Rookie QB Career Projections - Prescott fans may like this

[Cowboyz88]

No team would ever do that. McGee? After they drafted McGee Romo was in his prime, there was no reason to draft a qb high.

Patriots, Steelers and Packer say hi.

 

[Denim Chicken]

What would be nice is if Romo's healthy all season, but we get some flashes from Dak in pre-season and limited snaps, and then trade him for a high pick.

 

[dallasdave]

I came across an article discussing a quantified approach to projecting NFL QBs career success rates.
Football Outsiders call it the QBASE method
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2016/qbase-2016

Prescott fans (and Cowboys' fans now by extension) ) may especially like it, as it certainly places his odds significantly better than Lynch or Cook.

Again, all disclaimers to this type of stuff applies, but I just thought some of you may want to check it out.

These are odds of where they will be in 3-5 years on average:

GOFF
Bust________________28.3%
Adequate Starter______34.1%
Upper Tier ___________23.5%
Elite________________14.2%

WENTZ
Bust________________61.9%
Adequate Starter______24.3%
Upper Tier __________10.0%
Elite________________3.8%

LYNCH
Bust________________67.2%
Adequate Starter______21.3%
Upper Tier ___________8.7%
Elite________________2.9%

COOK
Bust________________77.7%
Adequate Starter______15.2%
Upper Tier ___________5.7%
Elite________________1.5%

HACKENBERG
Bust________________80.1%
Adequate Starter______13.6%
Upper Tier ___________10.1%
Elite________________1.2%

PRESCOTT
Bust________________52.9%
Adequate Starter______26.6%
Upper Tier __________12.8%
Elite________________5.7%

Thanks for posting this, I like the pick by the way !!!

 

[jnday]

LOL, nothing to back it up?

How about history? The odds of a 4th round QB being anything more than a solid backup QB is long. Really long.

You can cite all the stats you want but there have been other QBs with great stats taken in the 3rd, 4th, 5th rounds who largely never end up cutting it. That's just the reality of the situation. It's taking emotion out of the equation here and just looking at hard facts.

The odds of a 4th round QB being a top level, franchise QB are long. Really long.

There is a reason that he was s 4th round pick. His talent is limited. I am amazed that the minute that Dallas drafted him, posters was already building him up to be more than what he is. I wish Dallas would have used the pick elsewhere. He will be used as a reason that they will not draft another QB for a few more years. Dallas has not been very good about using picks on QBs and I expect that to continue .

 

[Sydla]

There is a reason that he was s 4th round pick. His talent is limited. I am amazed that the minute that Dallas drafted him, posters was already building him up to be more than what he is. I wish Dallas would have used the pick elsewhere. He will be used as a reason that they will not draft another QB for a few more years. Dallas has not been very good about using picks on QBs and I expect that to continue .

He wasn't my favorite QB either but at that point, I can live with it. Maybe it's the fact we got Tapper earlier in the fourth and I was big on him leading up to the draft. After that, it was just a dart to a dart board situation in a draft.

Hopefully the kid surprises.

 

[speedkilz88]

Patriots, Steelers and Packer say hi.

what are you babbling about?

 

[DBOY3141]

Patriots, Steelers and Packer say hi.

Steelers aren't a good example. Since drafting Ben(2004), they have drafted 3 QB's. 06-Jacobs, 5th round, 08-Dixon, 5th round, 13-Jones, 4th round. Since 04, Cowboys have drafted two, 09-McGee-4th round, 16-Prescott 4th round. So 1QB is not that big of a difference to me.

 

[speedkilz88]

Steelers aren't a good example. Since drafting Ben(2004), they have drafted 3 QB's. 06-Jacobs, 5th round, 08-Dixon, 5th round, 13-Jones, 4th round. Since 04, Cowboys have drafted two, 09-McGee-4th round, 16-Prescott 4th round. So 1QB is not that big of a difference to me.

And with the Packers the only high pick was Aaron Rodgers and that was when Favre was in his late 30s like Romo is now. The highest pick the patriots have used was recently on Garappolo and again Tom Brady is in his late 30s.

