Right now we have the 6th pick, so...

[Manwiththeplan]

they just announced they will flex the Seattle vs St. Louis game

makes sense, I would go for CHI vs GB, but Fox probably blocked it

 

[Manwiththeplan]

Even still I dont see how the 6th spot is more likely. The Jets cant move out of their spot so Buffalo will win.

If the Jets lose to the Bills, that will likely help Houston pass us. We'll know more on Wednesday mourning, but if PHI beats MIN (very likely) and NO beats ATL (likely since it's in NO) then we have the same SoS. With most teams playing division games in week 17, the 2 games that will effect SoS will be BUF @ NYJ/ CIN @BAL since HOU played the JETS and Ravens and not the Bills or Bengals. While ours will be TB @ NO and ARZ @ SF. Since your scenarion involves ARZ winning (thus us gaining in the SoS department) it seems for us to overtake Buffalo, Hou would pass us.

 

[SDogo]

Texans have a decent shot at passing us. Right now their opponents have 126 wins (0 pending). We have 123 (126 if PHI and NO win, 125 if PHI and ATL win, 125 if MIN and NO win and 124 if MIN and ATL win).

Assuming PHI and NO win, we go into week 17 tied with SoS

Like I stated earlier we are garunteed to pick up 8 wins

PHI vs US
WSH vs NYG
IND vs TEN
Jax vs HOU
GB vs CHI
DET vs MIN

HOU is also garunteed to pick up 8 wins

Jax vs Them
IND vs Ten
PHI vs Dal
NYG vs WSH
Den vs SD
Oak vs KC

for us to remain ahead of them (they would definately take Patrick Peterson) we need the JETS and Ravens to win and the Saints and Cardinals to lose

Right on, that was basically his explanation. Guess they do know a little bit.:laugh2:

 

[SDogo]

for us to remain ahead of them (they would definately take Patrick Peterson) we need the JETS and Ravens to win and the Saints and Cardinals to lose

Interesting enough no matter how I look at it we get screwed either way. If the Jets beat the Bills we wont pass the Bills but will keep the Texans off our *** and if the Bills beat the Jets we will pass then Bills but the Texans are likely to jump us.

I cant figure out a scenario where we can pick ahead of the Texans and Bills.

 

[Manwiththeplan]

Interesting enough no matter how I look at it we get screwed either way. If the Jets beat the Bills we wont pass the Bills but will keep the Texans off our *** and if the Bills beat the Jets we will pass then Bills but the Texans are likely to jump us.

I cant figure out a scenario where we can pick ahead of the Texans and Bills.

Maybe, I made a slight error. Once again assuming PHI beats MIN and NO beats TB, we will have 126 wins, but the Texans will have 127. If the Bills win and Ravens win, the Texans will be at 136 wins. Meaning we need wither TB to beat New Orleans or SF to beat Arizona. So it's still possible.

Personally still think the Jets try to right the ship and we pick 6th, not like Buffalo will be drafting any of the players we want. Maybe in round 2, but doubtful in round 1.

 

[SDogo]

Maybe, I made a slight error. Once again assuming PHI beats MIN and NO beats TB, we will have 126 wins, but the Texans will have 127. If the Bills win and Ravens win, the Texans will be at 136 wins. Meaning we need wither TB to beat New Orleans or SF to beat Arizona. So it's still possible.

Personally still think the Jets try to right the ship and we pick 6th, not like Buffalo will be drafting any of the players we want. Maybe in round 2, but doubtful in round 1.

too many crazy variables.

 

[fanfromvirginia]

too many crazy variables.

When you find yourself enjoying reading other Cowboy fans' calculations of expected future opponent wins to determine the relative probabilities of picking 5th v. 6th in the upcoming draft which might not even occur, you will know you have found your safe place.

 

[newlander]

5th, 6th, or 7th we sure as S$@! should be able to pick up a safety that's better than Ball and/or Sensi. WORST safeties EVER to wear a star: seriously.

