QB's (not named Brady) who played in the last 17 Super-Bowls & Draft Positions

[Aerolithe_Lion]

But since 2007 only Foles, Brees and Russ have won. So the odds are slim that Hurts wins right?

Slimmer than Mahomes or Burrow only based on that, yeah. But Hurts is on a career path to Hurts to conquer those odds. He is a top 5 QB, something we haven’t seen out of a day 3 draft pick or UDFA since 2000 with Brady.

That is a very long streak… The scouts are actually good at what they do. Even when high QBs bust, or late round QBs overachieve, it still balances out in that way

What you’re saying is accurate in a nutshell: if you want what we’ve attained you should be drafting a QB higher than where we got Hurts; we saw something others didn’t or we just got lucky or however you want to paint it. But looking for a SB QB in the second round is not the best strategy, based on the odds and how good the scouts are at finding those guys to go in the first.

 

[pitt33]

I would say that almost half of them are not only 1st round picks, they were picked #1 or #2 overall.

It might also be interesting to find out how old they were when they went to the Super Bowl. I suspect that many in the past ten seasons (not named Brady) are young enough to be in their first contract. Could it be that this is a trend created by their 2nd contract and it's effect on the quality of their teammates?

Most were drafted very high and advance to/or win a SB while on their rookie contract.

These quarterbacks elevate their team, make quick progressions, and are steadfast leading their team down the field. No three and outs or back breaking interceptions.

It’s a tried and true testament over time.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Slimmer than Mahomes or Burrow only based on that, yeah. But Hurts is on a career path to Hurts to conquer those odds. He is a top 5 QB, something we haven’t seen out of a day 3 draft pick or UDFA since 2000 with Brady.

That is a very long streak… The scouts are actually good at what they do. Even when high QBs bust, or late round QBs overachieve, it still balances out in that way

What you’re saying is accurate in a nutshell: if you want what we’ve attained you should be drafting a QB higher than where we got Hurts; we saw something others didn’t or we just got lucky or however you want to paint it. But looking for a SB QB in the second round is not the best strategy, based on the odds and how good the scouts are at finding those guys to go in the first.

It’s a silly strategy and you’re being stubborn because admitting that it’s silly would somehow look positive towards the Cowboys. At the end of the day the Bears didn’t make a SB because they drafted Rex Grossman in the first round. It’s silly to suggest.

 

[DFWJC]

But since 2007 only Foles, Brees and Russ have won. So the odds are slim that Hurts wins right?

I know you want to leave Brady out to make the stats look better but he did win it several times

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

I know you want to leave Brady out to make the stats look better but he did win it several times

You know I want to leave Brady out lol? Why do you think that is? The Op said he’s excluding Brady so I’ve respected that….not sure what this has to do with my point though lol.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

I know you want to leave Brady out to make the stats look better but he did win it several times

Let me also say that I find it odd the OP wants to exclude Brady because he’s one of the best of all time but won’t do the same for guys like Brees and Russ.

 

[xwalker]

Zeke gaine

QB's who played in the Super-bowl, from 2007, and their draft round:
Brady, a 6th round pick, is excluded from this list.
Round/Player

1 Manning
1 Grossman
1 Manning
1 Roethlisberger
n/a Warner
2 Brees
1 Manning
1 Rodgers
1 Roethlisberger
1 Manning (Eli)
1 Flacco
2 Kaepernick
3 Wilson
1 Manning
3 Wilson
1 Manning
1 Newton
1 Ryan
3 Foles
1 Goff
1 Mahomes
2 Garoppolo
1 Mahomes
1 Stafford
1 Burrow
1 Mahomes
2 Hurts

Zeke averaged over 10 yards per carry in 2022.

I excluded the runs when he had less than 10 yards per carry...

Selective Ststistics...

 

[TwistedL0g1k]

Zeke gaine

Zeke averaged over 10 yards per carry in 2022.

I excluded the runs when he had less than 10 yards per carry...

Selective Ststistics...

I'm sorry you are unable to understand the point so clearly illustrated in the statistics that were presented.

