Of Crystal Balls and Tea Leaves Part III

[JoeKing]

Personally I'm going to be watching Zeke in Dallas with my "Told You So" thread ready and waiting.

If you're "waiting" then you're late in the game. We have folks already crowning him as if he's already the Cowboys greatest RB of all time.

 

[DogFace]

I mentioned in the other thread that was started, that if all they'd be getting was Baltimore's 4th rounder (if that report is accurate), I'm glad they took the guy they wanted. If they could have gotten a quality deal to trade down, I'd be good with that too. Running back simply wasn't a huge need for this team, even if the player was great.

If they wanted Lynch as much as Jerry said, trading down a few times and taking him and adding a bunch of additional picks (and getting a running back later) looks like a great plan.

I'm not rooting for this move to fail, I'm expecting it to succeed. But if it doesn't, I won't be making excuses for that or trying to lower the bar. And I don't want to see other people trying to either.

So you don't want people making excuses for him underperforming?
That may be difficult to enforce. Who determines where the bar is?


Based on the thread I thought you were upset with the pick and had someone else in mind.

 

[CATCH17]

Personally I'm going to be watching Zeke in Dallas with my "Told You So" thread ready and waiting.

Zeke will be good..

Lets see though how some of the RB's do that were selected 2 or 3 rounds later and compare that to Ramsey + the back we could've gotten later on.


Zeke is like buying a new car when the old car was fine and the house has a leaky roof. He is a luxury we did not need.

 

[Stash]

So you don't want people making excuses for him underperforming?
That may be difficult to enforce. Who determines where the bar is?

I'll ask you, do you think it's unreasonable to expect better than what McFadden did last year after a 6-game late start? 1,100 yards?

Murray, a 3rd round pick making $1.4 million ended up with 1,800 yards, leading the league by 500.

Todd Gurley ran for close to 1,200 last year, despite missing essentially 4 games.

Is it unreasonable to expect a perfectly healthy #4 overall pick to get somewhere in between what the last two backs achieved?

Again, the cost is great, we should expect the results to be great as well. Nothing wrong with that.

Based on the thread I thought you were upset with the pick and had someone else in mind.

No. I just take issue with those now wanting to backpedal and 'tap the brakes' on expectations while two weeks ago they were making all kinds of boasts and promises about getting 'their guy' and what he would immediately do.

We all hope he does well and there's nothing wrong in expecting him to.

 

[Doomsday101]

I'll ask you, do you think it's unreasonable to expect better than what McFadden did last year after a 6-game late start? 1,100 yards?

Murray, a 3rd round pick making $1.4 million ended up with 1,800 yards, leading the league by 500.

Todd Gurley ran for close to 1,200 last year, despite missing essentially 4 games.

Is it unreasonable to expect a perfectly healthy #4 overall pick to get somewhere in between what the last two backs achieved?

Again, the cost is great, we should expect the results to be great as well. Nothing wrong with that.



No. I just take issue with those now wanting to backpedal and 'tap the brakes' on expectations while two weeks ago they were making all kinds of boasts and promises about getting 'their guy' and what he would immediately do.

We all hope he does well and there's nothing wrong in expecting him to.

I do agree. Expectation will be high and rightfully so. He has a very good cast of players around him so he will not be the sole focal point for defense

 

[erod]

Personally I'm going to be watching Ramsey in Jax with my "Told You So" thread ready and waiting.

File it with your Dre Kirkpatrick, Justin Gilbert, and Dee Milliner threads. LOL

 

[Stash]

I do agree. Expectation will be high and rightfully so. He has a very good cast of players around him so he will not be the sole focal point for defense

Yep. That's all I'm really trying to say.

The past two running backs have done well to great behind this offensive line.

We should expect the same from a player we're paying a high price to obtain.

 

[DogFace]

I'll ask you, do you think it's unreasonable to expect better than what McFadden did last year after a 6-game late start? 1,100 yards?

Murray, a 3rd round pick making $1.4 million ended up with 1,800 yards, leading the league by 500.

Todd Gurley ran for close to 1,200 last year, despite missing essentially 4 games.

Is it unreasonable to expect a perfectly healthy #4 overall pick to get somewhere in between what the last two backs achieved?

Again, the cost is great, we should expect the results to be great as well. Nothing wrong with that.



No. I just take issue with those now wanting to backpedal and 'tap the brakes' on expectations while two weeks ago they were making all kinds of boasts and promises about getting 'their guy' and what he would immediately do.

We all hope he does well and there's nothing wrong in expecting him to.

So you plan on making these posters accountable for the predications they made. I don't remember any specifics. Mostly that some thought he was the best pick for the team at this time.

I wasn't sure if I wanted him and a defender or Ramsey and Henry. I'm happy with the pick and I agree he'll help the team more than anyone else.

Is there anyone you'd have rather picked? Or is it just you don't want posters back tracking on expectations?
Do you think it'll help him or the team? Or you just want some accountability out of people and it will help Cowboys zone? I'm just trying to understand your motivation.


Ok. I read the last post. You just want us to all have high expectations. You've got it from me. I expect a lot.

