Twitter: NFL passing leaders through week 7 (top 5 may surprise some)

[percyhoward]

@percyhoward already exposed QBR and its fault as a measuring tool

No, I never did any such thing. But here's what I did say (last summer) about QBR vs traditional passer rating:

Both metrics correlate strongly to wins, so they're both good. Neither is perfect.

Beneficiaries of Total QBR
Prescott, Roethlisberger, Wentz

Beneficiaries of Traditional Passer Rating
Wilson, Cousins, Smith

Cliff's Notes on why:
The best thing about Total QBR is also the worst thing: it's based on EPA. That means it takes game situation into account, but it also treats any non-pass as a designed QB run. The "game situation" aspect helps mobile QB like Wentz (great on 3rd and long), Prescott (great late in close games), and Ben, who's a little of both.

None of that shows in traditional passer rating, which gives a boost to Garbage Time Cousins and the ever-conservative Smith. On the other hand, Total QBR blames all sacks on the QB, which is what hurt Dak in 2018, and what hurts Wilson for all three years.

According to PFF, 80% of all sacks are the fault of someone other than the QB. An improvement to these two metrics would be a hybrid metric that's EPA-based but that only counts sacks that are the fault of the QB.

__________________________________________________________________

An interesting new(ish) stat is CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expected), which takes the depth of the target into consideration to arrive at a league-average expected completion percentage for throws of that average distance. You can then rank QB according to their own completion percentage vs. that league average. This doesn't include TD-INT however.

To that end, there is a Seattle guy who has combined EPA with CPOE...

 

[CCBoy]

No, I never did any such thing. But here's what I did say (last summer) about QBR vs traditional passer rating:

Both metrics correlate strongly to wins, so they're both good. Neither is perfect.

Beneficiaries of Total QBR
Prescott, Roethlisberger, Wentz

Beneficiaries of Traditional Passer Rating
Wilson, Cousins, Smith

Cliff's Notes on why:
The best thing about Total QBR is also the worst thing: it's based on EPA. That means it takes game situation into account, but it also treats any non-pass as a designed QB run. The "game situation" aspect helps mobile QB like Wentz (great on 3rd and long), Prescott (great late in close games), and Ben, who's a little of both.

None of that shows in traditional passer rating, which gives a boost to Garbage Time Cousins and the ever-conservative Smith. On the other hand, Total QBR blames all sacks on the QB, which is what hurt Dak in 2018, and what hurts Wilson for all three years.

According to PFF, 80% of all sacks are the fault of someone other than the QB. An improvement to these two metrics would be a hybrid metric that's EPA-based but that only counts sacks that are the fault of the QB.

__________________________________________________________________

An interesting new(ish) stat is CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expected), which takes the depth of the target into consideration to arrive at a league-average expected completion percentage for throws of that average distance. You can then rank QB according to their own completion percentage vs. that league average. This doesn't include TD-INT however.

To that end, there is a Seattle guy who has combined EPA with CPOE...

Still think they are needing to pay the man, and end outside drama.

 

[WillieBeamen]

No, I never did any such thing. But here's what I did say (last summer) about QBR vs traditional passer rating:

Both metrics correlate strongly to wins, so they're both good. Neither is perfect.

Beneficiaries of Total QBR
Prescott, Roethlisberger, Wentz

Beneficiaries of Traditional Passer Rating
Wilson, Cousins, Smith

Cliff's Notes on why:
The best thing about Total QBR is also the worst thing: it's based on EPA. That means it takes game situation into account, but it also treats any non-pass as a designed QB run. The "game situation" aspect helps mobile QB like Wentz (great on 3rd and long), Prescott (great late in close games), and Ben, who's a little of both.

None of that shows in traditional passer rating, which gives a boost to Garbage Time Cousins and the ever-conservative Smith. On the other hand, Total QBR blames all sacks on the QB, which is what hurt Dak in 2018, and what hurts Wilson for all three years.

According to PFF, 80% of all sacks are the fault of someone other than the QB. An improvement to these two metrics would be a hybrid metric that's EPA-based but that only counts sacks that are the fault of the QB.

__________________________________________________________________

An interesting new(ish) stat is CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expected), which takes the depth of the target into consideration to arrive at a league-average expected completion percentage for throws of that average distance. You can then rank QB according to their own completion percentage vs. that league average. This doesn't include TD-INT however.

