Recommended Loss Forensics: Romo vs. the League's Top QB

[Hoov]

That is absolutely not true. Wilson is by far the most efficient QB in the league. Romo would find ways to put Seattle in a hole like he does here with the Cowboys. You just have to look at his performance against the Packers last season. He was the reason why the Packers got back into that game with those two INT's. Classic Tony Romo

I agree with some of this. Wilson comes up big in clutch situations.

 

[Nation]

I want to know the ppg the defense has allowed the past 4 years. I bet it isn't as bad as you people are making it out to be.

Check the below link. They've been the 5th worst in football over the past 4 years. Only Oakland, Buffalo, Jacksonville, and Minnesota have been worse. In those 4 seasons Oakland has averaged 6 wins per season, Buffalo has averaged 5.5 wins, Jacksonville 4.75 wins and Minnesota 6 wins.

http://www.pro-football-reference.c...&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=points_opp

 

[Doomsday101]

Colts in 2010 - 24.2, 2011 - 26.9, 2012 - 24.2, 2013 - 21.0.

Made the playoffs 3 out of 4 times.

Notice the difference a QB makes. Did anyone make excuses for Luck in the playoffs against the Chiefs when the Colts defense gave up 44 points with 1/3 of the starters on the IR? Nope. Luck carried the team and outscored the Chiefs. The thing that is embarrassing is that Luck is a 2nd year player. 10+ year veteran "elite" QB Tony Romo would have scored 3 points like he did against the Vikings in 2009.

I think Luck is an elite QB, where did I say Romo was elite? I think Romo is a very good QB

 

[KJJ]

Romo has ranked among the league's top 10 rated passers seven consecutive seasons. Since the only QB with more consecutive top 10 seasons in the NFL-- Montana, Fouts, Young, Manning (whose streak continues), and Brady (whose ended last year) -- are all Hall of Famers, people think there must be something misleading about the stat, at least as it applies to Romo. Break down pass rating into its component parts, and you can see that there's nothing mysterious about it. It measures four elements on a per-attempt basis: TD, INT, completions, and yards.

Since 2010, no team has lost more close games than the Cowboys. In this analysis of why Dallas hasn't posted a winning record the last four seasons, those four elements are isolated (along with some others, including two stats involving the QB that aren't a part of pass rating -- sacks and lost fumbles) in the 4th quarter or overtime of the Cowboys' close losses.

in losses (2010 - 2013)
among NFL's top 10 rated passers with 1800+ attempts
4th qtr or OT, score + or - 8 points
(includes playoffs)

First, here they are ranked by pass rating. Again, that's just TD, INT, completions, and yards.
Player...Att/TD%/Int%/YPA/Rtg
Romo ..... 222 / 5.0 / 4.5 / 7.8 / 83.1
Rodgers...136 / 2.2 / 1.5 / 7.0 / 83.1
Roethbgr..136 / 4.4 / 2.9 / 7.0 / 77.9
Brees ......142 / 3.5 / 4.9 / 6.9 / 66.7
Stafford....201 / 3.0 / 3.0 / 5.9 / 63.2
Ryan........196 / 0.5 / 3.6 / 6.1 / 58.8
PManning.. 94 / 3.2 / 7.4 / 6.4 / 57.3
Brady........162 / 3.1 / 4.3 / 5.7 / 56.6
EManning. 116 / 5.2 / 7.8 / 6.8 / 53.2
Rivers...... 232 / 0.4 / 6.5 / 5.9 / 44.7

The first thing you may notice is that their number of pass attempts varies greatly. Some of these players were involved in more losses than others. Since these are all highly-rated QB, most of that difference is explained by the quality of the players around them, or by games missed due to injury.

Romo heads the list, hundredths of a rating point in front of Rodgers. This is traditional passer rating, so sacks and fumbles don't count. They're examples of what someone is talking about when they say "Stats don't tell the whole story." Of course, sacks and fumbles are also stats. They're recorded, they just aren't part of pass rating. So let's count them. Instead of pass attempts, I'll look at total dropbacks. Instead of INT, I'll look at all QB turnovers.

This will be our starting point. Touchdowns vs. turnovers, as a perecentage of all dropbacks. To see the effect of sacks and fumbles, compare Romo's 5.0 TD% above (pass attempts only) to his 4.8 below (pass attempts + sacks), for example. Also compare his 4.5 INT% above to his 5.2 turnover % below. Then, most importantly, look at the differential.

Touchdown Percentage
(the percentage of all dropbacks resulting in TD)
EManning 4.9
Romo 4.8
Roethbrgr 3.9
Brees 3.3
PManning 3.2
Brady 2.9
Stafford 2.8
Rodgers 2.0
Ryan 0.5
Rivers 0.4

Turnover Percentage
(the percentage of all dropbacks resulting in an INT or lost fumble)
Rodgers 1.3
Roethbrgr 3.3
Stafford 3.3
Brady 4.1
Ryan 4.4
Brees 4.7
Romo 5.2
PManning 7.3
EManning 7.3
Rivers 7.5

Differential
Roethbrgr +14.1
Romo +12.8
Rodgers +8.8
Stafford +6.4
EManning +5.1
Brees +4.3
Brady +3.9
PManning -6.8
Ryan -14.1
Rivers -27.2

If I wanted to mislead, I could mention just one of these two categories--either TD or turnovers. You absolutely must look at both of them together. Even better, see the differential.

