PFT: Skins making a play for Briggs?

[Avery]

This is going to sound somewhat stupid, but here goes.

The value from moving down from #6 to #31 is roughtly the 16th overall pick. I think Briggs is probably worth the 16th overall pick in the draft to a team.

That said, #6 is the territory that seperates true blue chip players like Gaines from someone at #31 that may or may not be a good player in the league. DE's/DT's that might be around are guys like Charles Johnson/Anthony Spencer or Quinn Pitcock/Justin Harrell. That's a potentially steep dropoff especially when it's your first and only first day pick and you need someone who can start and make an impact.

Snyder/Cerrato/Gibbs will be going against the majority of their entire fanbase if this deal goes through. I know many of us are simply armchair QB's and not engrossed in the day to day activities of an NFL franchise, but we're smart enough to see what does and doesn't work for our teams. In the Skins case, LB is not the problem; until they can obtain a pass-rush (paging Adams) that will force QB's to make mistakes (thereby allowing more oppurtunities for LB's and the secondary), their defense will continue to get picked on this season and seasons to come.

The fans know it even if Danny Boy doesn't.

 

[Crown Royal]

I don't think that he would be worth even the 16th pick. You don't need great play from that position to be a contender, just solid play.

Further, the difference between what they will get from Briggs & what they would potentially get at number 6 makes this trade even goofier for the skins/better for us.

 

[fanfromvirginia]

This is going to sound somewhat stupid, but here goes.

The value from moving down from #6 to #31 is roughtly the 16th overall pick. I think Briggs is probably worth the 16th overall pick in the draft to a team.

That said, #6 is the territory that seperates true blue chip players like Gaines from someone at #31 that may or may not be a good player in the league. DE's/DT's that might be around are guys like Charles Johnson/Anthony Spencer or Quinn Pitcock/Justin Harrell. That's a potentially steep dropoff especially when it's your first and only first day pick and you need someone who can start and make an impact.

Snyder/Cerrato/Gibbs will be going against the majority of their entire fanbase if this deal goes through. I know many of us are simply armchair QB's and not engrossed in the day to day activities of an NFL franchise, but we're smart enough to see what does and doesn't work for our teams. In the Skins case, LB is not the problem; until they can obtain a pass-rush (paging Adams) that will force QB's to make mistakes (thereby allowing more oppurtunities for LB's and the secondary), their defense will continue to get picked on this season and seasons to come.

The fans know it even if Danny Boy doesn't.

The fact that #6 is in the blue chip range is in theory at least accounted for in the various draft charts. As is the ability to sell tix. Thus, the differences between individual picks at or near the top is very large. So, in theory, all that is accounted for. In practice, however, I believe that the draft charts are significantly out of whack. Lower picks are undervalued, thereby making them less useful as pot sweeteners, thereby less used.

In an ideal world, the draft charts would be recalculated (because they are truly useful in increasing economic efficiency but not as useful as they should be.) But the chart kind of sort of works now so it would probably never be replaced.

Having said all that, I think Briggs would be a bit of a stretch at 16 and the key, as you imply, is that the Commanders don't much need him.

Were this to happen, it would instantly become one of my favorite Commanders mistakes.

 

[Pabst]

I understand the argument that Briggs would be, value-wise, worth about the 16th pick in the draft. And, certainly there is evidence (Briggs' body of work thus far) to support the argument that he would be worth that value.

But, this isn't a straight up #16 pick for Briggs; You're dropping out of the top 10 draft selections, and more importantly, the top 7. I say "top 7" because this draft, many "draft insiders" consider, has about 7 "Blue-chip" prospects in it. If you have one of those picks (The Commanders, obviously, have the 6th choice), the value of that selection should, in theory, rise dramatically. Not all draft years are created equal, from a talent standpoint, and that's probably the biggest flaw in Jimmy Johnson's draft value chart that I can see; it doesn't discriminate between draft class talent (And, how could it?). One must also calculate losing the ability to draft a blue-chip prospect into any supposed "trade value" between the Commanders and Bears.

