Metric-based breakdown of Zeke’s career

[SteveTheCowboy]

It's always funny when people want to compare situations/TBs that are 30 years apart when the league has changed drastically over that time period.

It's just more rationalizing to try to convince oneself Zeke is still a great RB. He's not. He's not a threat. He's a guy that will pound between the tackles, will rip off few, if any bigger runs, isn't much of a big home run threat in the passing game, but is still a good blocker. That's it.

I need to see the justification for why Elliott needs 25 carries? What leads you to believe he'll become a real big time threat on carries 15-25? There is zero evidence to support that claim.

Bullsht.

There is PLENTY of evidence big RBs gain more yards as the game wears on. It's how a running game works. Sure...there are zip plays....of course.

You never heard of pound and grind? "soften up the defenses". Of course you have you are just pretending now to justify your zeke hate.

You don't get thos ebig running yards against a good defense until you beat them up some. It;s why #2s get more YPS.

THIS IS PURE FOOTBALL HISTORY PROVEN OVER TIME. I can't believe you are arguing it.
The problem with us is we abandon it after three run plays up the clogged middle and act like zeke is fat. Even Tony has trouble there.

Some teams choose a passing attack...and that is fine. NFC East has historically had poundings RB's. You wear them down and establish the run. It means you have to commit.

If we want Dak to be elite and have West Coast Passing numbers...then yes...zeke is a waste.

If we no longer have the the desire or ability to have a pounding ball control running game...fine zeke is a waste.

But to say Pollard can do it...is totally made up in your head.


I ask you again....plerase answer. What would Emmitt do with 9 carries. Or 12. NOTHING!

 

[SteveTheCowboy]

Yes, Elliott is a better blocker than Pollard. However, at this point, Elliott isnt the better runner.

And therein lies the dilemma. We have a guy who isn't a bell cow type TB in Pollard but the one eating up oodles of cap space to be the bell cow is basically a between the tackles grinder and good blocker.

They run different plays.

Dak will get Killled with TOny being featured. Tony will get killed being featured. HE got injured running his best and OPEN play in the flats. You want him to block O line and blitzing LBers.

 

[Sydla]

Bullsht.

There is PLENTY of evidence big RBs gain more yards as the game wears on. It's how a running game works. Sure...there are zip plays....of course.

You never heard of pound and grind? "soften up the defenses". Of course you have you are just pretending now to justify your zeke hate.

You don't get thos ebig running yards against a good defense until you beat them up some. It;s why #2s get more YPS.

THIS IS PURE FOOTBALL HISTORY PROVEN OVER TIME. I can't believe you are arguing it.
The problem with us is we abandon it after three run plays up the clogged middle and act like zeke is fat. Even Tony has trouble there.

Some teams choose a passing attack...and that is fine. NFC East has historically had poundings RB's. You wear them down and establish the run. It means you have to commit.

If we want Dak to be elite and have West Coast Passing numbers...then yes...zeke is a waste.

If we no longer have the the desire or ability to have a pounding ball control running game...fine zeke is a waste.

But to say Pollard can do it...is totally made up in your head.


I ask you again....plerase answer. What would Emmitt do with 9 carries. Or 12. NOTHING!

There is limited data available for Smith in terms of advanced stats but his career averages by quarter wouldn't seem to prove the fact that he churns up way more yards at the end of games than at the beginning. For example, his 1st Q average per run was 4.0 yards. His 4th Q average, however, was only 3.8. But again, I am not sure how much you can glean from that.

And let's note, nowhere have I said that Pollard is the bell cow guy. I am not sure he's a 20 carary a game guy either. But neither is Zeke at this point.

Look at San Fran. They have a great running game. Or Philly. Who is their bell cow that runs 25 times a game?

 

[Sydla]

They run different plays.

Dak will get Killled with TOny being featured. Tony will get killed being featured. HE got injured running his best and OPEN play in the flats. You want him to block O line and blitzing LBers.

This is a myth that has been refuted here. They run some of the same plays. Actually they run more different runs with Pollard because he's quick enough to get outside. Pitches and sweeps and tosses have largely been out of the playbook for Zeke now (they ran a few last night but that was against a skeleton Eagles front).

It's like the myth that Elliott runs into way more stacked lines than Pollard or any other Cowboys TB.

Here's the reality. Elliott isn't a great back anymore. He's not explosive. He's not a home run threat. He's limited in the passing game anymore. With the OL issues, his flaws become even more apparent. Teams don't even bother to contain the outside run anymore. Go back to that Cards game and every hand off to Elliott, the Cards OLBs/DEs were crashing down on him.

It really is peculiar that you struggle to admit something that is really pretty obvious at this point.

 

[Maxmadden]

It's really not important which side you are on. He will play one more year but in April we will draft his replacement(s).

 

[Corso]

“I don’t need to know how to read no book to understand that mumbo jumbo article is a bunch of lies from the devil.” — terra

I might not know no art, but I know what I like.
Buy that beautiful Dog Poker Game painting on black felt!

 

[SteveTheCowboy]

There is limited data available for Smith in terms of advanced stats but his career averages by quarter wouldn't seem to prove the fact that he churns up way more yards at the end of games than at the beginning. For example, his 1st Q average per run was 4.0 yards. His 4th Q average, however, was only 3.8. But again, I am not sure how much you can glean from that.

And let's note, nowhere have I said that Pollard is the bell cow guy. I am not sure he's a 20 carary a game guy either. But neither is Zeke at this point.

Look at San Fran. They have a great running game. Or Philly. Who is their bell cow that runs 25 times a game?

