Lions Exploring Trading Suh - Would You Want Him?

[Corso]

I'm sure you are. Do you think that this confidence makes you correct in your opinion here?

Wonderful debate!
This has become a darn good thread. I see both sides you and Xwalker are saying and I think I'm leaning towards your side of the coin on this.

Although I highly respect X's posts and knowledge on this and more.

Great stuff guys!

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

Wonderful debate!
This has become a darn good thread. I see both sides you and Xwalker are saying and I think I'm leaning towards your side of the coin on this.

Although I highly respect X's posts and knowledge on this and more.

Great stuff guys!

And you should Corso. X is one of the posters on this board, IMO, that deserves every bit of attention to his post he gets. I don't agree with him here but, I certainly respect his opinions.

 

[xwalker]

I'm sure you are. Do you think that this confidence makes you correct in your opinion here?

It's a high probability.

 

[xwalker]

Wonderful debate!
This has become a darn good thread. I see both sides you and Xwalker are saying and I think I'm leaning towards your side of the coin on this.

Although I highly respect X's posts and knowledge on this and more.

Great stuff guys!

Could you get by with trading a 3rd for Suh and paying him huge money? Yes.

The rule should be not to do it because repeating this type of move will definitely lead to cap problems. The draft picks are your primary cap management tool. You can't field a team where all of the contributors are veterans. It just would not fit under the cap.

When your talking about paying a guy 12M per season, that would buy a lot in free agency without having to give up any picks.

Making exceptions to good NFL team building practices is what has gotten Jerry into trouble over the years.

The second issue is that the odds are against the Cowboys being Super Bowl contenders this season. Why pay 12M for a player when the team has so many questions marks? It would be a better investment to spend that kind of money in a year where they are truely a player or two away. That could very well be 2015. You could spend 12M on one player in 2014 and again in 2015 OR you could spend Zero in 2014 and use all 24M on multiple players in 2015.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

It's a high probability.

Debatable, at the very least.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

Could you get by with trading a 3rd for Suh and paying him huge money? Yes.

The rule should be not to do it because repeating this type of move will definitely lead to cap problems. The draft picks are your primary cap management tool. You can't field a team where all of the contributors are veterans. It just would not fit under the cap.

When your talking about paying a guy 12M per season, that would buy a lot in free agency without having to give up any picks.

Making exceptions to good NFL team building practices is what has gotten Jerry into trouble over the years.

The second issue is that the odds are against the Cowboys being Super Bowl contenders this season. Why pay 12M for a player when the team has so many questions marks? It would be a better investment to spend that kind of money in a year where they are truely a player or two away. That could very well be 2015. You could spend 12M on one player in 2014 and again in 2015 OR you could spend Zero in 2014 and use all 24M on multiple players in 2015.

The 12m is not in stone. Lets say that the Cowboys work out a trade and are able to renegotiate a contract. It is very likely that the 12m can be spread out so I don't think it necessarily dictates a salary year that would be for 12m. It's possible but it's not in stone if a trade is made. If you look at his previous contract numbers, his previous salary, per year, was much more reasonable.

The other question here is, can you get a 27 year old Suh type talent in either the draft or in 2015? If the answer is no, then does it really matter if you save it till 2015?

 

[erod]

For a third, I might have to look a this because the need at his position is so immediately important.

But above that, no thanks.

 

[xwalker]

The 12m is not in stone. Lets say that the Cowboys work out a trade and are able to renegotiate a contract. It is very likely that the 12m can be spread out so I don't think it necessarily dictates a salary year that would be for 12m. It's possible but it's not in stone if a trade is made. If you look at his previous contract numbers, his previous salary, per year, was much more reasonable.

The other question here is, can you get a 27 year old Suh type talent in either the draft or in 2015? If the answer is no, then does it really matter if you save it till 2015?

Spreading it out is irrelevant. The Cowboys can restructure other contracts to fit the 12M into the 2014 cap. Teams manage the cap on a multiple year basis. Any cap space you use in 2014 is space that's not available in later years.

The reason his previous salaries were lower is because he received a signing bonus. His contract was 5 years for 62.5M which averages out to 12.5M per season.

Again, for 12M per year, you can sign just about any non-QB free agent that has ever hit free agency and it does not require any draft picks.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

Spreading it out is irrelevant. The Cowboys can restructure other contracts to fit the 12M into the 2014 cap. Teams manage the cap on a multiple year basis. Any cap space you use in 2014 is space that's not available in later years.

The reason his previous salaries were lower is because he received a signing bonus. His contract was 5 years for 62.5M which averages out to 12.5M per season.

