s Jerry do? He seriously flirts with it.

I think he thinks that if he goes the way people think is the correct way, then he won’t be doing it “his way” because he would just be doing what everyone says he should do.

If you think someone would be a great hire for the Cowboys you would stand a better chance of getting that person hired by telling Jerry how much of a bad fit he would be than you would by telling Jerry how great they would be.

I agree with this theory. Jerry seems to go against the grain or common consensus either from spite or because he truly does think he's smarter than anyone else.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

And, despite many protestations to the contrary, we don't know what Stephen will do once Jerry is out of the picture. As you said, not many people enjoy the spotlight as much as Jerry. Especially NFL owners. I mean, quick now, who owns the Jets? Or the Bengals. Or the Seahawks? So, it's a very good chance Stephen won't want to be "front and center". And we don't know how much Jerry overrules Stephen, McClay, the head coach and so forth.

Stephen may just honoring Jerry by just nodding his head and biding his time until he can turn over the drafting, etc. to somebody else. Hard to see he'd just continue in Jerry's footprints, with the prospect of extending the near-30-year streak of no SBs/NFC championships, and be remembered as Jerry will, basically an egoist and narcissist that doesn't have a clue as to how to be really successful without Jimmy handling the reins.

But we'll see.

Eventually.

I don't think what stephen will do is going to be drastically different. he has been mentored by Jerry, so his focus is on business and money making.
He will hire a token GM, but handicap him with how much money he can spend and who can sign and how much money he can spend on coaches.
we will struggle and continue to struggle.

just look at raiders.

 

[Montanalo]

I'm not sure what the status is for quoting Bob Sturm articles here, so please just google it. I want to bring attention to some math that has been worked out in it.

It has been my contention that Jerry Jones is so inept, so contrarian because he is GMing to spite the angry fans, that he has become a statistical outlier.

According to the math, for any GM to not make at least one CCG in 30 years the probability is only 1.8%. Now I know the Jerry defender contrarians will immediately try to point out Miami, Cleveland, and any other team who has (or had like the Lions and Commodes until recently) went longer I will counter that by stating the obvious - none of those teams besides the Cowboys has had the same GM for that entire time. This is a unique Jerry distinction.

It has not been hyperbole when I have been saying that the single biggest advantage any NFL team has right now is NOT having Jerry Jones as owner/GM because he is so bad at his job that not even blind luck is applicable. There is no broken clock being right twice per day, no blind squirrel finding the nut, no flukes, no stars aligning, no lotto win, no chaos theory.

It just simply won't happen till that old jerk is no longer in control. And you see why the coaching search has been nothing but a joke so far.

The collective fan base is a better football guy by a long shot than Jerry. He's an anti-football guy and the math proves it. Had we collectively GM'd the team through fan poll votes there is a better probability that the Cowboys make at least one CCG in the 21st Century.

So, you're saying Jerry can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory

 

[charron]

The fan base is divided on that, I for one believe he does want to win but only his way. He just is unwilling to do the right thing.

I detest the idiot as much as the next guy but I don't buy in to the he does care its ONLY money.

Just my 2p worth.

If he was losing money you better believe he'd be making changes. That is how you know what his true goals are. He's making money and having fun then he's happy and that only takes his team staying relevant but not necessarily competing for championships.

 

[john van brocklin]

He may be defacto owner / caesar etc but in the real business world, those people still get toppled for steering the ship to the rocks with votes of no confidence and in case of caesar.....well we know how that works out for him!

Sadly NFL owners can be complete failures and its a simple "carry on folks, nothing to see here"

Sad, so sad for us fans to endure this.

Especially when we were used to a better run team with quality coaching and teams that competed for SBs

 

[LACowboysFan1]

I don't think what stephen will do is going to be drastically different. he has been mentored by Jerry, so his focus is on business and money making.
He will hire a token GM, but handicap him with how much money he can spend and who can sign and how much money he can spend on coaches.
we will struggle and continue to struggle.

just look at raiders.

I'll take whatever difference I can get!

 

[FanofJerry]

bell curves are for beings that have no feelings and are envious.

they hate others for not seeing everything as a numbers win.

numbers, and the pursuit of numbers causes suffering. shame on those willing to participate in the whack name of survival, science, supremacy or greed.

sad existence youre creating, not intelligent life form

 

[Jarntt]

calculations only work if this is real.

you know its not...and are flexing.

its lame

It’s absolutely real. Name another GM who has missed the Conference Championship 30 years in a row and kept his job. Talk about a lame flex…

 

[FanofJerry]

It’s absolutely real. Name another GM who has missed the Conference Championship 30 years in a row and kept his job. Talk about a lame flex…

smh

 

[Cowboys5217]

There's always somebody willing to be contrarian even in the face of absolutely damning proof.

 

[Cowboys5217]

Pretty simple. Nearly every other GM in the league gets fired for poor results.

True, but these numbers are mind boggling. This is practically a negative miracle by the numbers. That's what I wanted to make people realize. This shouldn't happen in the real world.