To that end, there is a Seattle guy who has combined EPA with CPOE...

So this wasnt you? Was it an imposter?

It's disappointing how people let themselves become indoctrinated by commercial entities trying to sell their product. The NFL came up with passer rating, and anybody can figure it with an online calculator. It has one of the highest correlations to wins of any individual stat. ESPN and PFF have their own rating/grading systems which they keep secret, so you can't figure it yourself. You have to access their content to find it, and then basically take their word for it.

In 2018, teams whose QB had a 100+ passer rating were 152-62-1.

That's because, as you said, teams win games. The opposing QB has a passer rating too, and your defense plays a big part in that. There are two QB in every game, and each QB's rating counts equally. Sometimes both QB have a 100+ rating. Sometimes neither does. But 70% of the time you have a 100+ passer rating, your team wins. You can talk about sportscasters and throw around terms like "antiquated," but it doesn't change that fact.


That's not a flaw of passer rating, it's your mistake for not adjusting for era. QBR, had it been around before 2006, would show the same kind of disparity between eras that any other passing stat does. Are you under the impression that when Staubach led the NFL in passer rating in 1978 completing 56% of his passes with 25 td and 16 int, that would have amounted to anything near the QBR that we see today?

Think.

ESPN wants to sell you on their product, and you're falling for it completely. Have you ever tried to look up a QB's career QBR? You can't. ESPN doesn't even bother to list it. Interested in knowing the QBR allowed by a certain defense over the course of the season? Good luck. The stat doesn't exist. And yet, you can look up defensive passer rating and see that 75% of the time a defense holds the opposing QB below 80, that team wins.

And if you really prefer QBR over passer rating, explain this:

Traditional passer rating, 2016-18
1 Brees 106.4
2 Ryan 105.7
3 Brady 103.5
4 Rodgers 100.3
5 Wilson 98.7
6 Luck 97.5
7 Cousins 97.0
8 Rivers 96.1
9 Prescott 95.9
10 Smith 95.3

ESPN's Total QBR (average of each season, 2016-18)
1 Brady 73.5
2 Ryan 71.5
3 Brees 70.0
4 Luck 68.8
5 Prescott 68.4
6 Rodgers 66.4
7 Rthlsbrgr 66.3
8 Rivers 63.3
9 Wentz 63.2
10 Wilson 62.1

The "modern" metric puts Dak four places ahead of the "antiquated" metric.

 

[percyhoward]

So this wasnt you? Was it an imposter?

Obviously it was me. What is wasn't was me "exposing QBR as a flawed measuring tool," as you're obviously trying to spin it into.

You're quoting a response to a poster who claimed traditional passer rating was outdated, and that QBR was a better metric. You see a lot of this lately, and it's nothing more than the result of successful marketing. ESPN's proprietary stat QBR is no "better" or "worse" than traditional passer rating. The difference lies in what you're interested in measuring, as I explained at length. Passer rating is passing only, and it isn't clutch-weighted, but it doesn't fault QB for sacks. QBR includes runs, and is clutch-weighted, but makes no distinction between a QB run and a sack.

Here's how Prescott ranks in all three of the metrics I mentioned. Take your pick, because as I said, all are good, none is perfect.

2nd in CPOE + EPA
8th in passer rating
1st in Total QBR

Taking out Brees, who doesn't have enough attempts to qualify, Dak is one of only six QB who are among the Top 10 in all three metrics. Here's those players' average ranks:

Wilson 3rd
Mahomes 4th
Prescott 4th
Watson 5th
Garoppolo 8th
Stafford 7th

I'm old school, so I tend to defend passer rating, because there aren't many of us left to defend it, and because it strongly correlates to wins. It just has the unfortunate disadvantage of being free to the public (not associated with any commercial entity), so everyone knows exactly what goes into it and anyone can figure it. That doesn't make QBR or other similar metrics any less valid -- even when those metrics say Dak is very good.

 

[WillieBeamen]

Obviously it was me. What is wasn't was me "exposing QBR as a flawed measuring tool," as you're obviously trying to spin it into.