Again, for 12M per year, you can sign just about any non-QB free agent that has ever hit free agency and it does not require any draft picks.

Obviously, money spent is spent. Not a revelation but what of it? If the player is of value, then why wouldn't you spend the cap? That, to me, is only logical. Why would you spend 12 million on two players who are not difference makers when you can spend 12 million (or whatever the number is) on a player that can help 10 other guys play much better?

Again, will you find a player/players in 2015 that will be as good as Suh?

 

[KDM256]

Seems like I am inthe minority on this topic but If the Cowboys can make the numbers work inthe Cap department, then Yes I would love to have Suh on this roster.

Suh is a player that opposing teams game plan for every week and this is exactly what the Cowboys need.

 

[iceberg]

Seems like I am inthe minority on this topic but If the Cowboys can make the numbers work inthe Cap department, then Yes I would love to have Suh on this roster.

Suh is a player that opposing teams game plan for every week and this is exactly what the Cowboys need.

it's what every NFL team needs, yet one is trading him off for one reason or another. somewhere along the line the need doesn't outweigh the cost. is suh a dominate player? yes. but we're 7 pages into this thread and he's still on the table.

he's set to make $12.2 mil this year and count $22.4 mil against the cap and so far, he's not showing up to OTA's. (what do voluntary mean?) maybe that's a rift, maybe he just doesn't wanna show up. the only place i've seen say the lions are out to trade him so far is the bleacher report. i put zero faith in a LOOK AT ME AT ANY COST site cause they're just nothing more than fans speculating. what the lions may be doing is just seeing what they *could* get for him if they can't resign him to a long term contract.

at this point, i don't think detroit is really interested in trading him.

 

[GimmeTheBall!]

Suh spelt backwards is Hus.

 

[GimmeTheBall!]

he's not showing up to OTA's.
.

It is called a bidness decision. Much like Ratliff, Spencer, et. al.
And that is something I do not like. Veterans no how to game the system and they and their agents do it well. What do voluntary means? Well, in the agent's world it do means voluntary and the veterans just smile.

 

[xwalker]

Obviously, money spent is spent. Not a revelation but what of it? If the player is of value, then why wouldn't you spend the cap? That, to me, is only logical. Why would you spend 12 million on two players who are not difference makers when you can spend 12 million (or whatever the number is) on a player that can help 10 other guys play much better?

Again, will you find a player/players in 2015 that will be as good as Suh?

Who is spending 12M each on players that are not difference makers?

The reality is that there is a salary cap. Teams have to manage the cap.

The Cowboys have to give new contracts to Dez and Tyron Smith. They have to "Manage" the cap to make that possible.

With 53 players, you can spend about 2.5M per player on average. For 1 player that averages 12M, you have to have multiple that make less than 2.5M for it to average out. If you have 1 player making 12M and 4 making 500k each each, that is 14M total for 5 players which still averages out over 2.5M. Obviously, it's more extreme when you consider the QBs salary which is more than 12M. Then you have Carr, Witten, Lee and Scandrick that are all over 2.5M. That requires a lot more players making less than 2.5M for it to average out. Then Dez and Tyron will be making about 10M or more.

The only way to have a talented and deep team is to get production from draft picks that make below the average.

When you trade premium draft picks for players making 12M, you are adding big money to the cap AND giving away your primary method of offsetting the big salary with inexpensive players because the draft picks are gone.

 

[Fredd]

I understand both sides of the coin here and I tend to side with XWalker on this one. But, a scenario that would make me somewhat happy is this (a lot of "if's"):

the trade
* If Dallas trades down in the first and picks up an extra 2nd or 3rd
* They take the highest of their 3rds (if two) and trade that to Detroit
* if Detroit wants more than that, tell them to pound sand...or AT MOST, offer them the extra 3rd and a 3rd for next year
- if they still say no, then walk away; he would be nice to have, but I want to AT LEAST have the same # of picks through 5 rounds, even if a few are a result of trade downs

the salary
* xwalker says they can restructure someone now, and sure they could...that just pushes money back again although that is not a big deal as they can do that forever if they really wanted to do so; and with the projected cap going up to $150m in future years, it would be manageable
* they could make the trade with a "window" to get a long-term (3 or 4 year) deal done to help cover the expense of his cap hit; if the team doesn't give the window or Suh doesn't want to sign a new deal, walk away


For Dallas to make a move, it has to be on their terms. One player doesn't put them over the hump, so this is a "nice to have" player, not a "must have" player

 

[HanD]

he's set to make $12.2 mil this year and count $22.4 mil against the cap and so far, he's not showing up to OTA's. (what do voluntary mean?) maybe that's a rift, maybe he just doesn't wanna show up.

i read that this is normal. Suh trains away from the lions every year during voluntary workouts so it isn't anything new or due only to the contract situation. The reason it came up was because he has a new coaching staff and more participation could help in learning the new staff and scheme quicker.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

Who is spending 12M each on players that are not difference makers?

