Here are QB’s taken in the first three rounds each of the past 5 years along with their draft position
it’s tough to find an elite QB
2015
Winston - 1
Mariota - 2
Grayson - 75
Mannion - 85
2016
Goff - 1
Wentz - 2
Lynch - 26
Hackenberg - 51
Brissett - 91
Kessler - 93
2017
Trubisky - 2
Mahomes - 10
Watson - 12
Kizer - 52
Webb - 87
Beatherd - 104
2018
Mayfield - 1
Darnold - 3
Allen - 7
Rosen - 10
Jackson - 32
Rudolph - 76
2019
Murray - 1
Jones - 6
Haskins - 15
Lock - 42
Grier - 100
Put half of those QB’s in Dak’s shoes and I bet you they’d do about the same as Dak (give or take a few wins and stats). (Jones, Haskins, Rosen, Mayfield, Kessler, Brissett, Mariota, Winston, Rudolph, Trubisky, Kizer.)
Around 1/4 of them would probably be worse (Grier, Webb, Beatherd, Hackenburg, Lynch, Grayson, Mannion).
Around 1/4 would be better (Murray, Lock, Jackson, Allen, Darnold, Watson, Mahomes, Goff, Wentz, Mariota.