You're quoting a response to a poster who claimed traditional passer rating was outdated, and that QBR was a better metric. You see a lot of this lately, and it's nothing more than the result of successful marketing. ESPN's proprietary stat QBR is no "better" or "worse" than traditional passer rating. The difference lies in what you're interested in measuring, as I explained at length. Passer rating is passing only, and it isn't clutch-weighted, but it doesn't fault QB for sacks. QBR includes runs, and is clutch-weighted, but makes no distinction between a QB run and a sack.

Here's how Prescott ranks in all three of the metrics I mentioned. Take your pick, because as I said, all are good, none is perfect.

2nd in CPOE + EPA
8th in passer rating
1st in Total QBR

Taking out Brees, who doesn't have enough attempts to qualify, Dak is one of only six QB who are among the Top 10 in all three metrics. Here's those players' average ranks:

Wilson 3rd
Mahomes 4th
Prescott 4th
Watson 5th
Garoppolo 8th
Stafford 7th

I'm old school, so I tend to defend passer rating, because there aren't many of us left to defend it, and because it strongly correlates to wins. It just has the unfortunate disadvantage of being free to the public (not associated with any commercial entity), so everyone knows exactly what goes into it and anyone can figure it. That doesn't make QBR or other similar metrics any less valid -- even when those metrics say Dak is very good.

Your backpedal is better than Deion’s was

 

[percyhoward]

Your backpedal is better than Deion’s was

Backpedal from what exactly, Willie?

 

[CowboyRoy]

No, I never did any such thing. But here's what I did say (last summer) about QBR vs traditional passer rating:

Both metrics correlate strongly to wins, so they're both good. Neither is perfect.

Beneficiaries of Total QBR
Prescott, Roethlisberger, Wentz

Beneficiaries of Traditional Passer Rating
Wilson, Cousins, Smith

Cliff's Notes on why:
The best thing about Total QBR is also the worst thing: it's based on EPA. That means it takes game situation into account, but it also treats any non-pass as a designed QB run. The "game situation" aspect helps mobile QB like Wentz (great on 3rd and long), Prescott (great late in close games), and Ben, who's a little of both.

None of that shows in traditional passer rating, which gives a boost to Garbage Time Cousins and the ever-conservative Smith. On the other hand, Total QBR blames all sacks on the QB, which is what hurt Dak in 2018, and what hurts Wilson for all three years.

According to PFF, 80% of all sacks are the fault of someone other than the QB. An improvement to these two metrics would be a hybrid metric that's EPA-based but that only counts sacks that are the fault of the QB.

__________________________________________________________________

An interesting new(ish) stat is CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expected), which takes the depth of the target into consideration to arrive at a league-average expected completion percentage for throws of that average distance. You can then rank QB according to their own completion percentage vs. that league average. This doesn't include TD-INT however.

To that end, there is a Seattle guy who has combined EPA with CPOE...

LOL...…..gotta love how now that Dak is leading the stat categories, all of a sudden, stats don't count.

 

[WillieBeamen]

Backpedal from what exactly, Willie?

The orginal debate between you and @Aerolithe_Lion was he thought QBR was a “better” metric to use when evaluating QB play than traditional passer rating. His reasoning is that players like Dak and Romo are embedded in the top 10 of all time and it doesnt value other important things a QB does.

Your rebuttal was exactly what I quoted in this thread.

ESPN wants to sell you on their product, and you're falling for it completely. Have you ever tried to look up a QB's career QBR? You can't. ESPN doesn't even bother to list it. Interested in knowing the QBR allowed by a certain defense over the course of the season? Good luck. The stat doesn't exist. And yet, you can look up defensive passer rating and see that 75% of the time a defense holds the opposing QB below 80, that team wins.

And if you really prefer QBR over passer rating, explain this:

Traditional passer rating, 2016-18
1 Brees 106.4
2 Ryan 105.7
3 Brady 103.5
4 Rodgers 100.3
5 Wilson 98.7
6 Luck 97.5
7 Cousins 97.0
8 Rivers 96.1
9 Prescott 95.9
10 Smith 95.3

ESPN's Total QBR (average of each season, 2016-18)
1 Brady 73.5
2 Ryan 71.5
3 Brees 70.0
4 Luck 68.8
5 Prescott 68.4
6 Rodgers 66.4
7 Rthlsbrgr 66.3
8 Rivers 63.3
9 Wentz 63.2
10 Wilson 62.1

The "modern" metric puts Dak four places ahead of the "antiquated" metric.

