Rookie QB Career Projections - Prescott fans may like this

[DFWJC]

I came across an article discussing a quantified approach to projecting NFL QBs career success rates.
Football Outsiders call it the QBASE method
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2016/qbase-2016

Prescott fans (and Cowboys' fans now by extension) ) may especially like it, as it certainly places his odds significantly better than Lynch or Cook.

Again, all disclaimers to this type of stuff applies, but I just thought some of you may want to check it out.

These are odds of where they will be in 3-5 years on average:

GOFF
Bust________________28.3%
Adequate Starter______34.1%
Upper Tier ___________23.5%
Elite________________14.2%

WENTZ
Bust________________61.9%
Adequate Starter______24.3%
Upper Tier __________10.0%
Elite________________3.8%

LYNCH
Bust________________67.2%
Adequate Starter______21.3%
Upper Tier ___________8.7%
Elite________________2.9%

COOK
Bust________________77.7%
Adequate Starter______15.2%
Upper Tier ___________5.7%
Elite________________1.5%

HACKENBERG
Bust________________80.1%
Adequate Starter______13.6%
Upper Tier ___________10.1%
Elite________________1.2%

PRESCOTT
Bust________________52.9%
Adequate Starter______26.6%
Upper Tier __________12.8%
Elite________________5.7%

 

[Spectre]

Good post. If numbers are accurate, this predicts him as the 2nd best qb in the draft- over Wentz! I like the pick. Think this guy could be a really good young backup and fill-in for Romo (for a change). Dual-threat is nice, in spot duty, too.

 

[Reality]

The one big advantage that Prescott will have is that he can sit on the bench and learn for the next 2-4 years while getting in some occasional experience if/when Tony misses any play time due to injuries. The lack of pressure to be the starter immediately (well, other than by fans who will demand it after every Romo interception) will help reduce the chance of him becoming a bust because he will have time to learn, refine his skills and get used to the speed of the NFL.

 

[speedkilz88]

The one big advantage that Prescott will have is that he can sit on the bench and learn for the next 2-4 years while getting in some occasional experience if/when Tony misses any play time due to injuries. The lack of pressure to be the starter immediately (well, other than by fans who will demand it after every Romo interception) will help reduce the chance of him becoming a bust because he will have time to learn, refine his skills and get used to the speed of the NFL.

Yeah, the grooming like Romo was afforded at least gives him a chance.

 

[Sydla]

That analysis is nice but the reality is Prescott will never more anything more than a backup QB. Going further, I wouldn't use his drafting as an excuse to pass up on a higher ceiling guy in the next draft or two if the opportunity presents itself. Like for example, if next year, we are picking in the 20s and that draft turns into a strong QB draft with a bunch of underclassmen having great college seasons and declaring, I wouldn't pass on a QB that slides to use because we have Prescott.

 

[tyke1doe]

I'm not a huge Dak fan, but I do think he's a smart quarterback. And I felt that any quarterback (from this draft) who came to Dallas and had the opportunity to sit behind Romo would be better off in the long run.
Some quarterbacks just need two to three years sitting behind a veteran.
I consider Dak a slightly better version of Tim Tebow. He's a more accurate passer than Tebow, slightly less of a leader than Tebow (although Dak is a great leader), but he seems to prefer his feet more than his arm.
He has the size - he's bigger than Romo - and I believe he'll have the patience.
He is in the right position, assuming Wilson and company can teach him properly. He may not be a franchise quarterback, but he could turn out to be an Alex Smith-type.

 

[speedkilz88]

That analysis is nice but the reality is Prescott will never more anything more than a backup QB. Going further, I wouldn't use his drafting as an excuse to pass up on a higher ceiling guy in the next draft or two if the opportunity presents itself. Like for example, if next year, we are picking in the 20s and that draft turns into a strong QB draft with a bunch of underclassmen having great college seasons and declaring, I wouldn't pass on a QB that slides to use because we have Prescott.

 

[JBell]

That analysis is nice but the reality is Prescott will never more anything more than a backup QB. Going further, I wouldn't use his drafting as an excuse to pass up on a higher ceiling guy in the next draft or two if the opportunity presents itself. Like for example, if next year, we are picking in the 20s and that draft turns into a strong QB draft with a bunch of underclassmen having great college seasons and declaring, I wouldn't pass on a QB that slides to use because we have Prescott.

Mindblowing that people throw out statements like this with nothing to back it up.

He made significant improvement over the course of his college career. The completion percentage, the TD/INT ratio, what he has between the ears....He hasn't reached his ceiling, he's 22 lol.

 

[ThreeandOut]

Prescott was also the only QB that hit all 7 of the Parcel's criteria for drafting a QB.

 

[Denim Chicken]

That analysis is nice but the reality is Prescott will never more anything more than a backup QB. Going further, I wouldn't use his drafting as an excuse to pass up on a higher ceiling guy in the next draft or two if the opportunity presents itself. Like for example, if next year, we are picking in the 20s and that draft turns into a strong QB draft with a bunch of underclassmen having great college seasons and declaring, I wouldn't pass on a QB that slides to use because we have Prescott.

While it's not likely Prescott will be a starter, it is also not impossible. Many people like to speak in absolutes about his chances, but the reality is no one knows how his development will progress. I agree that he should not inhibit another QB pick.

 

[speedkilz88]

While it's not likely Prescott will be a starter, it is also not impossible. Many people like to speak in absolutes about his chances, but the reality is no one knows how his development will progress. I agree that he should not inhibit another QB pick.

