Odds Maker: Dallas is going to get Slaughtered

[SnakeBite]

The games usually end up having nothing to do with Dak.

We keep winning even with the few plays he offers us.

He’s got a lot of flaws but our run game and defense usually overcome and sometimes he steps up and makes plays.

I would have to disagree. Imo we are not in the position we are in to play for a NFCG without Prescott of course he's flawed but he's clutch and you can't teach that. He's not some game manager that the team wins despite, he's a game changer and he will probably display that Saturday night history says so.

 

[Diehardblues]

Was that the same odds maker who picked the Rams over the Cowboys in 1975 playoff clash at the Coliseum when the Boys man handled the Rams 44-14?! After all, that WAS the last time they met in the playoffs until now.

Fact check:

The Cowboys have met the Rams in playoffs several times since then.

1976, 1978, 1980, 1983 and 1985 seasons. And for the record that 1975 result was 37-7.

Cowboys are 4-4 lifetime against Rams in playoffs. Dallas is 2-1 at the Coliseum.

 

[Blake]

This Slaughter?

What are those?!

 

[Diehardblues]

Like Dallas did 2 years ago, right?!

Usually was the key word there.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

I'm not disagreeing with your premise, but as a degenerate who follows such things the line is on average more accurate than any of the blowhards who predict these games for any of the outlets I've seen.

That said, I've won 6 of my last 7 betting the Boys ATS and I think it seems high (as if that actually means anything).

If you look at the aggregate data of betting lines which there are reams of, it is simply not accurate. Just because there are no accurate predictors doesn't make it a good one. At the end of the day, the variance between outcomes and spread is a TD or more 60% of the time. Flipping a coin is a better determinant.

I do not like betting on contests like horse racing and sports. I like things I have some measure of control. I love poker for example.

 

[davidariust24]

I don’t get how they are coming up with the Rams being favored by 7.

The matchups favor us enough that even if you really liked the Rams I would think it would be no more then 3.5.

If we show up and run all over them then they don’t have a very good chance of beating us.

Also, how can they trust Goff against our pass rush?

Last year they had quick routes for quick passes so that the pass rush would be neutralized. If there was nothing there after checking the check down to Gurley hed throw it away. I remember they timed his release and it was always 2 point something seconds and almost never over three. Gurley caught alot of passes in that game. If coach Richard can somehow get some kind of handle on that we would benefit greatly

 

[ElGatoGrande]

I just spoke to an odds maker and he advised me "Dallas is getting slaughtered." I'm trying to wonder "what do these people know that we don't know?"

"The Rams have yet to win a postseason game under coach Sean McVay's leadership, but based on the opening betting lines from Las Vegas that could be about to change. The opening betting line had the gave the Rams a seven-point spread with an over/under of 49 points, while SportsLine had the home team coming away with a 30-21 win."

Yeah, I don't trust anybody involved in the gambling business. I'll wait to hear it from Cynthia Frelund,,,

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

You're entirely right about all that; and if we lose, we'll undoubtedly look back at that checklist and be able to check 4 or 5 of those items as why we lost.

I do think the last point in your previous post about the stingy defense is one that shouldn't be buried. Goff has cooled off, and defense tends to take more precedence in the postseason than even the regular season. And while the Rams create turnovers, they're poor against the run -- our biggest strength offensively.

There's one blueprint for us to win this game. Dominate the ground game, control time of possession, and limit the Rams' scoring opportunities as best we can. Fail to do any of those three things, and it's difficult to imagine how we survive.

Stopping the Rams run and making Jared 4.8 Goff's dropbacks predictable is the key to the game for me.

 

[blueblood70]

its why we play the game, so much unpredictable bounces, refs, and slips can really change game..Alabama had no idea theyd get kicked in the teeth, stuff snowballs like it did in the Colts game with us..the colts are not 23-0 better then us , we just had so many odd things happen and it went down hill from there..

its the playoffs and we have the momentum going 8-1 beating the eagles twice and now Seatle has us coming hard..I like our chances and if we do lose it wont be a slaughter LOL

That colts game really was blessing in disguise we saw if we dont come out and play hard and give 150% how things can go..that game is why most of our starters played all 4 in the giants game, reminds us to laly hard no matter the situation.. good lessons

 

[CouchCoach]

Is this the same oddsmaker that set the odds for the WC round or the CFP Champs game?

