Question for the "let's let Lawrence walk" crowd

[Bobhaze]

“And a one-uh and a two-uh”.....LOL.

 

[Doomsday101]

Reasonable, we hope? Break the bank, don't!

I don't think they will. Dallas has done a great job with their cap, we have not gone out and obtained top FA despite the fact many here get upset Dallas has not gone out and overpaid in FA market. I fully expect Dlaw, Dak, Zeke and Cooper to come to agreements.

 

[jrumann59]

DLaw is not Mack and should not be paid premiere pass rusher money and that is what Mack is getting paid. DLaw is a very good LDE which is not as premiere as RDE or WOLB he should be paid what an elite LDE is getting paid. There are not many in the league that can rush the passer and ply the run as well as he does. as for the drop off he is the only real weapon on the DL and as DE. Gregory has spurts, M Collins teases, TCraw is steady and then their is everyone else. DLaw will be 12-15 sack a year guy with some good help on the other side, his duties vary depending on down non obvious passing downs he has to play the run 1st unlike a guy like Gregory whose main duty is to get to the QB.

 

[TwentyOne]

We let Lawrence walk.

What do we do at DE? Some seemed to suggest it was OK because we had Irving in the wings. Well, so much for that. You can't head into the season with your DE depth chart being Charlton, Armstrong, Gregory and sometimes Crawford (who is a better interior player than outside player). That would be a bottom half of the league DE group, at best.

Consider this. WITH LAWRENCE, the Cowboys were middle of the pack in sacks and pressures. They were actually in the bottom third of teams in terms of Football Outsiders sack rate. Where do you think those numbers go with no Lawrence? Or do you just say, "hey, we weren't all that great at getting after the QB with Lawrence, so who cares if we still stink at it in 2019?"

What should Dallas do if Lawrence is not part of this team in 2019?

And note, I am not opposed to letting Lawrence walk............. as long as the franchise has a plan in place to compensate for his loss. They can't pull a WR offseason 2018 ploy where they will get "production by committee."

When you run a franchise you cant base your decission only on the question what will we do if we let this or this player walk. The answer will always be the same: you give yourself the feeling that the success of your team is dependend on one player.

But in a team sport it is rational that this cant be true. One player is part of the success. But he isnt the lone reason for it.

Sometimes you have to make decissions that may hurt your success for some time. Letting DLaw walk may be bad for us in 2019. In some degress. But that doesnt mean we will be a worse team. Maybe we will be even better. All we may be missing is a good LDE. The question is how we compensate for that. Can we invest the money we win from letting him go into something that will make us better overall ?!

Again, the success of a team comes from all players. Not one. I understand the nostalgic love for one player. But that is the wrong approach in decission making. I understand the tendency to be extatic about a player but that again is the wrong approach in decission making.

We are in the salary cap era. And we have restrictions about our roster. So these are hard facts you cant negotiate. As much as your feelings would love to forget about them.

DLaw is a great run player. A medicore to good pass rusher. He tends to play great in September and declines as the season goes forward. He has serious longterm injury issues. He doesnt show up in big games nor does he elevate the players around him.

So do you bind your franchises fate to that player ? Are you the one who will tell the other 46 guys on gameday: " hey guys this is what i decided. We gave him a big contract because we thought we needed a good LDE. Sorry that we cant succeed in ou4 main goal because we are missing money to sign the players we really need to be successfull. " ?

You dont ask yourself a one dimensional question. You dont ask yourself a question where the goal is to get the answer you want to hear. If you want to find good solutions you have to analyse the whole situation. Even if it doesnt feel good to yourself or if it means to make hard decissions.

I would FT him another year and see how Tacco develops. That was he was drafted for anyways. He seemed to be better after one year of working out with the right drugs. Give him another offseason and he may be a good run defender. Nothing more is needed on the left side anyways. And that would be for a tenth if the money Lawrence demands.

In the end its all about the benjamins.

 

[CouchCoach]

The hint is that DLaw feels he did his part once and played under the FT and made the Pro Bowl

It is now on the Cowboys to pony up and pay him and not mess with the FT again

Could be but it would be hard for a guy coming off an injury to sit out on 20M for one season. Bell did that but most players will not pass on that much money.

