Revisiting Romo's Late Game Stats

[Super_Kazuya]

It doesn't have to be some official stat in your NFL StatsTrump All handbook. Anyone with a brain knows Dallas wouldn't have a .572 winning percentage without romo. Injuries can easily be factored out. Find a stat with a better top five and I'll poke holes all through it.

As usual you miss the point. It's not an official stat because it has no rule. Which is why you avoided answering the question, because it exposes it as a useless stat.

In baseball, pitchers "win" games by pitching 5 innings and having the team be ahead when they exit the game. It's not a particularly useful stat, since you could give up 10 runs and win, but it's something.

QB wins is, the QB showed up that day, he gets the win. It's a stupid stat for people too lazy to actually watch the game.

 

[DFWJC]

And if we're taking the most important QB stat of wins out of the equation. We should also take out the yardage when a WR makes an amazing run after the catch or a DB slips or a missed tackle.

Unless this is tennis or golf or bowling, one single individual player cannot be assigned wins and losses with any sort of real meaning
And because players don't play both ways in football, this is even much more the truth....more than any other game quite possibly.

However, you can overweight importance of a QB compared to other positions and not be out of line.

 

[percyhoward]

There's a chart with success rates for 4Q comebacks and game winning drives floating around the internet with regard to the top 20 or so quarterbacks.

The information is now outdated by a year, but I think it's still a relatively good indicator.

The 3 quarterbacks that have better than a 50% chance in those situations were Brady, Ryan, and Luck. So it's really surprising to see their struggles.

Romo was better than average in that regard, btw.

And to no one's surprise, it seems Eli Manning plays better to close out games.

Thanks, Percy

4th qtr comebacks is purely a team stat, depending on defense as much as offense. That accounts for Brady and Ryan anyway. I didn't include Luck because of the small sample size, but I bet most of that is him.

The thing about Eli's comebacks is that his 1st-3rd qtr performances (82.2) are often what necessitates them.

 

[JD_KaPow]

No. Good job trying to spin what I said though. Winning percentage is relevant(of course you factor in things like # of games played). A top five of Montana staubach Elway Brady manning, makes it credible.

Where to begin? First of all, that isn't the list of top 5 winning percentages. The list goes like so (QBs with 70+ wins):

Brady
Staubach
Montana
Manning
Bradshaw
Roethlisberger
Stabler
Young
Unitas
Elway
Favre

I think we can already begin to see problems here, starting with that Bradshaw-Roethlisberger-Stabler group in the middle. Winning percentage is of course correlated with QB quality: teams with better players tend to be better teams, after all. But the correlation is clearly not all that strong, and that's before we note omissions like Dan Marino. Not to mention that this list is limited to guys who had long careers; they had to be reasonably good just to last that long. If we relax the restriction, Andy Dalton's in the top 15 and Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick are in the top 5.

Secondly, ANY way of evaluating QBs that isn't completely stupid will put your 5 guys right near the top. That doesn't mean winning percentage is "relevant" to QB evaluation. I would argue that most reasonable ways of evaluating QBs that don't use wins and losses would come up with a much better list than the above.

 

[KJJ]

The fact that Romo is second on that list ahead of 3 QB's who are first ballot locks for the HOF shows why I don't put much stock in passer rating stats. Passer rating stats aren't affected much by one big mistake late in a game at the worst possible time. A QB can complete 7 of 8 passes in the final 5 minutes of a game and the one miss can be an int that ends the game but the QB still finishes with a high passer rating for that final 5 minutes.

 

[Frosty]

Does he touch it on defense? You are ignoring half of the game with this thinking.

Romo plays defense quite a bit....especially after he fumbles or throws all those INTs and Pick 6's....someone has to make the tackle......LOL Just choking

 

[jnday]

So Barry Sanders "sucks" because he only had 1 playoff win as well?

QB is an unique position. That fact shouldn't have to be debated.

