Looking Back: Tyron Smith or JJ Watt?

[WoodysGirl]

So this is really a debate? You guys are good at debating anything.

 

[RonSpringsdaman20]

So this is really a debate? You guys are good at debating anything.

they're actually terrible at it... but I will leave that up to debate

 

[KJJ]

Sacks are semi meaningless in a data set for predicting good defense(timing of sack important yes). QB pressure is a more relevant piece of info. IMO during the draft Tyron Smith made more sense, Watts talents were visible along with Tyron's and we were in desperate need of a Offensive Lineman. you can second guess all day it will only frustrate you, you make the choice on the best available data and Smith checked most of the boxes for us that year. Especially for need and future consideration. Wow we picked a perennial all pro how horrible(I jest). When Romo starts to slide in talent due to age and injury this argument will turn to Manziel vs Martin.

Sacks equal pressures they go hand in hand. If a DE is getting sacks then they're getting plenty of pressure. At the time of the draft Tyron made a lot more sense he was rated higher than Watt and the Cowboys were in the process of rebuilding their OL plus Ware was still playing at a high level. It would be silly to second guess the Cowboys decision because Tyron has turned into the player the Cowboys hoped he would be and no one knew at the time Watt would turn into the player he's become or he may have been drafted #1 overall.

 

[joseephuss]

My only comment on this would be that it would be very interesting to see us back in the 3-4 Defense with
Watt and Crawford/Hardy at DE
Ware and Gregory at OLB (Ware is tearing it up and healthy now that he's not a down lineman)
McClain and Lee at ILB

It's not like we wouldn't have found an adequate LT to protect Romo....we just wouldn't have a young pro bowler there.

There would be no Hardy on the team if Dallas had Ware and Watt. Dallas couldn't afford Hardy in that situation.

 

[perrykemp]

There would be no Hardy on the team if Dallas had Ware and Watt. Dallas couldn't afford Hardy in that situation.

They wouldn't need Hardy in a scenario where Watt / Ware were collectively sacking opposing QBs to the total of 25-30 sacks for a season.

 

[KJJ]

The only debate here is which player would help the Cowboys more Tyron or Watt? One argument has been the Cowboys never got very far with Ware but so far they haven't gotten any farther with Tyron. The strength of the team is the OL and the weakness of the team has been it's lack of a pass rush. It's put a lot of pressure on our secondary which has been an area of concern for years. It's the lack of a pass rush that got the Cowboys knocked out of the playoffs last season. Applying pressure to a limping Aaron Rodgers would have made the difference in that game he was given too much time and he shredded the defense. If you're going to swap players swap a player from an area of strength where you can afford to lose a player and add a great player to an area of weakness that's greatly contributed to the Cowboys missing the playoffs and being knocked out of the playoffs. It's not that difficult to find a big guy who can block and the LTs the Cowboys had prior to Tyron all did a good job. Watt brings more than sacks to the table he's terrific against the run and his wingspan has accounted for 16 passes batted down as of 2013.

There's a statistic that football outsiders have created called "the defeat" that accounts for any play that stops a conversion on third or fourth down whether it be a sack, a tipped pass or a tackle behind the line of scrimmage. Watt set the record for defeats in 2012 with 56. Von Miller had 39 defeats that season and Ray Lewis had 45 defeats in 1999. Watt is clearly the most dominate defensive player since Lawrence Taylor and his addition along with Hardy and Gregory would give the Cowboys the most fierce pass rush they've had in 20 years. To have a great pass rush you need pressure from different angles to collapse the pocket. You can't build a dominating defense with one great player it takes several solid players around them.

So far this season the OL has been somewhat of a disappointment. It was being said that any back could produce behind it and that hasn't been the case and I said months ago it wouldn't be because the back matters. Not only have they not opened up the gaping holes most expected but for the second year in a row our OL helped get Romo injured and on the shelf for half the season. I guess it could be argued we can't afford to lose Tyron with the OL not being as good as advertised. This debate is pure fantasy we know it won't happen so it's easy for most to stay with Tyron who's been a very solid player but if a swap was possible the thought of Watt and one side and Hardy on the other along with Gregory part of a rotation would be a nightmare for opposing offenses and QBs.

 

[fortdick]

Looking back on it, who would you rather have?

Would Romo's career be over had we not drafted Smith when we did by way of taking more hits and sacks?

Would JJ Watt be on the same level on our team?

I know this has been covered before, I just find it to be interesting.

Best (arguably) LT in the NFL, or best DT in the NFL?

We talking talking scheme or system?

 

[Blackspider214]

What year of his career did Ware score 5 td's?

Who cares. They both lead their teams to nothing.

 

[cowboyuptx]

Who cares. They both lead their teams to nothing.