 

[GhostOfPelluer]

If you look at the aggregate data of betting lines which there are reams of, it is simply not accurate. Just because there are no accurate predictors doesn't make it a good one. At the end of the day, the variance between outcomes and spread is a TD or more 60% of the time. Flipping a coin is a better determinant.

I do not like betting on contests like horse racing and sports. I like things I have some measure of control. I love poker for example.

Given all the variables at play, if the reasonable accuracy rate is 40% (using your numbers, which I don't doubt even though you didn't source them), that seems pretty remarkable.

 

[madcow74]

what were the odds we'd shut down the saints?

 

[TheSport78]

On a neutral field the Rams would be favored by 3.5-4 points. Offsmakers give them that extra 3-3.5 points for the home field advantage. We know Cowboy nation will occupy at the least half that stadium. So give me 7 points all day, because it won't be much of a home field advantage for the Rams. That's what the odds makers aren't considering. Pretty sure we'll cover the spread, like our chances to win outright.

The odds makers consider everything. They're that good.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

I just spoke to an odds maker and he advised me "Dallas is getting slaughtered." I'm trying to wonder "what do these people know that we don't know?"

"The Rams have yet to win a postseason game under coach Sean McVay's leadership, but based on the opening betting lines from Las Vegas that could be about to change. The opening betting line had the gave the Rams a seven-point spread with an over/under of 49 points, while SportsLine had the home team coming away with a 30-21 win."

they are going on stats. we have a 112 defensive passer rating against play action plays, Rams run 35% play actions offensively.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

"Oddsmakers" have the spread at 7
Though that is fairly high for an NFL game, it's not a slaughter

home team automatically gets 3 points. so in essence they think Rams are 4 points better than cowboys. if the game was in dallas, the odds would be even.

 

[Jinxx13x]

I just spoke to an odds maker and he advised me "Dallas is getting slaughtered." I'm trying to wonder "what do these people know that we don't know?"

"The Rams have yet to win a postseason game under coach Sean McVay's leadership, but based on the opening betting lines from Las Vegas that could be about to change. The opening betting line had the gave the Rams a seven-point spread with an over/under of 49 points, while SportsLine had the home team coming away with a 30-21 win."

Thats cool arent we suppossed to be the home team as far as fan support goes ?

 

[Romo_To_Dez]

How did he feel about the Rams when they played the Bears and Eagles a few weeks ago?

How did they feel about the Saints when we played them?

 

[SlammedZero]

The home teams were favored last week and 3 of 4 lost. Calculating odds is based on everything continuing as it has been.

There is a lot that can happen in games regardless of the psychic predictions. For example, what happens if Goff gets injured on the first play? Or Gurley re-injuries his knee?

Right now, I can see the Cowboys losing or winning, but as a fan, I really am not stressed about it. I am enjoying the journey and will do so until it stops regardless of what everyone says.

This is me, and, it's kind of odd. I mean, don't get me wrong, I am super pumped and I want our Boys to win more than ever, but I'm not feeling overly stressed about it like I normally do. I'm sure over the years my expectation levels have been lowered by our lack of success, but at the same time. I've always held my favorite teams to a high standard. Something just feels different this year. I just hope it's a good different.

Make no mistake about it though, I will be PUMPED if we win.

 

[PAPPYDOG]

As long as our Defense and Zeke keep the juice flowing and Dak does his Dak thing (running the ball and not turning it over) we just might surprise the world....

 

[Pants]

Odds are, Pantsy doesn't care about the line....

....I predicted Dallas 23-17 last week I didn't know Goodell was going to be there, he threw a few points at Seattle), on Saturday, Dallas in a tight one, 27-24