Late and Close: Career QB Comparison

[percyhoward]

People need to decide whether they want to analyze personal statistics or team success.

I honestly think it's difficult for some to make that distinction.

 

[dstovall5]

I think you have to take the team into account when you're talking about a team stat like W-L. We had no business even being in the win-or-go-home games either of the last two years, based on the teams that we fielded both years. Teams that rank as low as we did in pass defense and rushing TD in consecutive years simply don't make it to 8 wins. Dallas is the only team that has done so two years in a row.

In the playoff games against the Giants and Vikings, our defense allowed well over a 125 rating (132.4 and 134.4). Since 1960, teams whose defenses allow more than a 125 rating in a playoff game are 0-67. In other words, no matter who your QB was or what he did in the game, when the opposing QB goes over 125.0, you lose. Same thing happened to Marino and Elway the 8 times their defenses allowed over a 125 rating in the playoffs (0-8).

So for four of the six games, you're talking about Romo as if you expected him to do something that no QB has ever done.

Does that really shock you though? A lot of people have unrealistic expectations for the guy. Even the best QBs like Manning, Rodgers, Brady, and Brees don't do it alone, they at least have some help. Yet, Romo is expected to carry a team all by himself when no other QB in the league is asked to do as much.

If you ask me, the guy putting the pieces around Romo is at fault for his failures, they've constantly put him in poor positions that you don't see other QBs in. That's just my take on the matter though.

 

[Idgit]

I think you have to take the team into account when you're talking about a team stat like W-L. We had no business even being in the win-or-go-home games either of the last two years, based on the teams that we fielded both years. Teams that rank as low as we did in pass defense and rushing TD in consecutive years simply don't make it to 8 wins. Dallas is the only team that has done so two years in a row.

In the playoff games against the Giants and Vikings, our defense allowed well over a 125 rating (132.4 and 134.4). Since 1960, teams whose defenses allow more than a 125 rating in a playoff game are 0-67. In other words, no matter who your QB was or what he did in the game, when the opposing QB goes over 125.0, you lose. Same thing happened to Marino and Elway the 8 times their defenses allowed over a 125 rating in the playoffs (0-8).

So for four of the six games, you're talking about Romo as if you expected him to do something that no QB has ever done.

Great post. And, for the life of me, I don't understand why this argument hasn't sunk in with everybody who posts on this board yet. It's verifiable. It's easy to understand. It explains what we see with Romo's performances. And it gives everybody who wants it something very legitimate to complain about. Why doesn't it ever take hold? I just don't get it.

 

[percyhoward]

Does that really shock you though?

Not at all, it's typical.

In a close game in the 4th qtr or OT, Romo completes a 50+ yard pass about once every 4 games.

Brees, Brady, and Manning between them do it about once every 12 games, and throw more INT than Romo in the process.

That stat is mind-blowing. That's what gets my attention -- not the same old back-and-forth ignorance, but that stat right there.

 

[WPBCowboysFan]

This is a discussion board for the COWBOYS after all, even though we have to discuss some other QB every time he loses a game...

Or we get his club members who always praise him and elevate him to some fairy tale status over OUR COWBOYS QB. Which is something I find strange on a Cowboys forum from Cowboys fans. Interesting that they have all avoided this thread. They continually pound their pseudo facts drum but yet in a thread like this where the facts are indisputable they are no where to be found, just like after the Cowboys win over the bums in blue Sunday.

 

[WPBCowboysFan]

Great post. And, for the life of me, I don't understand why this argument hasn't sunk in with everybody who posts on this board yet. It's verifiable. It's easy to understand. It explains what we see with Romo's performances. And it gives everybody who wants it something very legitimate to complain about. Why doesn't it ever take hold? I just don't get it.

Its called willful ignorance. They choose to believe what they want to believe.

 

[jobberone]

What people don't seem to understand is that the disconnect between Romo's stats (excellent) and the teams results (mediocre) are due to other factors on the team since he's been the starter.

This team has never had a good defense to support their QB and the running game has been substandard. They have not had a 1,000 yard rusher since Romo has been the starter. That, to me is amazing.

If you want to look to why the teams record is the way it is since 2006, you have to look at many other directions before you look at Romo.

People need to decide whether they want to analyze personal statistics or team success. They are 2 very different things, especially when discussing Tony Romo.