Fair enough.

I do like a two back system....just not ours. I think Moore is extremely inconsistent and often afraid.

 

[SteveTheCowboy]

This is a myth that has been refuted here. They run some of the same plays. Actually they run more different runs with Pollard because he's quick enough to get outside. Pitches and sweeps and tosses have largely been out of the playbook for Zeke now (they ran a few last night but that was against a skeleton Eagles front).

It's like the myth that Elliott runs into way more stacked lines than Pollard or any other Cowboys TB.

Here's the reality. Elliott isn't a great back anymore. He's not explosive. He's not a home run threat. He's limited in the passing game anymore. With the OL issues, his flaws become even more apparent. Teams don't even bother to contain the outside run anymore. Go back to that Cards game and every hand off to Elliott, the Cards OLBs/DEs were crashing down on him.

It really is peculiar that you struggle to admit something that is really pretty obvious at this point.

I have admitted several times we're not longer going to see 2016 Zeke. As a matter of fact...that was a freak season and set the bar WAY too high for the rest of his career.

I just don;t think he's as toast as haters say. I believe injury, an inconsistent O-line, and poor run game scheme have a lot to do with it. See Ronnie's great breakdowns.

Peculiar that you struggle to admit something that is really pretty obvious at this point.

 

[blueblood70]

same old garbage in a different package. Dak haters and Zeke haters are all a bunch of morons.

exactly,

 

[Ranching]

interesting article and breakdown.

I’m not saying I’m right or wrong, I’m just some dude on my couch, but this certainly supports what I’ve always felt about him. I think part if it is I pay no attention to college football so I had no prior knowledge of him.

Anyway I like these data driven articles, be nice everyone.

https://www.bluechipscouting.com/nfl-articles-1/zr/analytics/zekeoverrated

Way to much to read, I'll trust the eye test....did he earn his contract? Maybe, is he worth it now? Nope....is he still a good all around back when you don't worry about his paycheck? Yep...

 

[SteveTheCowboy]

What are you not computing?

Zeke doesn't deserve 25 carries a game. He’s a non-threat.

So explain the higher YPC with MORE carries? Pretty easy computation.

 

[SteveTheCowboy]

Way to much to read, I'll trust the eye test....did he earn his contract? Maybe, is he worth it now? Nope....is he still a good all around back when you don't worry about his paycheck? Yep...

If it's just the contract that steams people.....that's the way of the NFL, especially the superstars. They get paid and fans complain.

By comparison to a rookie contract, Dak D-Law, and Zeke may never live up to their upgrade.

But, winning changes everything. People are, in one form or another, in the dumps and choose the easy targets. Money Men.

 

[CATCH17]

They run different plays.

Dak will get Killled with TOny being featured. Tony will get killed being featured. HE got injured running his best and OPEN play in the flats. You want him to block O line and blitzing LBers.

No he won’t. Teams are playing 2 high safeties and do not care about blitzing us.

They’re begging us to run and we can’t do it so they’re selling out on stopping Dak.


Also, Pollard is league average at blocking.

A productive run game makes Dallas and Dak better. Running Zeke is a good way to be terrible on 3rd down and punt a lot.

 

[CATCH17]

If it's just the contract that steams people.....that's the way of the NFL, especially the superstars. They get paid and fans complain.

By comparison to a rookie contract, Dak D-Law, and Zeke may never live up to their upgrade.

But, winning changes everything. People are, in one form or another, in the dumps and choose the easy targets. Money Men.

The contract is fine if he’s a top tier back. He’s just not very good and volume is the only thing making his numbers look decent.

Pollard would’ve had 1300-1400 yards easy with 230 touches.

 

[Hadenough]

What seems to stand out to me in that article is Zeke had 600 carries his last two years at Ohio. Than Garrett was giving him 400 touches for a few seasons. Zeke is wearing down and if you look around the league there are a couple other backs that are starting to wear down. Barkley is done and Chubb is slowing.

 

[atlantacowboy]

interesting article and breakdown.

I’m not saying I’m right or wrong, I’m just some dude on my couch, but this certainly supports what I’ve always felt about him. I think part if it is I pay no attention to college football so I had no prior knowledge of him.

Anyway I like these data driven articles, be nice everyone.

https://www.bluechipscouting.com/nfl-articles-1/zr/analytics/zekeoverrated

PFF has been showing this for years, but the Cowboys aren't a metrics team. We like to go with our gut feelings and inspirational leanings.

 

[SteveTheCowboy]

The contract is fine if he’s a top tier back. He’s just not very good and volume is the only thing making his numbers look decent.

Pollard would’ve had 1300-1400 yards easy with 230 touches.

"Would have".

You have a fine imagination.

 

[SteveTheCowboy]

PFF has been showing this for years, but the Cowboys aren't a metrics team. We like to go with our gut feelings and inspirational leanings.

That is true. Like qb decisions in 2016.

 

[CATCH17]

"Would have".

You have a fine imagination.

Yeah. I’m really going out on a limb aren’t I? Lol

 

[heir]

interesting article and breakdown.

I’m not saying I’m right or wrong, I’m just some dude on my couch, but this certainly supports what I’ve always felt about him. I think part if it is I pay no attention to college football so I had no prior knowledge of him.

Anyway I like these data driven articles, be nice everyone.

https://www.bluechipscouting.com/nfl-articles-1/zr/analytics/zekeoverrated

I'm not talking about Zeke now, he obviously isn't the same player he was, but any system of ranking that had him ranked as the 16th best running back in 2016 is something I can never trust. That is flat out crazy.