Rosenthal: 11 Current Players on the HOF Bubble

[percyhoward]

With respect to what gets quarterbacks in the Hall of Fame, I think the weight is given more to actual yardage than passer ratings.

The list you're looking at reflects the fact that those QB were successful for long periods of time, so they piled up a lot of yards. But season-by-season, it's the whole picture (attempts, completions, yards, TD, INT) that decides the best passers -- not just yardage. The NFL combined those 5 elements and made passer rating to determine the winner of each season's passing title.

According to yards alone, Stafford would be seen as slightly better than Rodgers. Passer rating adds the other four elements to reveal the better passer, and more precisely to reveal that they're not even in the same league.

Avg rank YARDS
Rodgers 8th
Stafford 5th

Avg rank PASS RATING
Rodgers 5th
Stafford 18th

Rodgers already has seven top 10 seasons in passer rating so far, while Stafford has just two. Romo has eight, although his average rank (6th) is lower than Rodgers'.

These are all the QB with at least ten top 10 seasons in passer rating, adjusted for league sizes of different eras. They're all HOFers, or HOF locks.

Peyton Manning (15) 1999-2010, 2012-14
Tom Brady (13) 2001-07, 09-12, 2014-15
Joe Montana (12) 1980-85, 87-90, 93-94
Fran Tarkenton (11) 1964, 67-70, 72-77
Dan Marino (11) 1983-87, 90-92, 94-96
Sammy Baugh (10) 1937, 40-45, 47-49
Johnny Unitas (10) 1956-60, 63-67
Brett Favre (10) 1992, 94-97, 2001, 03, 04, 07, 09
Drew Brees (10) 2004-06, 08-09, 11-15

 

[KJJ]

If voters take into account who the players played for then you best believe an UDFA should get some extra points when those considerations are made

No one will ever convince me that the voters take into account the team a player plays for when casting votes for the HOF. That's complete BS! If you listen to FANS here they'll tell you that the HOF is biased against the Cowboys and if there was an ounce of truth to that Troy Aikman wouldn't be in the HOF because the committee members would have used his numbers against him. If there was a HOF bias against the Cowboys Irvin would still be on the outside looking in due to his drug and infidelity issues. There wasn't a Cowboys player more disliked than Irvin during his playing days. If you listen to FANS here they'll name several Cowboys players that should be in the HOF but some of those players aren't even in the Cowboys ROH. Good luck convincing the HOF voters that a player is HOF worthy who isn't even in their own teams HOF.

The HOF committee could care less if a player was drafted in the first round or not drafted at all, their induction will be based on how great an NFL career they had. Kurt Warner was an UDFA and despite all his accomplishments that include 3 SB appearances with one win, a league MVP award and holding the top 3 passing performances in SB history he's still waiting. He led one of the greatest offenses in history in the late 90s but because he was a late bloomer he's having to wait. Some here clearly can't seem to grasp what an elite honor it is to be voted into the HOF. I'm not saying there isn't some "player bias" amongst the committee because there is which is why Charles Haley had to wait but there's no team bias.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

they were but the record does show that with him the team wins, without him, it does not

That could say a bunch of things though. IT could say that they don't have anyone to replace him or even spell him. It could say that the offense could be the problem. It could say a bunch of things. Like if any other top 10 QB was here would they be able to run this offense?

 

[GIFTS86]

That could say a bunch of things though. IT could say that they don't have anyone to replace him or even spell him. It could say that the offense could be the problem. It could say a bunch of things. Like if any other top 10 QB was here would they be able to run this offense?

Peyton did it with the colts. And when he went down they struggled to win a game.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Peyton did it with the colts. And when he went down they struggled to win a game.

That's most teams. Most teams that lose their QB's struggle.

 

[GIFTS86]

That's most teams. Most teams that lose their QB's struggle.

Yeah I agree. Maybe I read that previous post wrong.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

If Romo never gets a ring I Think Romo is going to be one of the most interesting HOF candidates we will see when his time is up. I think its going to be a split vote each time. Some will won't deny his stats. Some won't take it into account because of the pass happy league he played in.

 

[StarBoyz83]

All on offense.

Romo, Witten, Bryant, Smith, Frederick, Martin, Elliott.

Crap, I need more. Does Bailey count?

Actually, all kidding aside, Witten's a lock. The rest have a ways to go to even get in the conversation being had about Romo.