In addition, you are not getting a player that is under-contract. You are going to have to pay Briggs, and quite a lot. While Briggs may certainly have "16th pick value," he will most certainly get paid significantly more than the 16th overall draft choice will.

I'm not saying it's stupid or idiotic for the Commanders to make this trade. It just doesn't look very smart, all factors considered.

 

[fanfromvirginia]

I understand the argument that Briggs would be, value-wise, worth about the 16th pick in the draft. And, certainly there is evidence (Briggs' body of work thus far) to support the argument that he would be worth that value.

But, this isn't a straight up #16 pick for Briggs; You're dropping out of the top 10 draft selections, and more importantly, the top 7. I say "top 7" because this draft, many "draft insiders" consider, has about 7 "Blue-chip" prospects in it. If you have one of those picks (The Commanders, obviously, have the 6th choice), the value of that selection should, in theory, rise dramatically. Not all draft years are created equal, from a talent standpoint, and that's probably the biggest flaw in Jimmy Johnson's draft value chart that I can see; it doesn't discriminate between draft class talent (And, how could it?). One must also calculate losing the ability to draft a blue-chip prospect into any supposed "trade value" between the Commanders and Bears.

In addition, you are not getting a player that is under-contract. You are going to have to pay Briggs, and quite a lot. While Briggs may certainly have "16th pick value," he will most certainly get paid significantly more than the 16th overall draft choice will.

I'm not saying it's stupid or idiotic for the Commanders to make this trade. It just doesn't look very smart, all factors considered.

I agree with you on the year-to-year problem. I think, though, as I posted above, that the blue chip picks are disproportionately more expensive according to the charts as a function of their blue-chippiness. In other words, it's theoretically accounted for.

 

[Pabst]

I agree that the chart attempts to (The chart seems to dictate that the first four selections, set at a 400 point scaling difference, represent the blue chippers), but doesn't work as well in practice. I'm not sure it ever could, unless the chart was changed for each year.

I agree with you that the chart accounts for "blue chippers" in theory, but in practice I do have some issues with it.

 

[firehawk350]

Gaines Adams at 6 makes more sense to me. Not to mention Briggs wants to be paid. They know how to accomplish that, but it just further complicates their future actions.

Gaine Adams is too much of a pass-rush only DE and is a liability in the run game. We'll probably pick up Anderson, he is more complete then Adams.

 

[Big Dakota]

I understand the argument that Briggs would be, value-wise, worth about the 16th pick in the draft. And, certainly there is evidence (Briggs' body of work thus far) to support the argument that he would be worth that value.

But, this isn't a straight up #16 pick for Briggs; You're dropping out of the top 10 draft selections, and more importantly, the top 7. I say "top 7" because this draft, many "draft insiders" consider, has about 7 "Blue-chip" prospects in it. If you have one of those picks (The Commanders, obviously, have the 6th choice), the value of that selection should, in theory, rise dramatically. Not all draft years are created equal, from a talent standpoint, and that's probably the biggest flaw in Jimmy Johnson's draft value chart that I can see; it doesn't discriminate between draft class talent (And, how could it?). One must also calculate losing the ability to draft a blue-chip prospect into any supposed "trade value" between the Commanders and Bears.

In addition, you are not getting a player that is under-contract. You are going to have to pay Briggs, and quite a lot. While Briggs may certainly have "16th pick value," he will most certainly get paid significantly more than the 16th overall draft choice will.

I'm not saying it's stupid or idiotic for the Commanders to make this trade. It just doesn't look very smart, all factors considered.

Ya, it's certainly a year to year thing. I remember that Russell Maryland draft. The value chart wouldn't work well for such a bad top 10. This draft, IMHO has plenty of talent at the top, so the chart works much better.

