Rookie QB Career Projections - Prescott fans may like this

[bayeslife]

Obviously every situation is different and the odds are against Dak, but there's no reason to think he should just be counted as a dud immediately.

 

[dogunwo]

I will get blasted for this........I think Prescott's ceiling is Russell Wilson. Athletic, good decision making, best with a solid team around him, not an elite QB though. Do we trust the front office to put him in that kind of situation?

 

[BlindFaith]

Where did I say anything of what you uttered in the 2nd paragraph? All I said is that the reality is the odds are stacked against Prescott (or any QB for that matter taken in the later rounds). Do you disagree with that?

And your last paragraph is bogus. I didn't like the Elliott pick because I don't think you take a TB at 4 regardless of how good he might be (and Elliott is a good player). But I was quite happy with guys like Collins and Tapper and Smith, even though he's a pretty big risk. I am in another thread here defending Smith against those claiming he's not as good as Jack. Collins is a legit high ceiling guy at the 3 tech. Tapper was a pet cat of mine.

That analysis is nice but the reality is Prescott will never more anything more than a backup QB. - Sydla

That is negative. You have no idea. None of us do. Are the odds against him? Probably.

So fine, you hate him. To me he's a guy with upside and potential starter ability. And we basically used a 5th round pick on him. Not really a guy or draft pick for that matter that warrants the amount of disdain really, if you ask me. Now, if we had picked him in the second round and some were projecting, then yes. To me it was a good value pick.

 

[Denim Chicken]

Yes, picking a QB in the first or second round results in a higher success rate vs picking one after.

Dang, should have drafted Dak at #4 then.

 

[Sydla]

That analysis is nice but the reality is Prescott will never more anything more than a backup QB. - Sydla

That is negative. You have no idea. None of us do. Are the odds against him? Probably.

So fine, you hate him. To me he's a guy with upside and potential starter ability. And we basically used a 5th round pick on him. Not really a guy or draft pick for that matter that warrants the amount of disdain really, if you ask me. Now, if we had picked him in the second round and some were projecting, then yes. To me it was a good value pick.

You must have missed my follow up post where I said there was a typo in the original post.

And LOL at me hating him. Geezus, some of you read what you want to read. Hahahahaha. It's like if you aren't blowing some up a kid's butt apparently you hate him.

My point was this. It's unlikely Prescott becomes a good starting QB. It's nothing against him personally. It's simply looking at the history of 4th round QBs and seeing that the odds of a guy in that range of the draft succeeding are very low. Yes he's got potential, he's got some skill, he's athletic, but he's not the only guy picked where he was that had skills. Therefore, I don't think the Cowboys should necessarily ignore QB in the next two drafts if the opportunity to take a franchise QB is available to them early in the draft.

 

[Sydla]

Keep in mind that this is a team that has struggled at the backup QB position as well. If Prescott develops into a cheap, competent backup, that's a home run pick in the 4th round even if he never starts a game aside from injury.

The team always talks about not wanting to spend $4M on a backup QB, but the only alternative is to draft them or to keep scraping Brandon Weedens off the scrap heap, and we saw how that turned out.

Draft them, use them for a few years. Don't see a long term future? Try to flip them for a pick or hope that a bidding war in FA nets you a comp pick. Quarterbacks are the most valuable commodity in the NFL. If you can develop adequate backup QBs on rookie contracts, that's invaluable protection in case of injury, saves you literally millions per year against the salary cap, and affords you the opportunity to acquire more draft capital if you're smart / lucky enough.

Absolutely. If he works out, even as a backup, there's a benefit to that and helps the Cowboys.

All I am saying is that I wouldn't shut down the possibility of taking a QB higher in the next two drafts if an opportunity presents itself simply because we now have Prescott.

 

[Common Sense]

Absolutely. If he works out, even as a backup, there's a benefit to that and helps the Cowboys.

All I am saying is that I wouldn't shut down the possibility of taking a QB higher in the next two drafts if an opportunity presents itself simply because we now have Prescott.

Definitely not. That would be crazy.

 

[Jarv]

Where did I say anything of what you uttered in the 2nd paragraph? All I said is that the reality is the odds are stacked against Prescott (or any QB for that matter taken in the later rounds). Do you disagree with that?

And your last paragraph is bogus. I didn't like the Elliott pick because I don't think you take a TB at 4 regardless of how good he might be (and Elliott is a good player). But I was quite happy with guys like Collins and Tapper and Smith, even though he's a pretty big risk. I am in another thread here defending Smith against those claiming he's not as good as Jack. Collins is a legit high ceiling guy at the 3 tech. Tapper was a pet cat of mine.

Just out of curiosity, what other position (besides kicker/punter/STs) would you not take BPA at as the 4th pick? Is it just a RB?

 

[Sydla]

Just out of curiosity, what other position (besides kicker/punter/STs) would you not take BPA at as the 4th pick? Is it just a RB?

K, P.............. that's about it. LOL. I also probably wouldn't take a pure SAM LB at 4 either. Or a guy that's going to be a SS solely in the league.

The stats show that TB has the shortest shelf life of any positional player in the NFL. Cowboys invested a ton of picks and soon to be cash in their OL so they wouldn't then have to spend top assets and cash to put together a great running game. I think a TB at 4 was unnecessary given the OL we have in place and other needs that could have been address by taking Ramsey at 4 or even better, trading that pick to acquire more picks.

Just my opinion.

 

[DandyDon52]

I don't hate Prescott, but I just wouldn't bank on a projected 4th round pick, I do like a guy that played against tough competition with an inferior offensive unit around him and had some success. I also like his hand size (10-7/8). I've been a big proponent of hand size in a QB since Ken Anderson (huge hands, great QB, especially in cold conditions) and Duante Culpepper (infinitely more talented than Anderson, but extremely fumble prone with small hands).

