Late and Close: Career QB Comparison

[percyhoward]

There's honestly no reason to slam/bash Romo like they do, or even purposely deceiving fans trying to give Romo a bad rep.

I think they're $tirring controver$y.

 

[Hoofbite]

Pretty impressive. Try adding game outcome of "win" to the mix.

Romo goes up to 120.0 and Eli actually moves up to 115.8

One thing that sticks out is opportunity. Romo has a ridiculous number of attempts relative to other QBs who have played a lot more games. I wonder how much early game performance breeds the chance to rack up stats in these situations. If you are a slow starter are you more likely to have opportunities in games where a QB who comes out of the gate hot has done enough early on to negate such a chance?

In any event the numbers are impressive. When given the chance, he's making the most of them.

 

[ufcrules1]

I wonder how much early game performance breeds the chance to rack up stats in these situations. If you are a slow starter are you more likely to have opportunities in games where a QB who comes out of the gate hot has done enough early on to negate such a chance?

This is an excellent question. The stat game is fun to play and reveals a lot, but what it hides can be even more revealing.

 

[DandyDon1722]

Percy there is nothing I would love to see more than you, a chalkboard and Rodney Harrison. Shannon Sharpe, Marshall Faulk and Steven A Smith on a nationally televised debate.

Somebody would have to call 911 because you would murder them.

We'll done sir.

 

[ufcrules1]

We'll see what happens in December when the Season's on the line. Hopefully he'll be clutch.

Hopefully we don't get a repeat of 2012!

 

[ufcrules1]

In the 4th quarter and OT, when there's no more than an 8-point difference in the score, these are the top 10 pass ratings among the 32 QB with the most attempts:

Can you run this list again with a 7-point difference in the score? I'm curious how it would change.

 

[GusTheo]

Can you run this list again with a 7-point difference in the score? I'm curious how it would change.

I don't see how it would make much of a difference really. Every opportunity with a 7 point difference will also be an opportunity with an 8 point difference. The reason for the 8 is because that's the max for a single score. So I'm not sure how many scenarios will be eliminated by changing it from 8 to 7.

 

[Gameover]

Having Moss out there were all you had to do is put it up and let me go get it was a big help. Once moss was gone so was Culpepper

If that's the case, why didn't it work in Oakland?

Maybe his knee injury is the reason he was done?

 

[T-RO]

Precisely why I don't put a lot of stock into these QB ratings.

And precisely why you should. The fact that there is only one peculiarity in this stellar list of great quarterbacks tells you everything. It's an evidentiary slam dunk if ever there was one.

To be on this list is almost like being in the HOF. To be at the TOP of the list?

Don't miss this fact: Culpepper barely qualifies in terms of pass attempts. Schaub barely qualifies.

If we make the bar, 600 attempts...

Romo 388 of 608 5204 yd 37 td 15 int 100.9
PManning 577 of 904 6731 yd 47 td 24 int 92.6
Brees 530 of 814 6102 yd 38 td 27 int 89.3
Brady 467 of 786 5681 yd 35 td 25 int 83.3




This is a torrent of scalding hot water pouring down on any Romo critic.

 

[KB1122]

In the 4th quarter and OT, when there's no more than an 8-point difference in the score, these are the top 10 pass ratings among the 32 QB with the most attempts:

Romo           388 of 608 5204 yd 37 td 15 int 100.9
PManning       577 of 904 6731 yd 47 td 24 int  92.6
Culpepper      287 of 452 3680 yd 23 td 16 int  91.1
Brees          530 of 814 6102 yd 38 td 27 int  89.3
EManning       329 of 551 4392 yd 38 td 25 int  89.1
Roethlisberger 347 of 577 4395 yd 24 td 16 int  86.2
Schaub         295 of 470 3538 yd 17 td 14 int  85.4
Cutler         261 of 431 3129 yd 24 td 17 int  84.9
Palmer         337 of 558 3873 yd 25 td 17 int  83.6
Brady          467 of 786 5681 yd 35 td 25 int  83.3

The gap between Romo and the pack is bigger than the distance between 2nd and 8th. That gap will close when Rodgers comes back and plays in a late-and-close situation, because he is only a couple of attempts away from qualifying, and his rating is also over 100. But he has only a little more than half as many attempts as Romo in these situations.

So, are you arguing that Tony Romo isn't just not a choker, but is actually the greatest clutch quarterback of this era? Because you pretty much have to argue that. Or you have to admit that your numbers and assumptions are meaningless.

 

[DandyDon1722]

So, are you arguing that Tony Romo isn't just not a choker, but is actually the greatest clutch quarterback of this era? Because you pretty much have to argue that. Or you have to admit that your numbers and assumptions are meaningless.

No he doesn't.

All he has to do is admit this -- much like you do. Tony Romo is as clutch as the players around him. He's done his job even if the team hasn't and as much as fate hasn't been kind to him. You know the numbers on defensive help and if you don't Percy will crush you with them.