 

[BigDave95]

Interesting enough no matter how I look at it we get screwed either way. If the Jets beat the Bills we wont pass the Bills but will keep the Texans off our *** and if the Bills beat the Jets we will pass then Bills but the Texans are likely to jump us.

I cant figure out a scenario where we can pick ahead of the Texans and Bills.

Texans beat the Jags and they have 6 wins. No longer a factor in our tiebreaker.

 

[DFWJC]

http://www.draftcountdown.com/sub/Mock-Draft-A.php

ray: .............

 

[ghst187]

Good point.

I just looked up the current strengths of schedule and Dallas is actually in pretty good shape in terms of draft order. Of the 11 teams with between 3 and 5 wins, there are 3 teams with lower SoS -- Arizona (.462), Washington (.500), and Minnesota (.505). Then comes Dallas at .507. So we could conceivably jump Washington and Minnesota, depending on how the rest of the season plays out. After Dallas there is a pretty good drop off, meaning we probably aren't going to wind up in worse shape in terms of SoS. The teams in worse shape are: Denver (.528), Minnesota (.540), Cleveland (.551), Buffalo and Houston (.553), Detroit (.558), and Cinci (.578).

So if we lose to the Eagles, we'll finish higher in draft order than Cleveland, Houston and Minnesota, pretty much no matter what happens. We'll almost certainly finish higher than Detroit and Buffalo if either of them can manage a win. And we could still finish higher than Washington and Minnesota if neither of them manage a win. On the very off chance that Cinci or Denver manage to win out, we'd finish above them as well.

Everyone keeps talking about SoS, doesn't head to head matter? Cuz we lost head to head against Minny and Arizona.

 

[Manwiththeplan]

Everyone keeps talking about SoS, doesn't head to head matter? Cuz we lost head to head against Minny and Arizona.

head to head apparently is a tie breaker for teams in the same conference, if SoS is tied. NFL draft has always done head to head first.

 

[JD_KaPow]

Everyone keeps talking about SoS, doesn't head to head matter? Cuz we lost head to head against Minny and Arizona.

No, it doesn't matter.

 

[MonsterD]

head to head apparently is a tie breaker for teams in the same conference, if SoS is tied. NFL draft has always done head to head first.

No here is what AdamJT13 was correcting Hostile on

Head to head plays no part of Draft order. It is record then opponent winning %, then coin flip.

Hostile omitted the first divisional and then conference tiebreakers after the SoS and before the coin flip.

So example is us and Commanders tied records, our Sos is tied, then we go to our divisional records, if the Commanders is a better one in the division, then we pick first. Same for us and a likewise team in the same conference. If one is AFC and one NFC and SOs is tied then you go to the flip.

Head to head is not applicable, only in a small way if it happened to be us and the Commanders as just a part of divisional record.

 

[MonsterD]

This article to spells it out

NFL Draft Tiebreaking Rules

By Alan Kirk, eHow Contributor


The NFL Draft is highly anticipated by fans and teams in the NFL alike. The draft represents an opportunity for a team that struggled in the previous season to improve by adding key players. Successful teams have the opportunity to find that one player that might give them a chance to make the Super Bowl. Draft positions are determined by the official draft order, along with trading of draft positions.

1. Significance
2. The NFL Draft is held in April, allowing draft-eligible college athletes to enter the league. The order of the draft is determined based on the records of the teams from the previous year, with the team with the worst record having the first draft pick. When two or more teams tie for the same record, these ties must be analyzed to determine which of the teams involved in the tie has a higher draft spot. The NFL has determined a set of rules to be used to break any ties.Function
3. Ties often occur between teams that make the playoffs and teams that fail to make the playoffs based on the tiebreaking rules for playoff eligibility. The team involved in this tie that did not make the playoffs will be the team that is awarded the higher draft pick. This will not affect the top-ten draft positions in the league, as these teams would not tie for a playoff position.
   