 

[Doomsday101]

The hint is that DLaw feels he did his part once and played under the FT and made the Pro Bowl

It is now on the Cowboys to pony up and pay him and not mess with the FT again

In Fairness Cowboys paid him 17 mill on the season which was tops at DE so it is not as if he played for free. Grated players do not like the tag because it does not provide overall security but 17 mill for a season you can live a good life. So lets not pretend Dallas did him wrong

 

[Sydla]

When you run a franchise you cant base your decission only on the question what will we do if we let this or this player walk. The answer will always be the same: you give yourself the feeling that the success of your team is dependend on one player.

But in a team sport it is rational that this cant be true. One player is part of the success. But he isnt the lone reason for it.

Sometimes you have to make decissions that may hurt your success for some time. Letting DLaw walk may be bad for us in 2019. In some degress. But that doesnt mean we will be a worse team. Maybe we will be even better. All we may be missing is a good LDE. The question is how we compensate for that. Can we invest the money we win from letting him go into something that will make us better overall ?!

Again, the success of a team comes from all players. Not one. I understand the nostalgic love for one player. But that is the wrong approach in decission making. I understand the tendency to be extatic about a player but that again is the wrong approach in decission making.

We are in the salary cap era. And we have restrictions about our roster. So these are hard facts you cant negotiate. As much as your feelings would love to forget about them.

DLaw is a great run player. A medicore to good pass rusher. He tends to play great in September and declines as the season goes forward. He has serious longterm injury issues. He doesnt show up in big games nor does he elevate the players around him.

So do you bind your franchises fate to that player ? Are you the one who will tell the other 46 guys on gameday: " hey guys this is what i decided. We gave him a big contract because we thought we needed a good LDE. Sorry that we cant succeed in ou4 main goal because we are missing money to sign the players we really need to be successfull. " ?

You dont ask yourself a one dimensional question. You dont ask yourself a question where the goal is to get the answer you want to hear. If you want to find good solutions you have to analyse the whole situation. Even if it doesnt feel good to yourself or if it means to make hard decissions.

I would FT him another year and see how Tacco develops. That was he was drafted for anyways. He seemed to be better after one year of working out with the right drugs. Give him another offseason and he may be a good run defender. Nothing more is needed on the left side anyways. And that would be for a tenth if the money Lawrence demands.

In the end its all about the benjamins.

Lawrence is not a "mediocre to good pass rusher". He's better than that. And to say he doesn't elevate the players around him is poppycock.

 

[vlad]

We let Lawrence walk.

What do we do at DE? Some seemed to suggest it was OK because we had Irving in the wings. Well, so much for that. You can't head into the season with your DE depth chart being Charlton, Armstrong, Gregory and sometimes Crawford (who is a better interior player than outside player). That would be a bottom half of the league DE group, at best.

Consider this. WITH LAWRENCE, the Cowboys were middle of the pack in sacks and pressures. They were actually in the bottom third of teams in terms of Football Outsiders sack rate. Where do you think those numbers go with no Lawrence? Or do you just say, "hey, we weren't all that great at getting after the QB with Lawrence, so who cares if we still stink at it in 2019?"

What should Dallas do if Lawrence is not part of this team in 2019?

And note, I am not opposed to letting Lawrence walk............. as long as the franchise has a plan in place to compensate for his loss. They can't pull a WR offseason 2018 ploy where they will get "production by committee."

Curious how ppl are for letting DLaw go but picking up Hurn's option. I'd rather go down a roster spot and give all that money to Dlaw than a WR that may get like 20 catches.

 

[Little Jr]

Are you kidding me? Dude, there was a thread based on a RUMOR that D-Law wanted to be paid like Mack and Donald. And multiple posters, some you interacted with, were specifically pointing out Mack and Donald's contract and comparing him to them LOL

And I have asked you multiple times to show me the "Drop" in quality - D-Law was ranked within the top 10 all season - there was no significant drop, anywhere, in his game. You're taking raw data. Again, D-Law is not Mack, he is not Donald, he is a guy who very similar to someone like Graham (D-Law is a better pass rusher) or Jones. That's the contract he's going to get.