Joe Montana is clutch because Carl Williamson grabbed Drew Pearsons jersey by a fingertip or he's gone for one of the greatest TDs ever and the 49ers lose a championship game. Montana is also clutch because Loius Billups dropped a sure INT right in his hands the play before the TD to beat the Bengals in the Super Bowl or he loses that on a crushing INT. Add Eli to this list also as the benefactor of some great fortune.

Think about the games that stand out in Romo's career that people point to as him being a choker--

Steelers
Jets
Lions
Commanders
Broncos

Except for the Lions game All nationally televised high profile games. If you break those games down did the defense vail him out at all? Drew Bree's picks although just as crucial, were for the most part buried in regional telecasts.

Tom Brady has thrown 3 INTs on TWO separate AFC Championship games yet won them both -- can you explain that? Was that "clutch" -- please. And btw he is great and I believe the best ever.

I didnt include Seattle as it's a non quarterback play or the Giants playoff game as that was the same as a Hail Mary.

It's truly incomprehensible how some of you will try and dispute his greatness...and he is great -- or nitpick at disingenuous alternatives to his numbers.

Don't worry though unless we get really bad or really lucky Quincy Carter is looming once again and you will have plenty of numbers to dispute.

 

[percyhoward]

One thing that sticks out is opportunity. Romo has a ridiculous number of attempts relative to other QBs who have played a lot more games. I wonder how much early game performance breeds the chance to rack up stats in these situations.

You're confusing efficiency with production. You don't "rack up" a high passer rating, because passer ratings don't increase with more attempts. The more attempts the passer has, as long as INT%, TD%, completion%, and yards per attempt stay the same, passer rating stays the same. The only way to raise or lower it is to pass better or worse.

http://cowboyszone.com/threads/how-passer-rating-works.257965/

 

[percyhoward]

Can you run this list again with a 7-point difference in the score? I'm curious how it would change.

Romo 101.8
PManning 93.9
Culpepper 93.8
Brees 89.4
EManning 87.5

 

[percyhoward]

So, are you arguing that Tony Romo isn't just not a choker, but is actually the greatest clutch quarterback of this era? Because you pretty much have to argue that. Or you have to admit that your numbers and assumptions are meaningless.

I'd skip the hyperbole and just stick with my own understanding of it, rather than someone else's interpretation. It sounds like you grasp the significance of the numbers. Maybe you overrate the significance of "clutchness" itself. Not that there's much difference in Romo's case, anyway, but the whole game is important.

 

[Dodger12]

I cringed when Staubach retired but was pleasantly surprised with Danny White who is extremely underrated (followed a HOF QB and came close 4 times to taking us to the SB). Same when Danny White retired until we drafted Aikman. Then we had to suffer through this team's attempts to find a quality QB until Romo came along.

People better start appreciating what they're seeing with Romo because when he's gone, there's no Landry, Johnson, Parcells/Payton to find (and develop) the next QB. There are dark days on the horizon.

 

[dstovall5]

If that's the case, why didn't it work in Oakland?

Maybe his knee injury is the reason he was done?

I honestly don't think Moss in Oak was the same Moss in Min. It seemed like Moss didn't want to be in Oakland, and we all know how that works out ... And if I'm not mistaken he was injured most of his time there.

 

[85Cowboy85]

If that's the case, why didn't it work in Oakland?

Maybe his knee injury is the reason he was done?

Culpepper actually had his MVP season largely without Moss. Moss only had 767 yards that year and was hampered by injuries. For comparison Culpepper threw for 4717 yards 39 tds and 11 ints.

He was a good QB for about three years. His sophomore season in 2000 was excellent. He was bad 2001 and 2002. Then 2003 and 2004 he was elite again before falling off a cliff. My suspicion is the knee injury was a much bigger factor then the departure of Moss.

 

[Gameover]

Culpepper actually had his MVP season largely without Moss. Moss only had 767 yards that year and was hampered by injuries. For comparison Culpepper threw for 4717 yards 39 tds and 11 ints.

He was a good QB for about three years. His sophomore season in 2000 was excellent. He was bad 2001 and 2002. Then 2003 and 2004 he was elite again before falling off a cliff. My suspicion is the knee injury was a much bigger factor then the departure of Moss.

Great post!

 

[noshame]

This is an excellent question. The stat game is fun to play and reveals a lot, but what it hides can be even more revealing.

When your QB's passes travel less than ten yds to get to the receiver, while others are throwing deep stuff on a regular basis, it's easy to look grand on the stat sheet.

 

[Direwolf63]

When your QB's passes travel less than ten yds to get to the receiver, while others are throwing deep stuff on a regular basis, it's easy to look grand on the stat sheet.

So who's throwing deep stuff on a regular basis. Romo has one of the highest career YPA in history.

Every team throws lots of short stuff. The idea that Romo dinks and dunks while everybody else heaves it deep in simply incorrect.