What a close-minded way to look at it... I mean by this logic, Trent Dilfer is better than Tony Romo... I've played in a soccer game where my team lost 9-7, but I scored all 7 goals for my over-matched team... Was I not obviously the best player on either team that day? I was... It's almost always true for every level of competition, one player does not win titles, it takes an entire team.

 

[Macnalty]

Sacks equal pressures they go hand in hand. If a DE is getting sacks then they're getting plenty of pressure. At the time of the draft Tyron made a lot more sense he was rated higher than Watt and the Cowboys were in the process of rebuilding their OL plus Ware was still playing at a high level. It would be silly to second guess the Cowboys decision because Tyron has turned into the player the Cowboys hoped he would be and no one knew at the time Watt would turn into the player he's become or he may have been drafted #1 overall.

Overall sack numbers do not show what you want them to show. It is the degree of pressures that is important for a defense to be dominant or very good. 1/2 down sacks are not as important as 3/4 down sacks(exceptions occur such as a safety) and then remember there are coverage sacks so lumping them together loses some non trivial points.
A case in point, DeMarcus Ware, not a lot of his sacks were of the 3/4 down variety and hence the sack total did not really mean that much to the stoutness of the defense(others opinions not really mine). Missed assignment blocking happens frequently and should not count to the support of a strong defense(RB's mostly).
Sacks do not tell the story without context.
FYI I would of been fine during the draft if JJ Watts would of been chosen their talents were that close only the needs of the boys were different(we had Demarcus Ware).

 

[burmafrd]

The only debate here is which player would help the Cowboys more Tyron or Watt? One argument has been the Cowboys never got very far with Ware but so far they haven't gotten any farther with Tyron. The strength of the team is the OL and the weakness of the team has been it's lack of a pass rush. It's put a lot of pressure on our secondary which has been an area of concern for years. It's the lack of a pass rush that got the Cowboys knocked out of the playoffs last season. Applying pressure to a limping Aaron Rodgers would have made the difference in that game he was given too much time and he shredded the defense. If you're going to swap players swap a player from an area of strength where you can afford to lose a player and add a great player to an area of weakness that's greatly contributed to the Cowboys missing the playoffs and being knocked out of the playoffs. It's not that difficult to find a big guy who can block and the LTs the Cowboys had prior to Tyron all did a good job. Watt brings more than sacks to the table he's terrific against the run and his wingspan has accounted for 16 passes batted down as of 2013.

There's a statistic that football outsiders have created called "the defeat" that accounts for any play that stops a conversion on third or fourth down whether it be a sack, a tipped pass or a tackle behind the line of scrimmage. Watt set the record for defeats in 2012 with 56. Von Miller had 39 defeats that season and Ray Lewis had 45 defeats in 1999. Watt is clearly the most dominate defensive player since Lawrence Taylor and his addition along with Hardy and Gregory would give the Cowboys the most fierce pass rush they've had in 20 years. To have a great pass rush you need pressure from different angles to collapse the pocket. You can't build a dominating defense with one great player it takes several solid players around them.

So far this season the OL has been somewhat of a disappointment. It was being said that any back could produce behind it and that hasn't been the case and I said months ago it wouldn't be because the back matters. Not only have they not opened up the gaping holes most expected but for the second year in a row our OL helped get Romo injured and on the shelf for half the season. I guess it could be argued we can't afford to lose Tyron with the OL not being as good as advertised. This debate is pure fantasy we know it won't happen so it's easy for most to stay with Tyron who's been a very solid player but if a swap was possible the thought of Watt and one side and Hardy on the other along with Gregory part of a rotation would be a nightmare for opposing offenses and QBs.

the way you slobber over Watt compared to your years of contempt for Romo is truly hilarious.

 

[SuspectCorner]

It's not like Dallas blew the pick when they chose Tyron Smith. Far from it. Yep, Watt is a monster.

But, based purely on need at THAT particular time... the Cowboys absolutely nailed that pick.

 

[KJJ]

the way you slobber over Watt compared to your years of contempt for Romo is truly hilarious.

What's hilarious is you bringing Romo into this take your agenda and go away.

 

[KJJ]

Overall sack numbers do not show what you want them to show. It is the degree of pressures that is important for a defense to be dominant or very good. 1/2 down sacks are not as important as 3/4 down sacks(exceptions occur such as a safety) and then remember there are coverage sacks so lumping them together loses some non trivial points.
A case in point, DeMarcus Ware, not a lot of his sacks were of the 3/4 down variety and hence the sack total did not really mean that much to the stoutness of the defense(others opinions not really mine). Missed assignment blocking happens frequently and should not count to the support of a strong defense(RB's mostly).
Sacks do not tell the story without context.
FYI I would of been fine during the draft if JJ Watts would of been chosen their talents were that close only the needs of the boys were different(we had Demarcus Ware).