There is really no argument to make, outside of potential injury concerns, to talk him out of getting the contract he deserves.

I didn't see the Donald comparison but I have seen the Mack comparison. The only conversation I was involved in was the Mack and Miller comparison.

I have shown you the drop in play over the last 12 games the past 2 years. If you choose not to like the "raw" numbers, that's your right. Just like I choose not to like pff. But you used the pff rank in your comment on another thread . Pff has him ranked as good, not great and as the #9 edge rusher. If we go off that and pay him like the 9th best edge rusher then it would look like, 5 yr, 80m, 52m guaranteed. So if I'm on board with 5 yr, 95m and 60m guaranteed, which would make him the highest paid DE, I would defiantly be on board with that contract.

Where you and I and others disagree is, I'm up for trading him also. I don't think it's a dooms day scenario, I don't think the defense falls apart. I think he's good not great. Even your pff guys think he's good, not great. I understand how the NFL and NFL contracts work. Some times you have to pay a above avg player like a good player, a good player like a great player and a great player like a all world player. I get that. As long as it's in the 5 yr 95m 58m guarantee range, +/- a couple million, that's a fair deal for both him and the team.

Then he and the team will need to figure out how to fix him falling off after the first 4 games. Maybe less snaps at the beginning of the season. Who knows but raw numbers or not, his fall off isn't good. When half your sacks and tfl come in the first 4 games, it's a issue . When your tackles drop off from 5 a game to 3 a game it's a issue. 2 might not sound like a lot but that's the difference of 30 tackles over a full season. When your tackles in Sept are 42 and drops almost half in Dec with 22, that's a issue. When your TFL in Sept are 15 and drops off to 3 in Dec, thats a issue. Whem your sacks in Sept are 13 and drops off to 3 in Dec , that's a issue.

 

[CyberB0b]

We have plenty of cap. As long as DLaw doesn't want crazy money, he'll be signed.

 

[JustChip]

The more I look at what he is looking for and the upcoming contracts that Dallas needs to work out, the more I think he should be tagged and traded to a team with a huge amount of cap space.

Cle is a team that might be interested. They have a ton of cap space and they are an up and comer with a superstar at one end spot(Myles Garrett) and the acquisition of Dlaw for the other side would make them a dominating force.

Here are three trade proposals.

No 1. Dlaw for Emmanuel Ogbah, David Njoku, and Duke Thomas. We had some interest in Ogbah when he was drafted, we need a tight end and Duke Thomas is a throw in since they just added kareen hunt and no longer need him and we could use a backup RB. Dlaw at this point is worth an early 1. Ogbah (a late 2nd), Njoku(a late 1st) and Thomas would be close to equal value. We take a step back at DE but aren't left stranded and get to fill a couple of other needs.

Option no 2. Dlaw for Ogbah, Jabril Peppers and Duke Thomas. same theory but instead of filling the need at TE we fill the need at S.S.

Option no 3. Dlaw for Cle 1st rd pick. Pick 17 and Pick 80. A 1st and 3rd and Duke Thomas. Less than Mack but a decent haul and again an opp to fill a few holes on the team.

All contingent on contract extensions etc.

I like your thinking and I would be onboard with any of these options. However, I don't think you're going to get Duke Thomas simply because there's such a question mark over Hunt's availability. There's no clarity on that and won't be for quite awhile if the Zeke situation is any indication.

 

[mattjames2010]

I didn't see the Donald comparison but I have seen the Mack comparison. The only conversation I was involved in was the Mack and Miller comparison.

I have shown you the drop in play over the last 12 games the past 2 years. If you choose not to like the "raw" numbers, that's your right. Just like I choose not to like pff. But you used the pff rank in your comment on another thread . Pff has him ranked as good, not great and as the #9 edge rusher. If we go off that and pay him like the 9th best edge rusher then it would look like, 5 yr, 80m, 52m guaranteed. So if I'm on board with 5 yr, 95m and 60m guaranteed, which would make him the highest paid DE, I would defiantly be on board with that contract.