 

[Stash]

So you plan on making these posters accountable for the predications they made. I don't remember any specifics. Mostly that some thought he was the best pick for the team at this time.

No, I'm no forum cop or anything. But I'm not going to sit quietly while some fans now try to lower the bar.

I wasn't sure if I wanted him and a defender or Ramsey and Henry. I'm happy with the pick and I agree he'll help the team more than anyone else.

I think signing Lamar Miller and keeping the #4 pick would have been a better use of money and resources.

Is there anyone you'd have rather picked? Or is it just you don't want posters back tracking on expectations?
Do you think it'll help him or the team? Or you just want some accountability out of people and it will help Cowboys zone? I'm just trying to understand your motivation

I just don't want to hear anyone trying to change the rules after the pick has now been made. Don't try to lower the bar so that he and the Cowboys somehow meet expectations no matter what.

Ok. I read the last post. You just want us to all have high expectations. You've got it from me. I expect a lot.

I think it's perfectly reasonable and acceptable to do so. Given the investment, why wouldn't you?

Lowering them or not having them at all is an exercise for losers who want to tell themselves that anything is acceptable.

 

[Doomsday101]

No, I'm no forum cop or anything. But I'm not going to sit quietly while some fans now try to lower the bar.



I think signing Lamar Miller and keeping the #4 pick would have been a better use of money and resources.



I just don't want to hear anyone trying to change the rules after the pick has now been made. Don't try to lower the bar so that he and the Cowboys somehow meet expectations no matter what.




I think it's perfectly reasonable and acceptable to do so. Given the investment, why wouldn't you?

Lowering them or not having them at all is an exercise for losers who want to tell themselves that anything is acceptable.

It is hard to know if Zeke turns out to be a Peterson type RB who can dominate along with Romo and Dez this offense could be dominate. Myself I don't plan on tapping breaks or lowering any bar. While Zeke was not my pick but I am excited about the prospect of what he can bring to this team.

 

[erod]

It is hard to know if Zeke turns out to be a Peterson type RB who can dominate along with Romo and Dez this offense could be dominate. Myself I don't plan on tapping breaks or lowering any bar. While Zeke was not my pick but I am excited about the prospect of what he can bring to this team.

Have you heard the o-linemen? They are giddy as kids on Christmas Eve. That makes the pick worth it right there.

 

[erod]

No, I'm no forum cop or anything. But I'm not going to sit quietly while some fans now try to lower the bar.



I think signing Lamar Miller and keeping the #4 pick would have been a better use of money and resources.



I just don't want to hear anyone trying to change the rules after the pick has now been made. Don't try to lower the bar so that he and the Cowboys somehow meet expectations no matter what.




I think it's perfectly reasonable and acceptable to do so. Given the investment, why wouldn't you?

Lowering them or not having them at all is an exercise for losers who want to tell themselves that anything is acceptable.

The problem is, you measure success by rushing titles. Not victories.

 

[Doomsday101]

Have you heard the o-linemen? They are giddy as kids on Christmas Eve. That makes the pick worth it right there.

I'm sure they are, what I like is Zeke is not some one trick pony type RB. He has shown himself to be an all around RB.

 

[erod]

I'm sure they are, what I like is Zeke is not some one trick pony type RB. He has shown himself to be an all around RB.

They're tired of watching the 4 or 5 perfectly blocked plays per game go for 15 yards. They want to see a couple taken the distance.

And every OL loves a back that can pass protect and save them some embarrassment from time to time.

 

[Doomsday101]

The problem is, you measure success by rushing titles. Not victories.

For me that is all that matters. Emmitt Smith individual numbers while great was not what I was interested in, it was the impact that created wins that mattered. Barry Sanders and Thurman Thomas were also top RB during that time and while they posted great numbers it was Emmitt and the Cowboys who posted championships and that is what I hope Zeke can help bring to the table. Get defense worried about him, leaving a lot more space in the secondary to attack. That is what I loved about the 90's teams. Nate once said defense knew what was coming but there was nothing they could do about it. We could dominate you on the ground and when defense would bring help to the line of scrimmage Troy and Mike would make you pay dearly for it.

 

[erod]

For me that is all that matters. Emmitt Smith individual numbers while great was not what I was interested in, it was the impact that created wins that mattered. Barry Sanders and Thurman Thomas were also top RB during that time and while they posted great numbers it was Emmitt and the Cowboys who posted championships and that is what I hope Zeke can help bring to the table. Get defense worried about him, leaving a lot more space in the secondary to attack. That is what I loved about the 90's teams. Nate once said defense knew what was coming but there was nothing they could do about it. We could dominate you on the ground and when defense would bring help to the line of scrimmage Troy and Mike would make you pay dearly for it.

The defense doesn't really care if McFadden gains 5 yards. Or even 10. The defense cares about guys that can go 80 if they get a head of steam. They have to respect that, and crowd the line to prevent it.

That makes life so much easier for Romo and the receivers. And vice versa.

Trite, but always true.

