NFL History: Keeping a HC in his 5th season on last yr of his contract is not smart

Sydla

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xwalker said:
No, that's not clear.

Regardless, those are silly stats.

How many coaches had 12 wins in 3 of their first 4 seasons?

What was your answer on Andy Reid? His first season is KC was 2013. Wasn't their first SB win during his 7th season?
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Andy Reid is listed on the list of 5 coaches who won SBs after their 4th year with a particular team.

Oy.
 
EJK24

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Should have let MM go and brought in a new head coach who would also find new coordinators. This thing from top to bottom is a mess with Jerry leading the circus but he's obviously not going anywhere. Having MM coach out the final year of his contract really feels like we are wasting a year.

We obviously are going to see changes because this current squad gives no reason to believe we are finally going to get over the hump. MM coaches this year, gets fired or just not renewed, which was the circus we saw with Garrett. Jerry wouldn't openly say we were done and looking for a new head coach and had an awkward amount of time when we didn't have a coach "technically" but wouldn't say Jason was fired or not coming back until weeks later.

Should have let MM walk since that's where this appears to be going anyway. Another waste of a season trying with this group.
 
Bobhaze

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xwalker said:
No, that's not clear.

Regardless, those are silly stats.

How many coaches had 12 wins in 3 of their first 4 seasons?

What was your answer on Andy Reid? His first season is KC was 2013. Wasn't their first SB win during his 7th season?
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But I did include Andy Reid in the OP: “Only Andy Reid is a current coach who has won a SB after 4 seasons with their current team. Kyle Shanahan could join that list if the niners win the SB in two weeks.”

:thumbup:
 
john van brocklin

john van brocklin

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EJK24 said:
Should have let MM go and brought in a new head coach who would also find new coordinators. This thing from top to bottom is a mess with Jerry leading the circus but he's obviously not going anywhere. Having MM coach out the final year of his contract really feels like we are wasting a year.

We obviously are going to see changes because this current squad gives no reason to believe we are finally going to get over the hump. MM coaches this year, gets fired or just not renewed, which was the circus we saw with Garrett. Jerry wouldn't openly say we were done and looking for a new head coach and had an awkward amount of time when we didn't have a coach "technically" but wouldn't say Jason was fired or not coming back until weeks later.

Should have let MM walk since that's where this appears to be going anyway. Another waste of a season trying with this group.
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Jerry waste seasons all the time .
How else do you explain 9.5 years of Garrett?
 
fivetwos

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DogFace said:
When you’re 93 you will look back and know you were right.

Look at some picture of people from the 1970’s when they were 60. They look much different than 60 somethings these days.
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I’ve noticed that also. Why is that?
 
xwalker

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Bobhaze said:
NFL history has made it clear: In the last 56 seasons, if an NFL head coach is going to win a Super Bowl with their current team, it needs to happen during their first 4 years with that team. Why? Only 5 NFL head coaches in the Super Bowl era have won a Super Bowl in their fifth year or more with their current team.

These are the coaches that did that: Andy Reid, Chuck Noll, Tom Landry, Bill Cowher, and John Madden.

The bad news about that list is 4 of those 5 names last coached in the NFL over 20 years ago. Only Andy Reid is a current coach who has won a SB after 4 seasons with their current team. Kyle Shanahan could join that list if the niners win the SB in two weeks. But he’s at least taken two other teams to NFC championship games. So he’s been very close before.

I mention this for 3 reasons:
  1. Mike McCarthy is entering the 5th year of his head coaching tenure. And in his 4 previous seasons we have won one playoff game. (So we’re supposed to believe we’re close?)
  2. Jerry Jones is keeping Mike McCarthy onboard in the last year of his contract. He’s obviously a “lame duck”. How does that play in the Cowboys locker room when the players know Big Mac is already on the hot seat? If the Cowboys start the ‘24 season 1-3 will those players fight hard for their HC who has an expiring contract?
  3. Anyone remember how this played out the last time this team was in this situation? It was only 5 seasons ago in Jason Garrett’s last season. His contract was expiring. Everyone knew it. Garrett was finishing his tenth season with his future on the line. They finished 9-7 and did not make the playoffs. (In Garrett’s decade long tenure as HC, the Cowboys made the playoffs only 3 times)
So forgive me if I’m skeptical about the upcoming 2024 season. NFL History says it is extremely unlikely that an NFL coach in his 5th (or more) year with the team can win a SB. Maybe Big Mac will be an historic exception. But raise your hand if you looked at Jerry or SJ’s press comments post playoff loss this year and felt confident these guys know what they are doing? Not me.
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There are arguments to made for dumping McCarthy, but your method of using stats is not one of them.

The majority of auto accidents happen within 5 miles of the drivers home.
- Are you going to start parking your car 5 miles away and walking to it when you need go more than 5 miles?

“There are three kinds of lies: Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics” — has been attributed to Mark Twain, who himself attributed it to British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli

No HC has won the SB with 2 differernt teams.

Does that mean the Cowboys should not consider Belichick next year if McCarthy fails to win a playoff game?

Multiple coaches have made it to the SB with more than 1 team, they just didn't win both both teams.
- At this I would settle for making to the SB for the 2024 season.