Although we've all seen the statistic "TD/INT Ratio," TD and turnovers are not equal values, because not all turnovers either cost the offense a touchdown, or result in a touchdown for the opponent. Turnovers have been found to be worth 4 points, while TD are obviously worth 7. Accordingly, I multiply Eli's TD% by 7 and his turnover% by 4, then subtract to get his +5.1 differential.

High touchdown and turnover totals are the sign of a QB who takes more risks (see Eli) in late-and-close situations. Likewise, a QB with fewer turnovers (Rodgers) often has fewer TD as well because he is playing it safe in these situations. (As some have suggested, maybe too safe, when you look at his sack totals in the losses.) Rodgers has avoided late turnovers in close losses, but they're still losses, and the Packers' poor W-L record when trailing late is partly due to his risk aversion (and partly due to his defense, as you'll see later.)

Late in close losses, Romo's TD/TO differential is 2nd best among these top quarterbacks. What this means is that when their team lost a close game, Big Ben and Romo have played relatively well in the 4th quarter with regard to touchdowns and turnovers -- not the only parts of the game, but two big ones.

The next two categories are yards per dropback and sacks, two statistics which you don't see in a passer rating. Since sacks are very often not the fault of the QB, I did not subtract sack yardage from the QB's yardage total, I just counted the sack as a 0-yard completion.

Yards Per Dropback (sacks are counted as pass attempts)
Romo 7.6
Brees 6.5
EManning 6.4
PManning 6.3
Rodgers 6.3
Roethbrgr 6.3
Ryan 5.8
Stafford 5.5
Rivers 5.4
Brady 5.4

Sack Percentage
(the percentage of all dropbacks resulting in a sack)
PManning 2.1
Romo 3.5
Brady 4.7
Brees 5.3
EManning 5.7
Stafford 6.5
Ryan 7.1
Rivers 7.9
Rodgers 10.1
Roethbrgr 10.5

Again, you want your QB to rank in the top half of both of those lists. It's easier to keep your sacks down with short passes and throwaways, but since those count as attempts, your YPA will suffer (see Brady). Romo ranks in the top two of both lists, and is really in a class by himself in the first one. We're still talking late in close losses.

Note that two of the best QB in the TD/TO differential (Roethlisberger and Rodgers) are the bottom two in sacks. Rodgers took only half as many sacks late in close wins (5.3) as in close losses (10.1) the last four seasons. Big Ben's sack percentage was actually higher in their wins. Romo's was about the same in the wins (4.1) as losses (3.5).

If sacks and all turnovers were a part of passer rating, the net effect on Romo's would be positive. And that's late in close losses. Also, if you haven't been keeping track, Romo and Brees are the only players who rank in the top 7 of all the lists we've seen so far.

Plays of 30+ yards as a percentage of total dropbacks
EManning 5.7% (7 of 123)
Romo 4.8% (11 of 230)
Stafford 2.8% (6 of 215)
Rodgers 2.0% (3 of 151)
Ryan 2.0% (4 of 204)
Roethbrgr 1.3% (2 of 152)
Brees 1.3% (2 of 150)
Brady 1.2% (2 of 170)
PManning 1.0% (1 of 96)
Rivers 0.8% (2 of 252)

First Down Percentage
PManning 40.6% (8.36 to go)
Romo 33.5% (9.33 to go)
Brady 33.5% (9.08 to go)
Rodgers 31.8% (8.79 to go)
Roethbrgr 30.3% (9.45 to go)
Brees 30.7% (9.59 to go)
Rivers 29.8% (9.17 to go)
Ryan 27.5% (8.71 to go)
Stafford 25.1% (9.60 to go)
EManning 24.4% (9.28 to go)

Both lists are about yards, whether in large or small chunks. Yards in the 4th quarter or OT of close games that these QB's teams ultimately lost.

The first list explains itself. The second list is about possession -- it's the percentage of pass plays that result in a first down (with the average yards to go on those plays). Again we see the feast-or-famine that is Eli. A ton of big plays, not many first downs. Proving that yes you can have both, only Romo ranks among the top 3 in both lists, which is to be expected from a QB whose yards per play is on another planet.

Peyton's first down percentage dominates, but moving the chains is not his problem in close losses--it's his poor TD/turnover differential and relative lack of big plays. Unlike Romo, his teams don't lose many close games, but also unlike Romo, when they do, the loss is usually on him.

This adjusted rating that follows uses dropbacks instead of attempts, and includes all QB turnovers -- treating lost fumbles as INT.