I think you need to analyze it all then look at it subjectively and objectively with a keen eye. If you're experienced enough you give weight in the proper way at the proper time utilizing head, heart and gut.

 

[DejectedFan1996]

Nice post as usual Percy.

Not trying to stir anything here as Romo has played well and I've made a few topics giving him his praise including the most recent quote I took for Trent Dilfer verbatim after rewinding my DVR 5 times. But I did come across these stats as well that I was completely unaware of:

*Tony Romo has more 4th quarter interceptions when the game is tied, or the Cowboys are up by a touchdown or less, than any other QB since 2006.

*In the first 12 minutes of 4th quarters, Romo’s Total QBR (ESPN’s proprietary QB rating) is 80. In the final 3 minutes it’s 44.

I also have to agree with Sarge when seeing Daunte Culpepper in that list. Almost makes me feel like it loses a little bit of its 'backbone' with him in there.

One other thing to mention (and this isn't a knock on Romo): How much would his 4th quarter QB rating be affected be if he attempted hailmarys at the end of ball games that are out of reach? I bring this up because I noticed Romo seldom throws a hailmary when a game is out of reach. Of course, the chances of this play being completed is extremely small, but it would have an affect on his QB rating if he attempted it like most QBs and it was intercepted, no?

As stated before, Romo's gaffe's are overblown based on where he plays and who he is. Fair or not, until he gets a ring, this is how the perception will be.

 

[percyhoward]

*Tony Romo has more 4th quarter interceptions when the game is tied, or the Cowboys are up by a touchdown or less, than any other QB since 2006.

100% true. Here's the tie at the "top"

INT
Romo 8
Brady 8
Ryan 8

Now here's why that "true" statement is also warped, diabolical, cherry-picking BS. Look at the entire stat line...

142 of 218 2229 yd 19 td 8 int 112.7

Those 19 TD are a full 6 TD more than anyone else over that span.

TD
Romo 19
Rodgers 13
Brady 11

The yardage total is 200+ more than anyone else, and the 112.7 rating is 2nd over that span.

Is Trent Dilfer just passing along the garbage that he's been fed, or is he a willing participant? There's no excuse either way.

 

[JPostSam]

I don't see how these posts always degenerate into bash, defend Romo posts. Here is a question, do those that say Romo's stats against Brady, Bree's, and whoever you want to throw in make him equal to or better than, has anyone ever compared his stats to Staubach and Aikman and are his stats better than theirs? I would assume they are so my question is... Is Romo a better QB than Staubach and Aikman, OUR Two HOF Qb's with lower overall ratings than our current QB. So let's forget the other teams QBs and look right here at home. Sorry OP this is a very good thread but it is mind numbing trying to read a decent thread about Romo these days and I admit that I jump into the Frey with both feet every time... Ex Navy, current construction worker... ( I love a good fight!)

doug williams has a super bowl ring. so does jim mcmahon. if you ask me whether i'd rather have tony romo or those two super bowl rings, the answer is obvious. but if you ask me whether i'd rather have either of those quarterbacks or tony romo, the answer to that is obvious, too.

 

[DejectedFan1996]

100% true. Here's the tie at the "top"

INT
Romo 8
Brady 8
Ryan 8

Now here's why that "true" statement is also warped, diabolical, cherry-picking BS. Look at the entire stat line...

142 of 218 2229 yd 19 td 8 int 112.7

Those 19 TD are a full 6 TD more than anyone else over that span.

TD
Romo 19
Rodgers 13
Brady 11

The yardage total is 200+ more than anyone else, and the 112.7 rating is 2nd over that span.

Is Trent Dilfer just passing along the garbage that he's been fed, or is he a willing participant? There's no excuse either way.

I'm not sure what you mean by what you just stated about Trent Dilfer. Trent Dilfer was defending Romo and I made a topic (check my history) posting the exact quote about Romo having to carry the team. I'm a little confused about what you just posted [in regards to Trent Dilfer]

Thanks for this. Thought there was something fishy about that stat line and even questioned it myself. Problem was, I didn't have any defense for it. Glad I have one now.

