Mel Kiper on Anthony Spencer

[Doomsday101]

I know that it makes sense to you, but it doesn't work that way...

2006 34 Sacks Passing Defense 24th 219.0 YPG
2005 37 Sacks Passing Defense 11th 192.7 YPG
2004 33 Sacks Passing Defense 21st 220.1 YPG
2003 32 Sacks Passing Defense 1st 164.4 YPG
2002 24 Sacks Passing Defense 19th 215.6 YPG


As you can clearly see, sacks do not make a Pass Defense great.

Our 2003 team was ranked 1st, but only had 32 sacks.


The Cowboys needed to draft a quality, blue chip corner.

I guess we will see. I have no issue with our secondary and know they were asked to cover WR longer than they should have. You give an NFL QB 5 sec in the pocket with no pressure in his face and he will beat any CB in the NFL. You can whine all day about the secondary but unless we get more pressure on the QB it will not matter who is back there.

 

[Chocolate Lab]

I know that it makes sense to you, but it doesn't work that way...

2006 34 Sacks Passing Defense 24th 219.0 YPG
2005 37 Sacks Passing Defense 11th 192.7 YPG
2004 33 Sacks Passing Defense 21st 220.1 YPG
2003 32 Sacks Passing Defense 1st 164.4 YPG
2002 24 Sacks Passing Defense 19th 215.6 YPG


As you can clearly see, sacks do not make a Pass Defense great.

Our 2003 team was ranked 1st, but only had 32 sacks.


The Cowboys needed to draft a quality, blue chip corner.

Like the one we had in 2003, Mario Edwards?

Seriously, I have some doubts about Henry, too, but you kind of argued against your own point here. Edwards is nothing special, obviously. The difference in 2003 was that we blitzed like crazy instead of sitting back in predictable zones and letting QBs comfortably complete passes on us.

 

[theogt]

I know that it makes sense to you, but it doesn't work that way...

2006 34 Sacks Passing Defense 24th 219.0 YPG
2005 37 Sacks Passing Defense 11th 192.7 YPG
2004 33 Sacks Passing Defense 21st 220.1 YPG
2003 32 Sacks Passing Defense 1st 164.4 YPG
2002 24 Sacks Passing Defense 19th 215.6 YPG


As you can clearly see, sacks do not make a Pass Defense great.

Our 2003 team was ranked 1st, but only had 32 sacks.


The Cowboys needed to draft a quality, blue chip corner.

Did you really just try to compare stats across seasons like this? Honestly, I thought even you were smarter than this.

I ran some numbers. In 2006 for all teams, the correlation coefficient between Sacks Per Attempt and Yards Per Attempt was 0.52. That's pretty darn close.

I applaud you for actually attempting to prove your point this time, though, despite being wrong.

 

[eduncan22]

Did you really just try to compare stats across seasons like this? Honestly, I thought even you were smarter than this.

I ran some numbers. In 2006 for all teams, the correlation coefficient between Sacks Per Attempt and Yards Per Attempt was 0.52. That's pretty darn close.

I applaud you for actually attempting to prove your point this time, though, despite being wrong.

Our 2002 team had a better pass defense.

They only had 24 sacks.

 

[theogt]

Our 2002 team had a better pass defense.

They only had 24 sacks.

Your point? Is it that more sacks don't correlate with better pass defense?

 

[theogt]

Our 2002 team had a better pass defense.

They only had 24 sacks.

By the way, Total Sacks and Yards Per Game have a correlation of 0.246, so you're going to find some off numbers there. Obviously there are a number of factors that go into Yards Per Game that make it a poor indicator of defensive success. If a team has a good offense that scores a lot, their defense is going to be passed on more often, which will presumably give them a high YPG. You have to look at YPA as compared to Sacks Per Attempt.

But again, I applaud you for at least attempting to bring substance to the conversation.

 

[Zimmy Lives]

The Cowboys needed to draft a quality, blue chip corner.

They probably would have drafted a blue chip corner if one existed in the 2007 draft and was available at #22. Hall and Revis were considered the two best corners available and neither could compare to Champ Bailey, or even T-New.

There was better value on the board and the Cowboys feel they got it in Spencer.

 

[Da Hammer]

Cant wait to finally see us play a REAL 3-4 not that piece of garbage D that fatty had last year. Ware will finish with around 14 sacks and Spencer will win ROY!!!

 

[zrinkill]

Our 2002 team had a better pass defense.

Which of these corners was better than Henry or Newman?