Player...Dpbk/TD%/TO%/Sk%/YPD/Rtg
Romo ..... 230 / 4.8 / 5.2 / 3.5 / 7.6 / 76.7
Rodgers...151 / 2.0 / 1.3 /10.1/ 6.3 / 75.1
Roethbgr..152 / 3.9 / 3.3 /10.5/ 6.3 / 67.2
Brees ......150 / 3.3 / 4.7 / 5.3 / 6.5 / 63.2
Stafford....215 / 2.8 / 3.3 / 6.5 / 5.5 / 57.2
Ryan........204 / 0.5 / 4.4 / 3.9 / 5.8 / 52.5
PManning.. 96 / 3.2 / 7.3 / 2.1 / 6.3 / 56.2
Brady........170 / 2.9 / 4.1 / 4.7 / 5.4 / 54.0
EManning 123 / 4.9 / 7.3 / 5.7 / 6.4 / 50.3
Rivers...... 252 / 0.4 / 7.5 / 7.9 / 5.4 / 34.7

Even though sacks are listed and do count as attempts, again I did not subtract sack yardage, or else Rodgers would drop back closer to the pack. Anyway, you get the idea. The Dallas pass offense with Romo has clearly been the best in the league in the 4th quarter or OT of close losses.

How is it that the QB with the best numbers late in close losses has a reputation for...losing close games late? Most of it is that the team he plays on loses a lot of close games late -- games that would not be close in the first place if not for the Cowboys' passing game.
Defense - TD% Allowed in Late-and-Close Losses
Ind/Den 12% (26 drives, 3 TD)
Saints 12% (43 drives, 5 TD)
Falcons 16% (50 drives, 8 TD)
Chargers 18% (68 drives, 12 TD)
Steelers 20% (61 drives, 12 TD)
Patriots 24% (33 drives, 8 TD)
Packers 24% (51 drives, 12 TD)
Giants 27% (56 drives, 15 TD)
Lions 28% (72 drives, 20 TD)
Cowboys 30% (64 drives, 19 TD)

Having one of the league's worst defenses means two things: (1) you'll be involved in more close games than other teams (assuming your offense is good enough), and (2) if the game is close in the 4th quarter, you'll be more likely to lose it. None of these defenses has performed worse in late-and-close losses than the Cowboys' defense, and the running game hasn't been any better.

Offense - Rushing First Down Percentage in Late-and-Close Losses
Patriots 31% (55 rushes, 17 fd)
Ind/Den 29% (49 rushes, 14 fd)
Packers 28% (92 rushes, 26 fd)
Falcons 28% (58 rushes, 16 fd)
Chargers 22% (98 rushes, 22 fd)
Giants 22% (55 rushes, 12 fd)
Steelers 21% (71 rushes, 15 fd)
Saints 20% (55 rushes, 11 fd)
Lions 17% (110 rushes, 19 fd)
Cowboys 16% (67 rushes, 11 fd)

The most important run stat late in close games is first down percentage -- how well you move the chains. None of these teams' running games has performed worse in late-and-close losses than the Cowboys' running game. And even though yards per rush attempt is an almost meaningless stat, Dallas ranks 25th in that category late in close losses over the last four seasons, and 28th in lost fumbles.

You hardly ever hear this, but if it weren't for pass offense, this Cowboy team of the last four seasons (2010-13) would easily be the worst in the history of the franchise over a 4-year period. Look back, and you won't come close to finding a worse run offense, pass defense, and run defense over a 4-year stretch since 1960.

All these close-game numbers I've been giving are 4th quarter and OT only. In case you were wondering about Romo's performance in the first three quarters of these losses...

Quarters 1-3 of games lost by 8 points or less, 2010-13
Romo 93.5
Rodgers 91.9
Brady 91.8
Ryan 88.7
Rivers 84.4
Stafford 81.3
Brees 76.8
Roethbrgr 76.2
PManning 71.6
EManning 68.3

Just TD, INT, completions, and yards. This list provides some needed perspective about Brees and Roethlisberger in close losses. While they did play better than most in the 4th quarter, it wasn't enough to make up for their 76 rating in the rest of the game. More often than not, these QB (along with both Mannings) had dug the hole in which their team found itself.

And what about Brady in close losses, with a 91.8 rating through 3 quarters, and a 56.6 in the 4th despite having the best run support of all these QB? That's a collapse. Likewise, Rivers goes from a decent 84.4 through 3 quarters to a 44.7 in the 4th, despite a defense that held the opponent without a TD more often than any other. Ryan's story is similar.

The list also shows how this team has made a real habit of wasting Romo's best games. After all, he does not have the highest 1st-3rd quarter rating in all games--not even top five. Just in the close losses. And when this team loses with Romo, it's usually close. Of the 52 games in which Romo has seen significant action the last four seasons, 44 have either been wins or close losses.

This last one will blow your mind.

When QB Has Pass Rating Between 95-110
(W-L, 2010-13)
Brady 13-2 (.867)
Brees 12-2 (.857)
Roethbrgr 8-2 (.800)
Rodgers 9-3 (.750)
Ryan 10-4 (.714)
PManning 11-5 (.688)
EManning 8-5 (.615)
Stafford 9-8 (.529)
Rivers 6-7 (.462)
Romo 4-10 (.286)

Since 2010, when Romo has a 95-110 rating in a game, the Cowboys are 4-10 (.286).