 

[percyhoward]

Elway, Staubach, Montana, Manning, Brady. Top 5 winning percentage for qb's.

Find a stat with a better top five than that.

W-L %
Danny White .691
Troy Aikman .570

 

[guag]

I didn't read this whole thread, but all I have to ask is this:

Is Trent Dilfer a better QB than Tony Romo?
Is Brad Johnson a better QB than Tony Romo?
Is Eli Manning a better QB than Romo (2 SB wins!!)?
Is Mark Rypien a better QB than Romo?

I can go on.

 

[TwoDeep3]

It's not irony, it's coincidence. There are stats that measure team performance, and stats that measure individual performance, and people use stats to support arguments because arguments that aren't supported by measurements don't tend to be all that convincing.

I disagree. One side of this discussion continually use stats to measure Romo. As if his passing performance is in a vacuum. Then the rebuttal of his not getting to the play-off game is blamed on other parts of the team.

So this is a team sport. They win and lose together. Thus, to me, all the stats in thew world are meaningless if this is the case. As atested to by so many here.

To suggest there isn't a bit of irony invested in the double standard is ludicrous.

 

[WhizKid]

The fact that Romo is second on that list ahead of 3 QB's who are first ballot locks for the HOF shows why I don't put much stock in passer rating stats. Passer rating stats aren't affected much by one big mistake late in a game at the worst possible time. A QB can complete 7 of 8 passes in the final 5 minutes of a game and the one miss can be an int that ends the game but the QB still finishes with a high passer rating for that final 5 minutes.

Would you say any list with Romo in the top of anything amongst hall of fame QBs is one that should be ignored? Would that then make any argument for the "greatness" of Romo invalid, in affect ridding any and all evidence supporting his success?

I see what you are saying, but isn't that the point of this thread? Are we not discussing the final five minutes?
Anytime there is a discussion about the entirety of his game, it generally evolves into a discussion about his mishaps towards the end of the game. But when any evidence supporting the success of the individual is shown, that last 5 minutes should be ignored?

Maybe it's just the passer rating you were talking about and I am reading to much into it.

 

[KJJ]

In response to Ntegrase96's post about the last 5 minutes of games. (I am on a new phone, and replying within that thread proved an insurmountable challenge.)

He compared the first 55 minutes vs. last 5. I will compare the first 45 minutes vs. the last 15 to show how the parameters drawn by the researcher can make all the difference in the world.

Also, for the sake of relevance, I'll only look at the 4th-quarter passes when the difference in the game was no more than one score (+ or - 8 points), and I'll also look at OT. That is how "Late and Close" is defined.

The first number is the player's late and close rating, the second is his rating through the first 3 quarters.

Rodgers 107.2 / 110.7 (-3.5)
Romo 95.7 / 94.1 (+1.6)
Brees 93.0 / 103.9 (-10.9)
PManning 88.9 / 103.7 (-14.8)
EManning 88.2 / 82.2 (+6.0)
Brady 85.9 / 102.5 (-16.6)
Roethlisbgr 82.1 / 96.4 (-14.3)
Ryan 81.2 / 99.0 (-17.8)
Rivers 69.0 / 99.9 (-30.9)

Most of these QB are 10+ points worse in late and close situations. On average, in fact, their rating goes down 11.3 points. Romo's actually goes up, which I think is good to know.

Remember, this does include the last 5 minutes of the game.

Never seen anyone as consumed by passer rating stats more than you. Romo currently has the 5th highest career passer rating all-time which has him ahead of Brees and Brady who are locks for the HOF. His career passer rating has him ahead of Montana and many other HOF QB's who've won multiple championships. Seeing you like digging up stats how about digging up how many turnovers Romo has in the final 5 minutes of games. I know from the research I've done he's had at least 3 turnovers in the final 5 minutes of the 7 elimination games he's played in.

 

[percyhoward]

The irony is so many claim this is a team sport as they defend Romo with Romo's stats, blaming the defense, and a cadre of other things, but still use stats to exemplify Romo and justify results.