Mario Edwards
Dwayne Goodrich
Pete Hunter
Derek Ross
Bryant Westbrook

None of them are even as good as an old Glenn.

Which one? I don't expect you to answer.

 

[BLT]

Which of these corners was better than Henry or Newman?
Mario Edwards
Dwayne Goodrich
Pete Hunter
Derek Ross
Bryant Westbrook

None of them are even as good as an old Glenn.

Which one? I don't expect you to answer.

welll duh derek ross of course... guy had 5 picks his rookie year... future STAR!!!

 

[zrinkill]

welll duh derek ross of course... guy had 5 picks his rookie year... future STAR!!!

he can always look back at that one year while he is dropping the soap in a Texas prison.

 

[kmd24]

I ran some numbers. In 2006 for all teams, the correlation coefficient between Sacks Per Attempt and Yards Per Attempt was 0.52. That's pretty darn close.

Sack yardage is subtracted from passing yardage so it ought to be strongly negatively correlated with yards per attempt.

If you add the sack yardage back, you would get a better estimation of the effect a strong pass rush has on passing plays that don't result in sacks, which is really what you are driving at.

 

[Wolfpack]

I always thought he was a machine.

Going to the draft 4 straight years I never saw the guy eat or drink...

During commercial breaks the guy would put his head down like he went into power save mode.

Actually, they are probably packing him back up into the closet as we speak.

you made me almost pee myself.

 

[DallasEast]

I know that it makes sense to you, but it doesn't work that way...

2006 34 Sacks Passing Defense 24th 219.0 YPG
2005 37 Sacks Passing Defense 11th 192.7 YPG
2004 33 Sacks Passing Defense 21st 220.1 YPG
2003 32 Sacks Passing Defense 1st 164.4 YPG
2002 24 Sacks Passing Defense 19th 215.6 YPG


As you can clearly see, sacks do not make a Pass Defense great.

Our 2003 team was ranked 1st, but only had 32 sacks.


The Cowboys needed to draft a quality, blue chip corner.

This is your argument, with additional info (and interception numbers which you'll probably skewer) you neglected to include. Namely, the same data of playoff teams (e.g. the best teams of that particular season) from 2002 through 2006:


2002: Tampa Bay, 43 Sacks [NFL rank: 6 (tie)], 155.6 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 1st], 31 Interceptions [NFL rank: 1st]
2002: Indianapolis, 36 Sacks [NFL rank: 16 (tie)], 182.3 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 2nd], 10 Interceptions [NFL rank: 26th (tie)]
2002: Green Bay, 43 Sacks [NFL rank: 6 (tie)], 186.7 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 3rd], 24 Interceptions [NFL rank: 3rd (tie)]
2002: Philadelphia, 56 Sacks [NFL rank: 1], 193.4 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 7th], 15 Interceptions [NFL rank: 20th (tie)]
2002: New York (N), 37 Sacks [NFL rank: 15], 194.9 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 9th], 11 Interceptions [NFL rank: 25th]
2002: Cleveland, 28 Sacks [NFL rank: 27 (tie)], 204.3 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 15th], 17 Interceptions [NFL rank: 15th (tie)]
2002: Atlanta, 47 Sacks [NFL rank: 4 (tie)], 205.4 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 16th], 24 Interceptions [NFL rank: 3rd (tie)]
2002: Dallas, 24 Sacks [NFL rank: 30 (tie)], 215.6 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 19th], 19 Interceptions [NFL rank: 8th (tie)]
2002: Pittsburgh, 50 Sacks [NFL rank: 3], 216.2 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 20th], 19 Interceptions [NFL rank: 8th (tie)]
2002: New York (A), 30 Sacks [NFL rank: 26], 218.1 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 21st], 15 Interceptions [NFL rank: 20th (tie)]
2002: San Francisco, 32 Sacks [NFL rank: 24], 219.1 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 22nd], 19 Interceptions [NFL rank: 8th (tie)]
2002: Oakland, 43 Sacks [NFL rank: 6 (tie)], 220.4 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 23rd], 21 Interceptions [NFL rank: 5th (tie)]
2002: Tennessee, 40 Sacks [NFL rank: 9 (tie)], 221.2 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 25th], 18 Interceptions [NFL rank: 12th (tie)]