When these other QB have a 95-110 rating in a game, their teams are 86-38 (.694). And that winning percentage is not what makes those quarterbacks special.

When any other QB in the league besides Romo has a 95-110 rating in a game, those teams are 243-120-2 (.669).

Pause and reflect. Response is optional.


dwmyers, perrykemp, and KJJ all (mostly unintentionally) provided ideas or info used in this post.

I got exhausted just scrolling through all that. I certainly didn't read any of it I'm just going to assume based on your posting history it's just more "regular season" stats along with a bunch of passer ratings that place Romo amongst the elite QB's of today and throughout history. I don't need to do forensics or post a lengthy page full of stats to expose why Romo carries the stigma he does. His career (regular season) passer rating is 95.8 which is 5th all-time and his playoff passer rating is only 80.8. During the regular season Romo averages around 278 yards a game compared to just over 208 yards during the playoffs. Since 2011 Romo has 8 int's in one possession games which leads all QB's.

 

[Nation]

I agree with some of this. Wilson comes up big in clutch situations.

I'm a fan of Russell Wilson, but the overall premise of the post makes no sense. It was a 36-31 game when Romo threw his first INT in that game, which was a bad throw no doubt about it. The Seahawks let up more than 31 points only once in 2013, and more than 24 only twice.

 

[Nation]

I got exhausted just scrolling through all that. I certainly didn't read any of it I'm just going to assume based on your posting history it's just more "regular season" stats that place Romo amongst the elite QB's of today and throughout history. I don't need to do forensics or post a lengthy page full of stats to expose why Romo carries the stigma he does. His career (regular season) passer rating is 95.8 which is 5th all-time and his playoff passer rating is only 80.8. During the regular season Romo averages around 278 yards a game compared to just over 208 yards during the playoffs. Since 2011 Romo has 8 int's in one possession games which leads all QB's.

He also has 19 touchdowns in that situation which leads all QBs as well. The point of all those stats that you were exhausted scrolling through was that you can't just pick one stat to fit one's narrative, especially when there are a dozen that show one's narrative is a load of crap.

 

[DogFace]

Romo has ranked among the league's top 10 rated passers seven consecutive seasons. Since the only QB with more consecutive top 10 seasons in the NFL-- Montana, Fouts, Young, Manning (whose streak continues), and Brady (whose ended last year) -- are all Hall of Famers, people think there must be something misleading about the stat, at least as it applies to Romo. Break down pass rating into its component parts, and you can see that there's nothing mysterious about it. It measures four elements on a per-attempt basis: TD, INT, completions, and yards.

Since 2010, no team has lost more close games than the Cowboys. In this analysis of why Dallas hasn't posted a winning record the last four seasons, those four elements are isolated (along with some others, including two stats involving the QB that aren't a part of pass rating -- sacks and lost fumbles) in the 4th quarter or overtime of the Cowboys' close losses.

in losses (2010 - 2013)
among NFL's top 10 rated passers with 1800+ attempts
4th qtr or OT, score + or - 8 points
(includes playoffs)

First, here they are ranked by pass rating. Again, that's just TD, INT, completions, and yards.
Player...Att/TD%/Int%/YPA/Rtg
Romo ..... 222 / 5.0 / 4.5 / 7.8 / 83.1
Rodgers...136 / 2.2 / 1.5 / 7.0 / 83.1
Roethbgr..136 / 4.4 / 2.9 / 7.0 / 77.9
Brees ......142 / 3.5 / 4.9 / 6.9 / 66.7
Stafford....201 / 3.0 / 3.0 / 5.9 / 63.2
Ryan........196 / 0.5 / 3.6 / 6.1 / 58.8
PManning.. 94 / 3.2 / 7.4 / 6.4 / 57.3
Brady........162 / 3.1 / 4.3 / 5.7 / 56.6
EManning. 116 / 5.2 / 7.8 / 6.8 / 53.2
Rivers...... 232 / 0.4 / 6.5 / 5.9 / 44.7

The first thing you may notice is that their number of pass attempts varies greatly. Some of these players were involved in more losses than others. Since these are all highly-rated QB, most of that difference is explained by the quality of the players around them, or by games missed due to injury.

Romo heads the list, hundredths of a rating point in front of Rodgers. This is traditional passer rating, so sacks and fumbles don't count. They're examples of what someone is talking about when they say "Stats don't tell the whole story." Of course, sacks and fumbles are also stats. They're recorded, they just aren't part of pass rating. So let's count them. Instead of pass attempts, I'll look at total dropbacks. Instead of INT, I'll look at all QB turnovers.

This will be our starting point. Touchdowns vs. turnovers, as a perecentage of all dropbacks. To see the effect of sacks and fumbles, compare Romo's 5.0 TD% above (pass attempts only) to his 4.8 below (pass attempts + sacks), for example. Also compare his 4.5 INT% above to his 5.2 turnover % below. Then, most importantly, look at the differential.