But, that's why I liked Lynch and I don't think QBASE accounts for....Lynch's teammates were god awful. I counted 8 drops against Temple and started to lose count on the drops against Auburn. He did play against some real quality defenses and performed well, but his teammates ineptitude hurt his numbers.

And in reality, it's about the development of QB's by the coaching staff and in reality the organization that is more important than anything. Guys like Tim Couch failed because they didn't have the organization that could help develop them. Guys like Donovan McNabb succeed because they had a coach and organization that knew how to develop QB's.

Phil Simms looked like a bust until Parcells became the HC. Hostetler was playing special teams so he could have a job and Parcells turned him into a viable QB. Bledsoe was far better under Parcells than he was under Carroll and Belichick. Testaverde was long considered an NFL bust and then was All-World under Parcells with the Jets. Hell, Parcells got respectable seasons out of Ray Lucas and Quincy Carter and Romo was a UDFA.

I won't discount some of the analysis because there is some correlation between completion % and games started in college to success in the NFL. But I think for the QB position the organization and coaching staff's ability to develop QB's plays a very large role. It's not like a D-Lineman where athleticism and size are important because most players can't succeed unless they have it in spades.





YR

Good post, add team mates and offensive scheme to that also.
Some coaches want to plug in a QB , rather than design a system for them, that suits their talents.

Here in dallas it will be plug and play lol.

 

[CWR]

That analysis is nice but the reality is Prescott will never more anything more than a backup QB. Going further, I wouldn't use his drafting as an excuse to pass up on a higher ceiling guy in the next draft or two if the opportunity presents itself. Like for example, if next year, we are picking in the 20s and that draft turns into a strong QB draft with a bunch of underclassmen having great college seasons and declaring, I wouldn't pass on a QB that slides to use because we have Prescott.

We still drafted Walsh after Aikman. I dont believe Prescott will be used as an excuse. I really like how you can give us the reality of the situation. Its very kind of you to take a break from your pro scouting and player development job to keep us all informed. Good thing too, some here were getting thier hopes up.

 

[Sydla]

We still drafted Walsh after Aikman. I dont believe Prescott will be used as an excuse. I really like how you can give us the reality of the situation. Its very kind of you to take a break from your pro scouting and player development job to keep us all informed. Good thing too, some here were getting thier hopes up.

Thank you. That kind of recognition is always appreciated!

 

[BrAinPaiNt]

The one big advantage that Prescott will have is that he can sit on the bench and learn for the next 2-4 years while getting in some occasional experience if/when Tony misses any play time due to injuries. The lack of pressure to be the starter immediately (well, other than by fans who will demand it after every Romo interception) will help reduce the chance of him becoming a bust because he will have time to learn, refine his skills and get used to the speed of the NFL.

Are you trying to say he will go from an Ole Miss education to a Harvard education QB wise? You smooth talker Jerry.

 

[Ken]

Staubach can say and feel whatever he likes. And you can believe him.

But the facts are HISTORY shows that the odds of a 4th round QB amounting to anything more than a backup QB in this league are largely against Prescott. That's my point.

But every individual player is different. Just because teams make dumb decisions to draft certain qbs and put them in horrible situations and they fail doesn't mean they all will at the same rate.

The case I keep making...it was obvious to me that Wilson was a better QB than RG III when the pick happened.

I also stated, even during his successful rookie season, that it would not last based on the high school offense he was running and the nature of how he played the position.

I give Dak,as does football outsiders, a higher percentage of success more than most 4th round and later qbs and I would rank him probably 3rd or 4th in qbs I would want in this class.

 

[kiheikiwi]

What I like/hope to see for Prescott is this. Yes, I wish we had a better QB coach to teach him, never been a fan of Wade Wilson. Romo credits David Lee as his mentor - who is now a college head coach.
Prescott is a smart dude, got his degree and his masters already. So he can process information. Will have time to sit and learn ala Romo. Think he can be the # 3 QB this year and be a sponge, We have the backup this year to be the bridge for the next season (or two). Prescott has the size, etc. intangibles, now can he learn to process the information and act on it. As a lot of people say, that is what determines who can play at the next level.
I think he has a good a chance as anyone.
If Romo can stay healthy for the next year or two, Prescott will have the chance to either become the heir apparent, or a quality backup behind whomever they draft next. But not a bad career for him whichever way it works out.
I'll be rooting for him.

 

[NorthwestDallas40]

Has anyone done a comparison of
dak to Russell Wilson? Seems like a best case and a reasonable comp physically.

 

[DeaconMoss]

Prescott has fans?

 

[aikemirv]

That analysis is nice but the reality is Prescott will never more anything more than a backup QB. Going further, I wouldn't use his drafting as an excuse to pass up on a higher ceiling guy in the next draft or two if the opportunity presents itself. Like for example, if next year, we are picking in the 20s and that draft turns into a strong QB draft with a bunch of underclassmen having great college seasons and declaring, I wouldn't pass on a QB that slides to use because we have Prescott.

I am not really sure you have a good basis for the idea that he will never amount to anything. His stats against SEC competition beg to differ with you. 29td -5int at 66% is not too shabby.

I am not against drafting someone next year if he does not look promising this year but I do think you have to at least give the guy a couple of years

 

[CWR]

Thank you. That kind of recognition is always appreciated!

Lol we shouldve been pro scouts and actually get paid for all the time we burn on this team.

 

[jnday]

Has anyone done a comparison of
dak to Russell Wilson? Seems like a best case and a reasonable comp physically.

I know from watching Dak at Mississippi State that he is not as accurate as Wilson. Dak compares better to Tebow, but he is more accurate.