NFL History: Keeping a HC in his 5th season on last yr of his contract is not smart

[xwalker]

Won his first SB with the niners in year three.

Re-read your own post.

 

[Bobhaze]

Your statement:
Only 5 NFL head coaches in the Super Bowl era have won a Super Bowl in their fifth year or more with their current team.

First line in the OP: “NFL history has made it clear: In the last 56 seasons, if an NFL head coach is going to win a Super Bowl with their current team, it needs to happen during their first 4 years with that team.”

I may have misstated later, but the first line seems pretty clear to me.

 

[khiladi]

And Reid just happened to land the GOAT QB before winning.

He was always winning.. He was the best coach in the NFC bar none when he was with the Eagles. He just never won the SB.

 

[john van brocklin]

maybe one day we'll find the right coach

Maybe one day we will find the right GM

 

[Asklesko]

We should have hired Belichick.

 

[fivetwos]

The lame duck thing/uncertainty thing would typically be a problem, but only in the regard that the players may not respect the current coaching as being the highest authority….but we have that problem every season regardless.

The Jerry factor is much tougher to overcome than the lame duck issue.

And he makes it even worse by entertaining the question if he could work with Belichick instead of saying “we have a coach.”

 

[Coogiguy03]

Maybe one day we will find the right GM

One step at a time young man!!!! lol

 

[xwalker]

Look at this guy trying to be a bag early in the morning. Stop being silly you get what he’s really trying to say even if a mistake was made.

No team had won a Super Bowl after losing the first 2 games of the season until the 93 Cowboys...

Silly stats.

 

[Coogiguy03]

We should have hired Belichick.

Jerry said he can work with BB

 

[Bobhaze]

Re-read your own post.

X, I’m not sure what you’re trying to say. I did re-read my post. It seems like the first line made it clear. I make mistakes all the time so I have no problem correcting them.

No team had won a Super Bowl after losing the first 2 games of the season until the 93 Cowboys...

Silly stats.

Ok. But I’m not using that stat.

 

[Bobhaze]

Jerry said he can work with BB

But can Bill work with Jerry?

 

[john van brocklin]

The lame duck thing/uncertainty thing would typically be a problem, but only in the regard that the players may not respect the current coaching as being the highest authority….but we have that problem every season regardless.

The Jerry factor is much tougher to overcome than the lame duck issue.

And he makes it even worse by entertaining the question if he could work with Belichick instead of saying “we have a coach.”

This team can't rise above Jerry the GM.
He does so many small subtle things that hurt this team teams chance of winning, that its too much to overcome.

 

[john van brocklin]

One step at a time young man!!!! lol

Thanks for the compliment
I do consider 63 young!
Lol

 

[Brax]

NFL history has made it clear: In the last 56 seasons, if an NFL head coach is going to win a Super Bowl with their current team, it needs to happen during their first 4 years with that team. Why? Only 5 NFL head coaches in the Super Bowl era have won a Super Bowl in their fifth year or more with their current team.

These are the coaches that did that: Andy Reid, Chuck Noll, Tom Landry, Bill Cowher, and John Madden.

The bad news about that list is 4 of those 5 names last coached in the NFL over 20 years ago. Only Andy Reid is a current coach who has won a SB after 4 seasons with their current team. Kyle Shanahan could join that list if the niners win the SB in two weeks. But he’s at least taken two other teams to NFC championship games. So he’s been very close before.

