Late and Close: Career QB Comparison

[percyhoward]

Out of curiosity what's your source for these numbers? Sorry, I'm in the thick of University classes at the moment and we're forced to cite meticulously so I'm in that frame of mind at the moment

No problem. It's a good habit, actually, but one I've fallen out of.

http://www.pro-football-reference.c...der_by=yards#;;filters=quarterback:3,gt,372-;

 

[dstovall5]

to illustrate...

Culpepper, Late and Close
with Moss
214 of 333 2751 19 td 9 int 97.8
w/o Moss
73 of 119 929 4 td 7 int 72.4

And Dallas could've had him. He was probably the most physically gifted WR to ever play the game of Football, sadly we passed on him. He even wanted to be a Cowboy and thought we were going to take him.

... And when we didn't, every time he faced us he straight up murdered our secondary. Ohh what could've been.

 

[Doomsday101]

And Dallas could've had him. He was probably the most physically gifted WR to ever play the game of Football, sadly we passed on him. He even wanted to be a Cowboy and thought we were going to take him.

... And when we didn't, every time he faced us he straight up murdered our secondary. Ohh what could've been.

True but what was as sad was the reason why we passed on Moss. Given all that was happening in Dallas from the White house, accusations of rape, players suspended, Mark Tuine overdose and a massive call for the Cowboys to clean up their house gave Dallas reason to pass on a person with very questionable character

 

[percyhoward]

Well said!

Thats because the CZ poster's that provide excellent information are very few, while the worthless replies are numerous.

The graphic in your sig is what inspired me to track down this information, as you know.

I can't believe that gap between 1st and 2nd place.

 

[Tricericon]

Having Moss out there were all you had to do is put it up and let me go get it was a big help. Once moss was gone so was Culpepper

I feel like I should jump in here and add some historical perspective on Culpepper.

He was a downright fantastic QB for about five years, and not just because he was throwing to Randy Moss. In 2004, (when Culpepper had a historically great season) Moss was injured for about half the season and Culpepper didn't miss a beat.

In 2005, Culpepper lost Moss (to Oakland), his Pro Bowl center (Matt Birk, who made the line calls, to injury), and his OC (Scott Linehan, who jumped ship for the Dolphins) before the start of the season and then his knee blew out early in the season. He was never the same after that.

However, it is a disservice to the superb quarterback that was 1999-2004 Daunte Culpepper to suggest that he was a poor (or even average) player who just looked good because he had Moss. If that were the case:
*Culpepper would have looked bad when Moss was hurt, but still in Minnesota. This is not the case.
*When Moss went to Oakland to join Kerry Collins (who defines "average quarterback with a big arm") he should have continued producing like he did in Minnesota... of course, he did basically nothing with Oakland but exploded when he moved to New England to again have a top-flight QB.

"Moss made Culpepper" is a classic example of the sports media going with narrative over facts. Don't buy it.

 

[WPBCowboysFan]

The graphic in your sig is what inspired me to track down this information, as you know.

I can't believe that gap between 1st and 2nd place.

Its great info. Always appreciate your work.

 

[percyhoward]

Yeah, I'm stunned, people. This has to be the most jaw-dropping info I've ever found.

The yards per attempt on 600 high-pressure attempts is unreal.

Romo 8.6
Culpepper 8.1
EManning 8.0
Roethlisberger 7.6
Brees 7.5

Romo has 17 completions of 50+ yards in late-and-close situations.
PManning, Brees, and Brady have combined for 20.

On 1,500 more attempts.

And PManning, Brees, and Brady all have a higher INT% than Romo in these situations, and lower TD%.

Look at these yards per target.

Pass Ratings by Target, 4th Qtr or OT, 8-point margin or less
Witten 100 of 140 71.4% 1293 yd...9.2 ypt 4 td 4 int ..97.7
Bryant.....43 of 79 54.4% ..670 yd...8.5 ypt 6 td 1 int 102.8
Austin......40 of 60 66.7%...681 yd 11.4 ypt 7 td 1 int 136.9
Owens....16 of 33 48.5%...396 yd 12.0 ypt 5 td 2 int 106.8
Crayton...19 of 30 63.3%...272 yd ..9.1 ypt 5 td 1 int 118.3

And it doesn't matter who the target is in these situations. Robinson 12.8 ypt, Hurd 13.6, Glenn 11.4, Holley 27.3...

 

[Cowboys22]

Its great info. Always appreciate your work.

