More aggressive offense next year

[skinsscalper]

You've gone to the extreme.

Who says something in between wouldn't have worked better?

Again, this offense ended up 5th in scoring, just like it did the prior season.

Unlike the prior season we went 12-4 when we ran the ball as opposed to 8-8 when we chucked it around. Weird.

 

[Stash]

I think the results were very good, but they could have been better IMO.

I'll take them over anything we've had under Garrett previously. As I've mentioned, my only issue was tendencies and not enough of a commitment on third and short.

Two small quibbles with the passing game. One, the #2 wide receiver needs to be a better, more reliable, more consistent threat. Otherwise, the coverage is pretty simple, double Bryant and man up on 'the other guy'. But that's player development/improvement and not scheme or playcalling.

And two, continue to integrate Escobar into the offense. You used a 2nd rounder on the guy, use him! Otherwise, it's the third pick wasted on a tight end you never use and a waste of resources.

But these are minor criticisms of an overall offense that I am very happy with.

 

[sureletsrace]

First Dez was going to cost 14+ million a year, Murray 8+ million... together that would have been 22 million on two skill position players. Gronk is represents a much better cost-benefit ratio than either of them. Outside of Gronk they don't pay skill position players. And with good reason. You give a QB time and you run the ball well enough behind a good offensive line and the skill position players elevate to a higher level, especially if they have been in a system a while.

Cowboys will struggle putting a defense together, meanwhile Romo's time is running out.

That's why we let Murray go. Dez is our Gronk. It looks like, outside of Dez, the Cowboys aren't paying skill position players. The defense is a work in progress.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

I'll take them over anything we've had under Garrett previously. As I've mentioned, my only issue was tendencies and not enough of a commitment on third and short.

Two small quibbles with the passing game. One, the #2 wide receiver needs to be a better, more reliable, more consistent threat. Otherwise, the coverage is pretty simple, double Bryant and man up on 'the other guy'. But that's player development/improvement and not scheme or playcalling.

And two, continue to integrate Escobar into the offense. You used a 2nd rounder on the guy, use him! Otherwise, it's the third pick wasted on a tight end you never use and a waste of resources.

But these are minor criticisms of an overall offense that I am very happy with.

Oh I think the offense was fundamentally better in '14.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

Unlike the prior season we went 12-4 when we ran the ball as opposed to 8-8 when we chucked it around. Weird.

I guess I'm not sure of your point.

 

[SDCowboy]

Two small quibbles with the passing game. One, the #2 wide receiver needs to be a better, more reliable, more consistent threat. Otherwise, the coverage is pretty simple, double Bryant and man up on 'the other guy'. But that's player development/improvement and not scheme or playcalling.

Agreed. IMO, Twill needs to take a massive leap forward this season.

 

[Yakuza Rich]

It's a tough battle. The ability of Romo and our receiving threats makes high volume passing not a bad decision, depending on matchup. However, like you said, protecting the defense, and Romo (and his back) are also paramount to success, and scaling back on the pass and running frequently behind our oline is not a bad decision.

It's a good problem to have, but it also creates other issues for the staff and puts a lot of of pressure on them to formulate the correct gameplan and call the right plays in game.

Personally, I think high volume passing would be a horrendous decision. We were ever so close going to the NFC Championship game and went 12-4 during the regular season which included a victory over Seattle in Seattle.

The playcalling on offense worked extremely well. It's often called 'complimentary football.'

Romo has proven that he doesn't throw the ball as well once he starts getting more than 35 pass attempts. That's when he's more likely to get intercepted. I tend to think it is due to the opposing D-Coordinators and defense starting to get a read on where he's going to go with the ball. But, the larger picture is that the more passing typically means the more dink-n-dunk routes instead of those mid-range and deep passing off of play action which is a larger strength of Romo's game.

Then you have his back issues, the defense issues and trying to keep the team as a whole healthy.

If we could get the same offensive production next season and improve the defensive performance, we'll be far better than if we try to start throwing more and mistakenly believe that Romo will be just as effective throwing more.

I absolutely loved how the offense was designed last season. No more of throwing it 45+ times a game and having to run these complicated plays to only get 6 yards if we can complete the pass. No having the putrid defense on the field for the entire game. Just good ole balanced and efficient football. If the running game isn't working early on, keep running the ball because it helps wear out the opponent, keeps your defense off the field and eventually sets things up for the passing game.