No team had won a SB after losing the first 2 games of the season until the Cowboys did it for the 93 season.
 
Bobhaze

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xwalker said:
There are arguments to made for dumping McCarthy, but your method of using stats is not one of them.

The majority of auto accidents happen within 5 miles of the drivers home.
- Are you going to start parking your car 5 miles away and walking to it when you need go more than 5 miles?

“There are three kinds of lies: Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics” — has been attributed to Mark Twain, who himself attributed it to British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli

No HC has won the SB with 2 differernt teams.

Does that mean the Cowboys should not consider Belichick next year if McCarthy fails to win a playoff game?

Multiple coaches have made it to the SB with more than 1 team, they just didn't win both both teams.
- At this I would settle for making to the SB for the 2024 season.

No team had won a SB after losing the first 2 games of the season until the Cowboys did it for the 93 season.
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I don’t disagree that stats don’t always tell the whole story. But you are using stats above that I’m not using. Again, if you disagree that’s fine.
 
Chasing6

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Bobhaze said:
NFL history has made it clear: In the last 56 seasons, if an NFL head coach is going to win a Super Bowl with their current team, it needs to happen during their first 4 years with that team. Why? Only 5 NFL head coaches in the Super Bowl era have won a Super Bowl in their fifth year or more with their current team.

These are the coaches that did that: Andy Reid, Chuck Noll, Tom Landry, Bill Cowher, and John Madden.

The bad news about that list is 4 of those 5 names last coached in the NFL over 20 years ago. Only Andy Reid is a current coach who has won a SB after 4 seasons with their current team. Kyle Shanahan could join that list if the niners win the SB in two weeks. But he’s at least taken two other teams to NFC championship games. So he’s been very close before.

I mention this for 3 reasons:
  1. Mike McCarthy is entering the 5th year of his head coaching tenure. And in his 4 previous seasons we have won one playoff game. (So we’re supposed to believe we’re close?)
  2. Jerry Jones is keeping Mike McCarthy onboard in the last year of his contract. He’s obviously a “lame duck”. How does that play in the Cowboys locker room when the players know Big Mac is already on the hot seat? If the Cowboys start the ‘24 season 1-3 will those players fight hard for their HC who has an expiring contract?
  3. Anyone remember how this played out the last time this team was in this situation? It was only 5 seasons ago in Jason Garrett’s last season. His contract was expiring. Everyone knew it. Garrett was finishing his tenth season with his future on the line. They finished 9-7 and did not make the playoffs. (In Garrett’s decade long tenure as HC, the Cowboys made the playoffs only 3 times)
So forgive me if I’m skeptical about the upcoming 2024 season. NFL History says it is extremely unlikely that an NFL coach in his 5th (or more) year with the team can win a SB. Maybe Big Mac will be an historic exception. But raise your hand if you looked at Jerry or SJ’s press comments post playoff loss this year and felt confident these guys know what they are doing? Not me.
Click to expand...
We are not even close to a SB team. Hanging around the rim my ---, we can't get our feet off the ground.

If anything we are getting 3 second violations, because once we get to the playoffs, we have no idea what we are doing.
 
nightrain

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Bobhaze said:
NFL history has made it clear: In the last 56 seasons, if an NFL head coach is going to win a Super Bowl with their current team, it needs to happen during their first 4 years with that team. Why? Only 5 NFL head coaches in the Super Bowl era have won a Super Bowl in their fifth year or more with their current team.

These are the coaches that did that: Andy Reid, Chuck Noll, Tom Landry, Bill Cowher, and John Madden.

The bad news about that list is 4 of those 5 names last coached in the NFL over 20 years ago. Only Andy Reid is a current coach who has won a SB after 4 seasons with their current team. Kyle Shanahan could join that list if the niners win the SB in two weeks. But he’s at least taken two other teams to NFC championship games. So he’s been very close before.

I mention this for 3 reasons:
  1. Mike McCarthy is entering the 5th year of his head coaching tenure. And in his 4 previous seasons we have won one playoff game. (So we’re supposed to believe we’re close?)
  2. Jerry Jones is keeping Mike McCarthy onboard in the last year of his contract. He’s obviously a “lame duck”. How does that play in the Cowboys locker room when the players know Big Mac is already on the hot seat? If the Cowboys start the ‘24 season 1-3 will those players fight hard for their HC who has an expiring contract?
  3. Anyone remember how this played out the last time this team was in this situation? It was only 5 seasons ago in Jason Garrett’s last season. His contract was expiring. Everyone knew it. Garrett was finishing his tenth season with his future on the line. They finished 9-7 and did not make the playoffs. (In Garrett’s decade long tenure as HC, the Cowboys made the playoffs only 3 times)
So forgive me if I’m skeptical about the upcoming 2024 season. NFL History says it is extremely unlikely that an NFL coach in his 5th (or more) year with the team can win a SB. Maybe Big Mac will be an historic exception. But raise your hand if you looked at Jerry or SJ’s press comments post playoff loss this year and felt confident these guys know what they are doing? Not me.
Click to expand...
It's a recipe for failure. They will harken back to a 500 season or worse. Imagine if Quinn leaves and takes an assistant or 3. How will Jerry replace them with quality coaches?
 
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