2003: Dallas, 32 Sacks [NFL rank: 21 (tie)], 164.4 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 1st], 13 Interceptions [NFL rank: 25th (tie)]
2003: Baltimore, 47 Sacks [NFL rank: 1], 175.3 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 4th], 24 Interceptions [NFL rank: 4th (tie)]
2003: Indianapolis, 31 Sacks [NFL rank: 23], 175.6 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 5th], 15 Interceptions [NFL rank: 14th (tie)]
2003: Denver, 36 Sacks [NFL rank: 13 (tie)], 176.8 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 6th], 9 Interceptions [NFL rank: 32nd]
2003: Carolina, 40 Sacks [NFL rank: 7 (tie)], 187.7 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 9th], 16 Interceptions [NFL rank: 12th (tie)]
2003: St. Louis, 42 Sacks [NFL rank: 4 (tie)], 192 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 12th], 24 Interceptions [NFL rank: 4th (tie)]
2003: New England, 41 Sacks [NFL rank: 6], 202 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 15th], 29 Interceptions [NFL rank: 1st]
2003: Philadelphia, 38 Sacks [NFL rank: 9 (tie)], 202.2 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 16th], 13 Interceptions [NFL rank: 25th (tie)]
2003: Kansas City, 36 Sacks [NFL rank: 13 (tie)], 210.2 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 20th], 25 Interceptions [NFL rank: 3rd]
2003: Green Bay, 34 Sacks [NFL rank: 20], 212.5 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 23rd], 21 Interceptions [NFL rank: 8th (tie)]
2003: Seattle, 40 Sacks [NFL rank: 7 (tie)], 217.5 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 27th], 16 Interceptions [NFL rank: 12th (tie)]
2003: Tennessee, 38 Sacks [NFL rank: 9 (tie)], 225.4 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 30th], 21 Interceptions [NFL rank: 8th (tie)]


2004: Pittsburgh, 41 Sacks [NFL rank: 7 (tie)], 177.2 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 4th], 19 Interceptions [NFL rank: 9th (tie)]
2004: Denver, 38 Sacks [NFL rank: 14 (tie)], 184.2 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 6th], 12 Interceptions [NFL rank: 27th]
2004: New York (N), 40 Sacks [NFL rank: 9 (tie)], 189.4 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 8th], 14 Interceptions [NFL rank: 22nd (tie)]
2004: St. Louis, 34 Sacks [NFL rank: 24 (tie)], 198.4 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 11th], 6 Interceptions [NFL rank: 32nd]
2004: Philadelphia, 47 Sacks [NFL rank: 2], 200.8 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 12th], 17 Interceptions [NFL rank: 15th (tie)]
2004: New England, 45 Sacks [NFL rank: 3 (tie)], 212.5 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 17th], 20 Interceptions [NFL rank: 7th (tie)]
2004: Dallas, 33 Sacks [NFL rank: 26], 220.1 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 21st], 13 Interceptions [NFL rank: 24th (tie)]
2004: Atlanta, 48 Sacks [NFL rank: 1], 220.4 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 22nd], 19 Interceptions [NFL rank: 9th (tie)]
2004: Seattle, 36 Sacks [NFL rank: 21 (tie)], 224.4 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 23rd], 23 Interceptions [NFL rank: 3rd (tie)]
2004: Green Bay, 40 Sacks [NFL rank: 9 (tie)], 228.9 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 25th], 8 Interceptions [NFL rank: 31st]
2004: Indianapolis, 45 Sacks [NFL rank: 3 (tie)], 243.2 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 28th], 19 Interceptions [NFL rank: 9th (tie)]
2004: Minnesota, 39 Sacks [NFL rank: 12 (tie)], 243.5 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 29th], 11 Interceptions [NFL rank: 28th]
2004: San Diego, 29 Sacks [NFL rank: 29 (tie)], 253.3 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 31st], 23 Interceptions [NFL rank: 3rd (tie)]