 

[jday]

Save it for the lab. The last time I checked, this was football, not college. Any talk of "conditions being the same" is a built-in excuse and a load of nonsense. In the real world, not one second of life is the same as any other. There's no place for "scientific method" on this forum.

And if it doesn't? Whatever expectations I have of him, single-handedly taking this team to the playoffs isn't one of them. Now it looks like your expectations are even higher than mine.

No built-in excuse. Just simply saying if your measuring stick for Zeke is solely based on yards per season and how the compare to his predecessor's, any conclusion you draw from your findings will likely come up very short of being realistically accurate. But honestly you can grade him how ever you want. Makes no difference to me.

Furthermore, I never suggested he would single-highhandedly carry the team to the playoffs; however, he will be a significant contributor to that conclusion. As someone suggested, though, the Cowboys will need some luck on the health front from Romo and to a lesser extent, Dez, to have my full confidence in their playoff chances...but that should be a given.

If you're "waiting" then you're late in the game. We have folks already crowning him as if he's already the Cowboys greatest RB of all time.

I have not read one post suggesting this...and I've read just about all of them because I've started a good bit of the threads on the topic. I'm fairly certain no one, outside of Emmitt Smith himself, is willing to suggest Zeke in any way is already the better running back without having actually played a down in the NFL.

 

[jday]

No, I'm no forum cop or anything. But I'm not going to sit quietly while some fans now try to lower the bar.



I think signing Lamar Miller and keeping the #4 pick would have been a better use of money and resources.



I just don't want to hear anyone trying to change the rules after the pick has now been made. Don't try to lower the bar so that he and the Cowboys somehow meet expectations no matter what.




I think it's perfectly reasonable and acceptable to do so. Given the investment, why wouldn't you?

Lowering them or not having them at all is an exercise for losers who want to tell themselves that anything is acceptable.

I really don't see anyone, including myself, attempting to lower the bar; but the measuring stick should make sense. The only stat you seem to care about is yards per season and how they compare to other runningbacks from previous seasons.

I asked this in a previous response to another poster: If Running Back A runs for 85 yards against the 85 Bears and Running Back B runs for 150 against the 85 Bucs, do you immediately assume that running back B is the better back, despite the fact that the 85 Bears were one of the most dominating defenses in the history of the NFL?

Therein is the issue with looking at yards per season alone; particularly when from different seasons. The truth is you really can't compare the two runnings backs with those stats alone. You need other stats to compare such as Yards after Contact, Ball Security, Pass Blocking, Catching, TD's (especially TD's, which is perhaps the most important stat as far as trending analytic's are concerned), number of carries 10 yards or more, 20 yards or more, etc. etc. I'm sure Erod could add to that list, but to go on draw's me from my point.

The point is, I really don't care if he is better than Murray...I think I already know he's better than McFadden, particularly for the scheme the Cowboys want to run. What I care about is rather or not his addition helps the Cowboys get back into the playoffs and hopefully make some waves.

Admittedly, my aspirations for the Cowboys do not extend beyond the playoffs because the defense needs work. I understand that completely. By that same token, I would not be surprised in the least if the Cowboys establish themselves as a serious contender, with or without a great defense. On this, we will have to wait and see. But on this point, I still believe the Cowboys made the right decision in drafting Zeke at 4 because he stands to contribute the most to the one stat that trumps all stats in football: wins and losses.

 

[CowboyRoy]

I certainly understand where you are coming from, but I still disagree. First, Henry is not the complete back that Zeke is nor was any other back available in this draft. Second, regardless of what the stats suggest, a good running game does help your defense. On this topic, stats are very misleading. But you seem firmly ensconced in your stance on this so we will just have to wait and see what happens.

My stand is nothing other than taking a back with the 4th pick THIS year was poor value based on our other pressing needs on defense. As many have stated, defense takes longer to impact so waiting does even more harm. You can pick up a great back any year typically in rounds 1-3. Now they may not be as good as Zeke, but they dont have to be.

Like i pointed out, the 90's Cowboys win zero titles without that defense. And these Cowboys will be no different.

 

[CowboyRoy]

Every season and every draft is an entity unto itself. The Cowboys will play a completely different schedule then they did in 2014 and 2015 and will play many different teams. Hell, even the NFCE is largely different from what they were 2 years ago. The weather will be different. The circumstances surrounding each game will be different.

So how can you possibly say if Zeke is better overall than Murray he will put up more yards than he did? Look up "scientific method." In order for two performances to be fairly examined, the conditions must be exactly the same or the results are flawed and not usable.

Personally, I don't care if by season end, Zeke-detractors bang their drum about who is better and who was the better value. If the addition of Zeke helps the Cowboys to the playoffs, for me all that will be white noise.

If the addition of Zeke helps the Cowboys to the playoffs, for me all that will be white noise

Ah!!!! Now here is the big difference between you and I and most of the "win now" "short term" crowd.

I could care less about simply making the playoffs. If your D is just going to get you bounced then what is the point? I am all about winning championships. NOT NOW but having a team that can compete for one for a decade.

If all you want to do is get back to the playoffs this year than this was the 100% best pick you could possibly make. But not to build a long term championship contender.