Paxton Lynch with 4th overall

[texbumthelife]

We would still have to overpay for a potential franchise QB eventually.

My comment had nothing to do with taking/not taking a QB. Just wondered how some people would view taking Elliott at our pick now regardless of people saying drafting a Rb top-10 is wrong. Separate argument.

 

[ConceptCoop]

Lynch isn't a franchise prospect. He could go on to be one, but he's not at that level as a prospect. You don't overpay for guys like him. If he falls - great. If not - there are plenty of fish in that sea.

 

[texbumthelife]

I've never been in favor of taking RBs with premium picks, because they don't impact winning games enough (I know a lot of people don't see it that way, but let's set that aside for a minute...). Position aside, though, Elliot's kind of becoming one of the safer options for us if we're stuck at #4 and don't get a QB. More than anything, I just don't want to miss on this high a pick.

So, I think I'd rather have Bosa, who I think is also safe. But if I were a RB fan, I could definitely see the attraction of Elliot for us there. If that's the route we go, I'll swallow the bile at the wasted value and be pretty stoked to watch the guy play. He's a great back, no doubt about it.

Appreciate the honesty.

I would love to get Bosa, but i have to say I think picking Elliott regardless of value, would be the most exciting pick for me.

 

[4lifecowboy]

I think you could move down into the teens and take Lynch. I think he might be there but I don't see him there in the 2nd or even late first.

That was a safe assumption yesterday assuming Lynch would be there in the teens the Rams trade changed that today.

 

[BigStar]

2 1st rounders, 2 2nd rounders, and 2 3rd rounders to move up to take a "shot" at a franchise QB. Let that sink in.

And we don't nudge for Wentz...while already being @ 4? Just doesn't make sense. We get Bosa instead of a potential franchise QB?

 

[Sydla]

Lynch isn't a franchise prospect. He could go on to be one, but he's not at that level as a prospect. You don't overpay for guys like him. If he falls - great. If not - there are plenty of fish in that sea.

Plenty of what fish in the sea? QB prospects with high upside?

 

[Idgit]

Appreciate the honesty.

I would love to get Bosa, but i have to say I think picking Elliott regardless of value, would be the most exciting pick for me.

A lot of fans would be thrilled. And it would definitely be fun to watch, and that's part of why we spend so much time following the Cowboys. But yeah, there are better ways to build a team with a higher probability of winning in my book.

Elliot in a trade down, though, would be great in my book. If he somehow got past the Eagles and Giants.

 

[gimmesix]

This Rams trade should open some eyes to the reality of how expensive it is to get a potential franchise QB via the draft. Looking at it, it will actually be less of a risk to take a shot this year vs having to move up in future years. The way the draft is shaping up Lynch may be our safest gamble even if he wouldn't be the starter for three years.

The Rams trade points out how some teams are so desperate to get a franchise QB that they end up doing stupid things. I would prefer my team not make an equally desperate move by overdrafting Lynch at 4.

 

[ConceptCoop]

You're missing the point. It's not about using completion percentages and then ranking the prospects in order of their percentages.

The point is that it's been shown that college QBs who never complete 60% of their passes in college rarely can develop into accurate passers in the NFL. If you are inaccurate in college, you are likely to be erratic in the NFL too. So if Cook is more "polished" as a passer and couldn't sniff 60% in college it's hard to state he's a safer pick at QB than a guy in Lynch, who needs mechanical improvements, but was still talented enough to generate a great completion percentage in college.

Correlation =\= causation. Each prospect is his own set of probabilities and potential outcomes.

We have no idea what Lynch's % looks like at MSU.

 

[4lifecowboy]

My comment had nothing to do with taking/not taking a QB. Just wondered how some people would view taking Elliott at our pick now regardless of people saying drafting a Rb top-10 is wrong. Separate argument.

The value of RB hasn't changed, if a guy that you had on your board as a first rounder yesterday, he is still a first rounder today.

 

[Alexander]

would be blood in the streets

I think it would be highly entertaining to watch.

 

[Alexander]

I keep hearing Connor Cook is a massive jerk..and his teammates don't like him.
Think "Bo Callahan" in the movie "Draft Day"

Saw him on "Game Changers" with Mariucci and he is a lot like that character it seems.

 

[texbumthelife]

A lot of fans would be thrilled. And it would definitely be fun to watch, and that's part of why we spend so much time following the Cowboys. But yeah, there are better ways to build a team with a higher probability of winning in my book.

Elliot in a trade down, though, would be great in my book. If he somehow got past the Eagles and Giants.

See therein lies the problem. When you start trading back you frequently screw yourself. Personally, if I made my draft board based solely on talent, not positional value or need, there is no way there are 5 better players in this draft than Elliott.

 

[texbumthelife]

The value of RB hasn't changed, if a guy that you had on your board as a first rounder yesterday, he is still a first rounder today.

Being a first rounder and being the fourth pick are dramatically different. No one in there right mind is saying don't take Elliott in the first round.

 

[Idgit]

See therein lies the problem. When you start trading back you frequently screw yourself. Personally, if I made my draft board based solely on talent, not positional value or need, there is no way there are 5 better players in this draft than Elliott.

There probably aren't. But there are more than 5 guys who can have a larger impact on your team than he can have. In a league built around defending the pass and passing effectively, there's a legitimate case that the 3rd best QB is more impactful than the best RB. Similar arguments can be made for guys who rush the QB, protect the QB, or cover receivers downfield.

 

[ConceptCoop]

We would still have to overpay for a potential franchise QB eventually.

Thats far from a given. Plenty of good QBs were solid value on draft day.

 

[phildadon86]

That just seems like a total reach but................. I can kind of see the logic in taking him at 4 now.

I think the Eagles are trading up at this point. Maybe even to number 2 for Wentz

 

[texbumthelife]

There probably aren't. But there are more than 5 guys who can have a larger impact on your team than he can have. In a league built around defending the pass and passing effectively, there's a legitimate case that the 3rd best QB is more impactful than the best RB. Similar arguments can be made for guys who rush the QB, protect the QB, or cover receivers downfield.

Completely agree. When taking all those things into consideration though, I think you have to consider bust potential as well. I think Zeke also has one of the lowest bust potentials while also having one of the highest ceilings and being a top 5 overall talent.

 

[texbumthelife]

I think the Eagles are trading up at this point. Maybe even to number 2 for Wentz

I haven't seen anyone put together a package that would get them enough value to move there. What do you think they could give up to move to #2?

 

[ConceptCoop]

Because the Rams have increased the value of every quarterback in the draft by paying such a high premium for a chance to take one.

A chance to take ONE. That shows how they feel about that ONE guy. Teams aren't going to give other QBs higher grades because the Rams think hey found their franchise guy.

The top guys were going in the top 3-4 picks anyhow. Having them go top 2 isn't a major change.