YR

 

[Yakuza Rich]

I'll take them over anything we've had under Garrett previously. As I've mentioned, my only issue was tendencies and not enough of a commitment on third and short.

Two small quibbles with the passing game. One, the #2 wide receiver needs to be a better, more reliable, more consistent threat. Otherwise, the coverage is pretty simple, double Bryant and man up on 'the other guy'. But that's player development/improvement and not scheme or playcalling.

And two, continue to integrate Escobar into the offense. You used a 2nd rounder on the guy, use him! Otherwise, it's the third pick wasted on a tight end you never use and a waste of resources.

But these are minor criticisms of an overall offense that I am very happy with.

Obviously, I would like T. Williams to get better. But, the offense was quite explosive without him getting much attention as the passing game started to shift more to Beasley as 2nd option. IIRC, Beasley had a few nagging injuries early on and I don't think Romo was looking for him early on either. But when Beasley became a viable option, the offense was producing at a high rate and Williams wasn't getting many receptions since we were also only throwing about 30-35 times a game and Murray was also one of our receiving threats.

I think the issue with Escobar is that we should not have drafted him in the first place. It never made sense to me to draft a #2 TE in a round earlier before your #1 TE (3rd round). To me, I would think that the logic is that if you can find a #1 TE like Witten in the 3rd round, then you should be able to find a #2 TE in the 3rd round or later. The other issue for Escobar is that Hanna blocked really well for us which surprised me. I do think we need to use Escobar more, but I don't use somebody in fear of wasting a pick and it was a bad pick to begin with so the better answer would be to not draft a #2 TE so high.

My only issue with the offense last year is that they would run on 1st down too often and then go shotgun, empty backfield on 2nd down. Almost like clockwork. I'm not a fan of shotgun on 1st or 2nd down and definitely not empty backfield on 1st and 2nd down because it tells the defense you're going to throw the ball. The good news is that it worked last year and I would imagine that teams will key on it in 2015, but by balancing out the playcalling it can now throw defenses completely off.





YR

 

[perrykemp]

Have the Packers imploded? No but they haven't gotten better either.

I have a hard time seeing the Packers being any worse next season at this point.

AFAIK the Packers return all 11 starters on offense, only one of which is 30 years old or more (Rodgers who is 31).

Their defense improved in the 2nd half of the season last year after they replaced Hawk with Matthews at ILB. I believe they'll return 10 out of 11 guys on defense with only one of them being 30 years old or more in Julius Peppers.

Like the Cowboys they also have a number of young ascending players like Davonte Adams and Ha Ha Clinton Dix.

I would agree with you at this point in the off-season they really haven't gotten any better, however, they will return 21 out 22 starters -- on what is a very young roster so it's hard to see them taking a step back.

 

[percyhoward]

Less is more with Romo. Once he starts throwing more than 35 passes, his performance drops on those particular passes.

Again, you're confusing cause and effect. Merely throwing fewer passes is not what made us a better team. First, we became a better team -- mainly because of OL improvements made through the draft -- and this resulted in more leads and fewer pass attempts. Teams don't throw as often when they're not behind as often. They also don't throw as often when they've got an OL that can impose its will on defenses. Try using the "less Romo" formula with the 2012 OL and see what happens.

Also, I'd like to see your evidence that Romo's performance level drops after a high number of attempts in a game. The only splits I could find were for 31+ attempts, and there's no drop in his performance compared to the top quarterbacks in the league. The numbers below are for each QB's last 5 full seasons. The split includes the 31st pass attempt of the game, and all subsequent attempts. Maybe you have data that shows that Romo blows the roof off with attempts 31-35?

after 30 attempts in a game
Rodgers 224 of 337 2989 30 7 115.4
PManning 490 of 758 5587 48 21 96.2
Brady 400 of 648 4605 36 13 93.3
Brees 573 of 904 6517 51 26 91.8
Romo 278 of 445 3251 24 13 90.4

on attempts 1-30 of a game
Rodgers 1337 of 2004 16796 138 29 109.5
Romo 1486 of 2246 17853 126 44 100.9
PManning 1598 of 2331 18477 149 48 105.0
Brees 1666 of 2389 18862 143 58 102.9
Brady 1479 of 2302 17807 132 31 101.4

difference in passer rating after 30 attempts
Rodgers +5.9
Brady -8.1
PManning -8.8
Romo -10.5
Brees -11.1

Rodgers is known for his risk aversion, and taking a lot of sacks late in close games. His record in 4th-qtr comebacks and game-winning drives reflects this more than his passer rating would. But the norm for the rest of these QB after 30 attempts is that their rating drops 8-11 points. If you're still throwing after 30 attempts, it's more likely that the outcome of the game is still in doubt, and also more likely that your team is behind. By no means is it a given, but certainly more likely.