Throwing darts blindfolded at a draft and free agency board to build your team has a higher probability of getting to a CCG in 30 years.

A rank beginner being selected at random out of a phone book, and who is trained on the job to be an NFL GM would have a higher probability to reach a CCG in 30 years.

That's not a joke or exaggerating. The numbers literally bear this out.

The standards of deviation dictate that even coin flipping to GM your team will get you to a CCG with a higher probability than what Jerry has done.

It is a legendary failure that I don't think some in this thread realize.

 

[mote]

Nah...the gap between Aikman and Romo doesnt count for me.

Its on Jerry's record...but the Bears have a similar thing if I am not mistaken.

Its apples and oranges. Sure, Laurie wins. Take out those awful years like analytics takes out the one or two home run plays for players' stats to show their true average per game(think running backs making an 80 yard run)....and its not 25%

sorry bout it

So what you're saying is if we take out all the NFCCG for the Eagles, including this year with their stacked roster, then Lurie and Jones are equal at 0%. Solid reasoning.

 

[mote]

smh

You've got the trolling down to a science. Love it.

 

[CowboyFanInLexKy]

I think Jerry is obsessed with doing the opposite of what everyone thinks he should.

If 90% of the media and fans say “Ben Johnson is the no brainer HC hire” then you can rest assured that Jerry won’t even interview him.

Nobody wants anything to do with Schottenheimer as a HC, so what’s Jerry do? He seriously flirts with it.

I think he thinks that if he goes the way people think is the correct way, then he won’t be doing it “his way” because he would just be doing what everyone says he should do.

If you think someone would be a great hire for the Cowboys you would stand a better chance of getting that person hired by telling Jerry how much of a bad fit he would be than you would by telling Jerry how great they would be.

Jerry has to have the credit for being right and everyone else being wrong if he's going to do something

 

[ICP]

In my opinion, it's not an incredible ability to defeat probability, it's the fact that he has no accountability to anyone including the fans. When the fans continue to go to games and buy merchandise at a rate that puts the team at #1 on the Forbes list he has no incentive to change anything. Like Dez said, Jerry has built the Brand, now it's time to change the culture. I honestly don't ever see that happening. Jerry purchased his 'Occupation' and we are stuck with it. It's like a guy that hasn't gone to Med School buying a Doctors Office and we are his patients, He never treats us well but we keep going back because we don't want to choose a new Doctor.

 

[DandyDon1722]

Jerry's biggest weakness in being GM, is his inability in hiring the right Coaches.
Except for Jimmy and Bill, the other hires have been underwhelming.
What is really bad, is his inability to admit failure and cut bait once its obvious that he picked the wrong guy.
Jason Garrett for 9.5 years happens on NO other NFL team.
He seems to value familiarity more than change.
That does not work in the NFL.

His biggest? Maybe - but then there’s this.

While Jerry is promoting fights and opening Victoria Secrets in the stadium the Eagles Howie Rosman is scouting tight ends at Drexel.

It’s a full time job but for Jerry it’s just a part of his daily to do list.

 

[plasticman]

I'm not sure what the status is for quoting Bob Sturm articles here, so please just google it. I want to bring attention to some math that has been worked out in it.

It has been my contention that Jerry Jones is so inept, so contrarian because he is GMing to spite the angry fans, that he has become a statistical outlier.

According to the math, for any GM to not make at least one CCG in 30 years the probability is only 1.8%. Now I know the Jerry defender contrarians will immediately try to point out Miami, Cleveland, and any other team who has (or had like the Lions and Commodes until recently) went longer I will counter that by stating the obvious - none of those teams besides the Cowboys has had the same GM for that entire time. This is a unique Jerry distinction.

It has not been hyperbole when I have been saying that the single biggest advantage any NFL team has right now is NOT having Jerry Jones as owner/GM because he is so bad at his job that not even blind luck is applicable. There is no broken clock being right twice per day, no blind squirrel finding the nut, no flukes, no stars aligning, no lotto win, no chaos theory.

It just simply won't happen till that old jerk is no longer in control. And you see why the coaching search has been nothing but a joke so far.

The collective fan base is a better football guy by a long shot than Jerry. He's an anti-football guy and the math proves it. Had we collectively GM'd the team through fan poll votes there is a better probability that the Cowboys make at least one CCG in the 21st Century.

I have pointed out that, since there are 32 teams, the chance of winning a Super Bowl is 1 out of 32.

Therefore, the "average" NFL team will win a Super Bowl one time in a 32 year period.

During that same 32-year period, the "average" NFL team will win two conference championships, they will go to the conference championship game four times, they will win their division 8 times. They will go to the playoffs 14 times.

The Cowboys have won their share of division titles and playoff spots since their last SB. However, they have bottomed out in the category of going deep into the playoffs.

Even if they do win a Super Bowl by 2027, it will have been 32 years since the last and they will simply be satisfying the Law of Averages, another testament to their mediocrity under Jerry Jones.