Recommended Loss Forensics: Romo vs. the League's Top QB

[percyhoward]

I think the cowboys offense was ranked 2nd to worst in the NFL in converting 3rd downs.

Most of those failed 3rd downs im guessing were pass plays. That has to reflect on the QB in some way. So how can Romo have such good passing rating when his offense was 2nd worst in converting 3rd downs ?

I dont have an answer for this but we could speculate on possible theories.

Looking into this may also give an understanding as to why there are such widely varied oppinions on the quality of his play.

For Romo to have such good stats and passer rating but be poor at converting 3rd downs logic would dictate he is completing a lot of passes on first and second down.

If that is true then why is he better at passing on those downs ? I dont have an answer for that.


As a fan I have watched games and by the end of the game I have felt very frustrated with the cowboys offense that often seems to get going in spurts with big plays but sputters out before getting into the red zone by failing to convert a key 3rd down.

Then when i see the stat lines the next day I think - Oh, those are decent numbers. Romo had a good performace when looking at overall numbers..... but the team just didnt get it done.

And the defense was bad last year, but the offense had so many drives that stalled out with a 3 and out just before they could get close to scoring. So i cant say the offense played great last year. They play in spurts, they have some great playmakers and they make a lot of big plays that wow you but then they go 3 and out on the same drive. They aren't able to maintain drives for some reason.

This is exactly what will lead to big stat numbers for individual players but no wins.

For example... witten could have a 12 catch 100 yard game and catch 2 passes on 6 seperate drives but every one of those drives could end in a punt.... so zero points for all that production from your all pro TE. And the same could be said for Romo and the other skill players. They all make plays and end up with decent stats but they waste so many opportunities.

This has been the picture of the cowboys offense for several years. They get moving with some great plays, then there is a sack or a dropped pass or someone holds and they cant overcome the loss of those 10 yards ending up in 3rd and long that they dont convert = punt.

They look like a group of talented skill players that cant play together on the same page.

We don't have to speculate about anything. 3rd down conversion % tells you what happened on 18% of Dallas' offensive plays, and completely ignores the other 82%. And I included first down % along with big plays in the OP specifically in anticipation of your comment. I get the feeling you didn't read the OP, or didn't understand that part of it.

 

[Doomsday101]

Where are elimination/playoff game statistics readily available for a comparison?

Romo post season numbers is 80 out of 135 with 4 TD and 2 ints.

 

[percyhoward]

Check the below link. They've been the 5th worst in football over the past 4 years. Only Oakland, Buffalo, Jacksonville, and Minnesota have been worse. In those 4 seasons Oakland has averaged 6 wins per season, Buffalo has averaged 5.5 wins, Jacksonville 4.75 wins and Minnesota 6 wins.

http://www.pro-football-reference.c...&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=points_opp

Great post.

 

[Super_Kazuya]

Which is why Wilson has a ring, and Romo will never sniff one. Romo can't be trusted to come through in the clutch. He doesn't throw two stupid INT's against Denver and Green Bay, we're probably a playoff team.

And if he doesn't bring them back in the other games, then it doesn't matter. Same old simple Simon Section000.

 

[Alexander]

Nothing beats the smell of a Romo thread in the late afternoon.

 

[KJJ]

Where are elimination/playoff game statistics readily available for a comparison?

Go to NFL.com or Pro Football Reference and do a comparison.

 

[gmoney112]

All of that is true. But the thing that alot of people ignore or dont even mention is in 2007 Dallas was ranked 3 on offense and 9 on defense. And when it mattered Romo laid a egg. Giants had 253 total yrds on offense in the game. Scored 21 points. Dallas had 154 yrds rushing. Romo had 201 yrds passing and 1 td and 1 int.

Romo is a good QB nobody can dispute that. But he just seems like a QB who cant win a big game. People point to 2012-2013 as the bases for Romos career, ignoring the fact that Romo has had complete teams in his career.

The 2007 team was the only team in recent memory who even had a shot at the Super Bowl. That was a good team, mainly in part to a dominant offensive line and a front 7 on defense that teams actually feared. Having TO out wide certainly helped too.