It's also important to note that, while the effect on Romo's rating is in line with that of Brees, Manning, and Brady after 30 attempts, the situations his team is in during these attempts are quite different over the last five seasons. After 30 attempts, Romo has been much more likely to be trailing in the game, and much less likely to be playing with a comfortable lead than any of these other players. So one would expect Romo's rating to drop noticeably compared to the league's elite QB after 30 attempts, but it doesn't.

games entering 4th qtr leading by more than one score
Brady 38
PManning 35
Rodgers 35
Brees 28
Romo 18

games entering 4th qtr trailing
Romo 46
Brees 34
Brady 28
PManning 28
Rodgers 27

 

[KJJ]

Personally I think the offense ran the ball too often.

I think it cost the offense being as potent as it could have been.

Running the ball a lot kept the Cowboys from being explosive but it led to an efficient offense that controlled the ball keeping the defense off the field. If the Cowboys look to be more potent it will lead to more mistakes and less efficiency. The Cowboys won 12 games and had a playoff win with the offense they had last season and Romo had the most efficient season of his career receiving 2 MVP votes. No need to change what worked but with Murray gone the Cowboys may have to change their approach if they can't run the ball as effectively.

 

[KJJ]

I would like to see the same efficient offense in 2015 that we saw in 2014 with an improved defense. A more aggressive offense will lead to more mistakes and a less efficient Tony Romo. To be more aggressive you have to throw the ball especially down the field and I don't see that approach making the Cowboys a better team in 2015. Turnovers and 3 and outs put the defense right back on the field the Cowboys need to continue controlling the football. Seattle's success has been due to offensive efficiency and great defense. They've achieved that by running the football which has limited Wilson's mistakes making him an efficient QB but not a very productive QB. With Murray gone the Cowboys will likely have to throw the ball more because he was a complete back who could finish runs which moved the chains.

Without Murray the Cowboys will lose some punch offensively and will have to put the ball up more hopefully not affecting Romo's efficiency too much. For Romo to stay efficient and healthy he can't be put in a position where he's back shouldering most of the offense. There's been some very explosive offenses come up short due to not having a strong defense and have it come back to bite them. The Cowboys offense ranked ahead of both NE and Seattle but their defense ranked lower. If the Cowboys can maintain an efficient offense and improve defensively generating a more formidable pass rush they'll take another step forward in 2015.

 

[perrykemp]

I would like to see the same efficient offense in 2015 that we saw in 2014 with an improved defense

This.

If the Cowboys can achieve that in 2015 they'll have a good shot at advancing deep into the playoffs if not the promised land.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

We were 12-4. The offense should not change a THING. The more conservative playcalling benefited THIS TEAM. It may not benefit fantasy football but it benefited this team.

 

[perrykemp]

Again, you're confusing cause and effect. Merely throwing fewer passes is not what made us a better team. First, we became a better team -- mainly because of OL improvements made through the draft -- and this resulted in more leads and fewer pass attempts. Teams don't throw as often when they're not behind as often. They also don't throw as often when they've got an OL that can impose its will on defenses. Try using the "less Romo" formula with the 2012 OL and see what happens.

Also, I'd like to see your evidence that Romo's performance level drops after a high number of attempts in a game. The only splits I could find were for 31+ attempts, and there's no drop in his performance compared to the top quarterbacks in the league. The numbers below are for each QB's last 5 full seasons. The split includes the 31st pass attempt of the game, and all subsequent attempts. Maybe you have data that shows that Romo blows the roof off with attempts 31-35?