You might want to find another thread that doesn't trigger you.

 

[CowboyFrog]

Nahhh let these boys have their back slapping, high five thread.

It will be Shirtless Chest jump bumps for pages..lol
We might get a JG buttslap thrown in...

 

[Cowboys5217]

Zeke gaine

Zeke averaged over 10 yards per carry in 2022.

I excluded the runs when he had less than 10 yards per carry...

Selective Ststistics...

That's quite the spin you have to put on that to avoid admitting the truth of the matter - there is a direct correlation between drafting QBs high with getting to, playing in, and winning a Super Bowl. Jerry Jones's refusal to spend premium draft picks on a QB or make moves to acquire one are the primary reason the team hasn't competed for squat in nearly 3 decades.

 

[TwistedL0g1k]

Per NBC, "Draft Analytics for QB":

"The R-squared between the overall draft pick and a quarterback’s approximate value per game in NFL seasons two through four is just 0.24, and only EDGE and LB have been more correlated with their overall draft position."

 

[TwistedL0g1k]

Yes- First Round picks are no sure thing: (per Fox)

"Only 6 of 38 first-round quarterbacks advanced their team to the conference championships while on their rookie deal":

• Patrick Mahomes
• Joe Burrow
• Jared Goff
• Josh Allen (lost)
• Blake Bortles (lost)
• Andrew Luck (lost)

 

[CowboyFrog]

Yes- First Round picks are no sure thing: (per Fox)

"Only 6 of 38 first-round quarterbacks advanced their team to the conference championships while on their rookie deal":

• Patrick Mahomes
• Joe Burrow
• Jared Goff
• Josh Allen (lost)
• Blake Bortles (lost)
• Andrew Luck (lost)

You can take it farther also.. when 3 QB's are picked in the first 3 picks..2 yes 2 are historically considered failures and the 1 has been great at like 10% as opposed to just being in the league 6 years later..so 1 out of 3 are still in the league and a 10% chance to be something great...

 

[xwalker]

I'm sorry you are unable to understand the point so clearly illustrated in the statistics that were presented.

You might want to find another thread that doesn't trigger you.

Only clowns would not laugh at removing Brady from the list of
Super Bowl QBs.

 

[gtb1943]

Only clowns would not laugh at removing Brady from the list of
Super Bowl QBs.

Brady is the exception that proves the premise.

He is an outlier.

There have been over a hundred QBs picked in the last 15 years throughout the draft.

IF you draft one 4th or lower your odds are very bad compared to drafting one in the first.

wilson like brees was not drafted higher because of their somewhat diminutive size.

Looking at the history of the SB very few low or undrafted QBs have ever gotten there let alone won. So Dak's odds are pretty bad. Warner and Brady over the last 20 years are the only ones either low rd or UDFA to win the game. No way to sugarcoat it. And anyone comparing Dak to either one....

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

It’s a silly strategy and you’re being stubborn because admitting that it’s silly would somehow look positive towards the Cowboys. At the end of the day the Bears didn’t make a SB because they drafted Rex Grossman in the first round. It’s silly to suggest.

It’s not silly. Tom Brady and Kurt Warner are two examples of defying odds that the OP listed. But both those guys were drafted over 20 years ago; scouting and analytics have gotten worlds better and now no one more recently has won, despite the fact that way more QBs go on day 3 than 1 and 2.

Why do you not pay running backs market breaking deals? Because it’s been 30 years since a team succeeded by paying a RB that much money. Last time was probably Emmitt. Why do you not draft running backs top 10? Again, probably about 30 years since that worked out in the longterm for a SB hopeful. Is it “silly” to avoid those things? No, you look at what teams do who win, and that defines the probability of you winning with that strategy. Can a team possibly win a SB while paying a RB 15m+$ a year? Maybe, but it would definitely be defying great odds.

Is it silly to spend the first overall pick on a TE? How do you know a TE worthy of first overall can’t carry a team to a SB? Because history tells you it doesn’t work that way.

