Of Crystal Balls and Tea Leaves Part III

[dallasdave]

I think I could make an equally convincing argument that the 90's Cowboys win zero titles without Emmitt.

Well said my friend

 

[jday]

Now we have all this talent behind him?

Before the draft I thought we already had a 1,500 yard back on the roster behind our line, but we had to have a transcendent back in the draft @ 4.

As starters, they don't have my confidence. As backups who can work cleanup in his wake, I really like the depth the Cowboys have.

 

[Stash]

I think you and I our having two different conversations. You want to look at his yards over the course of a season to measure against the investment the Cowboys undertook to draft him fourth overall. My contention is there are better stats to look at, such as YPC and YAC. The trouble with yards over the course of a season compared to his predecessors are three fold: 1. The level of talent he will be facing will be different; some easier than what Murray and McFadden faced and some will be more difficult. 2. He could get injured; doesn't necessarily mean the Cowboys were stupid for drafting him...injuries happen. 3. Lastly and quite possibly most important, you have to consider who he has behind him as compared to who McFadden and Murray had behind them. If the Cowboys are wise, they won't run him in the ground as they did Murray, so he will have something left should the Cowboys find themselves in the playoffs. And given who is on the depth chart behind him, as opposed to what was behind Murray in 2014 and McFadden last season, they should see the ball on a consistent basis, as well. Therefore, yards over the course of a whole season can be very misleading, whereas yards per carry and yards after contact over the course of a season do a much better job of measuring his ability as a back.

I'm not looking for Murray's 1,800 yards. I'm looking for better than the 1,100 McFadden gave them last year after a late start.

If he's under 1,200 or 1,300 that should be classified as a disappointment based on the investment. People can try to tell themselves whatever they want otherwise, but that's the truth of it.

 

[boysfanindc]

As starters, they don't have my confidence. As backups who can work cleanup in his wake, I really like the depth the Cowboys have.

How many yards do you think a McFadden/Morris backfield would have had this year behind our line if we had not drafted Zeke?

 

[Alohawg1]

How many yards do you think a McFadden/Morris backfield would have had this year behind our line if we had not drafted Zeke?

Plenty enough to justify not taking a rb @4. There were much better values at the position in later rds.. Time will tell.

 

[DogFace]

This thread is confusing. If we win the SuperBowl this year and Zeke plays all 16 games and rushes for 1200 yards do we all have to acknowledge that the team blew their 1st round pick because his stats do not beat Murrays career best?

In unison once a day for a time period directly proportional to the amount each member lowered his or her expectations.

This behavior WILL NOT be tolerated.

 

[jday]

I'm not looking for Murray's 1,800 yards. I'm looking for better than the 1,100 McFadden gave them last year after a late start.

If he's under 1,200 or 1,300 that should be classified as a disappointment based on the investment. People can try to tell themselves whatever they want otherwise, but that's the truth of it.

In the previous response, I elaborated as far as I think I can go in terms of explaining why yards over the course of the season would be the wrong stat to look at...but if that is your measuring stick for success, by all means use it. I can't break it down any further than what I already have over the course of this thread.

 

[jday]

How many yards do you think a McFadden/Morris backfield would have had this year behind our line if we had not drafted Zeke?

Very tough to answer. It has been awhile since Morris was an effective running back. Granted, there are extenuating circumstances behind his decline - not getting enough touches and being on an overall terrible team - but as a backup, the Cowboys could have done alot worse. McFadden is not very good at running in a zone blocking scheme; his issues in this system are well documented all the way back to when he was a Raider. Furthermore, he is an injury waiting to happen.

I understand what you are getting at, though. You feel the Cowboys could have used that pick on a more pronounced need as opposed to running back where we had serviceable players already. I get that. But I also think Zeke was the BPA and would have been even if Bosa were still available at 4. He was a talent that the Cowboys could not pass up and I'm so very glad they didn't.

That said, if we remove the potential of injuries from the equation and we assume that Morris is 80% of the running back he was the last time he put over 1000 yards in a season, with the two of them together, 1400+ yards would not be outside the realm of possibility.

