Right now we have the 6th pick, so...

[SDogo]

Where is Adam to save us?


Even still. W/ Philly at the end our schedule, our SOS will be too high to beat-out SF and Denver

that's what we just said after we found the error.

If I could get Adam involved in this it would of be ironed out a long time ago but this program is a process. Although i take pride in knowing he has referenced the web site a few times.

 

[SDogo]

Now we all have to team up and work out this scenario:

1. We lose
2. Buffalo wins
3. Cincy wins


Can we all agree that it should make the order.......

1. Carolina
2. Denver
3. Arizona or SF
4. Dallas

Dont drink and post people, I'm a prime example why!

 

[MarionBarberThe4th]

We would still pick behind the Bengals their SOS is .580 ours is .521

That means we get the better pick man.

 

[SDogo]

That means we get the better pick man.

holy **** I'm drunk

****ing ignore me.............i'm going to bed

 

[MarionBarberThe4th]

holy **** I'm drunk

****ing ignore me.............i'm going to bed

You are in no state for these kind of calculations :laugh2:

Erase that thread man. We can easily get #4

 

[SDogo]

You are in no state for these kind of calculations :laugh2:

Erase that thread man. We can easily get #4

Here, Adam swears by these guys

http://playoffstatus.com/nfl/nfldraftorder.html

Their calculations say the 4th is just as much a pipe dream as mine but on paper I'm with you, it's looks possible. My mind if fried but if Adam gives these guys the legit approval then I'm confident my work is just on target.

I just dont get why it looks so different when your sitting there looking at it on paper...............

 

[MarionBarberThe4th]

That doesnt appear to take into account the actual games being played next week. The 2 key games are way in our favor.

And once tied w/ the Bengals and Bills even they have us w/ the edge in SOS

 

[SDogo]

That doesnt appear to take into account the actual games being played next week. The 2 key games are way in our favor.

And once tied w/ the Bengals and Bills even they have us w/ the edge in SOS

my numbers vary some from theirs and perhaps that's why. I take into account all 17 games and maybe you are correct but I like using them as a bench mark only because Adam pimps them out so I figure they must be somewhat legit.

Ok seriously..............I'm done. There are 2 monitors and I think I just swallowed my tongue..............

 

[Manwiththeplan]

Actually, it's not hard at all. It's basic statistics (probability). To calculate the probability of a series of distinct events all happening, you multiple the probability of each event in the series. Even though each individual event is likely (let's say 67%), the odds that all of them will happen would be 2/3 x 2/3 x 2/3 = 8/27, which is less than 30%.

And, as others have pointed out, we can overtake SF in SoS so you're adding in another opportunity into the equation, however unlikely.

technically speaking, we can't overtake Denver so you can eliminate them from the equation. Then you also have to realize probabliity and statistics don't work the same in football as something with little or no vairables. Betting that you could roll a 1-4 three times on seperate dice rolls (same probability you listed) is a bad bet, but with football their's no way to calculate certain aspects.

 

[Manwiththeplan]

We cannot hop over Denver (haven't looked it up, but very unlikely)

Baltimore is still in a division race and at home against the Bengals, they will win.

We may get lucky with Buffalo beating the Jets, but having lost 3 out of their last 4, they will not want to lose their final game @ home, so saying we can easily get to the 4th spot is wrong and the 6th is the most likely scenario

 

[MarionBarberThe4th]

We cannot hop over Denver (haven't looked it up, but very unlikely)

Baltimore is still in a division race and at home against the Bengals, they will win.

We may get lucky with Buffalo beating the Jets, but having lost 3 out of their last 4, they will not want to lose their final game @ home, so saying we can easily get to the 4th spot is wrong and the 6th is the most likely scenario

Word will travel to them that the Steelers beat up on the Browns, locking them into the WC, and they will not risk injury

 

[fanfromvirginia]

holy **** I'm drunk

****ing ignore me.............i'm going to bed

You should not drink and calculate.