Touchdown Percentage
(the percentage of all dropbacks resulting in TD)
EManning 4.9
Romo 4.8
Roethbrgr 3.9
Brees 3.3
PManning 3.2
Brady 2.9
Stafford 2.8
Rodgers 2.0
Ryan 0.5
Rivers 0.4

Turnover Percentage
(the percentage of all dropbacks resulting in an INT or lost fumble)
Rodgers 1.3
Roethbrgr 3.3
Stafford 3.3
Brady 4.1
Ryan 4.4
Brees 4.7
Romo 5.2
PManning 7.3
EManning 7.3
Rivers 7.5

Differential
Roethbrgr +14.1
Romo +12.8
Rodgers +8.8
Stafford +6.4
EManning +5.1
Brees +4.3
Brady +3.9
PManning -6.8
Ryan -14.1
Rivers -27.2

If I wanted to mislead, I could mention just one of these two categories--either TD or turnovers. You absolutely must look at both of them together. Even better, see the differential.

Although we've all seen the statistic "TD/INT Ratio," TD and turnovers are not equal values, because not all turnovers either cost the offense a touchdown, or result in a touchdown for the opponent. Turnovers have been found to be worth 4 points, while TD are obviously worth 7. Accordingly, I multiply Eli's TD% by 7 and his turnover% by 4, then subtract to get his +5.1 differential.

High touchdown and turnover totals are the sign of a QB who takes more risks (see Eli) in late-and-close situations. Likewise, a QB with fewer turnovers (Rodgers) often has fewer TD as well because he is playing it safe in these situations. (As some have suggested, maybe too safe, when you look at his sack totals in the losses.) Rodgers has avoided late turnovers in close losses, but they're still losses, and the Packers' poor W-L record when trailing late is partly due to his risk aversion (and partly due to his defense, as you'll see later.)

Late in close losses, Romo's TD/TO differential is 2nd best among these top quarterbacks. What this means is that when their team lost a close game, Big Ben and Romo have played relatively well in the 4th quarter with regard to touchdowns and turnovers -- not the only parts of the game, but two big ones.

The next two categories are yards per dropback and sacks, two statistics which you don't see in a passer rating. Since sacks are very often not the fault of the QB, I did not subtract sack yardage from the QB's yardage total, I just counted the sack as a 0-yard completion.

Yards Per Dropback (sacks are counted as pass attempts)
Romo 7.6
Brees 6.5
EManning 6.4
PManning 6.3
Rodgers 6.3
Roethbrgr 6.3
Ryan 5.8
Stafford 5.5
Rivers 5.4
Brady 5.4

Sack Percentage
(the percentage of all dropbacks resulting in a sack)
PManning 2.1
Romo 3.5
Brady 4.7
Brees 5.3
EManning 5.7
Stafford 6.5
Ryan 7.1
Rivers 7.9
Rodgers 10.1
Roethbrgr 10.5

Again, you want your QB to rank in the top half of both of those lists. It's easier to keep your sacks down with short passes and throwaways, but since those count as attempts, your YPA will suffer (see Brady). Romo ranks in the top two of both lists, and is really in a class by himself in the first one. We're still talking late in close losses.

Note that two of the best QB in the TD/TO differential (Roethlisberger and Rodgers) are the bottom two in sacks. Rodgers took only half as many sacks late in close wins (5.3) as in close losses (10.1) the last four seasons. Big Ben's sack percentage was actually higher in their wins. Romo's was about the same in the wins (4.1) as losses (3.5).

If sacks and all turnovers were a part of passer rating, the net effect on Romo's would be positive. And that's late in close losses. Also, if you haven't been keeping track, Romo and Brees are the only players who rank in the top 7 of all the lists we've seen so far.

Plays of 30+ yards as a percentage of total dropbacks
EManning 5.7% (7 of 123)
Romo 4.8% (11 of 230)
Stafford 2.8% (6 of 215)
Rodgers 2.0% (3 of 151)
Ryan 2.0% (4 of 204)
Roethbrgr 1.3% (2 of 152)
Brees 1.3% (2 of 150)
Brady 1.2% (2 of 170)
PManning 1.0% (1 of 96)
Rivers 0.8% (2 of 252)

First Down Percentage
PManning 40.6% (8.36 to go)
Romo 33.5% (9.33 to go)
Brady 33.5% (9.08 to go)
Rodgers 31.8% (8.79 to go)
Roethbrgr 30.3% (9.45 to go)
Brees 30.7% (9.59 to go)
Rivers 29.8% (9.17 to go)
Ryan 27.5% (8.71 to go)
Stafford 25.1% (9.60 to go)
EManning 24.4% (9.28 to go)

Both lists are about yards, whether in large or small chunks. Yards in the 4th quarter or OT of close games that these QB's teams ultimately lost.

The first list explains itself. The second list is about possession -- it's the percentage of pass plays that result in a first down (with the average yards to go on those plays). Again we see the feast-or-famine that is Eli. A ton of big plays, not many first downs. Proving that yes you can have both, only Romo ranks among the top 3 in both lists, which is to be expected from a QB whose yards per play is on another planet.