Lol elliott.

 

[percyhoward]

If Romo never gets a ring I Think Romo is going to be one of the most interesting HOF candidates we will see when his time is up. I think its going to be a split vote each time. Some will won't deny his stats. Some won't take it into account because of the pass happy league he played in.

Then they aren't thinking, because it's not easier to rank in the top 10 now than it was in any other era. In fact, it's harder, because the league is bigger.

The benefit from playing in a QB-friendly era is that it makes all that era's players' raw ratings higher. But that doesn't give any one player an advantage over his peers, so it doesn't affect rankings at all. Forget the raw ratings, and focus on the yearly rankings. Everybody -- not just HOF voters -- needs to stop and think about this for a couple of seconds and take it into account.

Pass Rating
(raw career number)
Rodgers 104.1
Romo 97.1
Montana 92.3
Staubach 83.4

(average rank)
Staubach 4th
Montana 5th
Rodgers 5th
Romo 6th

 

[Insomniac]

There are 6 QBs from the Super Bowl era that were elected to the Hall of Fame despite not winning a championship. Since these players got in based on stats I wanted to see which stats were most important to the voters.

Sonny Jurgensen
Led league in Passing yards 5x, TDs 2x, Passer Rating 1x. (Note the Passer Rating stat was invented in 1971. Sonny led before it was invented.)
At retirement he ranked #4 in Yards, #3 in TDs and #2 in Passer Rating.
When elected to the Hall in 1983 he ranked #6 in Yards, #3 in TDs and #6 in Passer Rating.
Jurgensen never started a playoff game.

Fran Tarkenton
Led league in Passing yards 1x, TDs 1x, Passer Rating 0x.
At retirement #1 in Yards, #1 in TDs and #7 in Passer Rating.
When elected #1 in Yards, #1 in TDs and #16 in Passer Rating.


Dan Fouts
Led league in Passing yards 4x, TDs 2x, Passer Rating 0x.
At retirement #2 in Yards, #4 in TDs and #9 in Passer Rating.
When elected #2 in Yards, #6 in TDs and #13 in Passer Rating.

Jim Kelly
Led league in Passing yards 0x, TDs 1x, Passer Rating 1x.
At retirement #8 in Yards, #11 in TDs and #5 in Passer Rating.
When elected #11 in Yards, #11 in TDs and #5 in Passer Rating.

Dan Marino
Led league in Passing yards 5x, TDs 3x, Passer Rating 1x.
At retirement #1 in Yards, #1 in TDs and #6 in Passer Rating.
When elected #1 in Yards, #1 in TDs and #12 in Passer Rating.

Warren Moon
Led league in Passing yards 2x, TDs 0x, Passer Rating 0x.
At retirement #3 in Yards, #4 in TDs and #25 in Passer Rating.
When elected #4 in Yards, #5 in TDs and #38 in Passer Rating.

Obviously there's been a great deal of turnover among the voters in the 16 years since they elected Moon so the people now may have different standards for putting QBs in based on stats. The only QB that ranked higher in Passer Rating than Yards when elected is Kelly whose USFL stats are not included.

I'd also note that Ken Anderson led the league in passer rating 4 times and is not in the HOF and hasn't got much consideration.

 

[SDCowboy]

If Romo takes this team to a Super Bowl win, you'd have to immediately enshrine him, wouldn't you?

if Romo can take THIS team to a SB win, he deserves his own wing.

 

[mrmojo]

He could get in on stats but then so would Phillip Rivers. Too many great QBs in his era that he would need a championship or at least a memorable playoff moment, even D White had that .....Falcons 1980 playoff comeback.

 

[gimmesix]

Lol elliott.

Hey, I'm projecting. For all we really know right now, he could fall on his face. But based on where he was picked and the line he's playing behind, he's in a good position to put together a Hall of Fame career.

Of course, he could just turn out to have a career like the other running back on our roster taken with the fourth overall pick.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Then they aren't thinking, because it's not easier to rank in the top 10 now than it was in any other era. In fact, it's harder, because the league is bigger.

The benefit from playing in a QB-friendly era is that it makes all that era's players' raw ratings higher. But that doesn't give any one player an advantage over his peers, so it doesn't affect rankings at all. Forget the raw ratings, and focus on the yearly rankings. Everybody -- not just HOF voters -- needs to stop and think about this for a couple of seconds and take it into account.