I mention this for 3 reasons:

1. Mike McCarthy is entering the 5th year of his head coaching tenure. And in his 4 previous seasons we have won one playoff game. (So we’re supposed to believe we’re close?)
2. Jerry Jones is keeping Mike McCarthy onboard in the last year of his contract. He’s obviously a “lame duck”. How does that play in the Cowboys locker room when the players know Big Mac is already on the hot seat? If the Cowboys start the ‘24 season 1-3 will those players fight hard for their HC who has an expiring contract?
3. Anyone remember how this played out the last time this team was in this situation? It was only 5 seasons ago in Jason Garrett’s last season. His contract was expiring. Everyone knew it. Garrett was finishing his tenth season with his future on the line. They finished 9-7 and did not make the playoffs. (In Garrett’s decade long tenure as HC, the Cowboys made the playoffs only 3 times)

So forgive me if I’m skeptical about the upcoming 2024 season. NFL History says it is extremely unlikely that an NFL coach in his 5th (or more) year with the team can win a SB. Maybe Big Mac will be an historic exception. But raise your hand if you looked at Jerry or SJ’s press comments post playoff loss this year and felt confident these guys know what they are doing? Not me.

Jerry doesn’t pay HC to sit in the barn. Hopefully he lets MM and Dak play out next year and see how it goes and no SB then it’s time to dump both and start over. I can’t take much more of Jerry’s gibberish pressers.

 

[DogFace]

More history:

No NFL head coach has ever won a superbowl for two different teams.

 

[xwalker]

First line in the OP: “NFL history has made it clear: In the last 56 seasons, if an NFL head coach is going to win a Super Bowl with their current team, it needs to happen during their first 4 years with that team.”

I may have misstated later, but the first line seems pretty clear to me.

No, that's not clear.

Regardless, those are silly stats.

How many coaches had 12 wins in 3 of their first 4 seasons?

What was your answer on Andy Reid? His first season is KC was 2013. Wasn't their first SB win during his 7th season?

 

[Asklesko]

Jerry said he can work with BB

That's true. Do you believe him?

 

[Sydla]

Your statement:
Only 5 NFL head coaches in the Super Bowl era have won a Super Bowl in their fifth year or more with their current team.

What's your confusion?

If you read his post it's pretty clear what his point is. You throwing Walsh and Belichick out there just made you look silly.

 

[DogFace]

Thanks for the compliment
I do consider 63 young!
Lol

When you’re 93 you will look back and know you were right.

Look at some picture of people from the 1970’s when they were 60. They look much different than 60 somethings these days.

 

[xwalker]

NFL history has made it clear: In the last 56 seasons, if an NFL head coach is going to win a Super Bowl with their current team, it needs to happen during their first 4 years with that team. Why? Only 5 NFL head coaches in the Super Bowl era have won a Super Bowl in their fifth year or more with their current team.

These are the coaches that did that: Andy Reid, Chuck Noll, Tom Landry, Bill Cowher, and John Madden.

The bad news about that list is 4 of those 5 names last coached in the NFL over 20 years ago. Only Andy Reid is a current coach who has won a SB after 4 seasons with their current team. Kyle Shanahan could join that list if the niners win the SB in two weeks. But he’s at least taken two other teams to NFC championship games. So he’s been very close before.

I mention this for 3 reasons:

1. Mike McCarthy is entering the 5th year of his head coaching tenure. And in his 4 previous seasons we have won one playoff game. (So we’re supposed to believe we’re close?)
2. Jerry Jones is keeping Mike McCarthy onboard in the last year of his contract. He’s obviously a “lame duck”. How does that play in the Cowboys locker room when the players know Big Mac is already on the hot seat? If the Cowboys start the ‘24 season 1-3 will those players fight hard for their HC who has an expiring contract?
3. Anyone remember how this played out the last time this team was in this situation? It was only 5 seasons ago in Jason Garrett’s last season. His contract was expiring. Everyone knew it. Garrett was finishing his tenth season with his future on the line. They finished 9-7 and did not make the playoffs. (In Garrett’s decade long tenure as HC, the Cowboys made the playoffs only 3 times)

So forgive me if I’m skeptical about the upcoming 2024 season. NFL History says it is extremely unlikely that an NFL coach in his 5th (or more) year with the team can win a SB. Maybe Big Mac will be an historic exception. But raise your hand if you looked at Jerry or SJ’s press comments post playoff loss this year and felt confident these guys know what they are doing? Not me.

My favorite stat:

Super Bowl Wins:

Jerry: 3
Landry: 2