Osa: run it back or let him walk

[thunderpimp91]

If Osa's agent has a lick of sense he would go to market if those number are even in that ballpark for him. Dallas isn't paying that for a DT. Collect a 5th round comp (it's like maximum Dallas can receive) and carry on.

I would agree, but thats why I think the franchise tag could be a legitimate option. 1 year of big money doesn't hurt nearly as bad as a long extension would at that money.

 

[CowboyoWales]

OSA gonna walk,

UFA $$$$

Yep, it's that Jerry Paradox, either he overpays to keep him from free agency, or he leaves as he and his agent knows he'll command more on the market.
Osa is that second tier free agency that we struggle to retain due in part to the top heavy elite contracts and Jerry's obsession with competing every year.

 

[Hawkeye0202]

If Osa's agent has a lick of sense he would go to market if those number are even in that ballpark for him. Dallas isn't paying that for a DT. Collect a 5th round comp (it's like maximum Dallas can receive) and carry on.

+1 ......I would love to resign Osa but running it back with him and Mazi doesn't fix our run defense issues alone. We have tried that for the last 2 years and are still ranked near the bottom. We need a solid nasty 1tech/NT and MLBer to maximize their impact.

 

[Hawkeye0202]

I would agree, but thats why I think the franchise tag could be a legitimate option. 1 year of big money doesn't hurt nearly as bad as a long extension would at that money.

I usually agree with many of your posts but not this one .........see post #83

 

[CowboyoWales]

So? We would all mostly fail as pilots too, but its pretty obvious someone messed up when a plane crashes. I see no issues calling out obvious roster management flaws by this organization in the same way. If you think this team has done a great job handing contracts I'm just not sure that we would ever come to an agreement.

Its not unheard of for teams to resign their guys a year early. OSA would have actually been a great candidate to do so with as the analytic data suggested he out performed his stat line last year by a significant margin. Now we have no idea if OSA was open to negotiating early or not, but I think its still a reasonable thought from the poster.

Yep, the biggest problem with Jerry is that all contracts (and extention negotiations) follow the same pattern, he needs variety or he'll keep getting whipped by these agents....hores, old, change, late comes to mind.

 

[thunderpimp91]

There's a nugget that suggests they generally offer young low-level free-agent players 2-year extension. I haven't looked it up but........Rico may be a candidate. I mean he's an ascending player but there is still not enough skin on the wall of what he could be worth in a couple of years.

If Dowdle is open to a 2 year deal I think it would be a perfect solution to keep him in Dallas. If he continues at even 80% of his production over the last few weeks to end the season I dont think the Cowboys will have much control over negotiations unless the utilize the tag. I try to stay open minded on the RB market because it seems to be a moving target, but I look at what others have gotten over the last year:

Mixon 3/$25
Pollard 3/$21.5
Montgomery 2/$18 (extension to make it 4 years overall)
Connor 2/$19.5 (Extension to make it 3 years overall)
Kamara 2/$12M (Extension to make it 3 years overall)

I would guess (and it is a guess) that Dowdle would be somewhere in the middle of the this group who are all getting 3 year deals or extensions to make it at least 3 years. Dowdle is a UDFA who this may be his only chance at a big NFL payday so I doubt he is open to giving any discounts. Based on the current RB FA group I think there is a valid argument that he is the top guy this year.

Its tough to evaluate because of how high people are on the rookie RB class this season, but based on other deals being given out right now I think Dowdle is going to have a much bigger market than most anticipate.

 

[CowboyoWales]

+1 ......I would love to resign Osa but running it back with him and Mazi doesn't fix our run defense issues alone. We have tried that for the last 2 years and are still ranked near the bottom. We need a solid nasty 1tech/NT and MLBer to maximize their impact.

Yep, the Mazi pick, is a becoming a seminal moment for this franchise.... made worse as the war room was televised and showed McClay band the desk for him, what an optic for our much laudered ability to draft and then to add insult to injury we let Hankins go for the sake of $2m.

 

[Brooksey]

For 10 million that would be a no brainer get it done ASAP.

You're out on Micah but in on Osa huh?
Osa has been atrocious against the run and has never had more than 4 sacks in a year for a 3 tech.
The guy shows up 6 weeks before his contract is up?

Cool name, terrible production.

 

[Hawkeye0202]

then to add insult to injury we let Hankins go for the sake of $2m

It made zero sense .......then recognize your mistake and bring in Joseph

 

[thunderpimp91]

I usually agree with many of your posts but not this one .........see post #83

I would agree that OSA is pretty average against the run, but letting him walk doesnt help that issue. The issue is we need better LB play and a NT upgrade. If you really did want to upgrade your 3T why not look at the option of using the tag and try to groom a 2nd/3rd rounder to replace him after next season? I think that would be the better option if you dont think he is worth a larger multi year deal, no? I'm not sure I understand where your disagreement is, are you suggesting that money could be better used on other positions to upgrade the defense? I think there could be some wisdom there if they are in position to draft a Mason Graham type early, and willing to also go get a less expensive but pretty good interior player in a BJ Hill for example. A lot of it just depends on how the next three weeks play out.