Everything teams do they do because someone else did it successfully, and the things they don’t do is because there’s historical data saying it fails. You’ve gone 34 years now since you took a first round QB, 20+ years since you took a day 1 or 2 QB. This timeline coincides with this current era of divisional round ceilings you’re running into. You can chalk it up to random coincidence, but the entire league has data that concludes otherwise.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

It’s not silly. Tom Brady and Kurt Warner are two examples of defying odds that the OP listed. But both those guys were drafted over 20 years ago; scouting and analytics have gotten worlds better and now no one more recently has won, despite the fact that way more QBs go on day 3 than 1 and 2.

Why do you not pay running backs market breaking deals? Because it’s been 30 years since a team succeeded by paying a RB that much money. Last time was probably Emmitt. Why do you not draft running backs top 10? Again, probably about 30 years since that worked out in the longterm for a SB hopeful. Is it “silly” to avoid those things? No, you look at what teams do who win, and that defines the probability of you winning with that strategy. Can a team possibly win a SB while paying a RB 15m+$ a year? Maybe, but it would definitely be defying great odds.

Is it silly to spend the first overall pick on a TE? How do you know a TE worthy of first overall can’t carry a team to a SB? Because history tells you it doesn’t work that way.

Everything teams do they do because someone else did it successfully, and the things they don’t do is because there’s historical data saying it fails. You’ve gone 34 years now since you took a first round QB, 20+ years since you took a day 1 or 2 QB. This timeline coincides with this current era of divisional round ceilings you’re running into. You can chalk it up to random coincidence, but the entire league has data that concludes otherwise.

So the Bears won the SB because Rex Grossman was a first round pick? The league does not use this data lol…if they did they’d never draft a qb past the first round lol.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Brady is the exception that proves the premise.

He is an outlier.

There have been over a hundred QBs picked in the last 15 years throughout the draft.

IF you draft one 4th or lower your odds are very bad compared to drafting one in the first.

wilson like brees was not drafted higher because of their somewhat diminutive size.

Looking at the history of the SB very few low or undrafted QBs have ever gotten there let alone won. So Dak's odds are pretty bad. Warner and Brady over the last 20 years are the only ones either low rd or UDFA to win the game. No way to sugarcoat it. And anyone comparing Dak to either one....

They’re all outliers lol. How is Russell Wilson not an outlier or Drew Brees? The whole list is full of outliers. Rex Grossman sucked and got carried to a SB. Nick Foles sucks….they’re all outliers lol.

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

So the Bears won the SB because Rex Grossman was a first round pick? The league does not use this data lol…if they did they’d never draft a qb past the first round lol.

Teams need more than one QB in case of injury. They’ll always keep drafting QBs on day 3. No team is scrounging around in round 4 for their franchise QB

And Rex Grossman never won the SB

 

[xwalker]

Brady is the exception that proves the premise.

He is an outlier.

There have been over a hundred QBs picked in the last 15 years throughout the draft.

IF you draft one 4th or lower your odds are very bad compared to drafting one in the first.

wilson like brees was not drafted higher because of their somewhat diminutive size.

Looking at the history of the SB very few low or undrafted QBs have ever gotten there let alone won. So Dak's odds are pretty bad. Warner and Brady over the last 20 years are the only ones either low rd or UDFA to win the game. No way to sugarcoat it. And anyone comparing Dak to either one....

All Time: 54-46 for 1st round QBs vs non-1st round QBs.
Past 24 years: 50-50

You are completely overlooking opportunity cost. 1st round QBs cost far more than non-1st round QBs in both draft capital and cap dollars.
- Based on relative costs, 1st round QBs should win over 90% of Super Bowls.
- In reality they've only won 54%.

Eli Manning vs Drew Brees
- Eli 1st pick of the 1st round
- Brees 1st pick of the 2nd round

Using contract numbers for the first pick of the 2nd round the same year as Eli:
- Eli 5x more draft capital than R2-Pick1 (based on the trade chart).
- Eli 8x higher rookie per season salary than R2-Pick1.
- Eli 10x higher total guaranteed money than R2-Pick1.