Right now we have the 6th pick, so...

[SDogo]

Working on all the scenario's right now. Once I update the website I'll post an update.

 

[Manwiththeplan]

Yes, but what are the odds of all of those things happening (because that is what you're predicting)? If we lose to Philly, it's likely that at least one of those events will occur (plus, SF could lose and we could overtake them in strength of schedule).

I think if we lose to Philly, it's more likely that we'll pick better than 6th.

We cannot overtake SF or ARZ in SoS. And honestly, I'm predicting 3 bad teams to lose to 3 teams above .500. While it's possible that one team will win, it's hard to say it's likely that one will happen

 

[SDogo]

We cannot overtake SF or ARZ in SoS.

Where are you getting this from?

We cant pass Arizona but a two team swing can put us ahead of SF. It's very likely.

 

[tecolote]

We cannot overtake SF or ARZ in SoS. And honestly, I'm predicting 3 bad teams to lose to 3 teams above .500. While it's possible that one team will win, it's hard to say it's likely that one will happen

The Jets will rest their starters and the Chargers have nothing to play for, if anything thet both are more likely to lose.

 

[fanfromvirginia]

We cannot overtake SF or ARZ in SoS. And honestly, I'm predicting 3 bad teams to lose to 3 teams above .500. While it's possible that one team will win, it's hard to say it's likely that one will happen

Actually, it's not hard at all. It's basic statistics (probability). To calculate the probability of a series of distinct events all happening, you multiple the probability of each event in the series. Even though each individual event is likely (let's say 67%), the odds that all of them will happen would be 2/3 x 2/3 x 2/3 = 8/27, which is less than 30%.

And, as others have pointed out, we can overtake SF in SoS so you're adding in another opportunity into the equation, however unlikely.

 

[Manwiththeplan]

Where are you guys getting the hope that we can overtake SF? We play to many common opponents and on top of that there are too many division games meaning no matter who wins, we'll add a victory to out total.

Right now our opponents have 123 wins to SF 117.

we are garunteed to pick up 8 wins next week (PHI vs us, NYG vs WSH are worth 2 each; Jax vs Hou, IND vs TEN, MIN vs DET, GB vs CHI are worth 1 each).

SF is also garunteed to pick up 8 wins (ARZ vs them, STL vs SEA are worth 2 each; KC vs Oak, Den vs SD, CAR vs ATL, TB vs NO are worth 1 each).

The games that allow us to overtake them are

TB vs NO (if NO wins, we each pick 1 game, but if TB wins, they pick up 1 and we get 0) and GB vs CHI (if GB wins we each pick up 1 game, but if CHI wins we pick up 1 game and they pick up 0).

 

[SDogo]

Where are you guys getting the hope that we can overtake SF? We play to many common opponents and on top of that there are too many division games meaning no matter who wins, we'll add a victory to out total.

Right now our opponents have 123 wins to SF 117.

we are garunteed to pick up 8 wins next week (PHI vs us, NYG vs WSH are worth 2 each; Jax vs Hou, IND vs TEN, MIN vs DET, GB vs CHI are worth 1 each).

SF is also garunteed to pick up 8 wins (ARZ vs them, STL vs SEA are worth 2 each; KC vs Oak, Den vs SD, CAR vs ATL, TB vs NO are worth 1 each).

The games that allow us to overtake them are

TB vs NO (if NO wins, we each pick 1 game, but if TB wins, they pick up 1 and we get 0) and GB vs CHI (if GB wins we each pick up 1 game, but if CHI wins we pick up 1 game and they pick up 0).

Based on a 17 week schedule the 49ers opponents are 122-114 and the Cowboys opponents are 123-113 as of tonight.

Your not calculating the 49ers week 17 opponent for some reason but are with Dallas.

 

[Manwiththeplan]

Based on a 17 week schedule the 49ers opponents are 122-114 and the Cowboys opponents are 123-113 as of tonight.

Your not calculating the 49ers week 17 opponent for some reason but are with Dallas.

I'm using the spread sheet Hos sent to me, I'll check for errors, but I believe I'm right.

 

[SDogo]

I'm using the spread sheet Hos sent to me, I'll check for errors, but I believe I'm right.

you have an error, trust me

 

[Manwiththeplan]

Just adding up wins

SF's opponents have 117 wins, not sure where you got 122 from

 

[Manwiththeplan]

you have an error, trust me

not seeing it? unless I have some teams records wrong

I have their schedule as

SEA 6-9
NO 10-4
KC 10-5
ATL 12-2
PHI 10-4
OAK 7-8
CAR 2-13
DEN 4-11
STL 7-8
TB 9-6
ARZ 5-10
GB 9-6
SEA 6-9
SD 8-7
STL 7-8
ARZ 5-10

adds up to 117

 

[SDogo]

My bad, error in my spreadsheet!

 

[Manwiththeplan]

Your only calculating the 49ers record through week 16

Sea 6
NO 10
KC 10
Atl 12
Phi 10
Oak 7
Car 2
Den 4
Stl 7
TB 9
Arz 5
GB 9
Sea 6
SD 8
Atl 12 (117 to this point)
Arz 5
TOTAL: 122

u counted ATL twice, which explains the extra wins

 

[SDogo]

not seeing it? unless I have some teams records wrong

I have their schedule as

SEA 6-9
NO 10-4
KC 10-5
ATL 12-2
PHI 10-4
OAK 7-8
CAR 2-13
DEN 4-11
STL 7-8
TB 9-6
ARZ 5-10
GB 9-6
SEA 6-9
SD 8-7
STL 7-8
ARZ 5-10

adds up to 117

Found an error in my spreadsheet with the schedule

 

[MarionBarberThe4th]

How would the 49ers play the Falcons twice?

 

[SDogo]

How would the 49ers play the Falcons twice?

Already found it but thanks

 

[SDogo]

In the end you are right, we can not surpass the loser of this game yet luckily it does not change the percentages as far as draft positions go once I plugged them in or it did but by only a percentage.

 

[MarionBarberThe4th]

Already found it but thanks

Where is Adam to save us?


Even still. W/ Philly at the end our schedule, our SOS will be too high to beat-out SF and Denver

 

[MarionBarberThe4th]

you have an error, trust me

Now we all have to team up and work out this scenario:

1. We lose
2. Buffalo wins
3. Cincy wins


Can we all agree that it should make the order.......

1. Carolina
2. Denver
3. Arizona or SF
4. Dallas

 

[Manwiththeplan]

All in all, I still think 6th is the most likely scenario, which is fine with me. Especially since we'll be 5th in round 2.

I think the top5 shakes out like

CAR- ALuck
DEN- NFairley
CIN- DBowers
BUF- RMallet
SF- PPeterson or ARZ- PPeterson or RQuinn