 

[Hawkeye0202]

You're out on Micah but in on Osa huh?
Osa has been atrocious against the run and has never had more than 4 sacks in a year for a 3 tech.
The guy shows up 6 weeks before his contract is up?

Cool name, terrible production.

There is some truth here......in all fairness his stats are pretty consistent over the past 3 years but I can't help but wonder if he's balling a bit more knowing it's time to get paid. You are exactly right, his run defense is average at best.

 

[CowboysRule]

So? We would all mostly fail as pilots too, but its pretty obvious someone messed up when a plane crashes. I see no issues calling out obvious roster management flaws by this organization in the same way. If you think this team has done a great job handing contracts I'm just not sure that we would ever come to an agreement.

Its not unheard of for teams to resign their guys a year early. OSA would have actually been a great candidate to do so with as the analytic data suggested he out performed his stat line last year by a significant margin. Now we have no idea if OSA was open to negotiating early or not, but I think its still a reasonable thought from the poster.

Thanks for your input ThunderPimp. I don't see anyone around here telling pilots how to fly planes so I'm not sure how that is relevant. I'm just tired of everyone crying about every move this front office makes. If we resign guys early, that's a mistake. If someone signs a contract and gets hurt, that contract was mistake. If we let a 5th string guy go, that's a mistake. If we sign a FA, we overpaid and it was a mistake. We don't sign anyone, it's a mistake. Then there's the camp who thinks everyone should be released or traded after year 3. The hindsight is out of control. I feel like half the people who post here don't actually like the team, they just like to complain about every move we make or don't make.

 

[Creeper]

In a normal organization, Odighizhua would be kept. Not here at the bargain basement bin. He will garner a nice payday next year and it won’t be here.

What I don’t understand is if this franchise is supposed to be all about “draft and develop”, when they draft and develop a player like Osa Odighizhua, then let him go, it makes the develop part Ring a little hollow.

Bottom line: You can’t build a great roster without spending some cap space on some upper mid-level FAs. Osa would be exactly what this team needs to keep but they wont pay for a guy who doesn’t sell a ton of jerseys.

I agree, but Osa will be another casualty of overpaying Dak. If Dak's CAP number next year was a more normal number rather than $90 million, they could easily afford to keep Osa.

But as you said, what good is developing draft picks if when they reach their potential you have to let them go. At the same time, this is how the salary CAP penalizes teams that do develop talent. No one can keep all their best players which is why some become free agents and sign with other teams.

 

[Mr_437]

I

+1 ......I would love to resign Osa but running it back with him and Mazi doesn't fix our run defense issues alone. We have tried that for the last 2 years and are still ranked near the bottom. We need a solid nasty 1tech/NT and MLBer to maximize their impact.

I really like Osa, but a large part of me agrees with you. I love the idea of drafting Harmon (6'6,315 3tech) to replace Osa and pairing him with a big NT in FA (UFA, Bobby Brown or Leki Fotu) or draft to clog the middle. MLB, Dre Greenlaw or Spillane (LV).

 

[Mr_437]

I agree, but Osa will be another casualty of overpaying Dak. If Dak's CAP number next year was a more normal number rather than $90 million, they could easily afford to keep Osa.

But as you said, what good is developing draft picks if when they reach their potential you have to let them go. At the same time, this is how the salary CAP penalizes teams that do develop talent. No one can keep all their best players which is why some become free agents and sign with other teams.

This would mean the Cowboys philosophy is flawed. Maybe those three 12-5 season is the best they can do with their structure.

 

[Creeper]

This would mean the Cowboys philosophy is flawed. Maybe those three 12-5 season is the best they can do with their structure.

I believe so. Remember in the early 1990s, the Cowboys improved but it took getting Haley and Deion to get them over the top. Those are two top tier players. Last year Dallas got close but clearly needed to improve their run defense and DL. They let some players go and really did nothing to fix the problem. They declined instead of improved. Imagine if they went out and signed a guy like Madubuike? Or even Bobby Wagner. Drafting has to be perfect for Jerry's philosophy to work, and no one is perfect.

 

[Hawkeye0202]

I would agree that OSA is pretty average against the run, but letting him walk doesnt help that issue. The issue is we need better LB play and a NT upgrade. If you really did want to upgrade your 3T why not look at the option of using the tag and try to groom a 2nd/3rd rounder to replace him after next season? I think that would be the better option if you dont think he is worth a larger multi year deal, no? I'm not sure I understand where your disagreement is, are you suggesting that money could be better used on other positions to upgrade the defense? I think there could be some wisdom there if they are in position to draft a Mason Graham type early, and willing to also go get a less expensive but pretty good interior player in a BJ Hill for example. A lot of it just depends on how the next three weeks play out.