Peyton's first down percentage dominates, but moving the chains is not his problem in close losses--it's his poor TD/turnover differential and relative lack of big plays. Unlike Romo, his teams don't lose many close games, but also unlike Romo, when they do, the loss is usually on him.

This adjusted rating that follows uses dropbacks instead of attempts, and includes all QB turnovers -- treating lost fumbles as INT.

Player...Dpbk/TD%/TO%/Sk%/YPD/Rtg
Romo ..... 230 / 4.8 / 5.2 / 3.5 / 7.6 / 76.7
Rodgers...151 / 2.0 / 1.3 /10.1/ 6.3 / 75.1
Roethbgr..152 / 3.9 / 3.3 /10.5/ 6.3 / 67.2
Brees ......150 / 3.3 / 4.7 / 5.3 / 6.5 / 63.2
Stafford....215 / 2.8 / 3.3 / 6.5 / 5.5 / 57.2
Ryan........204 / 0.5 / 4.4 / 3.9 / 5.8 / 52.5
PManning.. 96 / 3.2 / 7.3 / 2.1 / 6.3 / 56.2
Brady........170 / 2.9 / 4.1 / 4.7 / 5.4 / 54.0
EManning 123 / 4.9 / 7.3 / 5.7 / 6.4 / 50.3
Rivers...... 252 / 0.4 / 7.5 / 7.9 / 5.4 / 34.7

Even though sacks are listed and do count as attempts, again I did not subtract sack yardage, or else Rodgers would drop back closer to the pack. Anyway, you get the idea. The Dallas pass offense with Romo has clearly been the best in the league in the 4th quarter or OT of close losses.

How is it that the QB with the best numbers late in close losses has a reputation for...losing close games late? Most of it is that the team he plays on loses a lot of close games late -- games that would not be close in the first place if not for the Cowboys' passing game.
Defense - TD% Allowed in Late-and-Close Losses
Ind/Den 12% (26 drives, 3 TD)
Saints 12% (43 drives, 5 TD)
Falcons 16% (50 drives, 8 TD)
Chargers 18% (68 drives, 12 TD)
Steelers 20% (61 drives, 12 TD)
Patriots 24% (33 drives, 8 TD)
Packers 24% (51 drives, 12 TD)
Giants 27% (56 drives, 15 TD)
Lions 28% (72 drives, 20 TD)
Cowboys 30% (64 drives, 19 TD)

Having one of the league's worst defenses means two things: (1) you'll be involved in more close games than other teams (assuming your offense is good enough), and (2) if the game is close in the 4th quarter, you'll be more likely to lose it. None of these defenses has performed worse in late-and-close losses than the Cowboys' defense, and the running game hasn't been any better.

Offense - Rushing First Down Percentage in Late-and-Close Losses
Patriots 31% (55 rushes, 17 fd)
Ind/Den 29% (49 rushes, 14 fd)
Packers 28% (92 rushes, 26 fd)
Falcons 28% (58 rushes, 16 fd)
Chargers 22% (98 rushes, 22 fd)
Giants 22% (55 rushes, 12 fd)
Steelers 21% (71 rushes, 15 fd)
Saints 20% (55 rushes, 11 fd)
Lions 17% (110 rushes, 19 fd)
Cowboys 16% (67 rushes, 11 fd)

The most important run stat late in close games is first down percentage -- how well you move the chains. None of these teams' running games has performed worse in late-and-close losses than the Cowboys' running game. And even though yards per rush attempt is an almost meaningless stat, Dallas ranks 25th in that category late in close losses over the last four seasons, and 28th in lost fumbles.

You hardly ever hear this, but if it weren't for pass offense, this Cowboy team of the last four seasons (2010-13) would easily be the worst in the history of the franchise over a 4-year period. Look back, and you won't come close to finding a worse run offense, pass defense, and run defense over a 4-year stretch since 1960.

All these close-game numbers I've been giving are 4th quarter and OT only. In case you were wondering about Romo's performance in the first three quarters of these losses...

Quarters 1-3 of games lost by 8 points or less, 2010-13
Romo 93.5
Rodgers 91.9
Brady 91.8
Ryan 88.7
Rivers 84.4
Stafford 81.3
Brees 76.8
Roethbrgr 76.2
PManning 71.6
EManning 68.3

Just TD, INT, completions, and yards. This list provides some needed perspective about Brees and Roethlisberger in close losses. While they did play better than most in the 4th quarter, it wasn't enough to make up for their 76 rating in the rest of the game. More often than not, these QB (along with both Mannings) had dug the hole in which their team found itself.

And what about Brady in close losses, with a 91.8 rating through 3 quarters, and a 56.6 in the 4th despite having the best run support of all these QB? That's a collapse. Likewise, Rivers goes from a decent 84.4 through 3 quarters to a 44.7 in the 4th, despite a defense that held the opponent without a TD more often than any other. Ryan's story is similar.

The list also shows how this team has made a real habit of wasting Romo's best games. After all, he does not have the highest 1st-3rd quarter rating in all games--not even top five. Just in the close losses. And when this team loses with Romo, it's usually close. Of the 52 games in which Romo has seen significant action the last four seasons, 44 have either been wins or close losses.

