Of Crystal Balls and Tea Leaves Part III

[jday]

My stand is nothing other than taking a back with the 4th pick THIS year was poor value based on our other pressing needs on defense. As many have stated, defense takes longer to impact so waiting does even more harm. You can pick up a great back any year typically in rounds 1-3. Now they may not be as good as Zeke, but they dont have to be.

Like i pointed out, the 90's Cowboys win zero titles without that defense. And these Cowboys will be no different.

I think I could make an equally convincing argument that the 90's Cowboys win zero titles without Emmitt.

 

[jday]

If the addition of Zeke helps the Cowboys to the playoffs, for me all that will be white noise

Ah!!!! Now here is the big difference between you and I and most of the "win now" "short term" crowd.

I could care less about simply making the playoffs. If your D is just going to get you bounced then what is the point? I am all about winning championships. NOT NOW but having a team that can compete for one for a decade.

If all you want to do is get back to the playoffs this year than this was the 100% best pick you could possibly make. But not to build a long term championship contender.

No, I'm with you...I would love to see the Cowboys win a Super Bowl and I think the Zeke pick up has potential to help the Cowboys do just that. But again, if you are of the belief that defense, and defense only, wins championship, I am going to be hard pressed to convince you otherwise until that actually happens...and even then your likely to dub it the exception to the rule, so...

 

[bayeslife]

File it with your Dre Kirkpatrick, Justin Gilbert, and Dee Milliner threads. LOL

I'm not even going to entertain the thought that any of those players are on Ramsey's level.

 

[JoeKing]

No built-in excuse. Just simply saying if your measuring stick for Zeke is solely based on yards per season and how the compare to his predecessor's, any conclusion you draw from your findings will likely come up very short of being realistically accurate. But honestly you can grade him how ever you want. Makes no difference to me.

Furthermore, I never suggested he would single-highhandedly carry the team to the playoffs; however, he will be a significant contributor to that conclusion. As someone suggested, though, the Cowboys will need some luck on the health front from Romo and to a lesser extent, Dez, to have my full confidence in their playoff chances...but that should be a given.



I have not read one post suggesting this...and I've read just about all of them because I've started a good bit of the threads on the topic. I'm fairly certain no one, outside of Emmitt Smith himself, is willing to suggest Zeke in any way is already the better running back without having actually played a down in the NFL.

At this point all the Zeke foot kissing post run together and I don't remember who said what. I saw it suggested Zeke with our amazing O-line could be the first single season 3000 yard runner.

 

[Stash]

The problem is, you measure success by rushing titles. Not victories.

No, the "problem" for you is that I'm measuring Elliott by what he achieves, not by what the team achieves.

If Romo does his job as a quarterback and the defense blows it and the team loses, I'm not holding it against Romo if he did his part. And if Elliott is doing his part and the same thing happens, I'm not holding it against him.

But, if he's not holding up his end? That I'm holding against him.

 

[Stash]

No built-in excuse. Just simply saying if your measuring stick for Zeke is solely based on yards per season and how the compare to his predecessor's, any conclusion you draw from your findings will likely come up very short of being realistically accurate. But honestly you can grade him how ever you want. Makes no difference to me.

More accurate than anything else, especially fan opinion. Fans love to make excuses, numbers don't.

Furthermore, I never suggested he would single-highhandedly carry the team to the playoffs; however, he will be a significant contributor to that conclusion. As someone suggested, though, the Cowboys will need some luck on the health front from Romo and to a lesser extent, Dez, to have my full confidence in their playoff chances...but that should be a given.

Yeah, I agree with that. Although McFadden did still manage 1,100 yards without them for the most part too.

 

[jday]

At this point all the Zeke foot kissing post run together and I don't remember who said what. I saw it suggested Zeke with our amazing O-line could be the first single season 3000 yard runner.

Not very likely... As it stands I will be surprised if he surpasses Murray's record, with the talent he has behind him on the depth chart.

 

[Stash]

I really don't see anyone, including myself, attempting to lower the bar; but the measuring stick should make sense. The only stat you seem to care about is yards per season and how they compare to other runningbacks from previous seasons.

I asked this in a previous response to another poster: If Running Back A runs for 85 yards against the 85 Bears and Running Back B runs for 150 against the 85 Bucs, do you immediately assume that running back B is the better back, despite the fact that the 85 Bears were one of the most dominating defenses in the history of the NFL?

Therein is the issue with looking at yards per season alone; particularly when from different seasons. The truth is you really can't compare the two runnings backs with those stats alone. You need other stats to compare such as Yards after Contact, Ball Security, Pass Blocking, Catching, TD's (especially TD's, which is perhaps the most important stat as far as trending analytic's are concerned), number of carries 10 yards or more, 20 yards or more, etc. etc. I'm sure Erod could add to that list, but to go on draw's me from my point.