 

[BlindFaith]

Honestly Id rather see Zeke popularize another number as opposed to 22. 22 and 33 are already immortalized. Lets try and immortalize another number

I hate the idea of retiring numbers. I'd love to see another 22 or 8 or 74 running around out there. It's just a number.

 

[Aven8]

I'm not looking for Murray's 1,800 yards. I'm looking for better than the 1,100 McFadden gave them last year after a late start.

If he's under 1,200 or 1,300 that should be classified as a disappointment based on the investment. People can try to tell themselves whatever they want otherwise, but that's the truth of it.

What happens when Lamar Miller has another 700 yard season in Houston??

 

[jday]

What happens when Lamar Miller has another 700 yard season in Houston??

Much is dependent on Osweiler and how he works out as the signal caller, but I suspect Miller will do well in Houston...or, at least, better than 700 yards this season.

 

[Aven8]

Much is dependent on Osweiler and how he works out as the signal caller, but I suspect Miller will do well in Houston...or, at least, better than 700 yards this season.

I was just giving Stash hell because he wanted him soooo bad!

 

[boysfanindc]

Very tough to answer. It has been awhile since Morris was an effective running back. Granted, there are extenuating circumstances behind his decline - not getting enough touches and being on an overall terrible team - but as a backup, the Cowboys could have done alot worse. McFadden is not very good at running in a zone blocking scheme; his issues in this system are well documented all the way back to when he was a Raider. Furthermore, he is an injury waiting to happen.

I understand what you are getting at, though. You feel the Cowboys could have used that pick on a more pronounced need as opposed to running back where we had serviceable players already. I get that. But I also think Zeke was the BPA and would have been even if Bosa were still available at 4. He was a talent that the Cowboys could not pass up and I'm so very glad they didn't.

That said, if we remove the potential of injuries from the equation and we assume that Morris is 80% of the running back he was the last time he put over 1000 yards in a season, with the two of them together, 1400+ yards would not be outside the realm of possibility.

Yes that is correct, Morris has had a 1,600, 1,300 and 1,100 yards in 3 of his 4 seasons, they only time he did not was last year when the deadskins where trying to force Jones into the starting lineup and their line was terrible.

I can only imagine what he would do behind this line, so I would have liked to spend a #4 elsewhere.

But Zeke is now a Cowboy, so I will root for him to be the best back in the NFL.

 

[jday]

I was just giving Stash hell because he wanted him soooo bad!

It all makes sense now... That would have been good to know 3 threads ago...I've been arguing the merits of Zeke with stash since before the draft.

 

[jday]

Plenty enough to justify not taking a rb @4. There were much better values at the position in later rds.. Time will tell.

I disagree. If Zeke is the complete back I think he is, defensive coordinators will be inclined to shut that down over a passing game that features players you ordinarily try to shut down first.

Morris and McFadden would be passible for a running attack, but they don't scare anybody and I doubt they have the juice combined to change anyone's gameplay.

 

[Stash]

What happens when Lamar Miller has another 700 yard season in Houston??

Again, if and when that happens, I'll be expecting you to let me know about it. I don't see that happening.

 

[Aven8]

Again, if and when that happens, I'll be expecting you to let me know about it. I don't see that happening.

I don't think it will either. He might go for 1,100 in Houston. But that still isn't worth 24 mill.

 

[Alohawg1]

I disagree. If Zeke is the complete back I think he is, defensive coordinators will be inclined to shut that down over a passing game that features players you ordinarily try to shut down first.

Morris and McFadden would be passible for a running attack, but they don't scare anybody and I doubt they have the juice combined to change anyone's gameplay.

Can't wait to find out, hope you're right.

 

[Stash]

I don't think it will either. He might go for 1,100 in Houston. But that still isn't worth 24 mill.

I think he'll do better than that, but it will be another interesting thing to pay attention to during the upcoming season.

 

[JBS]

I'm not looking for Murray's 1,800 yards. I'm looking for better than the 1,100 McFadden gave them last year after a late start.

If he's under 1,200 or 1,300 that should be classified as a disappointment based on the investment. People can try to tell themselves whatever they want otherwise, but that's the truth of it.

You have to take the whole picture into the equation

Rush yards
Receiving yards
Total touchdowns