If you want to place blame in that game, place it on Patrick Crayton's butter fingers, Glenn's hobbled leg, and us not running the ball enough when we were destroying them on the ground. Romo played well enough to win that game, if you can watch that game objectively and still say Romo lost it, well that's certainly your opinion, but I believe it's incorrect.

Plus, you're definitely taking away from the Giants when you say "Romo laid an egg". They had a historical run in those playoffs and played their butts off. I hate the Giants but when you beat Tom Brady's undefeated Patriots in the Super Bowl, the stars have aligned for you.

 

[Doomsday101]

We don't have to speculate about anything. 3rd down conversion % tells you what happened on 18% of Dallas' offensive plays, and completely ignores the other 82%. And I included first down % along with big plays in the OP specifically in anticipation of your comment. I get the feeling you didn't read the OP, or didn't understand that part of it.

One thing 3rd down conversions do not tell is distance. If you are facing 3rd and 2 chances are you will convert more often than the team with 3rd and 7 or longer. In that 3rd and short defense has to pretty much play honest pass and run, in 3rd and longer situation defense pretty much knows you have to throw to convert and so they will call blitzes and zone blitzes.

 

[PA Cowboy Fan]

All of that is true. But the thing that alot of people ignore or dont even mention is in 2007 Dallas was ranked 3 on offense and 9 on defense. And when it mattered Romo laid a egg. Giants had 253 total yrds on offense in the game. Scored 21 points. Dallas had 154 yrds rushing. Romo had 201 yrds passing and 1 td and 1 int.

Romo is a good QB nobody can dispute that. But he just seems like a QB who cant win a big game. People point to 2012-2013 as the bases for Romos career, ignoring the fact that Romo has had complete teams in his career.

The problem is that Romo never elevates his game in the win and go home games.Sometimes he's bad and sometimes he's average. I don't even pay much attention to his games as far as stats go until after Thanksgiving because I've seen it all before. He's good during the first few months of the year until the pressure gets to him. I'd love to see him play a game like he had against Denver in one of those late season games. Aside from the interception. lol And you're right about that. Romo hasn't always had a defense this bad. He's always had a pretty good offense although Garrett's playcalling at time sucks. And no It's not all Romo's fault but he is part of the problem.

 

[Nation]

Go to NFL.com or pro football reference and do a comparison.

Neither site has Elimination Games as a category anywhere

 

[percyhoward]

One thing 3rd down conversions do not tell is distance. If you are facing 3rd and 2 chances are you will convert more often than the team with 3rd and 7 or longer. In that 3rd and short defense has to pretty much play honest pass and run, in 3rd and longer situation defense pretty much knows you have to throw to convert and so they will call blitzes and zone blitzes.

I think people sometimes fall into the trap of thinking a conversion on 3rd is somehow worth more than a conversion on 1st or 2nd.

 

[LatinMind]

The 2007 team was the only team in recent memory who even had a shot at the Super Bowl. That was a good team, mainly in part to a dominant offensive line and a front 7 on defense that teams actually feared. Having TO out wide certainly helped too.

If you want to place blame in that game, place it on Patrick Crayton's butter fingers, Glenn's hobbled leg, and us not running the ball enough when we were destroying them on the ground. Romo played well enough to win that game, if you can watch that game objectively and still say Romo lost it, well that's certainly your opinion, but I believe it's incorrect.

Plus, you're definitely taking away from the Giants when you say "Romo laid an egg". They had a historical run in those playoffs and played their butts off. I hate the Giants but when you beat Tom Brady's undefeated Patriots in the Super Bowl, the stars have aligned for you.

You missed the point. Im not arguing the fact that he didnt win the superbowl. Im saying Dallas has had teams that couldve won the superbowl. Because people seem to think that Dallas has had defense like 2012-2013 for Romos entire career.

 

[LatinMind]

The problem is that Romo never elevates his game in the win and go home games.Sometimes he's bad and sometimes he's average. I don't even pay much attention to his games as far as stats go until after Thanksgiving because I've seen it all before. He's good during the first few months of the year until the pressure gets to him. I'd love to see him play a game like he had against Denver in one of those late season games. Aside from the interception. lol And you're right about that. Romo hasn't always had a defense this bad. He's always had a pretty good offense although Garrett's playcalling at time sucks. And no It's not all Romo's fault but he is part of the problem.