This last one will blow your mind.

When QB Has Pass Rating Between 95-110
(W-L, 2010-13)
Brady 13-2 (.867)
Brees 12-2 (.857)
Roethbrgr 8-2 (.800)
Rodgers 9-3 (.750)
Ryan 10-4 (.714)
PManning 11-5 (.688)
EManning 8-5 (.615)
Stafford 9-8 (.529)
Rivers 6-7 (.462)
Romo 4-10 (.286)

Since 2010, when Romo has a 95-110 rating in a game, the Cowboys are 4-10 (.286).

When these other QB have a 95-110 rating in a game, their teams are 86-38 (.694). And that winning percentage is not what makes those quarterbacks special.

When any other QB in the league besides Romo has a 95-110 rating in a game, those teams are 243-120-2 (.669).

Pause and reflect. Response is optional.


dwmyers, perrykemp, and KJJ all (mostly unintentionally) provided ideas or info used in this post.

Still not sold.
Please provide some data to support your position.

 

[boyzjunkie]

On our team Tony's role is that of a passer.

On Seattle's team Wilson's role is that of a quarterback.

 

[Clove]

No way to prove it, you very well could be right. Wilson is just not asked to throw that much. Their team centers around the run with Lynch and the defensive play. Not a knock on Wilson he is a very good young QB who plays very well within the system they have in place. What could he do if asked to carry more of the load? hard to say.

At least Wilson can be trusted to throw the ball. He doesn't throw much, but he manages to put the ball in the end zone and get first downs and keeps the ball moving. At least that's what I saw in the Super Bowl. Romo doesn't have the girth, the guts, the heart, the stomach to even get close to that type of game. Sure, he wipes the floor with the trash of the league, and maybe he can win against a great team in October, but when it gets down to the big grown man show, he's a boy amongst men.

 

[Section446]

At least Wilson can be trusted to throw the ball. He doesn't throw much, but he manages to put the ball in the end zone and get first downs and keeps the ball moving. At least that's what I saw in the Super Bowl. Romo doesn't have the girth, the guts, the heart, the stomach to even get close to that type of game. Sure, he wipes the floor with the trash of the league, and maybe he can win against a great team in October, but when it gets down to the big grown man show, he's a boy amongst men.

Which is why Wilson has a ring, and Romo will never sniff one. Romo can't be trusted to come through in the clutch. He doesn't throw two stupid INT's against Denver and Green Bay, we're probably a playoff team.

 

[Hoov]

I think the cowboys offense was ranked 2nd to worst in the NFL in converting 3rd downs.

Most of those failed 3rd downs im guessing were pass plays. That has to reflect on the QB in some way. So how can Romo have such good passing rating when his offense was 2nd worst in converting 3rd downs ?

I dont have an answer for this but we could speculate on possible theories.

Looking into this may also give an understanding as to why there are such widely varied oppinions on the quality of his play.

For Romo to have such good stats and passer rating but be poor at converting 3rd downs logic would dictate he is completing a lot of passes on first and second down.

If that is true then why is he better at passing on those downs ? I dont have an answer for that.


As a fan I have watched games and by the end of the game I have felt very frustrated with the cowboys offense that often seems to get going in spurts with big plays but sputters out before getting into the red zone by failing to convert a key 3rd down.

Then when i see the stat lines the next day I think - Oh, those are decent numbers. Romo had a good performace when looking at overall numbers..... but the team just didnt get it done.

And the defense was bad last year, but the offense had so many drives that stalled out with a 3 and out just before they could get close to scoring. So i cant say the offense played great last year. They play in spurts, they have some great playmakers and they make a lot of big plays that wow you but then they go 3 and out on the same drive. They aren't able to maintain drives for some reason.

This is exactly what will lead to big stat numbers for individual players but no wins.

For example... witten could have a 12 catch 100 yard game and catch 2 passes on 6 seperate drives but every one of those drives could end in a punt.... so zero points for all that production from your all pro TE. And the same could be said for Romo and the other skill players. They all make plays and end up with decent stats but they waste so many opportunities.

This has been the picture of the cowboys offense for several years. They get moving with some great plays, then there is a sack or a dropped pass or someone holds and they cant overcome the loss of those 10 yards ending up in 3rd and long that they dont convert = punt.

They look like a group of talented skill players that cant play together on the same page.

 

[Doomsday101]

At least Wilson can be trusted to throw the ball. He doesn't throw much, but he manages to put the ball in the end zone and get first downs and keeps the ball moving. At least that's what I saw in the Super Bowl. Romo doesn't have the girth, the guts, the heart, the stomach to even get close to that type of game. Sure, he wipes the floor with the trash of the league, and maybe he can win against a great team in October, but when it gets down to the big grown man show, he's a boy amongst men.