Where you and I and others disagree is, I'm up for trading him also. I don't think it's a dooms day scenario, I don't think the defense falls apart. I think he's good not great. Even your pff guys think he's good, not great. I understand how the NFL and NFL contracts work. Some times you have to pay a above avg player like a good player, a good player like a great player and a great player like a all world player. I get that. As long as it's in the 5 yr 95m 58m guarantee range, +/- a couple million, that's a fair deal for both him and the team.

Then he and the team will need to figure out how to fix him falling off after the first 4 games. Maybe less snaps at the beginning of the season. Who knows but raw numbers or not, his fall off isn't good. When half your sacks and tfl come in the first 4 games, it's a issue . When your tackles drop off from 5 a game to 3 a game it's a issue. 2 might not sound like a lot but that's the difference of 30 tackles over a full season. When your tackles in Sept are 42 and drops almost half in Dec with 22, that's a issue. When your TFL in Sept are 15 and drops off to 3 in Dec, thats a issue. Whem your sacks in Sept are 13 and drops off to 3 in Dec , that's a issue.

PFF has explanation of what he is - either way, he's still a top 10 DE. What aren't you getting? He's not getting ELITE contract, he's getting a top 4-3 DE contract. I don't understand what the struggle here is to get this - it's like some of you have a mental block for this just to stay big mad.

I'm not interested in raw numbers - multiple people looked at D-Laws tape and have him as a top 10 DE for the ENTIRE season. As for pass rushing alone, he's a lot higher than that. It's the same with Byron Jones - the site ranking has him at #12 - but the official list PFF has put out last month has Jones ranked as the fifth best corner.

We can all sit around and criticize PFF - but it's not just one person analyzing these games, it's multiple people. And they all came to the conclusion, after watching and analyzing the tape, he's one of the best 4-3 DE in the league. Dead stop.



This is what PFF had to say - he is not just a "good" player, they had his season as "spectacular". Their own words. 89.5, you aren't just replacing that with some rando DE from FA.

Unless you actually want to start providing sources that watch film and provide deeper data - there's nothing else here. He's going to get paid like one of the best 4-3 DE in the league because he has been in back to back seasons.

 

[JoeKing]

ACooper was worth a 1st ergo DLaw must be worth at least a 1st as well is the thinking

Let's just agree they are both worth a 1st without fighting about which one is worth more, okay?

 

[JustChip]

One thing about the DLaw situation that few here seem to talk about is this: How the team treats him will be watched by all the young talent on this team when it’s time for them to sign a second contract.

What I mean by that is Stephen Jones has been preaching for years how important it is for young players to work hard, play well, and be a leader...then you get rewarded by a big contract. DLaw has done ALL that. He has been the opposite of guys like David Irving who have talent but waste it on the wrong things. You can’t resign everyone of course, but isn’t DLaw a guy this organization can point to and say he’s done things the right way?

I think this team needs to sign him. Some fans act like finding a DE that can rush the passer is as easy as picking the pass rush tree out back. (Right next to the “franchise QB tree”!) We draft and develop this guy, he performs, then we let him go?

I'm with you as a general rule. However, the net is that D Law is going to get rewarded for his time here whether that reward is ultimately here or somewhere else. Most players recognize it's a business and few, if any, would offer a home team discount simply because the team treated them right heretofore.

D Law would be a loss, but the task is can the team convert that loss into a net gain via a trade. Simply letting him walk and then replacing with another teams FA for the same or substantially same money doesn't move the needle for me at all.

 

[xwalker]

We let Lawrence walk.

What do we do at DE? Some seemed to suggest it was OK because we had Irving in the wings. Well, so much for that. You can't head into the season with your DE depth chart being Charlton, Armstrong, Gregory and sometimes Crawford (who is a better interior player than outside player). That would be a bottom half of the league DE group, at best.