What i dont understand is why he struggles so much in cold weather games. He's from wisconsin and went to eastern illinois. Is he a diva?

 

[percyhoward]

Since 2011 Romo has 8 int's in one possession games which leads all QB's.

How many TD?

 

[Doomsday101]

I think people sometimes fall into the trap of thinking a conversion on 3rd is somehow worth more than a conversion on 1st or 2nd.

I think moving the chains be it 1st down or 3rd down is important and while 3rd down conversation are not the be all stat it is important to keep the drive going. Last season Dallas 180 attempts was the fewest of any team in the NFL and we converted 35 percent league avg around 37 percent. One thing I would like to say though is those conversations become a lot more critical late in close games

 

[gmoney112]

You missed the point. Im not arguing the fact that he didnt win the superbowl. Im saying Dallas has had teams that couldve won the superbowl. Because people seem to think that Dallas has had defense like 2012-2013 for Romos entire career.

I believe the point of your post was to convey that the rest of the team was good enough to win that game, and Romo simply botched it. I disagreed and pointed out several reasons why that conclusion would be incorrect. That's all.

 

[Doomsday101]

What i dont understand is why he struggles so much in cold weather games. He's from wisconsin and went to eastern illinois. Is he a diva?

Despite those numbers, David Moore of the Dallas Morning News did offer up a defense of Romo in December in this piece. Here is an excerpt:

“The direction of Romo’s arrow does not always determine success. Remember all the injuries the Cowboys’ defense endured in the final five games of last season? The arrow was definitely pointing down on that front.


“Romo actually has some pretty good numbers in December. Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers is the only other quarterback with a higher December rating the last four seasons. Romo was outstanding last December until a brutal performance against the Washington Commanders in the season finale.”


Source: http://www.nbcchicago.com/blogs/gri...into-Play-Monday-234619261.html#ixzz36RTLRn5F

 

[dstovall5]

Which is why Wilson has a ring, and Romo will never sniff one. Romo can't be trusted to come through in the clutch. He doesn't throw two stupid INT's against Denver and Green Bay, we're probably a playoff team.

Wilson has a ring because he wears a Seattle Seahawks jersey, and that's the only reason. Also to even bring up that Denver game is just foolish, Romo played lights out. That GB game Romo did throw two terrible interceptions, but do you think he throws those if we're running the ball? I think we can all agree that play calling was a huge deciding factor in that game.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/quarterbackRating

Every QB within the top 20 of the link I posted would've won last year with Seattle. Russel Wilson is a very good young QB, but he's not the reason that team wins games.

 

[5Stars]

I got exhausted just scrolling through all that. I certainly didn't read any of it I'm just going to assume based on your posting history it's just more "regular season" stats along with a bunch of passer ratings that place Romo amongst the elite QB's of today and throughout history. I don't need to do forensics or post a lengthy page full of stats to expose why Romo carries the stigma he does. His career (regular season) passer rating is 95.8 which is 5th all-time and his playoff passer rating is only 80.8. During the regular season Romo averages around 278 yards a game compared to just over 208 yards during the playoffs. Since 2011 Romo has 8 int's in one possession games which leads all QB's.

OMG...lmao...you do that all the freaking time! You're actually the worse poster that does that. Your posts are long and full of stats or garbage to discredit Romo. smh

 

[LatinMind]

I believe the point of your post was to convey that the rest of the team was good enough to win that game, and Romo simply botched it. I disagreed and pointed out several reasons why that conclusion would be incorrect. That's all.

Dallas last 4 drives in the 2007 playoffs game. Dallas had 5 2nd half possessions

3 plays for -3 yrds punt
8 plays for 26 yrds punt
6 plays for 5 yrds punt
7 plays for 25 yrds int

Giants last 3 possessions

3 plays for 9 yrds punt
3 plays for 2 yrds punt
1 plays -1 yrds end of game

So its not like Dallas wasnt stopping them.