Pass Rating
(raw career number)
Rodgers 104.1
Romo 97.1
Montana 92.3
Staubach 83.4

(average rank)
Staubach 4th
Montana 5th
Rodgers 5th
Romo 6th

When Matthew Stafford is throwing for 5k yards? Yes, it's far easier to put up stats now then it was in the 90s and prior.

 

[KJJ]

When Matthew Stafford is throwing for 5k yards? Yes, it's far easier to put up stats now then it was in the 90s and prior.

A lot of those yards by Stafford was due to having Calvin Johnson. The rules today have made it easier for a lot of QBs to put up yards.

 

[percyhoward]

The only QB that ranked higher in Passer Rating than Yards when elected is Kelly whose USFL stats are not included.

I'd also note that Ken Anderson led the league in passer rating 4 times and is not in the HOF and hasn't got much consideration.

Keep in mind when comparing yards to passer rating, that in most cases a player's career rating is artificially lowered by the seasons he isn't known for. That's usually (but not always) his first few and last few seasons, especially for players with long careers. Of course, the better you are, the longer you play. And the longer you play (and the earlier you start) the more likely that your passer rating suffers while your yards just keep piling up. It's the apples and oranges of productivity vs. efficiency. Quantity vs. quality.

If you were to press a HOF voter as to why he doesn't think Anderson should be in, the answer might be "anybody could have put up those numbers in Bill Walsh's system." But of course, Montana and Young are in, and Anderson won two passing titles without Walsh anyway. Another possible response is "Anderson never got a ring," but then you could point to the fact that he had 6 playoff starts, and posted a 102.4 rating in his last 5, but his team only won two of those games because his defense wasn't up to the challenge.

There's no good argument against Anderson, which is why he's generally regarded as the best eligible QB not in the Hall of Fame (especially with Stabler going in). Anderson had 7 top 10 seasons in passing yards, and ranked 7th all time in yards when he retired, so the yards were there. He's not in because of simple incompetence. Not enough members of the selection committee care enough to spend the time to think about it and do the right thing.

 

[CherBoyWade]

Philip Rivers as a best bet? I'm a Rivers fan, but no.. Not even close. He is in the same boat as Romo at best.

Never understand why Rivers seems to always get so much more respect than Romo around the league. Obviously biased but I think Romo has been the better player

 

[percyhoward]

When Matthew Stafford is throwing for 5k yards? Yes, it's far easier to put up stats now then it was in the 90s and prior.

Focus first on the difference between the raw number (the passer rating) and the ranking -- where that player's rating puts him relative to his peers. Then on the difference between yards and passer rating.

Total Passing Yards
(raw career numbers)
Stafford 25,976 (279/game)
Staubach 22,700 (199/game)

This is where you throw up your hands and say "It's not fair! It's so easy to put up stats in this pass-happy era. We all know Stafford doesn't compare to Staubach!" But you don't have to stop there, and give up on stats because they don't confirm what you believe to be true. You can eliminate the influence of era by comparing the players' performances to those of their same-era peers.

Average Yearly Rank - Yards
Staubach 4th
Stafford 5th

That makes a lot more sense, doesn't it?

But wait (in the words of the immortal Billy Mays), there's more. We still don't think Staubach and Stafford are even that close. Is it time to curse stats yet? Not quite, because not all stats are equal. We're looking at yards. That's only one element of passing. We're completely ignoring attempts, completions, TD, and INT. So let's put those in. It's called passer rating.

Not this one...
(raw career rating)
Stafford 85.8
Staubach 83.4

...but this one (to eliminate the influence of era)
Average Yearly Rank - Passer Rating
Staubach 4th
Stafford 18th

 

[percyhoward]

A lot of those yards by Stafford was due to having Calvin Johnson. The rules today have made it easier for a lot of QBs to put up yards.

Stafford's career passer rating was 83.6 (nothing more than average) during the years that he had Johnson.

Yards don't win games. These are 2015 numbers for the league.

OFFENSE
Top 10 QB -- Passing Yards
7.8 wins

Top 10 QB -- Passer Rating
10.2 wins

DEFENSE
Top 10 -- Passing Yards Allowed
8.3 wins

Top 10 -- Passer Rating Allowed
11.0 wins

 

[Section446]

His legacy will be that he's a really good regular season QB, not enough.