Consider this. WITH LAWRENCE, the Cowboys were middle of the pack in sacks and pressures. They were actually in the bottom third of teams in terms of Football Outsiders sack rate. Where do you think those numbers go with no Lawrence? Or do you just say, "hey, we weren't all that great at getting after the QB with Lawrence, so who cares if we still stink at it in 2019?"

What should Dallas do if Lawrence is not part of this team in 2019?

And note, I am not opposed to letting Lawrence walk............. as long as the franchise has a plan in place to compensate for his loss. They can't pull a WR offseason 2018 ploy where they will get "production by committee."

The vast majority of opinions I've seen are keep or franchise and trade.

See the definition of a Strawman argument.

 

[mattjames2010]

The vast majority of opinions I've seen are keep or franchise and trade.

See the definition of a Strawman argument.

Your suggestion to spread production out with a pothead, a nobody Taco, and JAGs is an even worse argument and you being strawmanned here is a better argument anyways.

 

[xwalker]

Your suggestion to spread production out with a pothead, a nobody Taco, and JAGs is an even worse argument and you being strawmanned here is a better argument anyways.

So you are trying to give an example of a strawman argument by making one yourself...

 

[Sydla]

The vast majority of opinions I've seen are keep or franchise and trade.

See the definition of a Strawman argument.

There are a number of posters that want to let him walk based on what they think he will get contract wise.

This thread was directed at those people.

 

[SSoup]

Letting Lawrence walk makes no sense. To be clear: "Letting him walk" means not even tagging him and letting someone freely sign him on the open market this offseason, leaving us to wait for a measly 3rd round compensatory pick. Obviously that's wildly stupid. Who's saying we should let him walk for a 2020 mid-round compensatory pick instead of tagging or trading him for a higher, sooner pick, at least?

I am open to the possibility that Lawrence shouldn't be signed to a monster long-term deal that assumes he'll be an elite player 3-7 years into the future.

Given that 2 of his 5 seasons (40%), he was a total non-factor no-show, I can understand not trusting he won't do that again. And given that he's only had one truly "elite" season (which was actually just an amazing 7-game span followed by a much more quiet 9 games), I can understand some concern about whether he's actually an elite player or just a fairly generic good pass-rusher.

Given all that, I understand some worries about whether a long, monster deal will be good in the end. There's a very realistic chance that, 3 or 4 seasons from now, he'll be a mediocre broken-down guy whose contract will be absolutely killing us.

Even so, if we're leery of his ability to be relied upon for great production well into the future, letting him walk into the free market this year is still the dumbest option under the sun.

 

[Sydla]

Letting Lawrence walk makes no sense. To be clear: "Letting him walk" means not even tagging him and letting someone freely sign him on the open market this offseason, leaving us to wait for a measly 3rd round compensatory pick. Obviously that's wildly stupid. Who's saying we should let him walk for a 2020 mid-round compensatory pick instead of tagging or trading him for a higher, sooner pick, at least?

I am open to the possibility that Lawrence shouldn't be signed to a monster long-term deal that assumes he'll be an elite player 3-7 years into the future.

Given that 2 of his 5 seasons (40%), he was a total non-factor no-show, I can understand not trusting he won't do that again. And given that he's only had one truly "elite" season (which was actually just an amazing 7-game span followed by a much more quiet 9 games), I can understand some concern about whether he's actually an elite player or just a fairly generic good pass-rusher.

Given all that, I understand some worries about whether a long, monster deal will be good in the end. There's a very realistic chance that, 3 or 4 seasons from now, he'll be a mediocre broken-down guy whose contract will be absolutely killing us.

Even so, if we're leery of his ability to be relied upon for great production well into the future, letting him walk into the free market this year is still the dumbest option under the sun.

But even in the tag and trade scenario, you are creating a hole at DE. And that's the real underlying question here for those that are willing to not have Lawrence on the team in 2019.

What are you going to do at DE? And no, saying it will be fine with Gregory, Charlton and Armstrong isn't much of a plan. I've said myself, if you could tag him and get a #1 pick for him, sure, explore that. But you also better have a plan in place to fill what would be a massive hole on a defense that finally was better than some of the slop we saw the previous years.