The reality is that there is a salary cap. Teams have to manage the cap.

The Cowboys have to give new contracts to Dez and Tyron Smith. They have to "Manage" the cap to make that possible.

With 53 players, you can spend about 2.5M per player on average. For 1 player that averages 12M, you have to have multiple that make less than 2.5M for it to average out. If you have 1 player making 12M and 4 making 500k each each, that is 14M total for 5 players which still averages out over 2.5M. Obviously, it's more extreme when you consider the QBs salary which is more than 12M. Then you have Carr, Witten, Lee and Scandrick that are all over 2.5M. That requires a lot more players making less than 2.5M for it to average out. Then Dez and Tyron will be making about 10M or more.

The only way to have a talented and deep team is to get production from draft picks that make below the average.

When you trade premium draft picks for players making 12M, you are adding big money to the cap AND giving away your primary method of offsetting the big salary with inexpensive players because the draft picks are gone.

Not what I said. I said, 12 Million on a couple of players, as you suggested, that are not difference makers. I mean, lets face it, you don't get guys who can change the game for discounts. It takes money to sign those guys.

The reality is that we have thrown away money on players who did very little for us in the past. At least with a guy like Suh, you know he's going to be a difference maker. Clearly Dez and Tyron Smith are not enough. I agree and I fully understand that we have players we need to sign but nobody thought about that when we gave a ridiculous amount of money to Tony. Now, we can't sign a player who is better then Tony and would cost less because we have to sign other players? No, that doesn't pass the eye test to me. Again, nobody said that you would have to pay Suh 12 Million a year. You came up with that number, not by actually seeing what he was paid but by taking the total stated value of his contract and dividing it by the duration of the contract which is not accurate.

The original contract for Suh was only a three year deal with 13.755 Million Guaranteed. It was extended and added to later to create cap space and lock him in for more years. Here are the actual numbers he got paid in each year.

2010 - 320K Base plus 2.78 M Roster Bonus for a total of 3.1 M
2011 - 1.405 Base plus 7.195 M Roster Bounus plus 3.47M Option Bonus for a total of 12.07M
2012 - 540K Base plus 3.47 M Option Bonus plus 125M Workout Bonus plus 2.475 Restructure Money for a total of 6.61 M.
2013 - 630K Base plus 3.47M Option Bonus plus 125M Workout Bonus plus 6.2675 M Restructure Money for a total of 10.493M.

2014 is scheduled for 12.55M Base with 3.47M Option Bonus plus 125M Workout Bonus plus 6.2675M Restructure Money for a total of 22.412M and change but he's never going to see it because the Lions will probably restructure or move him. The money is not guaranteed.

2015 is a player option year.

So really, the Lions have paid him 5,707,325.00 on average for each of the 4 years he has been with the team. That's a very long way from 12 Million a year and these last years, he was clearly never going to see.

Let's stop talking about 12 Million a year because that was never the case and it's certainly not proven that it will take 12 Million a season to get this guy. It might, but I doubt it will.

As for trading premium picks, they are only premium if you draft the talent that turns them into premium picks. The 16th overall pick is not premium. In this draft, depending on who you listen to, there are probably only 6 to 8 premium players and the likelyhood of any of those players falling to 16 is slim. Those players are Clowney, Robinson, Mack, Watkins, Matthews, Evans and perhaps a QB or two, depending on how you value them on your board. We are not talking about a premium pick here. Heck, we might not even be talking about a 1st round pick for Suh, just depending.

Again I ask, who will you take at 16 who can improve our team as much as a player like Suh can, in this draft? Heck, there isn't even proof that anybody we take in this draft will be able to be a star in the NFL, let alone Suh.

I don't agree with you. If we could trade for Suh, I think we should do it.

 

[xwalker]

Not what I said. I said, 12 Million on a couple of players, as you suggested, that are not difference makers. I mean, lets face it, you don't get guys who can change the game for discounts. It takes money to sign those guys.

The reality is that we have thrown away money on players who did very little for us in the past. At least with a guy like Suh, you know he's going to be a difference maker. Clearly Dez and Tyron Smith are not enough. I agree and I fully understand that we have players we need to sign but nobody thought about that when we gave a ridiculous amount of money to Tony. Now, we can't sign a player who is better then Tony and would cost less because we have to sign other players? No, that doesn't pass the eye test to me. Again, nobody said that you would have to pay Suh 12 Million a year. You came up with that number, not by actually seeing what he was paid but by taking the total stated value of his contract and dividing it by the duration of the contract which is not accurate.