Yeah, not like anyone thought Tom Brady or Tony Romo would amount to anything. Someone described it as buying a lottery ticket.

 

[gimmesix]

That analysis is nice but the reality is Prescott will never more anything more than a backup QB. Going further, I wouldn't use his drafting as an excuse to pass up on a higher ceiling guy in the next draft or two if the opportunity presents itself. Like for example, if next year, we are picking in the 20s and that draft turns into a strong QB draft with a bunch of underclassmen having great college seasons and declaring, I wouldn't pass on a QB that slides to use because we have Prescott.

The only thing I can agree with is that Dallas shouldn't pass on drafting a QB again next year. If Prescott shows promise, elevate him to the backup, show Moore the door and let the new draft pick fill the developmental role. Rinse and repeat the next year until Romo is done. (I also agree that if a QB is there in the first when we're drafting, that you get the guy ... if both turn out to be players, then you can trade one for picks.)

If we haven't found a QB using that method by the time Romo leaves that's when we have to go all in to put ourselves in position to draft one.

 

[morasp]

Mark May on ESPN didn't like Wentz and Goff so since we were going to take one I'm glad it was after they picked some defensive players. Look at what the Rams and Eagles gave up to get them. I'm more comfortable this season than last when we had We Done.

 

[Sydla]

Mindblowing that people throw out statements like this with nothing to back it up.

He made significant improvement over the course of his college career. The completion percentage, the TD/INT ratio, what he has between the ears....He hasn't reached his ceiling, he's 22 lol.

LOL, nothing to back it up?

How about history? The odds of a 4th round QB being anything more than a solid backup QB is long. Really long.

You can cite all the stats you want but there have been other QBs with great stats taken in the 3rd, 4th, 5th rounds who largely never end up cutting it. That's just the reality of the situation. It's taking emotion out of the equation here and just looking at hard facts.

The odds of a 4th round QB being a top level, franchise QB are long. Really long.

 

[Sydla]

While it's not likely Prescott will be a starter, it is also not impossible. Many people like to speak in absolutes about his chances, but the reality is no one knows how his development will progress. I agree that he should not inhibit another QB pick.

FWIW, there was a typo in my post. That first sentence is missing two words............... It should have read, ".... reality is Prescott will likely never be more than a backup................"

Does he have a chance to be more than that? Of course. But the odds are largely stacked against him or any 4th round QB. Given that, I am not opposed to Dallas going QB again in one of the next two drafts.

 

[zrinkill]

Mindblowing that people throw out statements like this with nothing to back it up.

Not for that guy.

 

[Vinnie2u]

If we had the chance we would of drafted Goff, Wentz or Lynch. Dak was the consolation prize. Sometimes the wrong move turns out to be the right move.

 

[Sydla]

And FWIW, here are the 4th round QBs taken between 1994 and 2013:

Good (starter material) - Cousins, Brooks
Blah (possibly starter but likely backup) - Orton, McNown, Garrard
Too soon - Landry Jones
Ewwww - Tyler Wilson, Ryan Nassib, Matt Barkley, Danny Kanell, Pat Barnes, Stefan LaFors, Rohan Davey, Stephen McGee, Chad May, Steve Stenstrom, Chris Weinke, Mike Kafka, Dave Barr, Danny Wuerffel, Jesse Palmer, Joe Germaine, Jeff Lewis, Doug Nussmeier, Perry Klein, Seneca Wallace, Sage Rosenfels, Rob Johnson.

 

[zrinkill]

these guys started last year in the NFL

Tony Romo (undrafted)
Tom Brady (round 6)
Ryan Fitzpatrick ( round7)
Russell Wilson (round 3)
Zach Mettenberger (round 6)
Kirk Cousins ( round 4)
Brian Hoyer (undrafted)
Tyrod Taylor (round6)

 

[Yakuza Rich]

I don't hate Prescott, but I just wouldn't bank on a projected 4th round pick, I do like a guy that played against tough competition with an inferior offensive unit around him and had some success. I also like his hand size (10-7/8). I've been a big proponent of hand size in a QB since Ken Anderson (huge hands, great QB, especially in cold conditions) and Duante Culpepper (infinitely more talented than Anderson, but extremely fumble prone with small hands).

But, that's why I liked Lynch and I don't think QBASE accounts for....Lynch's teammates were god awful. I counted 8 drops against Temple and started to lose count on the drops against Auburn. He did play against some real quality defenses and performed well, but his teammates ineptitude hurt his numbers.

And in reality, it's about the development of QB's by the coaching staff and in reality the organization that is more important than anything. Guys like Tim Couch failed because they didn't have the organization that could help develop them. Guys like Donovan McNabb succeed because they had a coach and organization that knew how to develop QB's.

Phil Simms looked like a bust until Parcells became the HC. Hostetler was playing special teams so he could have a job and Parcells turned him into a viable QB. Bledsoe was far better under Parcells than he was under Carroll and Belichick. Testaverde was long considered an NFL bust and then was All-World under Parcells with the Jets. Hell, Parcells got respectable seasons out of Ray Lucas and Quincy Carter and Romo was a UDFA.

I won't discount some of the analysis because there is some correlation between completion % and games started in college to success in the NFL. But I think for the QB position the organization and coaching staff's ability to develop QB's plays a very large role. It's not like a D-Lineman where athleticism and size are important because most players can't succeed unless they have it in spades.





YR