As for the money, I'm sure Briggs will get a chunk of cash, but remember AJ Hawk got 37.5 million as the 5th pick and first LB taken last year. I can see the Skins giving Gains a similar contract at #6. To me it's not the money here, because we all know this cap hell of which people used to speak isn't a reality. The thing that gets me, is a guy that runs around free to make plays and get 100+ tkls in Lovies scheme worth trading away the chance for a dynamic pass rusher? Heck, the skins are in a possition to, if he slips to #4, go up and grab Calvin Johnson, maybe the #1 guy overall. When your that high, and the draft is this good top 5, ya better make it count and get that cornerstone player.

 

[Big Dakota]

Gaine Adams is too much of a pass-rush only DE and is a liability in the run game. We'll probably pick up Anderson, he is more complete then Adams.

That's an option too. Might even be able to trade back 2-3 spots, recoup a 3rd, and still get Anderson?

 

[Hostile]

Gaine Adams is too much of a pass-rush only DE and is a liability in the run game. We'll probably pick up Anderson, he is more complete then Adams.

I disagree with you there.

I like Anderson, but wouldn't pass on Adams to take him. I would take Okoye earlier than a lot might though.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Remember that super linebacking corp of Arrington, Trotter and Armstead that was supposed to kill everyone?

Snyder needs to think this thing through, stay at #6 and draft Gaines and improve their line first.

I agree, but the problem is that Greg Williams calls for his DEs to play like DTs, that's why every year everyone says Washington needs to draft a pass-rusher to play DE, and every year they don't, it's because Greg Williams has no use for them, instead he relies on his LBs to make plays in the backfield while the front 4 control the gaps

again, Snyder needs to dump Greg

 

[Bob Sacamano]

The funny thing is the guy has 3 sacks in 4 years. He's a "cover me up and i'll make Tkls" guy. 6 Ints in 4 years as well. As another poster was saying, he's not a dynamic player. He'll get ya 100 Tkls if protected, but they could get Gains Adams up there at #6, and he has a chance to be dynamic. Most teams don't pick that high very often and when you do, you had better try and get a cornerstone. I don't see Briggs as a cornerstone. I hope they do this!!

I'm telling you guys, this is what Greg Williams does on D, he requires his front 4 to control the gaps while his LBs attack the backfield, that's why they keep ignoring DE and are making a move for Briggs, even though he hasn't been much of a pass-rusher

 

[Big Dakota]

I'm telling guys, this is what Greg Williams does on D, he requires his front 4 to control the gaps while his LBs attack the backfield, that's why they keep ignoring DE and are making a move for Briggs, even though he hasn't been much of a pass-rusher

Williams obviously thinks this is a good move if he's willing to give up a blue chip guy. Then again ya never know? They could get Briggs and still get an OT like Staley or a CB like Ross at 31? Thing is for the Bears, Briggs sits in 07, they get nothing.

 

[Danny White]

This is going to sound somewhat stupid, but here goes.

The value from moving down from #6 to #31 is roughtly the 16th overall pick. I think Briggs is probably worth the 16th overall pick in the draft to a team.

That said, #6 is the territory that seperates true blue chip players like Gaines from someone at #31 that may or may not be a good player in the league. DE's/DT's that might be around are guys like Charles Johnson/Anthony Spencer or Quinn Pitcock/Justin Harrell. That's a potentially steep dropoff especially when it's your first and only first day pick and you need someone who can start and make an impact.

Snyder/Cerrato/Gibbs will be going against the majority of their entire fanbase if this deal goes through. I know many of us are simply armchair QB's and not engrossed in the day to day activities of an NFL franchise, but we're smart enough to see what does and doesn't work for our teams. In the Skins case, LB is not the problem; until they can obtain a pass-rush (paging Adams) that will force QB's to make mistakes (thereby allowing more oppurtunities for LB's and the secondary), their defense will continue to get picked on this season and seasons to come.

The fans know it even if Danny Boy doesn't.

What would you think if we gave up the #22 pick for Briggs?

I, for one, wouldn't be happy with it.

I think the price is too steep to pay... but I sure as heck hope the Redsk*ns pay it! :laugh2:

 

[theebs]

apparently this deal is dead.

According to chris mortensen I guess jerry angelo is upset the Commanders were talking to the media about it during their negotiations.

how long before they give away that 6th pick for dre bly?