My disagreement is tagging him as saying his floor is 25M on the open market. I don't see that for a DT for a guy who has never had more than 4 sacks and an average run defender. OTC puts his value in the $10M range and even if that's conservative we say $12-15M, I would still pause. My other problem is ......let's say you tag him, we now have a 1st rd pick and $25M interior player of the same mode, quality pass rush skills but poor run defenders. Would it not be smarter to find a solid NT/ 1 tech and make him your rotational starter? This means either benching Mazi except for passing downs and keeping Osa OR letting OSA walk and pairing Mazi with your 1tech.

Bottom line.......Mazi and Osa have been our interior starters for 2 years and the run defense is ranked near the bottom of the league. Something isn't working. It's obvious they alone can't fix it w/o solid 1tech AND MLBer as mentioned.

 

[Landryhat73]

Oh my god. If we resigned him last off-season half the board would be complaining about how we extended a player who hasn't done anything. All I ever seem to read anymore is complaining. None of you are GMs. You don't know how any of the NFL works. You would all fail in the position. 100%

If he was extended last year the contract would of been cheaper and wouldn't have to worry about replacing your number #1 DT. Your right none of us are GMs but the front office had failed recently in contracts negotiations. Name a valued contract on the team that isn't a one year deal or rookie contract?

 

[CowboysRule]

If he was extended last year the contract would of been cheaper and wouldn't have to worry about replacing your number #1 DT. Your right none of us are GMs but the front office had failed recently in contracts negotiations. Name a valued contract on the team that isn't a one year deal or rookie contract?

Hooker counts less than 4mil against the cap.

 

[thunderpimp91]

My disagreement is tagging him as saying his floor is 25M on the open market. I don't see that for a DT for a guy who has never had more than 4 sacks and an average run defender. OTC puts his value in the $10M range and even if that's conservative we say $12-15M, I would still pause. My other problem is ......let's say you tag him, we now have a 1st rd pick and $25M interior player of the same mode, quality pass rush skills but poor run defenders. Would it not be smarter to find a solid NT/ 1 tech and make him your rotational starter? This means either benching Mazi except for passing downs and keeping Osa OR letting OSA walk and pairing Mazi with your 1tech.

Bottom line.......Mazi and Osa have been our interior starters for 2 years and the run defense is ranked near the bottom of the league. Something isn't working. It's obvious they alone can't fix it w/o solid 1tech AND MLBer as mentioned.

Appreciate the explanation. I'll try to not write a book in response, but do want to make sure I address a few different points you made.

1) I'm not super familiar with how OTC calculates their valuations, but the data seems to be pretty suspect....at least for what FAs will command. It might be more accurate in terms of player value from their numbers in the current year? I'm not sure, but they have Tee Higgins at $6.8M valuation and I would bet my life savings that he ends up getting triple that and likely more in free agency.

I think its a better idea to look at contract projections based on player comps from the prior year, but we will see how it shakes out. With 3 games left OSAs 51 pressures and 6 sacks (rounding up half sacks) is similar pace to Christian Wilkins and DeForest Buckner last year and Javon hargrave the year before. I don't think he is quite an apples to apples comparison to Wilkins as OSA is certainly an inferior run player but is close from a pass rush standpoint. Hargraves is probably the best comp given he has always been a pass first, average run defending player like OSA. He got 3/$39 back in 2020 coming off a 49 pressure 4 sack year. He also got a similar deal at 4/$84M with SF a couple years ago coming off a 66 pressure 12 sack 2022 campaign. I may look foolish in a few months, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if OSA ended up with a similar maybe slightly less contract when weighted for the new cap.

2) I'd be all for going after a legitimate 1T, its much needed despite the improvement we have seen from Mazi this year but I'm failing to see how that relates to OSA at all. Its two completely different positions and I'm not sure an OSA contract should be an excuse for preventing them from investing in the position.

Detroit signed DJ Reader for just $7M guaranteed this last offseason taking just a $5M cap hit. You don't have to break the bank to afford solid 1T and Reader is a good enough player that he can bounce inside and out if needed. Similar situation with BJ Hill in Cincinnati. 3 year deal with just $13M guaranteed. Hes a guy that I would love to pursuit this offseason that can also play multiple techniques at 6'3" 310lbs and make Mazi a rotational 1T and goal line player.

3) I wouldn't be overly worried about his run game issues. Honestly his abilities in the pass game more than make up for it and Dallas has much bigger run game issues than their 3T to actually fix the run game issues....which we do need to factor in the competition level but has been much improved the last few weeks.