NFC Playoff status ***merged*** **updated 12/20 post #226

[links18]

Would rather win out.

Who wouldn't?

I guess those who are afraid of a home playoff game.....

 

[mldardy]

Edit: Well damn. The simulator says the ONLY way Dallas gets the #1 seed is if Chicago beats Detroit, Detroit beats Green Bay and Seattle wins out. Very unlikely to happen.

Dallas gets #2 if Seattle beats Arizona and loses to St. Louis, Detroit loses to Chicago and Green Bay. (We are not going to assume Green Bay loses to Tampa Bay). So this scenario is pretty slim-to-none as well.

I think a little more realistic scenario to get the #2 seed is we win out, Arizona beats Seattle and wins the division, Detroit loses to Chicago and beats Green Bay to go 11-5. I know it's still far fetched but a little more possible than Seattle losing to St. Louis at home and Green Bay losing to Tampa. Although Green Bay losing to Tampa would be awesome. Tampa does play teams close especially during the 2nd half of the season they just don't have enough offense. Green Bay would have play like they did yesterday for Tampa to have a chance.

 

[goshan]

In my opinion, the most likely scenarios for us to get in the playoffs even if we lose to the colts (but beat the skins) are as follows:

1. Eagles lose to Skins or Giants OR
2. Detroit wins out (beats Chi and GB) OR
3. Detroit loses out (loses to Chi and GB) OR
4. Seahawks lose out (Arizona and Rams)

One of these 4 things would get us in.

Here is my take (my opinion on odds):

Chances Eagles lose to Skins or Giants - 25%
Chances Detroit wins out - 10%
Chances Detroit loses out - 20%
Changes Seahawks lose out - 5%

Based upon standard statistics, there is a 48.7% chance one of these 4 things happen. The formula is (100%) - (.75 x .90 x .80 x .95).

Meaning if we lose to Colts but beat the Skins, we have less than a 50% chance of getting in.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

I get that, but if either SEA or Arizona finish at 11-5....we are out. I do concede that we have the tie-breaker over GB and Seattle but other things have to fall our way.

Add: this is if DET beats GB and if we win at Washington.

Don't even try. They won't listen.

 

[Beast_from_East]

Do you realize how silly that sounds? If you can do it on the road, you can do it at home.

Idc what they record is at home. They've played better teams at home and it's not close.

Only 2 of our 4 home losses are to teams with winning records................so how the hell can it "not even be close" that our poor home record is due to playing better teams?

We have won @Seattle, @St. Louis, and @Philly and yet you claim our road schedule is so much easier than our home schedule.................Arizona is the only team with a winning record that we played exclusively at home and lost to and that mainly was due to Weeden playing and not Romo.

Do you ever fact check any of this before you post?

 

[Alexander]

In my opinion, the most likely scenarios for us to get in the playoffs even if we lose to the colts (but beat the skins) are as follows:

1. Eagles lose to Skins or Giants OR
2. Detroit wins out (beats Chi and GB) OR
3. Detroit loses out (loses to Chi and GB) OR
4. Seahawks lose out (Arizona and Rams)

Pretty depressing picture if the Cowboys lose to the Colts.

 

[Beast_from_East]

Doesn't matter if it's an anomaly. Some provision should be put in place to protect against this. Doesnt matter if it only happens once every 10 years. It should never happen. Put the best teams in the playoffs. This is the NFL. Not pop warner. Most watched sport in the US. There is a lot on the line. Smart guys making a ton of money make these rules. They can't do something to fix this crap? The NFC South should not get a team in if they are under .500 and there is a wild card contender with a better record. That's all they have to do. It's simple and they need to get it done. It's clear as day. Shouldn't have to win 12 games to get in because the NFC South blows.

The Patriots at 11-5 missed the playoffs in 2008.........................didn't affect the popularity or profitability of the NFL one bit.

Do you seriously think the NFL would pass a rule that could eliminate all the teams in a division from making the playoffs? Why in the hell would they even think of doing something like this when virtually all the teams in that division would mathematically still be in the mix up to the very end of the season?

Cowherd on "The Herd" today said that 19 teams are still mathematically alive for a playoff spot....................THE NFL LOVES THIS !!!!!

Fans in all those cities are tuning in to watch the games, they are buying tickets to go see the games, this is making the NFL millions.

Under your plan, once a team got to 9 losses on the year, they are barred from the playoffs and no need to watch the games or go to the games in those cities, what would be the point? NFL would lose millions under your plan, that is probably why not one single owner has even suggested such a thing.......................however almost all are supporting playoff expansion next year from 12 to 14 teams.

That 7th seed could be a team with a 500 record or worse...............you going to ban that team as well?............................Good luck with that.

 

[Alexander]

Good luck with that.

It is not going to happen. Now expanding the playoffs to include more of the bad teams that people are upset about getting in, quite likely.

Bottomline, most people care because it is affecting the Cowboys this time. No use in pretending that the outrage is not motivated by that.

 

[Beast_from_East]

Pretty depressing picture if the Cowboys lose to the Colts.

Yea, its pretty bleak if we lose to the Colts.


I am not expecting Philly to lose to the Skins or Giants and our wildcard chances are pretty slim since we only have tiebreak over Seattle.

 

[Alexander]

our wildcard chances are pretty slim since we only have tiebreak over Seattle.

The Lions are in the way too. Chicago could not beat a Pop Warner team, so that is also out.

 

[Beast_from_East]

It is not going to happen. Now expanding the playoffs to include more of the bad teams that people are upset about getting in, quite likely.