2005: Chicago, 41 Sacks [NFL rank: 8 (tie)], 179.5 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 5th], 24 Interceptions [NFL rank: 2nd (tie)]
2005: Tampa Bay, 36 Sacks [NFL rank: 18 (tie)], 183.1 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 6th], 17 Interceptions [NFL rank: 10th (tie)]
2005: Jacksonville, 47 Sacks [NFL rank: 3 (tie)], 184.1 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 7th], 19 Interceptions [NFL rank: 7th (tie)]
2005: Carolina, 45 Sacks [NFL rank: 7], 191.1 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 9th], 23 Interceptions [NFL rank: 4th]
2005: Washington, 35 Sacks [NFL rank: 20 (tie)], 192.6 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 10th], 16 Interceptions [NFL rank: 14th (tie)]
2005: Dallas, 37 Sacks [NFL rank: 14 (tie)], 192.7 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 11th], 15 Interceptions [NFL rank: 19th (tie)]
2005: Indianapolis, 46 Sacks [NFL rank: 5 (tie)], 196.9 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 15th], 18 Interceptions [NFL rank: 9th]
2005: Pittsburgh, 47 Sacks [NFL rank: 3 (tie)], 198 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 16th], 15 Interceptions [NFL rank: 19th (tie)]
2005: Seattle, 50 Sacks [NFL rank: 1], 222.4 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 25th], 16 Interceptions [NFL rank: 14th (tie)]
2005: Cincinnati, 28 Sacks [NFL rank: 28 (tie)], 223.1 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 26th], 31 Interceptions [NFL rank: 1st]
2005: New York (N), 41 Sacks [NFL rank: 8 (tie)], 224 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 27th], 17 Interceptions [NFL rank: 10th (tie)]
2005: Denver, 28 Sacks [NFL rank: 28 (tie)], 227.7 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 29th], 20 Interceptions [NFL rank: 6th]
2005: New England, 33 Sacks [NFL rank: 23], 231.4 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 31st], 10 Interceptions [NFL rank: 26th (tie)]


2006: Indianapolis, 25 Sacks [NFL rank: 30 (tie)], 159.2 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 2nd], 15 Interceptions [NFL rank: 20th (tie)]
2006: New Orleans, 38 Sacks [NFL rank: 12 (tie)], 178.4 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 3rd], 11 Interceptions [NFL rank: 28th (tie)]
2006: Baltimore, 60 Sacks [NFL rank: 2], 188.2 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 6th], 28 Interceptions [NFL rank: 1st]
2006: Philadelphia, 40 Sacks [NFL rank: 8 (tie)], 191.7 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 9th], 19 Interceptions [NFL rank: 8th (tie)]
2006: Chicago, 40 Sacks [NFL rank: 8 (tie)], 194.8 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 11th], 24 Interceptions [NFL rank: 2nd]
2006: New England, 44 Sacks [NFL rank: 5], 200.2 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 12th], 22 Interceptions [NFL rank: 4th]
2006: San Diego, 61 Sacks [NFL rank: 1], 200.8 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 13th], 16 Interceptions [NFL rank: 17th (tie)]
2006: New York (A), 35 Sacks [NFL rank: 15 (tie)], 201.4 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 14th], 16 Interceptions [NFL rank: 17th (tie)]
2006: Seattle, 41 Sacks [NFL rank: 6 (tie)], 203.5 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 16th], 12 Interceptions [NFL rank: 25th (tie)]
2006: Kansas City, 32 Sacks [NFL rank: 23 (tie)], 208.4 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 18th], 15 Interceptions [NFL rank: 20th (tie)]
2006: Dallas, 34 Sacks [NFL rank: 19 (tie)], 219.1 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 24th], 18 Interceptions [NFL rank: 10th (tie)]
2006: New York (N), 32 Sacks [NFL rank: 23 (tie)], 228.1 YPG Passing Defense [NFL rank: 28th], 17 Interceptions [NFL rank: 13th (tie)]



Try not to hide behind the '06 Colts and Eisen, ya hear?

 

[theogt]

^^^^^This post would not have had nearly the same effect had the title of the post not been " eduncan, eduncan, eduncan"

 

[theogt]

Sack yardage is subtracted from passing yardage so it ought to be strongly negatively correlated with yards per attempt.

If you add the sack yardage back, you would get a better estimation of the effect a strong pass rush has on passing plays that don't result in sacks, which is really what you are driving at.

Not necessarily. A sack does two things: (1) it results in negative yardage, and (2) it prevents any positive yardage that would have been gained from a completion.

So, looking at gross yardage, rather than net of sacks, wouldn't necessarily tell the whole story.

 

[zrinkill]

Our 2002 team had a better pass defense.

Which of these corners was better than Henry or Newman?

Mario Edwards
Dwayne Goodrich
Pete Hunter
Derek Ross
Bryant Westbrook

None of them are even as good as an old Glenn.

Which one? I don't expect you to answer.

Not gonna answer huh?

 

[DallasEast]

Not gonna answer huh?

Be patient. He's praying to Eisen for guidance.

 

[speedkilz88]

Be patient. He's praying to Eisen for guidance.

Eisen's a little tied up right now with wifey problems. Trying to explain why his internet hottie claims they've been friends for ten years.

 

[DallasEast]

Eisen's a little tied up right now with wifey problems. Trying to explain why his internet hottie claims they've been friends for ten years.

:laugh2: