So, what team is actually going to offer an insane pile of cash to Demarco Murray?
We're certain that's what he wants, and almost certain it isn't going to be Dallas that gives it to him. But somewhere amidst the discussions, we've never really thought through what the potential actually is outside of Valley Ranch for Murray.
Why would ANYBODY pay Murray huge money? It really makes no sense to do so.
First, most teams have a pretty good or better running back right now. It's much harder to think of teams that don't have good running backs than to think of the ones that do. Good running backs can be had for fairly cheap. There's not this desperate yearning for good running backs out there, especially when cap space is such a precious commodity and other positions are so much harder to find.
Second, Murray isn't the only fish out there. He could be competing with Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, and Frank Gore on the open market. Murray's lack of production and injuries prior to the formation of this gem of an offensive line work against him in that comparison.
Third, if you really need one, they're incredibly cheap in the draft, and this is a rich draft for running backs. Melvin Gordon, TJ Yeldon, Todd Gurley, Tevin Coleman, Duke Johnson, and several others can be had with a second-round pick. Murray was a 3rd rounder, so we know this well. Why not buy brand new tires for an 80 percent discount?
Fourth, Murray is not really that special. Yes, he's really good, but he doesn't have breakaway speed, he fumbles a bit much, he's had an injury history, and he's entering the latter phase of his career. Murray is more complete than most backs, he blocks well in protection, and he catches the ball well, but he's not the only back like that. Really, only Adrian Peterson is transcendent in terms of changing a game consistently.
I realize it only takes one team to change the market, but I don't see a team out there that is hankering for him so much they're willing to break the bank. The usual suspects, Washington and Oakland, come to mind, but the Commanders have a good back and the Raiders are OK there. Surely, Murray is smart enough to not go there for a rebuilding project for the sake of an extra few dollars.
I don't see a contending team that appears to be only a running back away from completing their puzzle. Maybe Baltimore? They're too smart to overpay an aging running back coming off a heavy workload.
So who? Murray is not stupid, and he has to realize that winning the rushing title and staying on his original team - which happens to be the highest profile team in the league and is now a Super Bowl contender - is the better move here. Endorsement opportunities after signing should skyrocket for Murray after the season he just had, and he can make up the difference that way. Can't do that in Oakland or Cleveland.
All in all, I think Murray will find a rather disinterested market out there. Dallas is playing this beautifully (they finally know what they're doing!), and that 4 years for $16 million might get it done if they just negotiate the amount guaranteed a bit.
I don't see Dallas placing the franchise tag on him, which will be over $10 million thanks to some stupidly regrettable contracts out there that teams are shedding. Might as well draft a running back and commit that money to going after Suh or someone else on the defensive line.
So while Dez is about to cash in big, Murray is probably not. Both, however, might sign for long term and stay in Dallas when it's all said and done.