Bottomline, most people care because it is affecting the Cowboys this time. No use in pretending that the outrage is not motivated by that.

If the Cowboys were fighting for a playoff spot at 7-9, I don't think you would be hearing this much outrage.

 

[Beast_from_East]

The Lions are in the way too. Chicago could not beat a Pop Warner team, so that is also out.

Yea, Green Bay and Detroit are both getting into the playoffs...........one as division winner and one as wildcard..............we either win the division or fight it out with Arizona and Seattle for the last wildcard.

Not looking good for a wildcard, especially if Seattle wins the division.................Arizona is already guaranteed a playoff spot.


Its division or bust for Dallas.

 

[jobberone]

http://i471.***BLOCKED***/albums/rr75/jobberone/ScreenShot2014-12-16at75959AM_zps4806f506.png

http://i471.***BLOCKED***/albums/rr75/jobberone/ScreenShot2014-12-16at80350AM_zps5773f5a7.png

As you can see AZ has clinched a playoff berth; the only NFC team who has and is in the driver's seat for the number one seed. I think they lose one or both of these games.
http://i471.***BLOCKED***/albums/rr75/jobberone/ScreenShot2014-12-16at80731AM_zps18777eca.png

The Seahawks probably win both of their games but 0-2 isn't out of the question as the Rams and AZ have good Ds.
http://i471.***BLOCKED***/albums/rr75/jobberone/ScreenShot2014-12-16at81241AM_zps1b929e6d.png

GB should win the TB game and will be a favorite to beat the Lions. My guess is AZ loses one or both of their games and either GB, Sea or Dal wins the #1 seed.
http://i471.***BLOCKED***/albums/rr75/jobberone/ScreenShot2014-12-16at81613AM_zps13bcca69.png

The Lions have two away games. Who knows how the Bears will play. They could win out or lose 1-2 games. I expect them to win out beating GB for the North and getting the 1-2 seed.
http://i471.***BLOCKED***/albums/rr75/jobberone/ScreenShot2014-12-16at81947AM_zpsd6e34c27.png

The Saints and Falcons play one another this week. The Panthers play the Browns then NO. NO has the easier schedule. Cam is hurt. I'd rather play Car or Atl than the high scoring Saints if I had my druthers.

Both Philly and Dallas can win the East or a WC although one team out of the six top contenders left will miss the playoffs.

I don't have any predictions for Dal. Our D is so suspect we could win both or lose both games. Right now I'd guess we win out and get one of the top 3 seeds. We may face another win and in game in Was or at least a seeded playoff spot. I don't think we clinch a spot with a win next week.

 

[CCBoy]

Lol, Jobber...and to think, only a somewhat rudderless Arizona team currently has a better record.

With a schedule that finishes with a home game against Indianapolis, and an away game against Washington, I expect nothing less than a 12 win season.

I haven't succumbed to the negative nanny's visionary reactions.

 

[Jerryrage]

We aren't going to make the playoffs unless we win out. Playing with the yahoo playoff generator has made me depressed. We could easily be 11-5 and not be playoff bound.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario

11-5 with no playoffs, wow.. just wow.. You see teams with 6 wins that can have a shot lol

 

[jobberone]

Lol, Jobber...and to think, only a somewhat rudderless Arizona team currently has a better record.

With a schedule that finishes with a home game against Indianapolis, and an away game against Washington, I expect nothing less than a 12 win season.

I haven't succumbed to the negative nanny's visionary reactions.

I love my team but our D gives me heartburn. We need major refit on that side of the ball.

 

[TrailBlazer]

The Patriots at 11-5 missed the playoffs in 2008.........................didn't affect the popularity or profitability of the NFL one bit.

Do you seriously think the NFL would pass a rule that could eliminate all the teams in a division from making the playoffs? Why in the hell would they even think of doing something like this when virtually all the teams in that division would mathematically still be in the mix up to the very end of the season?

Cowherd on "The Herd" today said that 19 teams are still mathematically alive for a playoff spot....................THE NFL LOVES THIS !!!!!

Fans in all those cities are tuning in to watch the games, they are buying tickets to go see the games, this is making the NFL millions.

Under your plan, once a team got to 9 losses on the year, they are barred from the playoffs and no need to watch the games or go to the games in those cities, what would be the point? NFL would lose millions under your plan, that is probably why not one single owner has even suggested such a thing.......................however almost all are supporting playoff expansion next year from 12 to 14 teams.

That 7th seed could be a team with a 500 record or worse...............you going to ban that team as well?............................Good luck with that.

I don't care how good it is for the NFL. IDK why you do. And no 9 losses would not bar you from the playoffs in my plan(though it should). Try again. Expansion would work for me. They should be able to figure it out. I literally thought of that plan while I was typing it out. I want the best teams in, and the current format doesn't do that. Period. Just look at the standings in the NFC right now. I like the wildcards better than I like the 1 and 2 seeds. Just get the best teams in. 11 win teams should be in.

The seeding will also change. The NFC South shouldnt get the 4th seed. Just stupid this format.

 

[Doomsday101]

Right now hoping to see a Cowboys win vs the Colts and the skins pull the upset over Philly to clinch the east. Stranger things have happened. lol

 

[CCBoy]

I love my team but our D gives me heartburn. We need major refit on that side of the ball.

Hey, but four sacks showed up against a game Philadelphia team now.

 

[jobberone]

Hey, but four sacks showed up against a game Philadelphia team now.

Yeah, they are improving.