The point is, I really don't care if he is better than Murray...I think I already know he's better than McFadden, particularly for the scheme the Cowboys want to run. What I care about is rather or not his addition helps the Cowboys get back into the playoffs and hopefully make some waves.

Admittedly, my aspirations for the Cowboys do not extend beyond the playoffs because the defense needs work. I understand that completely. By that same token, I would not be surprised in the least if the Cowboys establish themselves as a serious contender, with or without a great defense. On this, we will have to wait and see. But on this point, I still believe the Cowboys made the right decision in drafting Zeke at 4 because he stands to contribute the most to the one stat that trumps all stats in football: wins and losses.

It's funny that you want to dispute measuring Elliott's success based on the most direct individual measurement - his own rushing yards, and yet want to factor in the most indirect measurement - team wins.

 

[jday]

More accurate than anything else, especially fan opinion. Fans love to make excuses, numbers don't.



Yeah, I agree with that. Although McFadden did still manage 1,100 yards without them for the most part too.

Numbers don't make excuses... But they can be misleading.

 

[Stash]

Numbers don't make excuses... But they can be misleading.

To those looking to be mislead.

 

[JoeKing]

Not very likely... As it stands I will be surprised if he surpasses Murray's record, with the talent he has behind him on the depth chart.

What about the Cowboys having the first pair of RBs with each having 1000 yards rushing in the same season?

 

[jday]

It's funny that you want to dispute measuring Elliott's success based on the most direct individual measurement - his own rushing yards, and yet want to factor in the most indirect measurement - team wins.

I don't recall mentioning team wins as a measurement of his individual success. However, as a fan, that is ultimately all I really care about.

 

[jday]

To those looking to be mislead.

No, anyone can be misled, especially those who only look at season yards as a measurement for success.

 

[Tommy]

No, the "problem" for you is that I'm measuring Elliott by what he achieves, not by what the team achieves.

If Romo does his job as a quarterback and the defense blows it and the team loses, I'm not holding it against Romo if he did his part. And if Elliott is doing his part and the same thing happens, I'm not holding it against him.

But, if he's not holding up his end? That I'm holding against him.

This thread is confusing. If we win the SuperBowl this year and Zeke plays all 16 games and rushes for 1200 yards do we all have to acknowledge that the team blew their 1st round pick because his stats do not beat Murrays career best?

 

[jday]

This thread is confusing. If we win the SuperBowl this year and Zeke plays all 16 games and rushes for 1200 yards do we all have to acknowledge that the team blew their 1st round pick because his stats do not beat Murrays career best?

Depends on who you are asking. If you ask me, that's a stat total i would be happy with.

 

[Stash]

I don't recall mentioning team wins as a measurement of his individual success. However, as a fan, that is ultimately all I really care about.

I read your statements differently then. That's all you seem to want to refer to.

 

[Stash]

No, anyone can be misled, especially those who only look at season yards as a measurement for success.

Best indicator of an individual player's success are his own individual stats. A team can win in spit of an individual player's struggles, or they can lose despite an individual player's success.

Quarterbacks are measured by their passing statistics, yards, TD's/ INT's, receivers by catches and receiving yards and TD's, and running backs by rushing yards and TD's. Because they're the most accurate indicators of how the individual player performed.

 

[Stash]

This thread is confusing. If we win the SuperBowl this year and Zeke plays all 16 games and rushes for 1200 yards do we all have to acknowledge that the team blew their 1st round pick because his stats do not beat Murrays career best?

Ask me this question when that happens. Otherwise, it's not worth talking about.

 

[boysfanindc]

Not very likely... As it stands I will be surprised if he surpasses Murray's record, with the talent he has behind him on the depth chart.

Now we have all this talent behind him?

Before the draft I thought we already had a 1,500 yard back on the roster behind our line, but we had to have a transcendent back in the draft @ 4.

 

[jday]

I read your statements differently then. That's all you seem to want to refer to.

I think you and I our having two different conversations. You want to look at his yards over the course of a season to measure against the investment the Cowboys undertook to draft him fourth overall. My contention is there are better stats to look at, such as YPC and YAC. The trouble with yards over the course of a season compared to his predecessors are three fold: 1. The level of talent he will be facing will be different; some easier than what Murray and McFadden faced and some will be more difficult. 2. He could get injured; doesn't necessarily mean the Cowboys were stupid for drafting him...injuries happen. 3. Lastly and quite possibly most important, you have to consider who he has behind him as compared to who McFadden and Murray had behind them. If the Cowboys are wise, they won't run him in the ground as they did Murray, so he will have something left should the Cowboys find themselves in the playoffs. And given who is on the depth chart behind him, as opposed to what was behind Murray in 2014 and McFadden last season, they should see the ball on a consistent basis, as well. Therefore, yards over the course of a whole season can be very misleading, whereas yards per carry and yards after contact over the course of a season do a much better job of measuring his ability as a back.