The graphic in your sig paints a different picture than most are stating in this thread. Romo has a very nice overall 4th quarter rating but it drops almost 30 points in the last 5 minutes of the 4th quarter when they are either tied or within one score. That is crunchtime and his rating is not good. His high overall 4th quarter rating is comprised of stats that include when they are well ahead or well behind and facing a prevent defense. I think the poor rating in the final 5 minutes with the game on the line is the more important number and paints a truer picture of whether Romo is clutch or not. He has been a very good QB and has made watching the Cowboys enjoyable again but no stats can replace facts and what we see when the season is on the line. He has been less than his best in games when its lose and go home and that is where he has earned his negative rep. Come from behind 4th quarter wins in October are very nice but nowhere near as nice as it would be in round 2 of the playoffs to get them to the NFC Championship. That is the type of 4th quarter win he needs to get his rep back.

 

[percyhoward]

What would you rather have, a QB that breaks every record but has very little playoff success or a QB with average stats and one or more super bowl wins?

I'll take the great team over the great player every time. But I don't confuse the two.

 

[percyhoward]

The graphic in your sig paints a different picture than most are stating in this thread. Romo has a very nice overall 4th quarter rating but it drops almost 30 points in the last 5 minutes of the 4th quarter when they are either tied or within one score. That is crunchtime and his rating is not good. I think the poor rating in the final 5 minutes with the game on the line is the more important number and paints a truer picture of whether Romo is clutch or not.

That's FOX Sports trying to control your thought processes. Without any context, the 74 seems like a low number. It's actually 10th among the 32 QB with the most attempts in that situation.

Also, in setting the parameters at 5 minutes, FOX chose Romo's lowest 4th-quarter rating possible. It's higher at any other interval. With 2 minutes remaining, he's 4th. With 7 minutes remaining, he's 5th. With 14 minutes remaining, he's 1st.

And on top of all that, the FOX graphic ignores more than half of clutch situations, because it leaves out 4th-quarter slim leads and the entirety of overtime.

His high overall 4th quarter rating is comprised of stats that include when they are well ahead or well behind and facing a prevent defense.

Congratulations for coming to the precise conclusion that the FOX graphic was intended to lead you to. What you just said there is what FOX wanted you to believe by juxtaposing the two stats in their graphic.

That's why the stats in the OP are only from late-and-close situations.

 

[03EBZ06]

Romo has a very nice overall 4th quarter rating but it drops almost 30 points in the last 5 minutes of the 4th quarter when they are either tied or within one score. That is crunchtime and his rating is not good. His high overall 4th quarter rating is comprised of stats that include when they are well ahead or well behind and facing a prevent defense. I think the poor rating in the final 5 minutes with the game on the line is the more important number and paints a truer picture of whether Romo is clutch or not. He has been a very good QB and has made watching the Cowboys enjoyable again but no stats can replace facts and what we see when the season is on the line. He has been less than his best in games when its lose and go home and that is where he has earned his negative rep. Come from behind 4th quarter wins in October are very nice but nowhere near as nice as it would be in round 2 of the playoffs to get them to the NFC Championship. That is the type of 4th quarter win he needs to get his rep back.

Hook, line, and sinker

People eating up a stat without any context, but then some people just want to believe whatever negatives are thrown out there for a consumption. Look up his peers with same parameter and see where Romo is at.

 

[slomoxn]

Well said!

Thats because the CZ poster's that provide excellent information are very few, while the worthless replies are numerous.

The OP has a good post here and you get worthless posts in other threads because more often than not they are polarizing and sometimes even worthless. If the OP of those threads KNOWS they'll get negative or opinions not in line with theirs why post it if they spend the whole time whining and mitching and boaning about people that don't think line them. I figure once you put it here you must want a response, if not keep it to yourself if you can't handle the push back, otherwise feel good with the thought that they have posted a thread that started a lengthy dialogue even if it is against what they believe. This is a discussion board for the COWBOYS after all, even though we have to discuss some other QB every time he loses a game...

 

[Risen Star]

Percy Howard is the best poster on this forum.

It's to the point now where I'm about to send him a "Do you like me? Yes No .... Circle one" DM.

 

[JPostSam]

QB rating means nothing, but if it did I would take the guy who has an 83.3 rating and 3 SB rings over Romo.

so, you would take the qb with fewer touchdowns and more interceptions?

i see.