But back to the other question: Is there a way to determine what Romo's QB rating would be in the 4th quarter of certain games in which the Cowboys have the last possession and Romo opts out of throwing a hailmary? I ask because this is done quite often and I'm sure the 4th quarter rating would take a hit. How substantial of the hit is what I'm wondering, if substantial at all.

 

[percyhoward]

*In the first 12 minutes of 4th quarters, Romo’s Total QBR (ESPN’s proprietary QB rating) is 80. In the final 3 minutes it’s 44.

This is the same QBR that has Josh McCown at the top of the league right now. QBR is not passer rating. Passer rating and Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt have some of the highest correlations with winning of any individual stat. ESPN themselves have said that QBR is not intended to correlate with winning.

Here are the passer ratings for the last 3 minutes of the 4th quarter since 2006. (among the 32 QB with the most attempts)
Romo 93.4
Cassel 91.7
Rodgers 87.8
Brees 86.4
Cutler 85.5

And anyway. Why 3 minutes?

 

[PA Cowboy Fan]

We'll see what happens in December when the Season's on the line. Hopefully he'll be clutch.

 

[john van brocklin]

In the 4th quarter and OT, when there's no more than an 8-point difference in the score, these are the top 10 pass ratings among the 32 QB with the most attempts:

Romo           388 of 608 5204 yd 37 td 15 int 100.9
PManning       577 of 904 6731 yd 47 td 24 int  92.6
Culpepper      287 of 452 3680 yd 23 td 16 int  91.1
Brees          530 of 814 6102 yd 38 td 27 int  89.3
EManning       329 of 551 4392 yd 38 td 25 int  89.1
Roethlisberger 347 of 577 4395 yd 24 td 16 int  86.2
Schaub         295 of 470 3538 yd 17 td 14 int  85.4
Cutler         261 of 431 3129 yd 24 td 17 int  84.9
Palmer         337 of 558 3873 yd 25 td 17 int  83.6
Brady          467 of 786 5681 yd 35 td 25 int  83.3

The gap between Romo and the pack is bigger than the distance between 2nd and 8th. That gap will close when Rodgers comes back and plays in a late-and-close situation, because he is only a couple of attempts away from qualifying, and his rating is also over 100. But he has only a little more than half as many attempts as Romo in these situations.

Thanks for the quality info my man !

 

[dstovall5]

And that folks and gentleman is why you don't buy into the garbage that the media spits out, especially if it's regarding Romo/Dallas. Chances are, their stat is cherry picked and they're not showing the full story. It's honestly quite sad, Romo must've rejected one of their daughters or something. Because there's honestly no reason to slam/bash Romo like they do, or even purposely deceiving fans trying to give Romo a bad rep.

 

[Picksix]

I think you have to take the team into account when you're talking about a team stat like W-L. We had no business even being in the win-or-go-home games either of the last two years, based on the teams that we fielded both years. Teams that rank as low as we did in pass defense and rushing TD in consecutive years simply don't make it to 8 wins. Dallas is the only team that has done so two years in a row.

In the playoff games against the Giants and Vikings, our defense allowed well over a 125 rating (132.4 and 134.4). Since 1960, teams whose defenses allow more than a 125 rating in a playoff game are 0-67. In other words, no matter who your QB was or what he did in the game, when the opposing QB goes over 125.0, you lose. Same thing happened to Marino and Elway the 8 times their defenses allowed over a 125 rating in the playoffs (0-8).

So for four of the six games, you're talking about Romo as if you expected him to do something that no QB has ever done.

That's one aspect that contines to bother me. All anybody wants to talk about is Romo's performance in these "win or go home" games. Nobody ever talks about the rest of the team. Of course, that's par got the course with just about every QB. Brady has 3 SB's. Eli has 2. Peyton, Rodgers, Brees, Flacco all have a SB. Very little talk about all the help these guys got from their teams or coaches - help Romo has never really had. If any of those QBs had played for Dallas, none of them would have a ring.

In all of those games, how many big performances from anybody on the Cowboys can you think of?

 

[85Cowboy85]

Nice post as usual Percy.

Not trying to stir anything here as Romo has played well and I've made a few topics giving him his praise including the most recent quote I took for Trent Dilfer verbatim after rewinding my DVR 5 times. But I did come across these stats as well that I was completely unaware of:

*Tony Romo has more 4th quarter interceptions when the game is tied, or the Cowboys are up by a touchdown or less, than any other QB since 2006.