The “tone” of your posts, suggest you prefer passer rating and you do a good job expressing why. What your posts in that thread “dont suggest”, they are of equal-footing.

If your memory is foggy, here is the link to the thread:
https://cowboyszone.com/threads/bar...even-reached-alex-smiths-level.436808/page-12

Btw, you also replied to one of my posts with this:

According to QBR (which your "likes" in this thread indicate that you believe in), Dak has TWO top 5 seasons. He ranked 3rd in 2016, and 4th in 2017.

No where in that thread, did you show or suggest BOTH metrics strongly correlated to wins....

 

[percyhoward]

LOL...…..gotta love how now that Dak is leading the stat categories, all of a sudden, stats don't count.

When comparing passer rating and total QBR, 8 of the 10 names in the Top 10 are the same anyway. (This is not something ESPN wants us to know, by the way.)

Traditional passer rating, 2016-19
1 Mahomes 112.1
2 Brees 106.0
3 Ryan 104.7
4 Watson 103.8
5 Brady 102.1
6 Rodgers 101.4
7 Wilson 101.1
8 Cousins 99.0
9 Prescott 96.9
10 Stafford 95.5
Rthlsbrgr 94.0
Wentz 92.7

ESPN's Total QBR (average of each season, 2016-19)
1 Mahomes 79.2
2 Prescott 71.9
3 Brees 70.0
4 Brady 68.6
5 Wilson 67.0
6 Rthlsbrgr 66.3
7 Ryan 66.2
8 Wentz 65.5
9 Rodgers 64.9
10 Watson 64.7
Stafford 60.6
Cousins 57.1

Dak ranks so high in QBR because he's had good pass pro for the most part, he's very good running in the red zone, and because he's been so good in clutch situations. He's still Top 10 by either metric, over a very large sample of games.

 

[CowboyRoy]

When comparing passer rating and total QBR, 8 of the 10 names in the Top 10 are the same anyway. (This is not something ESPN wants us to know, by the way.)

Traditional passer rating, 2016-19
1 Mahomes 112.1
2 Brees 106.0
3 Ryan 104.7
4 Watson 103.8
5 Brady 102.1
6 Rodgers 101.4
7 Wilson 101.1
8 Cousins 99.0
9 Prescott 96.9
10 Stafford 95.5
Rthlsbrgr 94.0
Wentz 92.7

ESPN's Total QBR (average of each season, 2016-19)
1 Mahomes 79.2
2 Prescott 71.9
3 Brees 70.0
4 Brady 68.6
5 Wilson 67.0
6 Rthlsbrgr 66.3
7 Ryan 66.2
8 Wentz 65.5
9 Rodgers 64.9
10 Watson 64.7
Stafford 60.6
Cousins 57.1

Dak ranks so high in QBR because he's had good pass pro for the most part, he's very good running in the red zone, and because he's been so good in clutch situations. He's still Top 10 by either metric, over a very large sample of games.

Dak passes any test, whether its eye test, win test, QBR, whatever you want. And now he is leading top 5 in the passing stat categories.

There is no more conversation about Dak. The trolls are left to babble and look silly.

 

[percyhoward]

No where in that thread, did you show or suggest BOTH metrics strongly correlated to wins....

I'd already said it a month earlier. You just missed it.

https://cowboyszone.com/threads/who...yer-on-the-cowboys.435344/page-4#post-9267718

 

[85Cowboy85]

None of that shows in traditional passer rating, which gives a boost to Garbage Time Cousins and the ever-conservative Smith. On the other hand, Total QBR blames all sacks on the QB, which is what hurt Dak in 2018, and what hurts Wilson for all three years.

There's decent evidence that sacks are a QB driven stat rather than an offensive line driven stat. It's one of the most consistent stats when QBs change teams, as much so as the components of passer rating.

I watched a lot of the all-22 last year and while PFF had 19 or so sacks as the Daks fault, I would say the amount of potentially avoidable sacks was higher than that. I don't know if I would put too much stock into that 80% PFF number.

 

[CowboyRoy]

There's decent evidence that sacks are a QB driven stat rather than an offensive line driven stat. It's one of the most consistent stats when QBs change teams, as much so as the components of passer rating.