 

[jnday]

Nobody knows anything about what he will become at this point. He has just as much chance to become a good starting QB as he does to be a total bust. Here is what we do know. He is on an upward trajectory as he improved greatly in the past year, everyone agrees he has the leadership and intangibles you look for in a QB, he is very athletic for a QB, he has good size for the position, he has some warts and flaws that need to be worked on, and he didn't cost very much draft capital to acquire. I just don't see how anyone can feel the need to badmouth him and totally write him off at this point. Let's see him play and hopefully enjoy watching him improve.

No, he doesn't have just as much chance of becoming a starting quality QB as a bust. The odds are that he doesn't stay around more than a couple of years. He may become one of these backups that hangs around the league but never plays or threatens a starter.

 

[DBOY3141]

And with the Packers the only high pick was Aaron Rodgers and that was when Favre was in his late 30s like Romo is now. The highest pick the patriots have used was recently on Garappolo and again Tom Brady is in his late 30s.

Pack have drafted 5 since Rodgers in 05. Highest was Brohm in 2008 (2nd). 2-7th, 1-6th, 1-5th(Hundley).

 

[Cowboyz88]

Steelers aren't a good example. Since drafting Ben(2004), they have drafted 3 QB's. 06-Jacobs, 5th round, 08-Dixon, 5th round, 13-Jones, 4th round. Since 04, Cowboys have drafted two, 09-McGee-4th round, 16-Prescott 4th round. So 1QB is not that big of a difference to me.

I'm not completely disagreeing.

Teams draft QBs, even when they have a stud. IMO, it's the wise thing to do.

We used to do it all the time (under Landry), and we really haven't for some time. Heck, Johnson took Walsh the year after he spent the #1 pick on Aikman. The Skins took Cousins in the same draft at Griffin.

Basically, I'm fine with the selection of Dak. I just hope we don't stop looking, unless he proves himself to be a real stud.

 

[DBOY3141]

I'm not completely disagreeing.

Teams draft QBs, even when they have a stud. IMO, it's the wise thing to do.

We used to do it all the time (under Landry), and we really haven't for some time. Heck, Johnson took Walsh the year after he spent the #1 pick on Aikman. The Skins took Cousins in the same draft at Griffin.

Basically, I'm fine with the selection of Dak. I just hope we don't stop looking, unless he proves himself to be a real stud.

Drafting QB's is wise, just have to weigh what you have and what round you want to go. I can see them drafting another next year as well, which would be smart.

 

[Clove]

I think, after watching his highlights, mainly the one highlight where they showed the entire game, that he wants to pass the ball. His arm-strength didn't look all that impressive, but he did get the ball there. His accuracy looked pretty good to me, unless I was missing something. The next 2 or 3 years are VERY VERY important to actually finding a legit starter, a legit Super Star talent at the QB position.

I think, and I'm not so sure at the moment where Prescott's sealing is, but he should be a fantastic back up QB. Even if he makes a great starter, we should still look for a defined starter material QB and allow them to battle it out.

 

[Cowboys22]

No, he doesn't have just as much chance of becoming a starting quality QB as a bust. The odds are that he doesn't stay around more than a couple of years. He may become one of these backups that hangs around the league but never plays or threatens a starter.

Each individual is different. What other mid to late round QBs have done before him have no bearing on what he does. He has the talent to succeed so it's up to him to do the work and make plays. That's why I say right now it could go either way.

 

[BlindFaith]

Sweet. Now list for me all the 3rd through UDFA QBs that didn't make it and you'll see that the 7 guys you listed are such a small percentage and that the reality is that hit rate on guys fitting that criteria is miniscule. That's the point. The reality is that history shows that it's gonna be pretty unlikely (yes, not impossible) that Prescott amounts to much more than just a backup at best.

And given that, the Cowboys wouldn't be wrong in taking another QB, higher in the draft, if the opportunity presents itself in the next couple of drafts.

I hope to hell Prescott is the next Russell Wilson. Shoot, I hope he's better than Russell Wilson. But I also am not blind to the fact that the odds of that happening are really, really low.

Yes, picking a QB in the first or second round results in a higher success rate vs picking one after. Basic common sense really applies there as you SHOULD be drafting the better players.