Yes he does not have to throw it much team focus on the seahawks running attack they come up to the line to stop Lynch so yes when Wilson bootlegs or playactions off of Lynch he is finding some favorable coverages. As for close games games within 7 points in the 4th qrt Wilson threw 5 int vs 4 TD passes. but again you have a top notch defense who can bail you out that is a pretty big thing to have. I like Wilson but what the Seahawks ask of him and what the Cowboys are asking from Romo is very different. Again you compare 2 guys in totally different situations. HOw big of a factors is it when you defense in post season give up 15 points, 17 points and 8 points in the fricken SB? You guys are fricken laugable you really have no clue as you compare Wilson situation in Seattle vs Romo situation in Dallas. Get a clue

 

[percyhoward]

They've had the worst pass defense in the league since 2010. No team from 2010-2013 has had more than two seasons where they ranked in the bottom ten in defensive passer rating. The Cowboys ranked in the bottom ten in all four seasons.

20th or worse SIX different times during the Romo era, and only four times in franchise history before that.

 

[DuDa]

All these stats are awesome, thank you. However, this does not change anything because we all , Romo haters and lovers alike, know that the following statements are true:

1. Romo is really friggin good
2. Romo sometimes makes stupid decisions late in games
3. The defense blows
4. Our running game seems to disappear from JG's mind when it's needed
5. The team, as a whole, does not close out games very well

We all know these things yet we continue to argue if Romo has what it takes. There is no easy answer because there isn't one. Lets stop trying to define Romo as elite or mediocre or capable of winning a SB because he is what he is, a very good yet flawed QB on an unstable team.

 

[KJJ]

He also has 19 touchdowns in that situation which leads all QBs as well. The point of all those stats that you were exhausted scrolling through was that you can't just pick one stat to fit one's narrative, especially when there are a dozen that show one's narrative is a load of crap.

The point of all those stats are simply to continue glorifying Romo during the "regular season" compared to the elite QB's of today and from years ago. All these "regular season" stats percy continues to post that places Romo amongst the elite QB's during the "regular season" doesn't change the fact that he's not the same QB in elimination/playoff games. It's the contrast between his regular season numbers and his elimination/playoff game numbers that have helped create the stigma he has.

It's been a tale of two Romo's in the regular season and postseason. Not once can I recall percy ever comparing Romo's regular season numbers/wins with his elimination/playoff game numbers/wins because it doesn't fit with his agenda. It's not about stats it's about winning which is why Troy Aikman was considered the best QB of the 90's despite several QB's having better career numbers.

 

[LatinMind]

I hate the term driving the bus because even the so called bush driver will have to make the big plays and Wilson did that, he plays within the system and makes few mistakes. Frankly Aikman was never asked to throw as much as guys like Young, Jim Kelly or a host of ther top QB, thankfully Troy was more interested in helping his team win championships and not his own stats.

yeah system QB describes guys accurately.

 

[LatinMind]

All these stats are awesome, thank you. However, this does not change anything because we all , Romo haters and lovers alike, know that the following statements are true:

1. Romo is really friggin good
2. Romo sometimes makes stupid decisions late in games
3. The defense blows
4. Our running game seems to disappear from JG's mind when it's needed
5. The team, as a whole, does not close out games very well

We all know these things yet we continue to argue if Romo has what it takes. There is no easy answer because there isn't one. Lets stop trying to define Romo as elite or mediocre or capable of winning a SB because he is what he is, a very good yet flawed QB on an unstable team.

All of that is true. But the thing that alot of people ignore or dont even mention is in 2007 Dallas was ranked 3 on offense and 9 on defense. And when it mattered Romo laid a egg. Giants had 253 total yrds on offense in the game. Scored 21 points. Dallas had 154 yrds rushing. Romo had 201 yrds passing and 1 td and 1 int.

Romo is a good QB nobody can dispute that. But he just seems like a QB who cant win a big game. People point to 2012-2013 as the bases for Romos career, ignoring the fact that Romo has had complete teams in his career.

 

[gmoney112]

Awesome job, Percy.

It's threads like these that really cast a spotlight on the clueless posters in the Zone. It's amusing thatin the face of clear and convincing evidence that Romo is the least of our problems, some will still manage to blame him for our losses.

Head in the sand.

 

[Nation]

The point of all those stats are simply to continue glorifying Romo during the "regular season" compared to the elite QB's of today and from years ago. All these "regular season" stats percy continues to post that places Romo amongst the elite QB's during the "regular season" doesn't change the fact that he's not the same QB in elimination/playoff games. It's the contrast between his regular season numbers and his elimination/playoff game numbers that have helped create the stigma he has.

It's been a tale of two Romo's in the regular season and postseason. Not once can I recall percy ever comparing Romo's regular season numbers/wins with his elimination/playoff game numbers/wins because it doesn't fit with his agenda. It's not about stats it's about winning which is why Troy Aikman was considered the best QB of the 90's despite several QB's having better career numbers.

Where are elimination/playoff game statistics readily available for a comparison?

 

[Doomsday101]

yeah system QB describes guys accurately.

The system works. I do like Wilson he is a quality player he does not try to do more than need be and he makes plays when he has to. With the defense in Seattle the offense is not under constant pressure to score so you tend to take less risk.