after 30 attempts in a game
Rodgers 224 of 337 2989 30 7 115.4
PManning 490 of 758 5587 48 21 96.2
Brady 400 of 648 4605 36 13 93.3
Brees 573 of 904 6517 51 26 91.8
Romo 278 of 445 3251 24 13 90.4

on attempts 1-30 of a game
Rodgers 1337 of 2004 16796 138 29 109.5
Romo 1486 of 2246 17853 126 44 100.9
PManning 1598 of 2331 18477 149 48 105.0
Brees 1666 of 2389 18862 143 58 102.9
Brady 1479 of 2302 17807 132 31 101.4

difference in passer rating after 30 attempts
Rodgers +5.9
Brady -8.1
PManning -8.8
Romo -10.5
Brees -11.1

Rodgers is known for his risk aversion, and taking a lot of sacks late in close games. His record in 4th-qtr comebacks and game-winning drives reflects this more than his passer rating would. But the norm for the rest of these QB after 30 attempts is that their rating drops 8-11 points. If you're still throwing after 30 attempts, it's more likely that the outcome of the game is still in doubt, and also more likely that your team is behind. By no means is it a given, but certainly more likely.

It's also important to note that, while the effect on Romo's rating is in line with that of Brees, Manning, and Brady after 30 attempts, the situations his team is in during these attempts are quite different over the last five seasons. After 30 attempts, Romo has been much more likely to be trailing in the game, and much less likely to be playing with a comfortable lead than any of these other players. So one would expect Romo's rating to drop noticeably compared to the league's elite QB after 30 attempts, but it doesn't.

games entering 4th qtr leading by more than one score
Brady 38
PManning 35
Rodgers 35
Brees 28
Romo 18

games entering 4th qtr trailing
Romo 46
Brees 34
Brady 28
PManning 28
Rodgers 27

Nice analysis. Thank you for this.

 

[skinsscalper]

I guess I'm not sure of your point.

Running the ball effectively has a wider impact than just offensive rankings. It was critical to keeping a mediocre defense off the field and fresh which, in turn, made them even more effective than the previous year's group that sported the likes of Jason Hatcher (with his astronomical sack numbers) and the leading sack holder in team history in Demarcus Ware.

We ran the ball the following year minus every single guy that you could deem a "defensive leader", at that point, and were still more effective than the year before. It's no coincidence that we ran a ball and clock control offense and still managed to duplicate the offensive ranking we had the year before (which was never a problem) and helped our defense immensely. I've read that now that we have a legitimate pass rusher we can "open it up more". That's a major mistake philosophically. Hardy will be more effective when he's fresh and rested than he will be if we're quick strike and "aggressive". Aggressive is what had Chip Kelley's defense gassed and ineffective for the better part of the last 6 weeks of the season. Again, I'll take more of the same of what we've been doing with an improved defense.

 

[percyhoward]

This! Any idea having Romo throw it 30+ times is a bad idea.

I like being able to run the ball at will as long as we hold onto the ball long enough to finish off drives.

But 30+ attempts for Romo is no more of a "bad idea" than 30+ attempts for Brady, Manning, or Brees.

 

[Galian Beast]

That's why we let Murray go. Dez is our Gronk. It looks like, outside of Dez, the Cowboys aren't paying skill position players. The defense is a work in progress.

Patriots have gronk on a long term contract, and dollar for dollar he makes a lot more sense than dez

 

[MichaelWinicki]

Running the ball effectively has a wider impact than just offensive rankings. It was critical to keeping a mediocre defense off the field and fresh which, in turn, made them even more effective than the previous year's group that sported the likes of Jason Hatcher (with his astronomical sack numbers) and the leading sack holder in team history in Demarcus Ware.

We ran the ball the following year minus every single guy that you could deem a "defensive leader", at that point, and were still more effective than the year before. It's no coincidence that we ran a ball and clock control offense and still managed to duplicate the offensive ranking we had the year before (which was never a problem) and helped our defense immensely. I've read that now that we have a legitimate pass rusher we can "open it up more". That's a major mistake philosophically. Hardy will be more effective when he's fresh and rested than he will be if we're quick strike and "aggressive". Aggressive is what had Chip Kelley's defense gassed and ineffective for the better part of the last 6 weeks of the season. Again, I'll take more of the same of what we've been doing with an improved defense.

No one suggested they shouldn't run the ball. Nor was it suggested that they go back to a 65/35 pass/run ratio.

Neither was suggested.

 

[skinsscalper]

No one suggested they shouldn't run the ball. Nor was it suggested that they go back to a 65/35 pass/run ratio.

Neither was suggested.

Fair enough. So then what is it you suggest? (no flame, honest question).