Revisiting Romo's Late Game Stats

[KJJ]

Oooh!! Ooh! Can I guess at this one? I'm going to go with: "because our opponents all have a higher passer rating against us than we have against them in those games." And then I'll go further to say that this happens against good teams more than bad ones, because the good teams tend to both pass effectively and defend the pass effectively. Or they do one of the two really, really well. So the fact that we only do one of those two things well, and lose to better teams as a result, ought to surprise nobody.

The reason the opponents have all had a higher passer rating against us in those games than we've had against them is because our defense can't stop anyone and because Romo has had 12 turnovers in his 6 elimination game losses with only 8 TD passes. If you keep putting your defense back on the field due to repeated turnovers any defense even good defenses will crack eventually. We saw that with the Ravens back in 08-09 with Flacco turning the ball over multiple times in back to back title game losses. A QB's TD to turnover ratio in "do or die" games determines the outcome of those games more than any other stat.

 

[iceberg]

The reason the opponents have all had a higher passer rating against us in those games than we've had against them is because our defense can't stop anyone and because Romo has had 12 turnovers in his 6 elimination game losses with only 8 TD passes. A QB's TD to turnover ratio in "do or die" games determines the outcome of those games more than any other stat.

Did Wilson win the Superbowl or the D?

 

[KJJ]

So find some other individual stat with a higher correlation to winning. I'll gladly use it instead.

A QB's TD to turnover ratio.

 

[iceberg]

A QB's TD to turnover ratio.

Did Wilson win the Superbowl, or the D?

 

[KJJ]

Did Wilson win the Superbowl or the D?

Wilson was a big part of why Seattle has become a great team and reached the SB. The Seahawks defense gets most of the credit it was outstanding but that team never reaches the SB with Tarvaris Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst at QB.

 

[percyhoward]

A QB's TD to turnover ratio.

Correlation coefficient of pass rating differential to wins is no lower than 9.0. What is the corresponding number for QB TD to turnover ratio differential?

 

[KJJ]

Did Wilson win the Superbowl, or the D?

Russell Wilson's TD to turnover ratio in the SB was 2-0 and Peyton Manning's was 1-2. Like I said no stat determines the outcome of big games more than a QB's TD to turnover ratio.

 

[TwoDeep3]

I'm still not following you. You're making the (good) point that other players on offense contribute to the high individual QB statistics. I get that part. I don't see where the irony comes in. I think we all understand that there are difficulties sussing out and measuring an individual's play when he's on the field with 21 other people and that the play of the individuals combine to be the play of the team.

I'm just not seeing where there's anything ironic involved. But I'll let it drop.

The irony is the same people who talk about this being a team sport also want to defend Romo with stats that suggest he does it by himself.

He does not. Never has and never will. Someone has to catch the pass.

Further, I understand the stats. I dismiss them because they aree not Romo alone and are bein g used as such.

 

[KJJ]

Correlation coefficient of pass rating differential to wins is no lower than 9.0. What is the corresponding number for QB TD to turnover ratio differential?

You tell me you're consumed with stats like that. Go see how many QB's you can name that have won elimination games having more turnovers than TD's.

 

[Idgit]

The reason the opponents have all had a higher passer rating against us in those games than we've had against them is because our defense can't stop anyone and because Romo has had 12 turnovers in his 6 elimination game losses with only 8 TD passes. If you keep putting your defense back on the field due to repeated turnovers any defense even good defenses will crack eventually. We saw that with the Ravens back in 08-09 with Flacco turning the ball over multiple times in back to back title game losses. A QB's TD to turnover ratio in "do or die" games determines the outcome of those games more than any other stat.

Yep. Turnovers get you beat. That's where the pesky passing effectiveness differential comes into play. But if you knew the passing effectiveness in those games was low, why'd you ask the question in the first place? You already had your answer.

 

[EST_1986]

You tell me you're consumed with stats like that. Go see how many QB's you can name that have won elimination games having more turnovers than TD's.

Don't bring up elimination games. That's not a real stat.

 

[Idgit]

Don't bring up elimination games. That's not a real stat.

Now, why would you say that? Surely you know that it is...we just went through this. Wins and losses are team stats. And individual performance in elimination game wins and losses are individual stats. It's pretty straightforward.

 

[KJJ]

Yep. Turnovers get you beat. That's where the pesky passing effectiveness differential comes into play. But if you knew the passing effectiveness in those games was low, why'd you ask the question in the first place? You already had your answer.

Romo was very effective passing the ball vs the Giants in the season finale in 2011. He finished the game completing over 78% of his passes with a 106.0 passer rating but he had 2 turnovers and missed a wide open Dez early in the game that could have given the Cowboys some early momentum. You don't lose any passer rating points for missing on a big play.