*In the first 12 minutes of 4th quarters, Romo’s Total QBR (ESPN’s proprietary QB rating) is 80. In the final 3 minutes it’s 44.

I also have to agree with Sarge when seeing Daunte Culpepper in that list. Almost makes me feel like it loses a little bit of its 'backbone' with him in there.

One other thing to mention (and this isn't a knock on Romo): How much would his 4th quarter QB rating be affected be if he attempted hailmarys at the end of ball games that are out of reach? I bring this up because I noticed Romo seldom throws a hailmary when a game is out of reach. Of course, the chances of this play being completed is extremely small, but it would have an affect on his QB rating if he attempted it like most QBs and it was intercepted, no?

As stated before, Romo's gaffe's are overblown based on where he plays and who he is. Fair or not, until he gets a ring, this is how the perception will be.

One thing I would point out is that the INT number is a volume statistic and not an efficiency statistic. Thus a QB who plays in many close games is going to have more interceptions. INT% would be more useful, but I would still think the overall picture painted by passer rating which also incorporates touchdowns thrown, completion percentage and yards paints a clearer picture.

Also while I personally think QBR is total garbage and should be totally ignored it's tough to know whether that 44 means anything without context. Percy already showed that the 75 passer rating while appearing low when put into context actually was a somewhat favorable number. It could be the same thing with QBR.

 

[percyhoward]

I'm not sure what you mean by what you just stated about Trent Dilfer. Trent Dilfer was defending Romo and I made a topic (check my history) posting the exact quote about Romo having to carry the team. I'm a little confused about what you just posted [in regards to Trent Dilfer]

My mistake, I thought you were attributing that quote to Dilfer. (Which did surprise me, because I usually agree with Dilfer)

Whoever said it or wrote it, that's an incredibly, intentionally misleading statement by a member of the media. Or by anybody, for that matter.

But back to the other question: Is there a way to determine what Romo's QB rating would be in the 4th quarter of certain games in which the Cowboys have the last possession and Romo opts out of throwing a hailmary? I ask because this is done quite often and I'm sure the 4th quarter rating would take a hit. How substantial of the hit is what I'm wondering, if substantial at all.

Not an issue.

In comeback situations, there are many more spikes to stop the clock than there are Hail Mary's. With that in mind, consider the following: Romo has 95 pass attempts inside one minute remaining in games in which he's tied or trailing by one score. That's 15 more attempts than any other QB since 2006, and 26 more than the guy who ranks 3rd. So it's a very safe bet that Romo has more spikes to stop the clock than any other QB during that time.
Those are all incompletions.

As for INT, all you really have to do is check to see if the other QB have a whole lot of INT in the final minute of games when they're trailing. None do. Brees has 2, Manning has 1, Brady has 1, etc.

Good question though.

 

[Jammer]

I think you have to take the team into account when you're talking about a team stat like W-L. We had no business even being in the win-or-go-home games either of the last two years, based on the teams that we fielded both years. Teams that rank as low as we did in pass defense and rushing TD in consecutive years simply don't make it to 8 wins. Dallas is the only team that has done so two years in a row.

In the playoff games against the Giants and Vikings, our defense allowed well over a 125 rating (132.4 and 134.4). Since 1960, teams whose defenses allow more than a 125 rating in a playoff game are 0-67. In other words, no matter who your QB was or what he did in the game, when the opposing QB goes over 125.0, you lose. Same thing happened to Marino and Elway the 8 times their defenses allowed over a 125 rating in the playoffs (0-8).

So for four of the six games, you're talking about Romo as if you expected him to do something that no QB has ever done.

I am printing this and carrying it with me to quiet the numerous Romo bashers I run into on a daily basis. Heck, I should print this entire thread to counter every argument there has been about Romo. I have to admit I've been a harsh critic of him before. I need to revisit this thread occasionally to keep me grounded. It could be so much worse.

 

[03EBZ06]

It really surprises me how so many people cannot or refuse to distinguish the difference between individual accomplishments and team accomplishments. I don't care what QB is, he simply cannot win a game by himself, to win a game, it takes all three components of a team and coaches. But the usual suspects on here and elsewhere can't seems to either grasp it or too obtuse to realize it.