   As an example, let's assume the Baltimore Ravens and the New England Patriots both have an 11-5 record. Based on the playoff tiebreaker rules (which are different than draft tiebreaker rules), the Baltimore Ravens make the playoffs. This would result in the Patriots drafting one spot before the Ravens, because the Patriots did not make the playoffs and the Ravens did.Types
4. For the non-playoff spots, the first step in breaking a tie for draft position is to compare the strength of schedule from the season that was just completed. To determine the strength of schedule, combine the wins and losses of all of the opponents for each team from the previous season. The team that played opponents with the higher winning percentage is awarded the higher draft position. For example, if the combined win percentage of the teams the 5-11 Kansas City Chiefs played was .550, they would draft ahead of the 5-11 St. Louis Rams, who played opponents with an average win percentage of .495 in this example.Considerations
5. If the strength of schedule does not break the tie, the ties are broken based on the relationship between the teams involved. If they are within the same division, the team with the lower winning percentage in that division is awarded the higher draft position in the draft order. If the teams are located within the same conference, then the tie is broken based on record within the conference, with the team that has the lower conference winning percentage getting the higher draft position.
   
   As an example, let's say the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins have the same record at 10-6 and are both in the AFC East Division. The Dolphins won four of six games against their three opponents in the AFC East and the Jets won just three of six. The Jets would draft ahead of the Dolphins in this situation.
   
   An example of two teams in the same conference but different divisions would be the Cleveland Browns and the Oakland Raiders both finishing the season with a 5-11 record. They are in the American Football Conference, but the Browns are in the AFC North and the Raiders are in the AFC West. For this purpose, let's say the Browns went 3-9 against other AFC teams and the Raiders went 4-8 against their AFC opponents. The Browns would draft before the Raiders in this situation.Benefits
6. Creating these rules for tiebreakers in the NFL Draft has, for the most part, avoided the final tiebreaker. If none of the other steps break the tie for the draft position, the tie is settled through a coin toss. An example of when this tiebreaker occurs is when two or more teams are tied with the same record, and their opponents have the same winning percentage. Along with this, the teams are in opposite conferences, making their divisional and conference records irrelevant for breaking the tie.

Read more: NFL Draft Tiebreaking Rules | eHow.com http://www.ehow.com/about_4682468_nfl-draft-tiebreaking-rules.html#ixzz19LsOPocG​

 

[UnoDallas]

If we can't get Petersen - Prince - Fairly

I take Sherrod

Doug Free played well at ROT last year in Columbo's absence and with the top LOT still on the board, why not have the flexibility of 2 athletic young bookends that are interchangeable? Sure makes game-day decisions of whittling down 53 to 45 easier, in the case of deciding on back-up OL in the case of injuries. This is a case where value equals need and is a fine pick by Dallas.

 

[gollum]

For the non-playoff spots, the first step in breaking a tie for draft position is to compare the strength of schedule from the season that was just completed. To determine the strength of schedule, combine the wins and losses of all of the opponents for each team from the previous season. The team that played opponents with the higher winning percentage is awarded the higher draft position. For example, if the combined win percentage of the teams the 5-11 Kansas City Chiefs played was .550, they would draft ahead of the 5-11 St. Louis Rams, who played opponents with an average win percentage of .495 in this example.

This is backwards. See the 2010 draft:
The Commanders and Chiefs had the same record, but Wash had an Opp SOS of .492 and KC has and Opp. SOS of .516. Therefore, Wash picked #4 and KC #5.

 

[MonsterD]

This is backwards. See the 2010 draft:
The Commanders and Chiefs had the same record, but Wash had an Opp SOS of .492 and KC has and Opp. SOS of .516. Therefore, Wash picked #4 and KC #5.

Oh er they did miss that , lol

 

[gollum]

Higher draft position as in lower numerically,n better one in other words, not higher in number.

That's what I was double reading myself, but the article here is wrong in its description.
It looks like we have an about even shot at picking #4(our highest possible) with Houston if we both lose and Buffalo and Cincinnati both win(not very likely). There is no way from my calculations that we will reach #2 or #3.

 

[MarionBarberThe4th]

Go Falcons and Vikes.............