 

[slomoxn]

so, you would take the qb with fewer touchdowns and more interceptions?

i see.

I don't see how these posts always degenerate into bash, defend Romo posts. Here is a question, do those that say Romo's stats against Brady, Bree's, and whoever you want to throw in make him equal to or better than, has anyone ever compared his stats to Staubach and Aikman and are his stats better than theirs? I would assume they are so my question is... Is Romo a better QB than Staubach and Aikman, OUR Two HOF Qb's with lower overall ratings than our current QB. So let's forget the other teams QBs and look right here at home. Sorry OP this is a very good thread but it is mind numbing trying to read a decent thread about Romo these days and I admit that I jump into the Frey with both feet every time... Ex Navy, current construction worker... ( I love a good fight!)

 

[Cowboys22]

That's FOX Sports trying to control your thought processes. Without any context, the 74 seems like a low number. It's actually 10th among the 32 QB with the most attempts in that situation.

Also, in setting the parameters at 5 minutes, FOX chose Romo's lowest 4th-quarter rating possible. It's higher at any other interval. With 2 minutes remaining, he's 4th. With 7 minutes remaining, he's 5th. With 14 minutes remaining, he's 1st.

And on top of all that, the FOX graphic ignores more than half of clutch situations, because it leaves out 4th-quarter slim leads and the entirety of overtime.


Congratulations for coming to the precise conclusion that the FOX graphic was intended to lead you to. What you just said there is what FOX wanted you to believe by juxtaposing the two stats in their graphic.

That's why the stats in the OP are only from late-and-close situations.

Nice crop job of my post. I guess you didn't have any answer for the 2nd half which you ignored. Must not fit into your Romo is so clutch and a top tier QB because the stats say so agenda.

 

[Direwolf63]

I don't see how these posts always degenerate into bash, defend Romo posts. Here is a question, do those that say Romo's stats against Brady, Bree's, and whoever you want to throw in make him equal to or better than, has anyone ever compared his stats to Staubach and Aikman and are his stats better than theirs? I would assume they are so my question is... Is Romo a better QB than Staubach and Aikman, OUR Two HOF Qb's with lower overall ratings than our current QB. So let's forget the other teams QBs and look right here at home. Sorry OP this is a very good thread but it is mind numbing trying to read a decent thread about Romo these days and I admit that I jump into the Frey with both feet every time... Ex Navy, current construction worker... ( I love a good fight!)

What people don't seem to understand is that the disconnect between Romo's stats (excellent) and the teams results (mediocre) are due to other factors on the team since he's been the starter.

This team has never had a good defense to support their QB and the running game has been substandard. They have not had a 1,000 yard rusher since Romo has been the starter. That, to me is amazing.

If you want to look to why the teams record is the way it is since 2006, you have to look at many other directions before you look at Romo.

People need to decide whether they want to analyze personal statistics or team success. They are 2 very different things, especially when discussing Tony Romo.

 

[dstovall5]

Nice crop job of my post. I guess you didn't have any answer for the 2nd half which you ignored. Must not fit into your Romo is so clutch and a top tier QB because the stats say so agenda.

Romo is clutch and he's also in the top tier of QBs. Now his surrounding cast? Not so much.

 

[NJ22]

QB rating means nothing, but if it did I would take the guy who has an 83.3 rating and 3 SB rings over Romo.

QB rating means nothing..but did you know of the top rated QB's of all time, only 2 do not have rngs, yet, Romo and Rivers.

 

[percyhoward]

Nice crop job of my post. I guess you didn't have any answer for the 2nd half which you ignored. Must not fit into your Romo is so clutch and a top tier QB because the stats say so agenda.

I think you have to take the team into account when you're talking about a team stat like W-L. We had no business even being in the win-or-go-home games either of the last two years, based on the teams that we fielded both years. Teams that rank as low as we did in pass defense and rushing TD in consecutive years simply don't make it to 8 wins. Dallas is the only team that has done so two years in a row.

In the playoff games against the Giants and Vikings, our defense allowed well over a 125 rating (132.4 and 134.4). Since 1960, teams whose defenses allow more than a 125 rating in a playoff game are 0-67. In other words, no matter who your QB was or what he did in the game, when the opposing QB goes over 125.0, you lose. Same thing happened to Marino and Elway the 8 times their defenses allowed over a 125 rating in the playoffs (0-8).

So for four of the six games, you're talking about Romo as if you expected him to do something that no QB has ever done.