You measure individual performance by using individual stats, and team performance by using team stats. That isn't irony, it's consistency.

 

[Apollo Creed]

 

[percyhoward]

Never seen anyone as consumed by passer rating stats more than you.

So find some other individual stat with a higher correlation to winning. I'll gladly use it instead.

 

[jnday]

The one good thing about this debate is that Romo will pull a couple of his boneheaded mistakes this season, like he always does, and the Romo defenders will fade away for a couple of weeks after those mistakes cost the team a win. For a short time, Romo's flaws are accepted reality and the rest of the posters don't have read about how it wasn't Romo's fault. Those days without the unreasonable Romo defending are priceless. I look forward to them every year.

 

[Super_Kazuya]

The one good thing about this debate is that Romo will pull a couple of his boneheaded mistakes this season, like he always does, and the Romo defenders will fade away for a couple of weeks after those mistakes cost the team a win. For a short time, Romo's flaws are accepted reality and the rest of the posters don't have read about how it wasn't Romo's fault. Those days without the unreasonable Romo defending are priceless. I look forward to them every year.

And so will your heroes Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, etc. You're boring.

 

[Idgit]

I disagree. One side of this discussion continually use stats to measure Romo. As if his passing performance is in a vacuum. Then the rebuttal of his not getting to the play-off game is blamed on other parts of the team.

So this is a team sport. They win and lose together. Thus, to me, all the stats in thew world are meaningless if this is the case. As atested to by so many here.

To suggest there isn't a bit of irony invested in the double standard is ludicrous.

I'm not even sure I understand the point you're making, but the way I'd characterize it is that there are fans who believe that statistics can be a useful measure of performance. And there are fans who do not. The ones who do attempt to use measurements to evaluate the team on questions of the team's performance, and they attempt to use individual stats to attempt to measure an individual's performance. The ones who do not tend to be more likely to confuse the two or to conclude something that should be expected or is at most coincidental is ironic.

Irony occurs when a text and a subtext have differing meanings, and when the subtext's meaning is amusing or surprising in juxtaposition to the overt textual meaning in some way.

 

[Nova]

4th qtr comebacks is purely a team stat, depending on defense as much as offense. That accounts for Brady and Ryan anyway. I didn't include Luck because of the small sample size, but I bet most of that is him.

The thing about Eli's comebacks is that his 1st-3rd qtr performances (82.2) are often what necessitates them.

One really funny example of that is when NY beat NE in NE in 2011. NE hadn't been beaten at home in something like 17 games.

Anyway, if memory serves correct, The Giants were up 10-3 toward the end of the 3rd quarter with 3rd and goal. Instead of playing conservatively and at least getting the FG, Eli throws a pick in the endzone trying to lob the ball up to Mario Manningham (of all the options).

Brady goes down and scores, 10-10 at the beginning of the 4th. Prior to that, the Pats offense was dormant. They went on to score 17 points in the 4th Q

Eli had to engineer a comeback win in the final minute and ultimately the Giants won 24-20, but he put them in that position in the first place. Could have had a comfortable 13-3 lead, but Eli made things interesting.

 

[Idgit]

The one good thing about this debate is that Romo will pull a couple of his boneheaded mistakes this season, like he always does, and the Romo defenders will fade away for a couple of weeks after those mistakes cost the team a win. For a short time, Romo's flaws are accepted reality and the rest of the posters don't have read about how it wasn't Romo's fault. Those days without the unreasonable Romo defending are priceless. I look forward to them every year.

Or...wait for it...they'll point out that every single QB in the history of ever has those exact same types of mistakes and that it comes with the dinner at his position. Then they'll point to other measure of his overall performance to support that, and his detractors will have to resort to using team measurements again--even though those obviously don't directly apply--because that's the only way to defend a weak position: by blurring the lines between the players performance and what ought to be measured.