The original contract for Suh was only a three year deal with 13.755 Million Guaranteed. It was extended and added to later to create cap space and lock him in for more years. Here are the actual numbers he got paid in each year.

2010 - 320K Base plus 2.78 M Roster Bonus for a total of 3.1 M
2011 - 1.405 Base plus 7.195 M Roster Bounus plus 3.47M Option Bonus for a total of 12.07M
2012 - 540K Base plus 3.47 M Option Bonus plus 125M Workout Bonus plus 2.475 Restructure Money for a total of 6.61 M.
2013 - 630K Base plus 3.47M Option Bonus plus 125M Workout Bonus plus 6.2675 M Restructure Money for a total of 10.493M.

2014 is scheduled for 12.55M Base with 3.47M Option Bonus plus 125M Workout Bonus plus 6.2675M Restructure Money for a total of 22.412M and change but he's never going to see it because the Lions will probably restructure or move him. The money is not guaranteed.

2015 is a player option year.

So really, the Lions have paid him 5,707,325.00 on average for each of the 4 years he has been with the team. That's a very long way from 12 Million a year and these last years, he was clearly never going to see.

Let's stop talking about 12 Million a year because that was never the case and it's certainly not proven that it will take 12 Million a season to get this guy. It might, but I doubt it will.

As for trading premium picks, they are only premium if you draft the talent that turns them into premium picks. The 16th overall pick is not premium. In this draft, depending on who you listen to, there are probably only 6 to 8 premium players and the likelyhood of any of those players falling to 16 is slim. Those players are Clowney, Robinson, Mack, Watkins, Matthews, Evans and perhaps a QB or two, depending on how you value them on your board. We are not talking about a premium pick here. Heck, we might not even be talking about a 1st round pick for Suh, just depending.

Again I ask, who will you take at 16 who can improve our team as much as a player like Suh can, in this draft? Heck, there isn't even proof that anybody we take in this draft will be able to be a star in the NFL, let alone Suh.

I don't agree with you. If we could trade for Suh, I think we should do it.

Your numbers are completely wrong.

They paid him bonuses and spread out the cap hits into 2014 and a voidable year of 2015. All of the bonus money has already been paid and is therefore guaranteed. Only the 12.55M 2014 base salary is not guaranteed. The bonus money that hits the cap in 2015 has to be included in the average over 5 years because that year will void.

A player's average salary is how much money he received divided by the number of years that he is under contract in relation to that money. The fact that money is pushed into future years for cap purposes, does not change that fact.

If he plays out the contract, he will make 63.5M over 5 years which is an average of 12.7M per year.
If he were cut today and didn't receive the non-guaranteed 2014 base salary, then he would have averaged 12.738M per year over 4 years.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

Your numbers are completely wrong.

They paid him bonuses and spread out the cap hits into 2014 and a voidable year of 2015. All of the bonus money has already been paid and is therefore guaranteed. Only the 12.55M 2014 base salary is not guaranteed. The bonus money that hits the cap in 2015 has to be included in the average over 5 years because that year will void.

A player's average salary is how much money he received divided by the number of years that he is under contract in relation to that money. The fact that money is pushed into future years for cap purposes, does not change that fact.

If he plays out the contract, he will make 63.5M over 5 years which is an average of 12.7M per year.
If he were cut today and didn't receive the non-guaranteed 2014 base salary, then he would have averaged 12.738M per year over 4 years.

Here's where I got the information.

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/detroit-lions/ndamukong-suh/


Do you think I should bold it? Does that make it more correct if I do that or how does that work?

As I said before, at the end of the day, I don't agree with you.

 

[xwalker]

Here's where I got the information.

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/detroit-lions/ndamukong-suh/

Do you think I should bold it? Does that make it more correct if I do that or how does that work?

There is nothing wrong with the information on that site. It's how you added it up that is completely wrong.

I will use the simple scenario where he plays out the contract and then leaves as a free agent after 2015.
In this case you have to add up all of the numbers from 2010 to 2015 with the exception that the 2015 base = Zero. When you add all of those numbers together, it is 64.375M. Now to calculate the average, you have to use 5 years which is the number of years that he played. Using these Spotrac numbers, 64.375/5=12.875M which is even higher that what I said.

Summary: According to the numbers in Spotrac's table, he averaged 12.875M if he plays out the contract. He were cut and didn't receive the 2014 base of 12.55M, then the average over the 4 years he played would be even higher.