If a player has large sack totals they have a lot of near misses which means they're getting a lot of pressure. Sacks cause a loss in yards and put teams behind the chains in long down situations. Pressures can cause inaccurate throws and int's. Pass rushers are judged by their sacks totals that's what gets them voted into pro bowls and the HOF. The Cowboys released Demarcus Ware because of injuries but primarily because his 6 sacks in 2013 weren't enough to warrant the salary he was making. Already mentioned that Tyron was the right choice for the Cowboys in 2011 they were rebuilding their OL and had a great pass rusher in Ware who was coming off 19.5 sacks in 2011.

 

[Noryb]

Imagine what the Falcons score would be it the Texans didn't have Watt!

 

[slomoxn]

Not that we can't and haven't lost with stellar oline play but looking at Houston get beat raggedy by Atlants I'm fine with Smith. Would Watt even be what he is there here

 

[sideon]

Not that we can't and haven't lost with stellar oline play but looking at Houston get beat raggedy by Atlants I'm fine with Smith. Would Watt even be what he is there here

The team with the so called best defensive player in the game is getting it's head kicked in.

 

[burmafrd]

What's hilarious is you bringing Romo into this take your agenda and go away.

actually it is very much to the point. You slobber all over the place about how obvious it is that Watt is the greatest player in the NFL.

Yet you are so football knowledge deficient you could not see how obvious it was how great Romo was when faced with all he had to deal with.

All Watt has to do is get past a O lineman to achieve something.

Romo has to have blocking, a good play call, RBs and WRs and others doing their jobs for him to do his. All that BEFORE he does anything himself. Oh by the way also call audibles as well.

What does Watt have to do? Just beat a O lineman. Not much else. And he does not have to rely on anyone else either.

So maybe its not surprising that you do not have the capability to recognize something that intricate and complex.

 

[Macnalty]

If a player has large sack totals they have a lot of near misses which means they're getting a lot of pressure. Sacks cause a loss in yards and put teams behind the chains in long down situations. Pressures can cause inaccurate throws and int's. Pass rushers are judged by their sacks totals that's what gets them voted into pro bowls and the HOF. The Cowboys released Demarcus Ware because of injuries but primarily because his 6 sacks in 2013 weren't enough to warrant the salary he was making. Already mentioned that Tyron was the right choice for the Cowboys in 2011 they were rebuilding their OL and had a great pass rusher in Ware who was coming off 19.5 sacks in 2011.

Not concerned with what it takes to make the HOF or Pro bowls for players only what a sack is worth to the defense.
A sack on 4th and 5 with the game on the line late in the 4th quarter is patently far more valuable than one on 1st and 10 in the 1st quarter. Players can't control when their sacks, or any other types of plays, come. Although it did seem like Charles Haley could summon that talent in his glory days.
I think the best way to measure the value of a sack is by first down likelihood. On a third down the sack typically forces a kick, which can be a field goal attempt or a punt. 1st down and 2nd down sacks change the chances for a 1st down conversion in less direct way. A sack results in an average loss of 5.2 yards.
A 1st down and 10 results in another 1st down 67% of the time, a sack that forces a 2nd and 15 changes the chance to 38%. A sack on 2nd and 5, that forces a 3rd and 10, changes the chance of a 1st down from 75% to 35%. A sack drops an offense's chances of converting a 1st down by roughly 30 %(easy to remember). We can apply the very same principle to any plays for a loss. The effect of a 3-yard loss on a run is very similar to that of a 3-yard sack, but not identical. A runner is normally in a protective mode for the ball whereas a QB must be more vulnerable for what he needs to achieve.
Field position is important. A sack near the 35 yard line can put a team outside of field goal range, forcing a punt. In other cases, it might force a longer more difficult FG kick. Just appraising the obvious.
If we average the expected points of all situations in which there wasn't a sack, and compare it with the average expected points following plays that did result in a sack, we get a difference of 2.0 points. In effect, a sack swings the balance of the game by an average of 2 points in favor of the defense, either by forcing a punt or a longer FG attempt, or even just putting a team in a expected passing circumstance. Big power for a single play. A turnover is typically worth 4 points, so a sack could be recognized as half as exceptional as a fumble or interception.
One reason sacks are so valuable as you stated is that they often result in fumbles. Even if a quarterback isn't tackled, if he's coerced to fumble, even just by a hair, that's technically counted as a sack. So when we take fumbles out of the equation, sacks are worth an average of 1.7 anticipated points. It's the probability of a fumble that makes up the extra 0.3 points.
So I state once again all sacks are not equal and is not a good way to define a player. How many are cleanup sacks remember...

 

[Irvin88_4life]

What a close-minded way to look at it... I mean by this logic, Trent Dilfer is better than Tony Romo... I've played in a soccer game where my team lost 9-7, but I scored all 7 goals for my over-matched team... Was I not obviously the best player on either team that day? I was... It's almost always true for every level of competition, one player does not win titles, it takes an entire team.

That is by point. It takes a team to win, picking Tyron was and still is the best for our team