 

[fanfromvirginia]

technically speaking, we can't overtake Denver so you can eliminate them from the equation. Then you also have to realize probabliity and statistics don't work the same in football as something with little or no vairables. Betting that you could roll a 1-4 three times on seperate dice rolls (same probability you listed) is a bad bet, but with football their's no way to calculate certain aspects.

Good point on Denver and, apparently, SF's not doable either so the number of events is pretty low. That helps explain why SDogo's got the chance of landing at 6 at 67%.

As for football and statistics, yeah, you have to guess at the probabilities but the original point still stands -- with 3 separate events, you have to get up to roughly 80% probability before you would break even.

I still think we've got a half decent shot at getting the 5th pick but 6 looks much more likely (given a loss to Philadelphia).

 

[Manwiththeplan]

Word will travel to them that the Steelers beat up on the Browns, locking them into the WC, and they will not risk injury

Both are 1 o'clock games......

http://www.nfl.com/schedules?seasonType=REG#Week

 

[MarionBarberThe4th]

Both are 1 o'clock games......

http://www.nfl.com/schedules?seasonType=REG#Week

Theyre going to move some games around.

Even still I dont see how the 6th spot is more likely. The Jets cant move out of their spot so Buffalo will win.

1. Car
2. Den
3. Ari/Sf
4. Lets say Cincy loses this time
5. ?

 

[SDogo]

That doesnt appear to take into account the actual games being played next week. The 2 key games are way in our favor.

And once tied w/ the Bengals and Bills even they have us w/ the edge in SOS

Ok, I talked to Scott at that site and he stated that based on the remaining schedule, like opponents and probability of wins and losses (which I have an issue using because you never know what's going to happen) Dallas has a 1% chance of the 4th pick because the Texans if they lose actually have a chance to drop their SOS to .508 while the lowest we can go is .515.

So basically he is saying if we both lose the Texans schedule favor them for the tie breaker.

Tomorrow when I'm sober I will need to find this scenario.

 

[fanfromvirginia]

Theyre going to move some games around.

Even still I dont see how the 6th spot is more likely. The Jets cant move out of their spot so Buffalo will win.

1. Car
2. Den
3. Ari/Sf
4. Lets say Cincy loses this time
5. ?

If Buffalo wins and Cincy loses then I think it'd likely be:

1. Car
2. Den
3. Cincy
4. Ari/SF
5. Dallas

 

[Manwiththeplan]

Theyre going to move some games around.

Even still I dont see how the 6th spot is more likely. The Jets cant move out of their spot so Buffalo will win.

1. Car
2. Den
3. Ari/Sf
4. Lets say Cincy loses this time
5. ?

2 things, they will flex 1 game to sunday night and it's unlikely to be BAL vs CIN. Just off the top of my head, they will likely flex CHI vs GB. CHI fights for a bye, GB fights for playoffs.

2nd, you assume far to much with the Jets. If they had been playing better, yeah I think they rest, but having lost 3 of their last 4, I won't believe he's resting till he says it or does it.

 

[SDogo]

2 things, they will flex 1 game to sunday night and it's unlikely to be BAL vs CIN. Just off the top of my head, they will likely flex CHI vs GB. CHI fights for a bye, GB fights for playoffs.

2nd, you assume far to much with the Jets. If they had been playing better, yeah I think they rest, but having lost 3 of their last 4, I won't believe he's resting till he says it or does it.

they just announced they will flex the Seattle vs St. Louis game

 

[Manwiththeplan]

Texans have a decent shot at passing us. Right now their opponents have 126 wins (0 pending). We have 123 (126 if PHI and NO win, 125 if PHI and ATL win, 125 if MIN and NO win and 124 if MIN and ATL win).

Assuming PHI and NO win, we go into week 17 tied with SoS

Like I stated earlier we are garunteed to pick up 8 wins

PHI vs US
WSH vs NYG
IND vs TEN
Jax vs HOU
GB vs CHI
DET vs MIN

HOU is also garunteed to pick up 8 wins

Jax vs Them
IND vs Ten
PHI vs Dal
NYG vs WSH
Den vs SD
Oak vs KC

for us to remain ahead of them (they would definately take Patrick Peterson) we need the JETS and Ravens to win and the Saints and Cardinals to lose