 

[Pabst]

If Jerry Angelo truly killed the deal due to perceptions that the media knew before hand, it really makes me wonder about that organization.

This is a trade that, by far, weighs heavily in your (Chicagos) favor. You don't even have to haggle; the opposing team went and offered the farm from the outset. And you throw it out because your ego can't handle a percieved slight? Give me a break. That blows my mind.

 

[Cbz40]

Bears say 'No' to Briggs deal


posted: Tuesday, March 27, 2007 | Print Entry


JOHN CLAYTON

The Bears are saying no to a Lance Briggs trade to Washington. That stand won't change during this week's owners meeting, but don't be surprised if they take the weekend and the early part of next week to study the concept.

The Commanders are willing to drop from No. 6 in the first round to No. 31 in a trade for the Bears linebacker. The Bears biggest problem is feeling bullied, which is why their initial position is "No."


Briggs' agent, Drew Rosenhaus, has a great relationship with Commanders owner Daniel Snyder, so it's no surprise he could use Snyder to shake up the Bears. The other problem is the Bears don't want to draft as high as No. 6. Still, this might be an interesting offer for a franchise player threatening to miss 10 regular season games. Give them the weekend to think about it.


An ill wind: Gusty winds blew into Phoenix Tuesday afternoon, causing tents to shake and papers to fly, but the winds of change continue to blow for players with behavior problems.
Bengals wide receiver Chris Henry and Titans cornerback Pacman Jones have been called into New York to have hearings with commissioner Roger Goodell next week. Goodell plans to administer suspensions before the draft for players who are repeatedly involved with off-the-field problems even though they haven't had convictions. It's part of the league's new get tough policy.


Obviously, Bears defensive tackle Tank Johnson won't be in New York. He's serving a four-month prison sentence for his parole violation that will keep him locked up for 60 of the 120 days. Johnson will visit the commissioner's office once he's out of jail.


To play or not to play: Ravens tackle Jonathan Ogden is still debating whether to play football next season, and the team will have to wait out his decision. Some who know Ogden doubt he will play, but the Ravens are optimistic. They better be. They guaranteed his $6.1 million base salary to free up cap room. The Ravens know they need Ogden to anchor their offensive line. They may have to wait until close to the draft to find out what he might want to do.


Jets load up: The Jets made two interesting moves to give them some pass rush on their 3-4 defense. They signed Dolphins linebacker-defensive end David Bowens to a three-year, $6.1 million contract to be a third-down pass-rusher and blitzing 3-4 linebacker. They also added defensive end Andre Wadsworth to help out on the pass-rush for a few plays a game. Those moves, along with the Kenyon Coleman signing, will allow the Jets the chance to draft positions other than defensive line and linebacker during the first day of the draft.

 

[big dog cowboy]

Obviously, Bears defensive tackle Tank Johnson won't be in New York. He's serving a four-month prison sentence for his parole violation that will keep him locked up for 60 of the 120 days. Johnson will visit the commissioner's office once he's out of jail.

That won't be a pleasant visit for him. Even a couple of years ago he would have just been in a little trouble. In todays NFL, he is in deep do-do.

 

[random Cs]

Why does anyone listen to anything Drew Rosenhaus says? When the source for all the information is an agent everyone should notice the red flag.

 

[Beast_from_East]

they are going to give up the 6th pick in the draft for the guy? Are you kidding me.

Gibbs is the most stubborn coach I have ever seen when it comes to young players.

I would imagine they will make this move and then try and trade out of 31 to add a third? That 31 pick doesnt have that much power.

good grief. Why would anyone make this trade.

Will there be two adrian petersons on the bears if this trade is made?

Noway is Briggs worth swaping the 6th pick for the 31st pick. I dont have the chart in front of me, but I would say that has to be at least 2 first rounders in value between the 31st pick and the 6th pick.

This would go down as one of the worst rape jobs of all time if this is indeed the trade. Hand it to those Deadskins the F'up a top 10 pick.:laugh2: