Next Gen Stats Wk 18 - WR Separation

[Oz-of-Cowboy-Country]

Looking at your video clip of the pick-6, the first problem one sees is the horrible and lazy rounded out-route Noah Brown ran. He never forced the CB to respect his route running, thus allowed the CB to easily break on Noah's lazy route and step in front for the easy pick-6.

Here is a video explaining how to properly run passing routes AND WHY IT'S IMPORTANT...to prevent the end result we saw in the pick-6 up above.



Here's a hint: Get seriously and properly informed about the technical aspects of the game of football before you keep making a fool of yourself by blaming the QB for that pick-6.

Unfortunately, the quarterback is responsible for what happens with the ball after it leaves his hand. But the real problem is Dallas doesn't run 10 and 20 yard outs. All of their out routes are five yard outs. So the defense gets used to seeing the same plays over and over again. The CB on the pick six didn't even attempt to turn his hips up field. A wide receiver can get open easier if you makes the DB turn his hips and sprint...before the WR makes his cut. Meaning it's easier to get open on a 20 yard out route than it is on a five yard out route.

Our play caller those not know how to mix his plays up to keep a defender guessing.

 

[DFWJC]

I like the effort Next Gen puts in, but "tight window" and "separation" stats are extremely flawed.

If a WR has to slow down or if the ball gets there later in the route, the window all of sudden becomes "tigher" and the "separation" becomes less.

QBs that see it and then throw it or (don't see it at the right time or throw to the more covered WR...etc.etc) will usually have tighter windows and less separation unless their WRs are insanely good.

Very subjective

 

[DFWJC]

Unfortunately, the quarterback is responsible for what happens with the ball after it leaves his hand. But the real problem is Dallas doesn't run 10 and 20 yard outs. All of their out routes are five yard outs. So the defense gets used to seeing the same plays over and over again. The CB on the pick six didn't even attempt to turn his hips up field. A wide receiver can get open easier if you makes the DB turn his hips and sprint...before the WR makes his cut. Meaning it's easier to get open on a 20 yard out route than it is on a five yard out route.

Our play caller those not know how to mix his plays up to keep a defender guessing.

No they are not.

They almost always have at least one option in the 10-20 range on each pass play.
That's just not true

 

[DFWJC]

Is Kellen Moore at least attempting to scheme and call any plays which would give the WRs an better opportunity and higher odds to create separation?

Have you ever watched the Warner video breakdowns?
There are players running free in this scheme IF we go to the right guy at the right time. The video does not lie.

 

[Oz-of-Cowboy-Country]

No they are not.

They almost always have at least one option in the 10-20 range on each pass play.
That's just not true

The word "all" is a figure of speech. But since you say it's not true...pull up a highlight of Dak throwing a 10 - 20 yard out.

 

[cnuball21]

Have you ever watched the Warner video breakdowns?
There are players running free in this scheme IF we go to the right guy at the right time. The video does not lie.

Part of the EPA metric is called throw selection which essentially means going to the right guy. Dak is in the 97th percentile this year.

Our WRs inability to separate is not about going to the right guy as it’s also per target.

 

[DFWJC]

The word "all" is a figure of speech. But since you say it's not true...pull up a highlight of Dak throwing a 10 - 20 yard out.

There you have it.

 

[DFWJC]

Part of the EPA metric is called throw selection which essentially means going to the right guy. Dak is in the 97th percentile this year.

Our WRs inability to separate is not about going to the right guy as it’s also per target.

I hear you...
I'm not saying our 2-5 WRs are not getting open as often as they should.

I'm saying that stat is subjective for the reasons outlined.
And even the stat you mentioned (also subjective, btw) does not explain separation because you can go to the right guy but throw late or off-target enough to reduce the separation that might be there with perfect timing and leading the receiver.

This is not necessarily pointing at our guy, it's pointing out the obvious with these subjective stats.

 

[cnuball21]

I hear you...
I'm not saying our 2-5 WRs are not getting open as often as they should.

I'm saying that stat is subjective for the reasons outlined.
And even the stat you mentioned (also subjective, btw) does not explain separation because you can go to the right guy but throw late or off-target enough to reduce the separation that might be there with perfect timing and leading the receiver.

This is not necessarily pointing at our guy, it's pointing out the obvious with these subjective stats.

A majority of the time where the throw goes shouldn’t dictate the amount of separation per target.

It’s a straight forward WR stat…and I feel like you’re just trying to turn it on the QB.

 

[DFWJC]

A majority of the time where the throw goes shouldn’t dictate the amount of separation per target.

It’s a straight forward WR stat…and I feel like you’re just trying to turn it on the QB.

Im not.
but I do think it is not just a WR stat (though maybe primarily so) and the QBs do play a big role in it.
for extremely obvious reasons
timing and ball placement effect almost every catch

If you disagree, thats fine

 

[Jarv]

Im not.
but I do think it is not just a WR stat (though maybe primarily so) and the QBs do play a big role in it.
for extremely obvious reasons
timing and ball placement effect almost every catch

If you disagree, thats fine

I'm with you, nicely stated.

 

[cnuball21]

Im not.
but I do think it is not just a WR stat (though maybe primarily so) and the QBs do play a big role in it.
for extremely obvious reasons
timing and ball placement effect almost every catch

If you disagree, thats fine

But we’re not talking about catching the ball or ball placement at all…we’re talking about the amount a WR seperates per target. The QB has practically zero impact on that.

If we wanted to talk about catches…sure.

 

[ondaedg]

Per PFF we ran a total of 3 play action passes. Insanely low. No motion, no play action, basic routes, no effort to pick/rub WRs open. And Washington had 7 in coverage the entire game. Unless KM is an idiot there’s no way this was his “How to beat the Commanders” plan.

 

[cnuball21]

Per PFF we ran a total of 3 play action passes. Insanely low. No motion, no play action, basic routes, no effort to pick/rub WRs open. And Washington had 7 in coverage the entire game. Unless KM is an idiot there’s no way this was his “How to beat the Commanders” plan.

This was likely intentional…even though I don’t agree with it.

 

[fansince68]

Think the front office knew they weren't good enough at DT/WR during the season and couldn't do much to fix it.

The Chiefs and 49er teams recognize their weaknesses and addresses them during the offseason. I have no trust in our braintrust.

 

[cnuball21]

The Chiefs and 49er teams recognize their weaknesses and addresses them during the offseason. I have no trust in our braintrust.

Yea, Mahomes is the best in football and the Chiefs continue to build around him.

Way more invested at the WR position than us and their OL is top 5 in pass pro win rate.

 

[unionjack8]

This is a huge issue.
Perhaps the routes are being designed so simply on each play to make it easier for Dak to understand and read.

 

[cnuball21]

This is a huge issue.
Perhaps the routes are being designed so simply on each play to make it easier for Dak to understand and read.

This is a WR metric and has nothing to do with the QB.

Even if what you’re saying is true, which it isn’t, it changes nothing about how bad our WRs are separating.

 

[unionjack8]

This is a WR metric and has nothing to do with the QB.

Even if what you’re saying is true, which it isn’t, it changes nothing about how bad our WRs are separating.

No but some routes are harder to get separation on than others, especially if there's no picks/rubs or bunch sets, so if we are running those types of routes time after time because of whatever reason then 100% its not a wr stat but a schematic issue , especially if we are tipping the routes by design, formation or signals

 

[cnuball21]

No but some routes are harder to get separation on than others, especially if there's no picks/rubs or bunch sets, so if we are running those types of routes time after time because of whatever reason then 100% its not a wr stat but a schematic issue , especially if we are tipping the routes by design, formation or signals

Sure, Kellen could do a better job scheming our dudes open at times but we had the top offense in football so not a good argument to lean on.

Outside of Lamb, WR is a big weakness and should be a priority to fix in the offseason.