In the season finale in 2012 vs Washington both RG3 and Romo were awful but the difference was RG3 didn't have a single turnover compared to Romo who had 3 turnovers. Turnovers are usually the difference in elimination games. A QB can be very efficient all day and have one bad throw in the end ruin it we saw that vs Denver last season.

 

[KJJ]

Don't bring up elimination games.

FANS never want to talk about elimination games when discussing Tony Romo.

 

[percyhoward]

You tell me.

So you know for a fact your stat is more reflective of winning, you just don't know how you know.

 

[Idgit]

Romo was very effective passing the ball vs the Giants in the season finale in 2011. He finished the game completing over 78% of his passes with a 106.0 passer rating but he had 2 turnovers and missed a wide open Dez early in the game that could have given the Cowboys some early momentum. You don't lose any passer rating points for missing on a big play.

In the season finale in 2012 vs Washington both RG3 and Romo were awful but the difference was RG3 didn't have a single turnover compared to Romo who had 3 turnovers. Turnovers are usually the difference in elimination games. A QB can be very efficient all day and have one bad throw in the end ruin it we saw that vs Denver last season.

Yes to all of this.

 

[Frosty]

Curious how Tony Romo stats would compare next to Brett Farve......

 

[WhizKid]

Any stat that has Romo amongst or ahead of a number of HOF QB's can't be a stat that has a strong correlation to making the playoffs, winning big games and championships.

I don't think the stat was intended in it's presentation as correlation to winning in the playoffs or a championship. I think the OP's intent was to show that given close games by 8 or less points with 5 minutes to go, Romo does in fact perform well, in fact better than he did in the rest of the game, but nothing substantial that he is detrimental to his team. I believe, if I am reading correctly, this is more of thread about "clutchness" and efficiency in close games, as that is a hotly debated issue when it comes to Romo.

With todays rules everything has been bent to open up the passing game and perfect the performance of QB's. It all reflects in their passer ratings compared to the passer ratings of QB's from decades ago. The NFL wants scoring and the rules have allowed even average NFL QB's to put up some impressive numbers and passer ratings. Chad Pennington and Matt Schaub who are 12th and 13th on the all-time passer rating list have higher career passer ratings than Dan Marino and many other HOF QB's. Of the top 10 all-time career passing rating leaders 7 are current QB's. Mark Sanchez has a higher passer rating than Joe Namath. Romo's career passer rating blows away Aikman and Staubach's which further proves how little correlation passer rating stats have to winning championships.

I don't disagree with any of this. But you have to call into question the greatness of any QB successful from here on out, as it is a much easier game to pass now.

Romo is not a "great" QB he's a very good QB that's all he's proven himself to be based on his regular season performances compared to his elimination game performances. It's not about passer ratings it's about a QB's W/L record in the games that matter most.

I agree with the bold part. I would also say having a very good Qb vs a great Qb is not really a big deal, as the greatness is just icing on top of the cake. With that being said, I would also say you could watch a Qb and tell whether or not he is bad, good, very good, and great. I think Romo is very good and has flashed greatness at times. My point being is, Romo is plenty O'quarterback to help win a Superbowl.

Can we get a top 50 list on QB W/L records in games that matter most? I've been searching for it, but can't find it. The only reason I never consider it is because I have no other teams(QBs) to compare it too, it really is an empty stat without the others. I would also say that W/L records in general have a higher correlation to winning playoff games and Super Bowls because to get in the playoffs you pretty much must have a W/L record above .500 and probably be a winning team in your division

But the W/L record is a meaningless "stat" because one must provide context, otherwise it is an empty stat.

Curious do you know where we could compare team W/L records to quarterback W/L records or team W/L records in big games vs their quarterback records in W/L big games? The argument does not simply end at (8-8), there is the question of "why"? Which I think is the main argument between "pro-romos" and "no-romos" (That seriously sounded ridiculous typing) one would like to answer the question as to why the Cowboys are 8-8 whereas the other simply says we are 8-8 and not 9-7, therefore QB bad, but the reality being this team is just not good enough to compete even if we got into the playoffs and/or our coach likes to give away games for Christmas. In the end we are in the same position we were before the next year.

If you're reading that I don't like Romo or think Romo isn't a good QB or that his sucks then you are reading too much into it.

It was kinda of there for second, but I got what you are saying now.

 

[KJJ]

So you know for a fact your stat is more reflective of winning, you just don't know how you know.

I know from researching playoff games and SB's that the QB who has the better TD to turnover ratio their team usually wins.

 

[percyhoward]

I dismiss the stats because they are not Romo alone and are being used as such.

If want will to be able to discuss football on anything more than a team level, you have to acknowledge the reality of individual performance.