I watched a lot of the all-22 last year and while PFF had 19 or so sacks as the Daks fault, I would say the amount of potentially avoidable sacks was higher than that. I don't know if I would put too much stock into that 80% PFF number.

Decent evidence? Not good evidence?

All you have to do is look at Dak's stats and the Oline.

With Dak as the one constant and the Oline changing in quality over the last 4 years it shows a direct correlation to Oline play and sacks.

 

[CowboyRoy]

There's decent evidence that sacks are a QB driven stat rather than an offensive line driven stat. It's one of the most consistent stats when QBs change teams, as much so as the components of passer rating.

I watched a lot of the all-22 last year and while PFF had 19 or so sacks as the Daks fault, I would say the amount of potentially avoidable sacks was higher than that. I don't know if I would put too much stock into that 80% PFF number.

Did you also count the # of sacks that Dak avoided because of his ability to get out of trouble? Probably not since your agenda is obvious.

 

[percyhoward]

There's decent evidence that sacks are a QB driven stat rather than an offensive line driven stat. It's one of the most consistent stats when QBs change teams, as much so as the components of passer rating.

I watched a lot of the all-22 last year and while PFF had 19 or so sacks as the Daks fault, I would say the amount of potentially avoidable sacks was higher than that. I don't know if I would put too much stock into that 80% PFF number.

80% is just one number, but it would be hard to argue that the QB's share of the blame went any higher than 50%, which by itself says that it's probably not a good idea to blame every sack on the QB -- just as passer rating not blaming any sack on the QB is a bad idea.

Either way, there isn't a lot of movement for most of the names when comparing the rankings according to the two metrics.

 

[CowboyRoy]

80% is just one number, but it would be hard to argue that the QB's share of the blame went any higher than 50%, which by itself says that it's probably not a good idea to blame every sack on the QB -- just as passer rating not blaming any sack on the QB is a bad idea.

Either way, there isn't a lot of movement for most of the names when comparing the rankings according to the two metrics.

Dak was sacked only 28 times in 2016, 32 times in 2017 and some 60 times in 2018.

Are we to believe that Dak has gotten worse at getting sacked? LOL

ah......................NO!!! Its a direct correlation to the quality of the Oline play. You can pretty much follow Zeke's production in the same manner if you look into the statistics.

 

[85Cowboy85]

Decent evidence? Not good evidence?

All you have to do is look at Dak's stats and the Oline.

With Dak as the one constant and the Oline changing in quality over the last 4 years it shows a direct correlation to Oline play and sacks.

https://www.thebiglead.com/2018/10/19/sacks-are-a-quarterback-stat/

It's been known in the analytics community for a long time.

 

[percyhoward]

https://www.thebiglead.com/2018/10/19/sacks-are-a-quarterback-stat/

Right, then he said "next week, I’m going to try to come up with the answer to just how much of the sack stats belong to the QB, and compare it to the other rate stats." And the next week he concluded, "sack rate is at least 45% the responsibility of the quarterback, and about 55% everything else."

"At least 45%" is a long way from 100%.

 

[Romo_To_Dez]

LOL...…..gotta love how now that Dak is leading the stat categories, all of a sudden, stats don't count.

I find it hard to believe that the Anti-Dak crowd would work so hard to discredit these same types of stats if QB's that they favored or believed to be great/elite had them. There would be no taking away stats that were put up against below average to bad defenses. And they wouldn't prevented themselves from getting excited about any big plays or amazing throws that their favorite QB put up against below average defenses or secondaries. ey

They wouldn't cheery pick the plays that their dream QB made against good defenses as the only aspect of that QB's career and game that made him worthy of being called elite or considered a true franchise QB. And completely forgo any plays or big games their dream QB made against bad or average defenses.

 

[85Cowboy85]

Right, then he said "next week, I’m going to try to come up with the answer to just how much of the sack stats belong to the QB, and compare it to the other rate stats." And the next week he concluded, "sack rate is at least 45% the responsibility of the quarterback, and about 55% everything else."

"At least 45%" is a long way from 100%.

You say that like that's low, that's higher than every single component in the passer rating equation where 100% is put on the QB.

Completion Percentage: 44%
Interception Rate: 40%
Yards Per Attempt: 38%
Touchdown Rate: 34%