No one is anointing Dak as a future starter. He will come in and compete, hopefully get better and hopefully turn into something. If the plan is to have Romo play here another 4-5 years, if Dak can at the very least turn into a competent backup it will have been worth the pick. If he turns into more than that, then great.

Seems all of your posts are pretty negative. You give off bad mojo. Try being positive for a change, you might like yourself better.

 

[Sydla]

Yes, picking a QB in the first or second round results in a higher success rate vs picking one after. Basic common sense really applies there as you SHOULD be drafting the better players.

No one is anointing Dak as a future starter. He will come in and compete, hopefully get better and hopefully turn into something. If the plan is to have Romo play here another 4-5 years, if Dak can at the very least turn into a competent backup it will have been worth the pick. If he turns into more than that, then great.

Seems all of your posts are pretty negative. You give off bad mojo. Try being positive for a change, you might like yourself better.

Where did I say anything of what you uttered in the 2nd paragraph? All I said is that the reality is the odds are stacked against Prescott (or any QB for that matter taken in the later rounds). Do you disagree with that?

And your last paragraph is bogus. I didn't like the Elliott pick because I don't think you take a TB at 4 regardless of how good he might be (and Elliott is a good player). But I was quite happy with guys like Collins and Tapper and Smith, even though he's a pretty big risk. I am in another thread here defending Smith against those claiming he's not as good as Jack. Collins is a legit high ceiling guy at the 3 tech. Tapper was a pet cat of mine.

 

[Ken]

That analysis is nice but the reality is Prescott will never more anything more than a backup QB. Going further, I wouldn't use his drafting as an excuse to pass up on a higher ceiling guy in the next draft or two if the opportunity presents itself. Like for example, if next year, we are picking in the 20s and that draft turns into a strong QB draft with a bunch of underclassmen having great college seasons and declaring, I wouldn't pass on a QB that slides to use because we have Prescott.

I disagree with your simplistic analysis vehemently.

I would love to hear why you think he cannot be a viable starting QB here. Is it his off the chats leadership or great athletisicm that draws you to this conclusion, or was it his ability to elevate Miss. St. to prominent status that you draw this conclusion?

 

[Sydla]

I disagree with your simplistic analysis vehemently.

I would love to hear why you think he cannot be a viable starting QB here. Is it his off the chats leadership or great athletisicm that draws you to this conclusion, or was it his ability to elevate Miss. St. to prominent status that you draw this conclusion?

Read the thread. My analysis isn't simplistic. The reality is 4th round QBs have a very low success rate over the last 20 years. And there have been some pretty successful college QBs taken in the 4th too. Could he be successful, sure? But the odds are not in his favor.

 

[bsheeern]

FWIW, there was a typo in my post. That first sentence is missing two words............... It should have read, ".... reality is Prescott will likely never be more than a backup................"

Does he have a chance to be more than that? Of course. But the odds are largely stacked against him or any 4th round QB. Given that, I am not opposed to Dallas going QB again in one of the next two drafts.

Well those are two Very Big words that you Forgot.
Makes you seem you are speaking in absolutes vs probabilities.

 

[Common Sense]

Read the thread. My analysis isn't simplistic. The reality is 4th round QBs have a very low success rate over the last 20 years. And there have been some pretty successful college QBs taken in the 4th too. Could he be successful, sure? But the odds are not in his favor.

Keep in mind that this is a team that has struggled at the backup QB position as well. If Prescott develops into a cheap, competent backup, that's a home run pick in the 4th round even if he never starts a game aside from injury.

The team always talks about not wanting to spend $4M on a backup QB, but the only alternative is to draft them or to keep scraping Brandon Weedens off the scrap heap, and we saw how that turned out.

Draft them, use them for a few years. Don't see a long term future? Try to flip them for a pick or hope that a bidding war in FA nets you a comp pick. Quarterbacks are the most valuable commodity in the NFL. If you can develop adequate backup QBs on rookie contracts, that's invaluable protection in case of injury, saves you literally millions per year against the salary cap, and affords you the opportunity to acquire more draft capital if you're smart / lucky enough.